Iron ore: Demand continues to weaken, and prices fluctuate downward.

Opinion and logic: Yesterday, the open interest of iron ore 2109 contract shrank, while the trading volume witnessed a rise, and its price closed at 1,007 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan/ton, or 4.78%. Both the open interest and trading volume of the most-active iron ore 2201 contracts rose sharply, and its price experienced a decline, closing at 888.5 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton, or 4.72%. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,212 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, SSF reported 825 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan/ton, and the spread between high and low-grade products was 387 yuan/ton. A total of 830,000 tons were traded at the port yesterday.

According to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in late July, the average daily pig iron output of key steel enterprises was 2.3937 million tons, a decrease of 1.07% from the previous week. According to the statistics of the Iron and Steel Association, the total output of the five major building materials commonly used in construction this week was 10.072 million tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from the previous week. The supervisory authority of Chongqing stated to focus on monitoring the prices of iron ore, steel, coal, etc., and to investigate and punish illegal activities such as price bidding and monopoly in accordance with the law.

On the whole, the supply side of the external ore remained stable while the internal ore contracted, the domestic consumption side was significantly weaker, the inventory was at the median level over the years, and there was a certain inventory accumulation of expectations, which led to the reversal of the iron ore supply and demand structure. The current market returns to the trading logic of restricting crude steel production. According to surveys at this stage, the country-wide crude steel production restriction is still in progress in an orderly manner, and the supervisory authority is firm on the decision to implement the crude steel production restriction. Under strict production restrictions, excessively high ore prices will be difficult to maintain, and there is a high probability of weak operation in the future.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: cautiously bearish

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (10 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)s

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Raw material prices continued to rebound, and cost support remained.

On August 5, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,385 (-120) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,275 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -235 yuan/ton (+120); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 49,668 (-3,537) lots, ,the short position was 76,246 (-4,096) lots, and the net short position was 26,578 (-559) lots.

On August 5, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,130 (-135) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,725 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,715 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,695 (+40) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -165 (+400) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 23: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 196,750 (+2,864) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 177,910 (+640) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.4 (+0.2), cup lump 45.75 (+0.2), latex 47 (+0.5), RSS3 53.62 (+0.43).

As of Jul 29, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.12% (-1.63%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.33 (-1.32%).

Opinion: The price of rubber futures weakened somewhat yesterday, and the overall price this week showed a volatile pattern. The small spread of the domestic epidemic has increased concerns about demand and the decline in crude oil prices, resulting in a weak market sentiment. However, the fundamentals of rubber itself have improved in the short term, which has supported the price. Yesterday, the price of raw materials in Thailand continued to rebound slightly, and the spread between latex and cup lump was further eased. The current demand is weak, but the stabilization of raw material prices and the continued decline in domestic port inventories have still supported rubber prices, and it is expected that there is limited room for adjustment.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Lacey was elected President of Iran, and there is still no specific timetable for the return of Iranian oil.

The recent negative factors affecting the oil market mainly come from two aspects. One is the spread of the epidemic, especially the multiple outbreaks in China. Some cities in East China, such as Nanjing and Yangzhou, have suspended some public transportation, for example buses and taxis, which will have a negative impact on China's oil consumption in the short term. And because East China is the region with the largest consumption of refined oil in China, some institutions have predicted that China's consumption will drop by about 10% month-on-month in August. However, whether there will be such a significant impact on demand depends mainly on whether the domestic epidemic can be controlled quickly. If it is similar to the situation of the previous South China epidemic, then the suppression of demand may only be an impulsive effect.

The second is China's current quota policy. Taking into account factors such as carbon neutrality, taxation and market fairness, China has tightened crude oil import quotas and refined oil export quotas this year, and the "big import and big export volume" model of oil import and export will be more inclined to internal circulation. But as a result, the internal competition among domestic refineries has intensified, and private refineries will bear the brunt. At present, the operating rate of independent refineries in Shandong has dropped by nearly 10% compared to a month ago. Zhejiang Petrochemical has also recently reduced its installation load due to lack of import quotas, and recently applied for temporary quotas to the Ministry of Commerce together with Sheng Hong Company. The current quota issue has become the biggest bottleneck restricting China's crude oil procurement. However, we believe that there are doubts about the continuity of the negative factors in these two aspects. If the domestic epidemic is quickly controlled and the Ministry of Commerce issues temporary quotas sooner, the market's negative sentiment will be significantly eased.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: The market awaits non-agricultural data, and copper prices maintain a volatile pattern.

Spot: According to SMM news, today's quotations are still showing a declining trend, and High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper continue to maintain a pattern of almost no price difference. At the beginning of the morning session, Standard-Grade Copperand High-Grade Copper consistently quoted at a premium of around 150 yuan/ton. Not long afterwards, -P and ENM took the lead in quoting a premium of 130-140 yuan/ton, which forced the price of Standard-Grade Copper to be reduced to a premium of 120 yuan/ton. After 10 o'clock, the stampede quotation continues. The quotation of Standard-Grade Copper has reached a premium of 100-110 yuan/ton, and the price of High-Grade Copper following its trend to quote at a premium of 120-130 yuan/ton. During the first trading period, the market only heard the quotations but had little intention to trade. The supply and demand sides remained deadlocked until the second trading period. After that, some holders tried to break the 100-yuan premium to attract buyers' attention, which eventually attracted bargain hunters, and the 100-yuan premium was able to be held. The spot price in late afternoon trading remained stable at a premium of 120 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of the epidemic on logistics, the performance of Hydro-Copper and Low-Quality Copperwas poor. Their quotations have dropped from around 80 yuan/ton in the morning session to around 50 yuan/ton in the afternoon session. Although the market price has fallen by around 500 yuan/ton, downstream buying still remains stagnant, especially the entry of downstream companies in the Jiangsu area has been significantly hindered.

Opinion: Yesterday US Treasury yields continued to show a rebound pattern, but the US dollar index showed limited changes. The continued strength of US stocks has boosted market risk sentiment to a certain extent, while copper prices have gradually stabilized in the process. However, as far as the fundamentals are concerned, the continued rise in TC prices has put pressure on copper prices from the supply side. However, the current inventory is still destocked, so under such circumstances, it is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate. Investors can pay attention to the results of the evening non-agricultural data.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Crude oil drives down the cost, investors can pay attention to the crude oil quota of Zhejiang Petrochemical.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet experienced destocking again, the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September, and there will be no pressure on inventory accumulation before delivery in September; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and wait for the callback of the processing fee..

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿：需求持续走弱，价格震荡下行

观点与逻辑：昨日铁矿石2109合约放量减仓下行，收于1007元/吨，跌50.5元/吨，跌幅4.78%。铁矿石2201主力合约放量增仓下行，收于888.5元/吨，跌44元/吨，跌幅4.72%。青岛港PB报1212元/吨，跌50元/吨，超特报825元/吨，跌63元/吨，高低品价差387元/吨。昨日港口累计成交83万吨。

据中钢协最新数据显示，7月下旬，重点钢企生铁日均产量239.37万吨，环比下降1.07%。钢联五大材本周产量合计1007.2万吨，环比增0.36万吨。重庆：重点做好对铁矿石、钢铁、煤炭等价格监测，依法查处哄抬价格、垄断等违法行为。

整体来看，供给端外矿平稳内矿收缩，国内消费端走弱明显，库存处于历年中位水平，且存在一定累库预期，铁矿供需结构开始逆转。当前市场重回粗钢压产的交易逻辑，现阶段根据调研显示，全国范围内的粗钢压产限产仍在有序持续推进中，粗钢压产的初心难以动摇，在严格的政策执行之下，过高的矿价难以维持，后续大概率偏弱运行。

策略：

单边：谨慎看空

跨品种：多10材空01矿、多01焦炭空01铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求表现，铁矿发运，疫情加重等

橡胶：原料价格延续反弹，成本支撑尚存

5号，RU主力收盘13385（-120）元/吨，混合胶报价12275元/吨（0），主力合约基差-235元/吨（+120）；前二十主力多头持仓49668（-3537），空头持仓76246（-4096），净空持仓26578（-559）。

5号，NR主力收盘价11130（-135）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1725（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1715美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1695（+40）美元/吨。主力合约基差-165（+400）元/吨。

截至7月30日：交易所总库存196750（+2864），交易所仓单177910（+640）。

原料：生胶片50.4（+0.2），杯胶45.75（+0.2），胶水47（+0.50），烟片53.62（+0.43）。

截止7月29日，国内全钢胎开工率为61.12%（-1.63%），国内半钢胎开工率为57.33%(-1.32%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价有所走弱，本周价格总体呈现震荡格局。国内疫情零星扩散对于需求的担忧以及原油价格的回落，使得市场氛围偏弱，但橡胶自身基本面短期有所好转，带来价格受支撑。昨天泰国原料价格延续小幅反弹的格局，胶水与杯胶的价差矛盾进一步缓和。当下需求偏弱，但原料价格的企稳以及国内港口库存持续下滑，橡胶下方仍有支撑，预计调整空间有限。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：莱西当选伊朗总统，伊朗石油回归仍无具体时间表

近期影响油市的利空因素主要来自两个方面，其一是疫情的扩散，尤其是国内疫情多点爆发，华东部分城市如南京、扬州等已经暂停了部分公共交通，如公交和出租车等，这对于短期中国石油消费将产生负面影响，且由于华东地区是中国成品油消费最大的地区，已有机构预测8月中国消费环比下降约10%，不过是否对需求产生如此显著冲击主要取决于国内疫情能否得到较快控制，如果类似于之前华南疫情的情况，那么对需求的抑制可能只是脉冲性的影响。其二是目前中国的配额政策，考虑到碳中和、税收以及市场公平性等因素，今年以来国家收紧了原油进口配额以及成品油出口配额，石油进出口“大进大出”的模式会更加倾向于内循环，但如此一来，国内炼厂的内卷明显加剧，而民营炼厂将首当其冲，目前山东独立炼厂开工率已经相比一个月前下滑近10%，浙石化近期也由于缺乏进口配额降低了装置负荷，并与盛虹一起近期向商务部申请了临时配额，当前配额问题已经成为制约中国原油采购的最大瓶颈。但我们认为这两个方面利空的持续性都存在疑问，如果国内疫情得到快速控制，叠加商务部较快下发临时配额，市场利空情绪将会明显缓和。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜： 市场静候非农数据 铜价维持震荡格局

现货方面：据SMM讯，今日报价依旧呈现一路滑坡态势，并且好铜与平水铜继续保持几无价差的格局。早市盘初，平水铜与好铜报价一致于升水150元/吨左右，不多久，-P及ENM率先以130-140元/吨的升水示人，平水铜被迫降至升水120元/吨一线，10点以后，踩踏式报价继续进行中，平水铜已出现升水100-110元/吨的报价，好铜则紧追之后报价于升水120-130元/吨，第一节交易时段，市场仅闻报价声难闻成交意向，供需双方僵持至第二节交易时段后，一度有个别持货商试图打破百元升水关口吸引买家关注度，终引来了逢低入市者，百元升水得以守住，午市尾盘现货升水稳于升水120元/吨一线。由于疫情对物流的影响与关联，湿法铜与差铜表现僵持，自早市的升水80元/吨左右降至午市的升水50元/吨左右，尽管盘面跌幅在500元/吨左右，但下游保持驻足，尤其是江苏地区的下游企业入市受阻明显。

观点：昨日美债收益率持续呈现反弹格局，不过美元指数则是变化有限。美股持续强劲，这在一定程度上提振了市场的风险情绪，铜价则是在此过程中逐渐企稳，不过目前就基本面而言，TC价格持续回升对铜价自供应端产生一定压力，但目前库存仍在去化，因此在这样的情况下，预计铜价依旧将会维持震荡格局，关注晚间非农数据的结果。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势也一度相对强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：原油带动成本回落，关注浙石化原油配额问题

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表再度去库，快速累库节点推迟到9月，9月交割前无累库压力；PX8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待加工费压缩回调。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX负荷情况。