Iron ore: The impact of the epidemic has increased, and risk aversion has increased.

Opinion and logic: Yesterday, both the open interest and trading volume of the iron ore 2109 contract shrank, and its price closed at 1,062.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton, or 1.97%. The open interest of the most-active iron ore 2201 contract rose while its trading volume experienced decline, and its price closed at 946 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton, or 0.42%. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,265 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, SSF reported 888 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton, and the spread between high and low-grade products was 377 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the port transactions totaled 1.445 million tons, and the transactions continued to pick up from the previous week.

Mysteel statistics: In August, 14 steel mills reduced production and implemented overhaul on equipment, which affected the output of 622,000 tons in August. Ding Liguo, chairman of Xintian Steel and Delong Group, said a few days ago that it is possible to participate in the development of Simandu iron ore. The "Hebei Province 2021 Air Pollution Comprehensive Treatment Work Plan" shows that in 2021, Handan will need to shut down some steel companies (capacity), of which Wu'an will shut down 17 small blast furnaces.

On the whole, the supply side of the external ore remained stable while the internal ore contracted, the domestic consumption side was significantly weaker, the inventory was at the median level over the years, and there was a certain inventory accumulation of expectations, which led to the reversal of the iron ore supply and demand structure. After the iron ore market was affected by the logic of strict crude steel production restrictions last week, it was also affected by the Politburo meeting last weekend. Starting this week, the market will be dominated by the logic of loosening crude steel production restrictions, and ore prices have stabilized after a sharp drop. According to surveys at this stage, the country-wide crude steel production restriction is still in progress in an orderly manner, and the supervisory authority is firm on the decision to implement the crude steel production restriction. Under strict production restrictions, excessively high ore prices will be difficult to maintain, and there is a high probability of weak operation in the future.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: cautiously bearish

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (10 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The recurrence of the epidemic caused worries, and the price of rubber pulled back from high.

On August 3, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,325 (-185) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,175 (-100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -175 yuan/ton (+285); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 55,674 (-4,990) lots, the short position was 84,013 (-5,185) lots, and the net short position was 28,339 (-195) lots.

On August 3, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,000 (-150) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,715 (-15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,705 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,650 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -339 (+142) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 23: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 196,750 (+2,864) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 177,910 (+640) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.05 (-0.5), cup lump 45.8 (-0.2), latex 46 (+0.5), RSS3 52.88 (-0.52).

As of Jul 29, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.12% (-1.63%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.33 (-1.32%).

Opinion: Due to concerns about the spread of the domestic epidemic, the ferrous and non-ferrous sectors and crude oil all declined sharply yesterday. At the same time, rubber prices were dragged down by the market sentiment, felling back from high yesterday. Domestic heavy-duty truck sales data in July continued to show weakness, but basically in line with market expectations. At present, due to the seasonal off-season in the market, domestic downstream tire factories maintain a short-term operating rate at a low level. After the off-season in August has passed, the operating rate will usher in a rebound, and there is limited room for continued decline. Therefore, the current focus may be on the supply side. Affected by the epidemic, we have seen fewer domestic arrivals, which is reflected in the continued decline in port inventory. As of last weekend, domestic port inventories continued to decline, and there may be limited room for rubber price correction.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API gasoline inventories fell more than expected.

The oil price fluctuated greatly yesterday. According to OPEC’s July export volume data and Kpler’s statistics, Saudi Arabia’s exports increased by about 800,000 barrels per day from the previous week, while exports from the UAE, Iraq, Angola and other countries increased by 150,000 to 200,000 barrels per day, and OPEC's overall export increase was between 1 million barrels and 1.5 million barrels per day on a week-on-week basis. However, due to the unexpected drop of nearly 500,000 barrels per day in Russian exports last month, the week-on-week increase in exports from the production-restricted alliance is about 600,000 barrels per day. However, this export increase is still relatively controllable. The recent market uncertainty is mainly due to the fact that in theory the rate of inventory destocking in July is higher than that in June, but the actual destocking is obviously not as good as expected from the data point of view. The current market concerns are reflected in two points: The first is that Iran may increase its efforts to smuggle crude oil. The second is that China may have released more crude oil reserves from SPR. However, since both of them are off-balance sheet supplies, it is difficult to monitor from the data level, which has caused major concerns in the market recently.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or the epidemic will worsen more than expected..

Copper: Copper prices fell due to the drag of crude oil.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market yesterday showed a rapid downward trend with the continuous inflow of imported copper. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 320 yuan/ton, but it was difficult to see a large amount of buying in the market. Subsequently, some holders quickly adjusted the price to a premium of 300-310 yuan/ton, but there were still very few inquiries. With the increasing eagerness to exchange for spot, the holders eagerly broke the premium of 300 yuan/ton and quickly reduced their quotations to around a premium of 270 yuan/ton. After the second trading session, the price reduction was difficult to stop temporarily, and the supply of goods with a premium of about 240 yuan/ton has flowed out, but the market has always been difficult to see good activity. High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper are also due to the influx of some brands such as Peruvian and ESOX into the market, resulting in the overall quotation also continuing to decline with Standard-Grade Copper. The price premium of High-Grade Copper fell from a premium of 330 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton, which was difficult to have a spread with Standard-Grade Copper, so there were few large transactions. The quotation of Hydro-Copper decreased from a premium of 200 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, which was mainly due to the price drag caused by the outflow of the MET brand. Downstream buying remained on-demand purchase when market prices had fallen slightly.

Opinion: Yesterday the US dollar index and US bond yields both showed a stable trend, and many companies in the US reported relatively good earnings performance, which boosted market risk sentiment to a certain extent. But on the other hand, due to the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of copper has been dragged down to a certain extent from the perspective of its industrial attributes and inflation expectations. However, since fundamental changes are still relatively limited at present, the current copper market may still be dominated by shocks.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. After the Fed's meeting on interest rates in July, despite the fall in the U.S. dollar, the Fed still did not start to reduce the size of its current bond purchases. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The energy and chemical sector continued to pull back from high, and the PTA processing fee dropped from a high level.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet has little pressure on inventory accumulation, and the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: In the context of the intensification of the epidemic, investors should take a wait-and-see attitude and wait for buying opportunities after the price correction.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿：疫情扰动加大，避险情绪增强

观点与逻辑：昨日铁矿石2109合约缩量减仓震荡，收于1062.5元/吨，涨20.5元/吨，涨幅1.97%。铁矿石2201主力合约缩量增仓震荡，收于946元/吨，涨4元/吨，涨幅0.42%。青岛港PB报1265元/吨，涨5元/吨，超特报888元/吨，涨2元/吨，高低品价差377元/吨。昨日港口累计成交144.5万吨，成交环比继续回暖。

Mysteel统计：8月有14家钢厂减产、检修，共影响8月产量62.2万吨。新天钢、德龙集团董事长丁立国日前表示，有可能参与西芒杜铁矿的开发。《河北省2021年大气污染综合治理工作方案》显示2021年邯郸市需要关停部分钢企（产能），其中武安市要关停17座小高炉。

整体来看，供给端外矿平稳内矿收缩，国内消费端走弱明显，库存处于历年中位水平，且存在一定累库预期，铁矿供需结构开始逆转。铁矿石上周在交易了粗钢严格限产逻辑之后，又受到上周末政治局会议的影响，本周开始交易粗钢压产放松的逻辑，矿价表现为大跌后企稳运行。现阶段根据调研显示，全国范围内的粗钢压产仍在有序持续推进中，粗钢压产的初心难以动摇，在严格的压产限产之下，过高的矿价难以维持，后续大概率偏弱运行。

策略：

单边：谨慎看空

跨品种：多10材空01矿、多01焦炭空01铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求表现，铁矿发运，疫情加重等

橡胶：疫情担忧，胶价冲高回落

3号，RU主力收盘13325（-185）元/吨，混合胶报价12175元/吨（-100），主力合约基差-175元/吨（+285）；前二十主力多头持仓55674（-4990），空头持仓84013（-5185），净空持仓28339（-195）。

3号，NR主力收盘价11000（-150）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1715（-15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1705美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1650（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-339（+142）元/吨。截至7月30日：交易所总库存196750（+2864），交易所仓单177910（+640）。

原料：生胶片50.05（-0.5），杯胶45.8（-0.2），胶水46（+0.50），烟片52.88（-0.52）。

截止7月29日，国内全钢胎开工率为61.12%（-1.63%），国内半钢胎开工率为57.33%(-1.32%）。

观点：对国内疫情扩散的担忧，昨天黑色、有色及原油均出现大幅下行，胶价受氛围拖累，冲高回落。国内7月份的重卡销售数据继续示弱，但基本符合市场预期，目前国内下游轮胎厂处于季节性淡季，短期开工率维持低位。8月份淡季过去之后，开工率将迎来回升，继续下降的空间也有限。因此，当下的重点或在供应端，受疫情的干扰，我们看到的是国内到港量较少，体现在港口库存上的持续下降，截至上周末，国内港口库存继续下行，胶价或回调空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API汽油库存降幅超预期

昨日油价波动幅度依然较大，从OPEC7月出口量数据来看，根据Kpler统计的数据来看，沙特出口环比增加约80万桶/日，阿联酋、伊拉克、安哥拉等国家出口环比增加15至20万桶/日，OPEC整体出口增量环比在100万桶至150万桶/日之间，但由于上月俄罗斯出口意外下滑近50万桶/日，因此限产联盟出口环比增量约在60万桶/日，这个出口增量依依然相对可控，近期的市场不确定主要在于，理论上7月份的库存去化速度要比6月份大，但实际从数据来看去库力度明显不及预期，目前市场担忧体现在两点，第一是伊朗可能增加了走私原油的力度，第二是中国可能从SPR中释放了更多的原油储备，但由于两者均属于表外供应，因此从数据层面上很难监测，这引发了近期市场较大的担忧。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或疫情恶化超预期

铜： 受原油拖累铜价回落

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场随着进口铜持续的流入，报价再度呈现快速下泄之势，早市平水铜始报于升水320元/吨市场难见大量买盘的情况下，部分持货商迅速调价至升水300-310元/吨询盘者依旧寥寥，随着急于换现情绪的递增，持货商急切地打破升水300元/吨关口，快速降至升水270元/吨左右，第二时段后，降价暂难止步，已有升水240元/吨左右的货源流出，市场交投始终难见活跃性。好铜和湿法铜也由于部分如秘鲁大板以及ESOX等品牌流入市场，整体报价也跟随平水铜持续下行，好铜自升水330元/吨降至270元/吨，与平水铜难有价差，少有大量成交。湿法铜自升水200元/吨以上降至升水150元/吨，主要由于在MET品牌的流出造成价格拖累，下游在盘面小幅下挫的情况下按需采购。

观点：昨日美元指数以及美债收益率均呈现维稳的态势，而美国方面诸多公司公布的财报表现相对较好，故此在一定程度上提振了市场的风险情绪，但是另一方面，由于原油价格的走弱，所以使得铜价无论是从其工业属性还是通胀预期的角度均受到一定拖累，不过基本面变化目前来看仍相对有限，因此当下铜或仍以震荡格局为主。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势也一度相对强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：能化板块持续回调，PTA加工费高位回落

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表再度去库，快速累库节点推迟到9月，9月交割前无累库压力；PX8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：疫情加剧背景下，观望，等待回调低位买入机会。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX负荷情况。