Iron ore: The scope of restricted production continues to expand, and the price of iron ore may usher in a cold winter.
Last week, due to the expansion and strengthening of national production restrictions, coupled with the impact of repeated epidemics and floods in Henan, iron ore futures prices fell all the way. As of the close of last Friday, the iron ore 09 contract closed at 1,027 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. In terms of spot, the PB fines at Qingdao Port reported 1,247 yuan/ton last Friday, down 73 yuan/ton from the previous week. SSF reported 875 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton, and Platts 62% index reported 181 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton. In terms of transactions, last week's iron ore main port had an average weekly transaction of 890,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous week. Both futures and spot prices had fallen to varying degrees, and market sentiment was insipid.
In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.871 million tons, an increase of 1.596 million tons from the previous week. Australia’s total shipments amounted to 17.398 million tons, an increase of 1.420 million tons from the previous week; of which, Australia’s shipments to China were 14.859 million tons, an increase of 967,000 tons from the previous week; Brazil’s total shipments to China were 7.473 million tons, an increase of 176,000 tons from the previous week. The total global shipping volume was 32.491 million tons, an increase of 3.133 million tons from the previous week. The total arrival of China's 45 ports was 16.223 million tons, a decrease of 8.75 million tons from the previous week; the total arrivals of the six northern ports were 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 1.758 million tons from the previous week.
In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 74.35%, a decrease of 1.30% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 16.80%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 86.83%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.21%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.67%; the profit rate of steel mills was 86.15%, an increase of 1.73% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 8.23%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3113 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 204,200 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel plants with a blast furnace operating rate of 57.04%, down 0.55% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 69.15%, an increase of 0.08% week-on-week; the utilization rate excluding eliminated capacity was 75.28%, down 11.25% from the same period last year; the profit rate pf steel mills was 77.91 %, an increase of 3.07% from the previous week. The data shows that the operating rate of the blast furnace is showing a downward trend. With the increase in the breadth and intensity of the production restriction policy, the operating rate has been compressed to a greater extent, which will cause the demand for iron ore to decline.
In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel statistics, the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across China was 12,813.42, a week-on-week decrease of 34.34; the average daily port congestion volume dropped by 35.42 to 248.82. Among which, Australian ores reported 6594.3, dropped 34.4; Brazil 3380.7, dropped 92.3; trade ore 6990.6 dropped 77.7; pellet 386.2 dropped 4.24; iron ore concentrates 975.6, increased 28.6; lump ore 2018.2, increased 19.4; coarse iron powder 9433.42, decreased 78.16; ships in port was 168, increased 16 (unit: ten thousand tons). With the full implementation of the policy of restricting crude steel production, iron ore began to accumulate inventory and returned to the historical median level. With the continuous deepening of production restrictions in the future, iron ore inventories are expected to continue to accumulate.
On the macro level, various overseas economic indicators continue to run at a high level. The PMI data of various countries maintains an eye-catching performance. Due to the repeated epidemics overseas, international demand continues to rely on Chinese exports. Monetary policy began to revise after a sharp turn. The implementation of the crude steel production restriction policy is highly probable and vigorous, and its direct purpose is to reduce iron ore consumption.
On the whole, the current black series market is destined to be dominated by policies. With the full implementation of the production restriction policy, the consumption of iron ore has been greatly curbed, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of iron ore has changed significantly. At present, the overall inventory of iron ore has changed from a decline to an increase, the upward momentum of future prices is insufficient, the spot price has fallen sharply, and the basis has been further restored to a certain extent. In the future, in the context of the gradual expansion of the scope and intensity of the overall production restriction, it is difficult for ore prices to have the driving force to rise, and the opportunities of going short positions of the distant futures contract are recommended.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (10 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;
2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;
3. Shipping data may change drastically;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
Rubber: The year-on-year inventory data is relatively low, and there is support for the lower price limit.
Last week, the center of gravity of rubber futures prices shifted upward, mainly driven by the surrounding market atmosphere and the increase in crude oil prices. At the same time, the renewed increase in the price of latex in Thailand also gave support to the price.
The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of July 30 was 196,750 tons (+2,864), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 177,910 tons (+640). The absolute level of warehouse receipts this year is at a low level in recent years, which provides strong support for the rubber price. As of July 18, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, and the absolute amount was also at a low level in recent years compared to the same period last year.
In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of July 29, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 61.12% (-1.63%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 57.33 (-1.32%). Demand is currently in the off-season, and the tire plant operating rate remains low, which is expected to improve in late August.
Opinion: In the early stage, the negative impact caused by the weakening of the previous month and the sharp decline in the price of latex in Thailand was basically reflected in the market one by one. With the improvement of the market sentiment and the rebound in the price of latex in Thailand, the price of rubber has stabilized. At present, the market price of RU09 is basically the same as that of domestic raw materials, reflecting that the price contradiction is not obvious. Domestic explicit inventory is relatively lower year-on-year and the impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic makes it difficult for short-term imports to increase significantly, and there is support on the supply side. The fundamentals of domestic demand have reached the low point of the off-season, but July-August is still the off-season of domestic demand, so there is limited room for the short-term tire operating rate to continue to rise. At the same time, the biggest pressure on tire factories now lies in the inventory of finished products. Only after the finished product inventory has effectively decreased in the later period, there may be more obvious demand for raw material procurement. The price of rubber is expected to stabilize in the short-term, but the recent spread of the domestic epidemic may also cause some obstacles to the demand side, and the price is expected to remain volatile.
Risk points: Domestic supply may increase substantially, demand may continue to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funds may be tight.
Crude oil: Oil prices rebounded to high levels, and crude oil fundamentals remain strong.
Last week, oil prices rebounded to a high level of more than 75 US dollars per barrel, and from the perspective of the inter-month spread performance, it has also basically been repaired. This also confirms our previous view that the plunge on July 19 was mainly caused by the long steeping before the expiration of the WTI August contract. This is more of a transaction factor than a fundamental factor. In the context of continuous inventory destocking, it is unlikely that the near-end inter-month spread will plummet to such a level. On the contrary, the plummet will bring good buying opportunities. The reason why we insist that oil prices have not yet changed its trend is mainly due to the current fundamental trend of crude oil. First of all, from the perspective of supply, OPEC is still cautious in increasing production. Increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month is a drop in the bucket for the current demand recovery. In the United States, the pace of resumption of shale oil production is still slow, mainly because shale oil listed companies maintain capital expenditure discipline and use more cash flow for shareholder returns and debt repayment. Although a small number of private equity shale oil companies are relatively aggressive in increasing production, they cannot completely hedge the impact of listed companies' conservative production increase strategies. Coupled with the high decay rate of old wells, U.S. crude oil production remains at around 12 million barrels per day. In addition, the timetable for Iran’s nuclear talks is still unclear, and it may be reopened after the inauguration of the new Iranian president on August 3. However, the market is still worried that Iran's nuclear talks will not be able to reach an agreement within this year, causing Iranian oil to return to the market in no time.
The second is the demand level. From the perspective of refined oil consumption, although the Delta virus has been raging around the world recently, the low fatality rate has not caused a run on medical resources, and major Western economies have not tightened epidemic prevention measures. Judging from the liquidity indicators such as Apple and Google, it is basically not affected too much, and the consumption trend of summer travel in Europe and the United States is still good. As some countries in the Asia-Pacific region have tightened their anti-epidemic measures, such as Indonesia, the impact of the epidemic is greater than that of Europe and the United States. But this is more reflected in the regional price difference Brent Dubai, that is, the west is strong and the east is weak, and the actual impact on demand is relatively limited, because the demand recovery in the Asia-Pacific region is relatively slow.
From the perspective of refinery consumption, from a global perspective, both refinery profits and refinery operating rates have maintained a relatively healthy trend. While the profits of refineries continue to be repaired, the operating rate of global refineries has steadily increased. In the context of weaker supply growth than demand recovery, global oil inventory depletion continues. The current crude oil inventory levels in Europe and the United States have been lower than the 5-year average for the same period. At present, nearly 80% of the global inventory of nearly 200 million barrels higher than normal is concentrated in China. Recently, China has adopted policy measures such as tightening quotas and releasing reserves to control crude oil imports, thereby affecting oil prices. However, we believe that under the background of stable terminal consumption and future large-scale refining and production, crude oil processing demand is still relatively strong, and China's crude oil inventories are expected to accelerate in the future.
Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures
Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or the epidemic will worsen more than expected..
Copper: The fall in the U.S. dollar and the renewed strength of crude oil have caused copper prices to fluctuate higher.
According to SMM, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of July 30 was between 71,225 and 72,665 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount for Standard-Grade Copper was between 250 and 350 yuan/ton. Last week, copper prices maintained a volatile upward pattern, and premiums and discounts still maintained higher quotations, showing that the sentiment of holders of supporting prices still exists.
Last week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate and the scale of bond purchases unchanged, which caused the US dollar to fall to a certain extent. Coupled with the fact that crude oil prices are showing a rebound again, these factors are more favorable conditions for copper prices. In terms of fundamentals, the TC price of imported mines has continued to rise to 57.65 US dollars/ton. Coupled with the impact of the release of reserves and copper scrap, the supply side may have a relatively negative impact on prices. But on the demand side, although there is currently no obvious replenishment action in inventory in the downstream, there will still be some demand if the price drops. In addition, the premium and discount quotations of holders are relatively high, coupled with the support of the new energy sector. Therefore, in general, although the fundamentals are not too strong, combined with favorable macro factors, it is expected that copper prices may maintain a strong pattern in the short term.
Medium and long term:
On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. After the Fed's meeting on interest rates in July, despite the fall in the U.S. dollar, the Fed still did not start to reduce the size of its current bond purchases. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, overall, the fundamentals currently maintain a relatively neutral attitude. However, the macro is relatively favorable to the copper price trend.
1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. Domestic delivery situation
PTA: The PTA maintenance was concentrated, and the processing cost hit a high level during the year.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet has little pressure on inventory accumulation, and the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.
(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish; TA liquidity tend to be tight and the inventory accumulation time node was postponed to September. However, the current PTA processing fee has been at a high level during the year, and risks need to be paid attention to.
(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.
1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓