Iron ore: the expectation of production restriction has switched, and ore prices fluctuate weakly.

Opinion and logic: Yesterday, the open interest of iron ore 2109 contract shrank, while the trading volume witnessed a rise, and its price closed at 1,067 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan/ton, or 0.52%. Both the open interest and trading volume of the most-active iron ore 2201 contracts rose sharply, and its price closed at 941 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton, or 0.69%. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,262 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, SSF reported 888 yuan/ton, and the spread between high and low-grade products was 374 yuan/ton. A total of 860,000 tons were traded at the port yesterday.

Tangshan issued follow-up measures to reduce ozone pollution. From 22:00 on August 3 to 10:00 on August 10, nearly 20 steel mills sintering machines stopped production, ranging from 1-4 sets. Eight steel companies in the Heyuan area of Guangdong will shut down their production from 6:00 on August 4 to 2:00 on August 12, which is expected to affect the daily output of about 10,000 tons.

On the whole, the supply side of the external ore remained stable while the internal ore contracted, the domestic consumption side was significantly weaker, the inventory was at the median level over the years, and there was a certain inventory accumulation of expectations, which led to the reversal of the iron ore supply and demand structure. Affected by the market's different perceptions of crude steel production restriction, ore prices maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. According to surveys at this stage, the country-wide crude steel production restriction is still in progress in an orderly manner, and the supervisory authority is firm on the decision to implement the crude steel production restriction. Under strict production restrictions, excessively high ore prices will be difficult to maintain, and there is a high probability of weak operation in the future.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: cautiously bearish

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (10 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Port inventory continued its downward trend.

On August 4, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,505 (+180) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,225 (+100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -355 yuan/ton (-180); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 53,205 (-2,469) lots, ,the short position was 80,042 (-3,671) lots, and the net short position was 27,137 (-1,202) lots.

On August 4, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,265 (+265) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,725 (+10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,715 (+10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,655 (+5) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -565 (-225) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 23: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 196,750 (+2,864) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 177,910 (+640) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.20 (+0.15), cup lump 45.55 (-0.25), latex 46.5 (+0.50), RSS3 53.19 (+0.31).

As of Jul 29, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.12% (-1.63%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.33 (-1.32%).

Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices remained strong and volatile, and the spread between RU futures and spot prices widened. The price of raw materials in Thailand continued to rebound slightly, and the spread between latex and cup lump was eased to a certain extent. At present, due to the seasonal off-season in the market, domestic downstream tire factories maintain a short-term operating rate at a low level. After the off-season in August has passed, the operating rate will usher in a rebound, and there is limited room for continued decline. Therefore, the current focus may be on the supply side. Affected by the epidemic, we have seen fewer domestic arrivals, which is reflected in the continued decline in port inventory. As of last weekend, domestic port inventories continued to decline, coupled with the stabilization of raw material prices, rubber prices are under strong support. Supported by the warmer market sentiment, rubber prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: EIA crude oil inventories have increased more than expected, but the data is not completely negative.

Yesterday's EIA crude oil inventory data increased more than expected, and the expected difference reached nearly 6 million barrels, which deviated from API inventory. From the perspective of the driving factors behind, the main reason is that US crude oil exports have fallen sharply, with a week-on-week decline of nearly 600,000 barrels per day. But on the other hand, gasoline inventories have fallen by more than 5 million barrels per day, and terminal consumption is still strong. Therefore, the EIA data is not completely unilaterally negative, but it has aggravated the current market pessimism. The main negative factor for the recent oil price adjustment is still the continued deterioration of the Delta epidemic (especially in China). In addition, China's delay in issuing the third batch of import quotas has led to a shortage of quotas in some domestic refineries, and the market's concerns about China's relevant policies are also increasing.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: The US dollar strengthened, and copper prices continued to fluctuate downward.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market once again showed a stumbling downward trend yesterday. Due to the continuous inflow of imported copper and the rising proportion of outflows from CCC-P, ENM, and Peruvian, shipments for exchange of spot still become the mainstream of the market. At the beginning of the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported at a premium of 240-250 yuan/ton, but no one cared about the price in the market. Subsequently, the holders of Peruvian, ENM and other brands started the trend of leading the market to reduce prices, and directly quoted a premium of 220-230 yuan/ton, which forced the Standard-Grade Copper holders to adjust the price to less than 220 yuan/ton, but there are still hardly any buyers in the market. At the end of the first trading session, the quotations of Standard-Grade Copper and High-Grade Copper were almost the same at a premium of around 200 yuan/ton. After the second trading period, under the constant supply of goods, holders must have a price advantage in order to attract the attention of the market. Subsequently, the quotation of a premium of 200 yuan/ton was broken, and the price fell directly to a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton, which made the transaction slightly improved. High-Grade Copper maintained no spread with Standard-Grade Copperintraday. The continuous inflow of imported sources has led to the outflow of various brands of Hydro-Copper. Its quotations had fallen all the way, and there were hardly any signs of stopping the decline, decreasing from the highest UMMC quotation in the morning market of a premium of 170-180 yuan/ton the lowest price which below 100 yuan in the late afternoon session. Under the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, the downstream continued to hold a wait-and-see attitude, and there was no large-scale purchase behavior.

Opinion: After the Fed officials released hawkish comments yesterday, the U.S. dollar has risen, while crude oil prices have continued to fall. This is a relatively unfavorable factor for copper prices. Therefore, the price of copper has also fluctuated downward, but the decline is still limited. The fundamental changes are relatively limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in the premium and discount quotations of the holders after the price declines. It is expected that the current overall copper price is still dominated by shocks.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load again, and PX supply pressure has decreased.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet experienced destocking again, the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September, and there will be no pressure on inventory accumulation before delivery in September; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿：压产预期切换，矿价震荡偏弱

观点与逻辑：昨日铁矿石2109合约放量减仓震荡，收于1067元/吨，涨5.5元/吨，涨幅0.52%。铁矿石2201主力合约放量增仓震荡，收于941元/吨，跌6.5元/吨，跌幅0.69%。青岛港PB报1262元/吨，跌3元/吨，超特报888元/吨，平，高低品价差374元/吨。昨日港口累计成交86万吨。

唐山发布臭氧污染后续减排措施，8月3日22时至10日10时近20家钢厂烧结机分别停产1-4台不等。广东河源地区8家钢企将于8月4日6时-8月12日2时停电停产，预计日均影响产量1万吨左右。

整体来看，供给端外矿平稳内矿收缩，国内消费端走弱明显，库存处于历年中位水平，且存在一定累库预期，铁矿供需结构开始逆转。受市场对粗钢压产认知不同的影响，矿价短期维持震荡格局。现阶段根据调研显示，全国范围内的粗钢压产限产仍在有序持续推进中，粗钢压产的初心难以动摇，在严格的政策执行之下，过高的矿价难以维持，后续大概率偏弱运行。

策略：

单边：谨慎看空

跨品种：多10材空01矿、多01焦炭空01铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求表现，铁矿发运，疫情加重等

橡胶：港口库存延续下降趋势

4号，RU主力收盘13505（+180）元/吨，混合胶报价12225元/吨（+100），主力合约基差-355元/吨（-180）；前二十主力多头持仓53205（-2469），空头持仓80.42（-3671），净空持仓27137（-1202）。

4号，NR主力收盘价11265（+265）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1725（+10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1715美元/吨（+10），印尼标胶1655（+5）美元/吨。主力合约基差-565（-225）元/吨。

截至7月30日：交易所总库存196750（+2864），交易所仓单177910（+640）。

原料：生胶片50.20（+0.15），杯胶45.55（-0.25），胶水46.5（+0.50），烟片53.19（+0.31）。

截止7月29日，国内全钢胎开工率为61.12%（-1.63%），国内半钢胎开工率为57.33%(-1.32%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价维持偏强震荡，RU期现价差有所拉大。泰国原料价格延续小幅反弹的格局，胶水与杯胶的价差矛盾得到了一定的缓和。目前国内下游轮胎厂处于季节性淡季，短期开工率维持低位。8月份淡季过去之后，开工率将迎来回升，短期继续下降的空间有限。因此，当下的重点或在供应端，受疫情的干扰，我们看到的是国内到港量较少，体现在港口库存上的持续下降，截至上周末，国内港口库存继续下行，叠加原料价格的企稳，下方支撑较强，在市场氛围偏暖支撑下，胶价有望延续偏强震荡。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：EIA原油库存增幅超预期，但数据并非完全利空

昨日EIA原油库存数据超预期增加，预期差达到近600万桶，且与API库存出现背离，从背后的驱动因素来看，主要是美国原油出口降幅较大，周环比下降近60万桶/日，但另外一方面，汽油库存降幅超过500万桶/日，终端消费依然强劲，因此EIA数据并非完全单边利空，但加重了目前市场的悲观情绪，近期油价调整的主要利空因素依然是Delta疫情的持续恶化（尤其是在国内），此外中国第三批进口配额迟迟没有发放，已经导致部分国内炼厂出现了配额紧缺的情况，市场对于中国相关政策的担忧也在持续增加。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：美元走强 铜价持续震荡走低

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场再次显现踩踏式下坠态势。由于进口铜的持续流入，且在CCC-P及ENM、秘鲁大板等流出占比上升的前提下，出货换现抢跑道依然成为市场主流。早市盘初平水铜始报于升水240-250元/吨后市场无人问津后，秘鲁大板以及ENM等品牌持货商开启了引领市场降价调价的风潮，直接报价升水220-230元/吨令平水铜持货商被迫调价至升水220元/吨以下，依然难有接盘者，第一时段末，平水铜及好铜几乎报价一致于升水200元/吨附近。第二时段后，在不断涌出的货源下，持货商必须要有价格优势才能得以吸引市场的关注度，升水200元/吨一旦打破，直接降至升水180-190元/吨，成交才略有起色。好铜日内保持与平水铜无价差。试图以此价格优势抢占换现成交先机。差铜湿法铜也在进口货源的持续流入下各种参差不齐的品牌都有流出，报价一路下移，难有止跌迹象，从早市最高的UMMC在升水170-180元/吨，直至午市尾盘最低已跌破升水百元，下游买涨不买跌的情绪下，持续表现观望态势，并未大量采

观点：昨日在美联储官员释放了偏鹰派的言论之后，美元出现走高的情况，同时原油价格持续回落，这对于铜价而言，均是相对不利的因素。因此铜价也出现了震荡下行的情况，不过回落幅度仍算有限。而基本面变化则是相对有限，建议关注在价格回落后，持货商升贴水报价的变动情况。预计目前铜价整体仍以震荡格局为主。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势也一度相对强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：浙石化再度降负，PX供应压力回落

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表再度去库，快速累库节点推迟到9月，9月交割前无累库压力；PX8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX负荷情况。