Iron ore: The scope of restricted production continues to expand, and the price of iron ore may usher in a cold winter.

Last week, due to the expansion and strengthening of national production restrictions, coupled with the impact of repeated epidemics and floods in Henan, iron ore futures prices fell all the way. As of the close of last Friday, the iron ore 09 contract closed at 1,027 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. In terms of spot, the PB fines at Qingdao Port reported 1,247 yuan/ton last Friday, down 73 yuan/ton from the previous week. SSF reported 875 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton, and Platts 62% index reported 181 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton. In terms of transactions, last week's iron ore main port had an average weekly transaction of 890,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous week. Both futures and spot prices had fallen to varying degrees, and market sentiment was insipid.

In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.871 million tons, an increase of 1.596 million tons from the previous week. Australia’s total shipments amounted to 17.398 million tons, an increase of 1.420 million tons from the previous week; of which, Australia’s shipments to China were 14.859 million tons, an increase of 967,000 tons from the previous week; Brazil’s total shipments to China were 7.473 million tons, an increase of 176,000 tons from the previous week. The total global shipping volume was 32.491 million tons, an increase of 3.133 million tons from the previous week. The total arrival of China's 45 ports was 16.223 million tons, a decrease of 8.75 million tons from the previous week; the total arrivals of the six northern ports were 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 1.758 million tons from the previous week.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 74.35%, a decrease of 1.30% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 16.80%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 86.83%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.21%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.67%; the profit rate of steel mills was 86.15%, an increase of 1.73% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 8.23%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3113 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 204,200 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel plants with a blast furnace operating rate of 57.04%, down 0.55% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 69.15%, an increase of 0.08% week-on-week; the utilization rate excluding eliminated capacity was 75.28%, down 11.25% from the same period last year; the profit rate pf steel mills was 77.91 %, an increase of 3.07% from the previous week. The data shows that the operating rate of the blast furnace is showing a downward trend. With the increase in the breadth and intensity of the production restriction policy, the operating rate has been compressed to a greater extent, which will cause the demand for iron ore to decline.

In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel statistics, the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across China was 12,813.42, a week-on-week decrease of 34.34; the average daily port congestion volume dropped by 35.42 to 248.82. Among which, Australian ores reported 6594.3, dropped 34.4; Brazil 3380.7, dropped 92.3; trade ore 6990.6 dropped 77.7; pellet 386.2 dropped 4.24; iron ore concentrates 975.6, increased 28.6; lump ore 2018.2, increased 19.4; coarse iron powder 9433.42, decreased 78.16; ships in port was 168, increased 16 (unit: ten thousand tons). With the full implementation of the policy of restricting crude steel production, iron ore began to accumulate inventory and returned to the historical median level. With the continuous deepening of production restrictions in the future, iron ore inventories are expected to continue to accumulate.

On the macro level, various overseas economic indicators continue to run at a high level. The PMI data of various countries maintains an eye-catching performance. Due to the repeated epidemics overseas, international demand continues to rely on Chinese exports. Monetary policy began to revise after a sharp turn. The implementation of the crude steel production restriction policy is highly probable and vigorous, and its direct purpose is to reduce iron ore consumption.

On the whole, the current black series market is destined to be dominated by policies. With the full implementation of the production restriction policy, the consumption of iron ore has been greatly curbed, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of iron ore has changed significantly. At present, the overall inventory of iron ore has changed from a decline to an increase, the upward momentum of future prices is insufficient, the spot price has fallen sharply, and the basis has been further restored to a certain extent. In the future, in the context of the gradual expansion of the scope and intensity of the overall production restriction, it is difficult for ore prices to have the driving force to rise, and the opportunities of going short positions of the distant futures contract are recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (10 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The year-on-year inventory data is relatively low, and there is support for the lower price limit.

Last week, the center of gravity of rubber futures prices shifted upward, mainly driven by the surrounding market atmosphere and the increase in crude oil prices. At the same time, the renewed increase in the price of latex in Thailand also gave support to the price.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of July 30 was 196,750 tons (+2,864), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 177,910 tons (+640). The absolute level of warehouse receipts this year is at a low level in recent years, which provides strong support for the rubber price. As of July 18, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, and the absolute amount was also at a low level in recent years compared to the same period last year.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of July 29, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 61.12% (-1.63%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 57.33 (-1.32%). Demand is currently in the off-season, and the tire plant operating rate remains low, which is expected to improve in late August.

Opinion: In the early stage, the negative impact caused by the weakening of the previous month and the sharp decline in the price of latex in Thailand was basically reflected in the market one by one. With the improvement of the market sentiment and the rebound in the price of latex in Thailand, the price of rubber has stabilized. At present, the market price of RU09 is basically the same as that of domestic raw materials, reflecting that the price contradiction is not obvious. Domestic explicit inventory is relatively lower year-on-year and the impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic makes it difficult for short-term imports to increase significantly, and there is support on the supply side. The fundamentals of domestic demand have reached the low point of the off-season, but July-August is still the off-season of domestic demand, so there is limited room for the short-term tire operating rate to continue to rise. At the same time, the biggest pressure on tire factories now lies in the inventory of finished products. Only after the finished product inventory has effectively decreased in the later period, there may be more obvious demand for raw material procurement. The price of rubber is expected to stabilize in the short-term, but the recent spread of the domestic epidemic may also cause some obstacles to the demand side, and the price is expected to remain volatile.

Strategy: neutral

Risk points: Domestic supply may increase substantially, demand may continue to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funds may be tight.

Crude oil: Oil prices rebounded to high levels, and crude oil fundamentals remain strong.

Last week, oil prices rebounded to a high level of more than 75 US dollars per barrel, and from the perspective of the inter-month spread performance, it has also basically been repaired. This also confirms our previous view that the plunge on July 19 was mainly caused by the long steeping before the expiration of the WTI August contract. This is more of a transaction factor than a fundamental factor. In the context of continuous inventory destocking, it is unlikely that the near-end inter-month spread will plummet to such a level. On the contrary, the plummet will bring good buying opportunities. The reason why we insist that oil prices have not yet changed its trend is mainly due to the current fundamental trend of crude oil. First of all, from the perspective of supply, OPEC is still cautious in increasing production. Increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month is a drop in the bucket for the current demand recovery. In the United States, the pace of resumption of shale oil production is still slow, mainly because shale oil listed companies maintain capital expenditure discipline and use more cash flow for shareholder returns and debt repayment. Although a small number of private equity shale oil companies are relatively aggressive in increasing production, they cannot completely hedge the impact of listed companies' conservative production increase strategies. Coupled with the high decay rate of old wells, U.S. crude oil production remains at around 12 million barrels per day. In addition, the timetable for Iran’s nuclear talks is still unclear, and it may be reopened after the inauguration of the new Iranian president on August 3. However, the market is still worried that Iran's nuclear talks will not be able to reach an agreement within this year, causing Iranian oil to return to the market in no time.

The second is the demand level. From the perspective of refined oil consumption, although the Delta virus has been raging around the world recently, the low fatality rate has not caused a run on medical resources, and major Western economies have not tightened epidemic prevention measures. Judging from the liquidity indicators such as Apple and Google, it is basically not affected too much, and the consumption trend of summer travel in Europe and the United States is still good. As some countries in the Asia-Pacific region have tightened their anti-epidemic measures, such as Indonesia, the impact of the epidemic is greater than that of Europe and the United States. But this is more reflected in the regional price difference Brent Dubai, that is, the west is strong and the east is weak, and the actual impact on demand is relatively limited, because the demand recovery in the Asia-Pacific region is relatively slow.

From the perspective of refinery consumption, from a global perspective, both refinery profits and refinery operating rates have maintained a relatively healthy trend. While the profits of refineries continue to be repaired, the operating rate of global refineries has steadily increased. In the context of weaker supply growth than demand recovery, global oil inventory depletion continues. The current crude oil inventory levels in Europe and the United States have been lower than the 5-year average for the same period. At present, nearly 80% of the global inventory of nearly 200 million barrels higher than normal is concentrated in China. Recently, China has adopted policy measures such as tightening quotas and releasing reserves to control crude oil imports, thereby affecting oil prices. However, we believe that under the background of stable terminal consumption and future large-scale refining and production, crude oil processing demand is still relatively strong, and China's crude oil inventories are expected to accelerate in the future.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or the epidemic will worsen more than expected..

Copper: The fall in the U.S. dollar and the renewed strength of crude oil have caused copper prices to fluctuate higher.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of July 30 was between 71,225 and 72,665 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount for Standard-Grade Copper was between 250 and 350 yuan/ton. Last week, copper prices maintained a volatile upward pattern, and premiums and discounts still maintained higher quotations, showing that the sentiment of holders of supporting prices still exists.

Opinion:

short term:

Last week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate and the scale of bond purchases unchanged, which caused the US dollar to fall to a certain extent. Coupled with the fact that crude oil prices are showing a rebound again, these factors are more favorable conditions for copper prices. In terms of fundamentals, the TC price of imported mines has continued to rise to 57.65 US dollars/ton. Coupled with the impact of the release of reserves and copper scrap, the supply side may have a relatively negative impact on prices. But on the demand side, although there is currently no obvious replenishment action in inventory in the downstream, there will still be some demand if the price drops. In addition, the premium and discount quotations of holders are relatively high, coupled with the support of the new energy sector. Therefore, in general, although the fundamentals are not too strong, combined with favorable macro factors, it is expected that copper prices may maintain a strong pattern in the short term.

Medium and long term:

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. After the Fed's meeting on interest rates in July, despite the fall in the U.S. dollar, the Fed still did not start to reduce the size of its current bond purchases. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, overall, the fundamentals currently maintain a relatively neutral attitude. However, the macro is relatively favorable to the copper price trend.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Domestic delivery situation

PTA: The PTA maintenance was concentrated, and the processing cost hit a high level during the year.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet has little pressure on inventory accumulation, and the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish; TA liquidity tend to be tight and the inventory accumulation time node was postponed to September. However, the current PTA processing fee has been at a high level during the year, and risks need to be paid attention to.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿：压产范围不断扩大 铁矿价格或迎来寒冬

上周受到全国压产范围扩大、力度加强，叠加疫情反复、河南洪涝灾害影响，铁矿石期货一路向下，截至上周五收盘，铁矿09合约收于1027元/吨，周环比下跌97元/吨。现货方面，上周五青岛港PB粉报1247元/吨，较前周跌73元/吨。超特粉报875元/吨，跌55元/吨，普氏62%指数报181美元/吨，跌14美元/吨。成交方面，上周铁矿石主港周均成交89万吨，环比下降18万吨。期现价格均有不同程度的下跌，市场交投情绪一般。

供应方面，Mysteel澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2487.1万吨，环比增加159.6万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1739.8万吨，环比增加142.0万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1485.9万吨，环比增加96.7万吨；巴西发货总量747.3万吨，环比增加17.6万吨。全球发运总量3249.1万吨，环比增加313.3万吨；中国45港到港总量1622.3万吨，环比减少875.0万吨；北方六港到港总量为973.1万吨，环比减少175.8万吨。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率74.35%，环比上周下降1.30%，同比去年下降16.80%；高炉炼铁产能利用率86.83%，环比下降1.21%，同比下降7.67%；钢厂盈利率86.15%，环比增加1.73%，同比下降8.23%；日均铁水产量231.13万吨，环比下降3.22万吨，同比下降20.42万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率57.04%，环比下降0.55%，产能利用率69.15%，环比增加0.08%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为75.28%，较去年同期下降11.25%，钢厂盈利率77.91%，环比增加3.07%。数据显示，高炉开工率呈现下行趋势，随着压产广度和强度的增加，开工率出现较大幅度的压缩，对铁矿石需求将成下降态势。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45港进口铁矿库存12813.42，环比降34.34；日均疏港量248.82降35.42。分量方面，澳矿6594.3降34.4，巴西矿3380.7降92.3，贸易矿6990.6降77.7，球团386.2降4.24，精粉975.6增28.6，块矿2018.2增19.4，粗粉9433.42降78.16；在港船舶168增16条（单位：万吨）。随着粗钢压产政策的全面落地，铁矿开始出现累库，恢复到历史中位水平，随着后面压产的不断深入，铁矿库存有望持续累库。

宏观方面，海外各项经济指标继续高位运行；各国PMI数据继续亮眼表现；海外疫情的反复，从而继续依赖中国出口；货币政策转弯过急后开始回修；粗钢压产政策决心大、力度大，直接目的压低铁矿消费。

整体来看，目前黑色行情依然由政策主导，随着压产政策的全面落地，极大的遏制了铁矿的消费，使得铁矿石供需矛盾较之前有了较大变化，整体库存由降转增，期价向上动力不足，现货大幅下挫，基差进一步得到一定修复。后面，在整体压产范围和强度逐步扩大的背景下，矿价难以具备上涨的驱动力，推荐远月做空机会。

策略：

单边 ：中期偏空

跨品种：多10材空01铁矿、多01焦炭空01铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：库存同比偏低，价格下方有支撑

上周橡胶期价价格重心上移，主要在周边市场氛围的带动下以及原油价格上涨的推动下，同时，泰国胶水价格的重新补涨也给予胶价下方支撑。

国内交易所总库存截止7月30为196750吨（+2864），期货仓单量177910吨（+640），今年仓单绝对量水平处于近几年低位，对胶价下方有较强支撑。截至7月18日，青岛保税区库存延续小幅回落，绝对量同比也处于近些年的低位。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止7月29日，全钢胎企业开工率61.12%（-1.63%），半钢胎企业开工率57.33（-1.32%）。需求淡季。轮胎厂开工率维持低位，预计8月下旬将有所改善。

观点：前期因需求环比走弱以及泰国胶水价格大幅下滑带来的利空基本在盘面上逐一体现。随着市场氛围的好转以及泰国胶水价格的止跌反弹，胶价有所企稳。目前RU09盘面价格基本与国内原料价格持平，反映价格矛盾不明显。国内显性库存同比偏低叠加东南亚疫情影响，短期进口量大幅增加较为困难，供应端有支撑。国内需求基本面达到了淡季的低点位置，但7-8月份仍是国内的需求淡季，因此短期轮胎开工率继续回升的空间有限，同时轮胎厂当下最大的压力在于成品库存，后期须看到成品库存有效下降后，或才有较明显的原料采购需求。短期胶价有望企稳，但近期国内疫情扩散或对需求端也会产生一些阻碍，预计价格仍偏震荡。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：油价回升至高位，原油基本面依然偏强

上周油价再度回升至75美元/桶以上高位，而从月差表现来看，也已基本上得到修复，这也印证了我们此前的观点，即719暴跌主要由于WTI8月合约到期前多头踩踏导致，更多属于交易因素，而非基本面因素，在库存持续去化的背景下，近端月差不太可能如此暴跌至平水状态，反而由于暴跌带来很好的买入机会。我们坚持油价尚未转势的原因主要来自于目前原油的基本面趋势。首先从供给来看，欧佩克增产依然维持谨慎，逐月增产40万桶/日对于当前的需求复苏可以说是杯水车薪，而美国方面，页岩油复产节奏依然缓慢，主要是页岩油上市公司维持资本开支纪律，将更多现金流用于股东回报以及偿还债务，虽然少部分私募股权的页岩油公司增产相对激进，但也无法完全对冲上市企业保守增产策略的影响，叠加老井的高衰减率，美国原油产量依然维持在1200万桶/日上下。除此之外，伊朗核谈的时间表目前仍不清晰，可能会在8月3日伊朗新总统就职之后重新开启，但市场仍旧担忧伊朗核谈在年内无法达成一致，伊朗石油重返市场遥遥无期。其次是需求层面，从成品油消费来看，虽然近期Delta病毒在全球肆虐，但由于致死率不高并未造成医疗资源的挤兑，西方主要经济体均没有收紧防疫措施，而从苹果谷歌等流动性指标来看，也基本没有受到太大的影响，欧美夏季旅行出行消费趋势依然良好。亚太方面由于部分国家收紧了防疫措施如印尼等，因此疫情的影响要大于欧美，但这更多反映到了地区价差Brent Dubai上面，即西强东弱，且实际对于需求的冲击也相对有限，因为本身亚太地区需求复苏也相对缓慢。而从炼厂消费来看，从全球角度，不管是炼厂利润还是炼厂开工率均维持较为健康的趋势，炼厂利润持续修复的同时全球炼厂开工率稳步提升。在供应增长弱于需求复苏的背景下，全球石油库存去化依然在持续，当前欧美原油库存水平已经低于5年同期均值水平，目前全球比正常水平高出的近2亿桶库存近80%集中在中国，近期国内通过收紧配额、抛储等政策性手段来控制原油进口，进而影响油价，但我们认为目前在终端消费稳定叠加未来大炼化投产的背景下，原油加工需求依然较为旺盛，未来中国原油库存有望加速去化。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或疫情恶化超预期

铜：美元回落叠加原油再度走强 铜价震荡走高

现货情况：

据SMM讯，7月30日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于71,225元/吨至72,665元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价则是运行于250元/吨至350元/吨之间。上周铜价维持震荡上行格局，升贴水依然维持较高的报价。显示出持货商挺价情绪依旧存在。

观点：

短期：

上周，美联储利率决议维持基准利率及购债规模不变，这使得美元出现了一定回落。叠加原油价格也再度呈现出回升的情况，这些因素对于铜价而言均是较为有利的条件。而在基本面方面，进口矿TC价格则是持续走高至57.65美元/吨，叠加抛储以及废铜的影响，供应端对于价格影响或许相对负面，但在需求端，虽然目前下游并没有太过明显的补库动作，但若价格出现回落还是会有一些需求涌现，并且持货商升贴水报价也相对较高，还有新能源题材的支撑，故此总体而言，基本面状况虽不至太过强劲，但结合宏观方面的有利因素，预计铜价短时内或维持偏强格局。

中长期：

宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，在7月Fed议息会议后，美元出现回落，美联储仍然没有开始缩减当下购债规模。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前基本面维持相对中性的态度。不过宏观对于铜价走势则相对有利。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 国内交仓情况

PTA：PTA检修集中，加工费创年内高位

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表再度去库，快速累库节点推迟到9月，9月交割前无累库压力；PX8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨， TA流动性偏紧叠加累库节点后移至9月。但目前PTA加工费已处于年内高位，亦需注意风险。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX负荷情况。