Iron ore: Market expectations and reality have weakened simultaneously, and futures and spot prices have generally fallen.

Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated downwards. As of the close of last Friday, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 895 yuan/ton, a week-on-week drop of 27 yuan/ton, or 2.93%. In terms of spot, the PB fines at Qingdao Port reported 1,242 yuan/ton last Friday, down 94 yuan/ton from the previous week. SSF reported 863 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton, and Platts 62% index reported 171.2 US dollars/ton, down 9.3 US dollars/ton. In terms of transactions, the average daily transaction of iron ore at main ports last week was 1.13 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the previous week. Both futures and spot prices fell to varying degrees, and transactions rebounded slightly.

In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.724 million tons, a decrease of 147,000 tons from the previous week; the total shipment from Australia was 16.908 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, Australia's shipment to China was 13.401 million tons, a decrease of 1.458 million tons from the previous week; Brazil's total shipment was 7.816 million tons, an increase of 343,000 tons from the previous week. The total global shipping volume was 31.257 million tons, a decrease of 1.234 million tons from the previous week; the total arrival of China’s 45 ports was 22.166 million tons, an increase of 5.943 million tons. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports was 11.455 million tons, an increase of 1.724 million tons from the previous week. Global shipments dropped slightly on a week-on-week basis. The overall performance of external mines on the supply side was stable, while internal mines contracted slightly.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 74.61%, an increase of 0.26% from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 85.73%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.11%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.03%; the profit rate of steel mills was 87.88%, a week-on-week increase of 1.73%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.36%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.2819 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 29,500 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 240,300 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 57.18%, an increase of 0.14% week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate was 69.27%, an increase of 0.11% week-on-week; the utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity was 75.4%, down 11.71% from the same period last year; the profit rate of steel mills was 77.3%, down 0.61% week-on-week; the average daily port congestion volume increased by 355,500 tons to 2.8437 million tons. The operating rate of blast furnaces increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, the average daily molten iron continued to decline, and the demand for iron ore continued to weaken.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across China was 12.6393 million tons, a week-on-week drop of 1.7412 million tons; the average daily port congestion volume increased by 355,500 tons to 2.8437 million tons. Among which, Australian ore 6392.7 dropped 201.61, Brazil ore 3457.34 increased 76.63, trade ore 7006.2 increased 15.6, pellets 384.08 decreased 2.12, iron ore concentrates 940.17 decreased 35.39, lump ore 1912.64 decreased 105.6, coarse iron powder 9402.41 decreased 31.01. The number of ships in the port was 192, an increase of 24. The port inventory is at the historical median level, and there is still room for further optimization of the variety structure.

On the whole, the supply side of the external ore remained stable while the internal ore contracted, the domestic consumption side was significantly weaker as a result of the impact of the crude steel production restriction and the epidemic, the inventory was at the median level over the years, and there was a certain inventory accumulation of expectations, which led to the reversal of the iron ore supply and demand structure. Under strict production restrictions, excessively high ore prices will be difficult to maintain, and there is a high probability of weak operation in the future.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the mid-term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of the nearby futures contract of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Demand rebounded on a week-on-week basis, and rubber prices continued to rebound.

Last week, rubber futures prices continued to rebound. With the continued rebound in overseas Thai raw material prices, the support of the lower limit of rubber prices is strong. At the same time, after domestic demand is close to a low point, there is an expectation of a rebound in the later period. Coupled with the continued decline in domestic port inventory, the overall supply and demand may improve month-on-month. The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of August 6 was 201,150 tons (+4400), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 181,810 tons (+3900). With the rebound of domestic raw materials and the rise in market prices, warehouse receipts continued to rise last week. As of August 1, due to limited arrivals, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, and the absolute amount was also at a low level in recent years compared to the same period last year.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of August 5, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 62.68% (+1.56%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 59.42 (+2.09%). In the off-season of demand, the tire factory's operating rate is still insufficient to recover. Last week, the operating rate rebounded due to the production of some snow tires. In terms of seasonality, in late August, the operating rate is expected to usher in a seasonal improvement.

Opinion: The recent upward logic of the rubber market mainly comes from the repair of the previous decline. On the one hand, after the price of raw materials in overseas Thai production areas plummeted, the price of latex rebounded again to repair the spread between it and cup lump. On the other hand, after the domestic downstream tire factory's operating rate fell, the low operating rate rebounded due to the rebound in overseas snow tire production orders. At the same time, the later period will also usher in the seasonal peak consumption season, and the operating rate is expected to rebound further, which will bring about an improvement in rubber supply and demand. After the current price correction, pay more attention to the upward pressure in the later period. RU mainly focuses on the arbitrage window for RSS3. Calculated from the price of RSS3 last weekend, the price of 13,850 yuan/ton is already facing import pressure. If the price of raw materials cannot rise sharply in the later period, it will limit the upward space of the rubber price market. In addition, RU needs to pay attention to the market's delivery profit. Once profits continue to expand, it will attract the intervention of hedging orders. At present, the RU non-standard spread has not significantly widened, and it is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate strongly next week.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risk points: Domestic supply may increase substantially, demand will continue to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funds may be tight.

Crude oil: The epidemic and tight import quotas are negative for oil prices in the short term.

The recent negative factors affecting the oil market mainly come from two aspects. The first is the spread of the Delta epidemic, especially the outbreak of domestic epidemics in many places. Some cities in East China, such as Nanjing and Yangzhou, have suspended public transportation, such as airplanes, buses, and taxis, which will have a negative impact on China's oil consumption in the short term. And because East China is the region with the largest consumption of refined oil in China, some institutions have predicted that China's consumption will drop by about 10% month-on-month in August. From the perspective of traffic congestion index, such as the hot spots of the epidemic, the congestion index of Nanjing and Yangzhou dropped by more than 50%. However, whether this has such a significant impact on demand mainly depends on whether the domestic epidemic can be controlled quickly. If it is similar to the situation of the previous South China epidemic, then the suppression of demand may only be an impulsive effect. However, if the epidemic continues to spread and the number of new infections remains high, it will suppress the demand for the "Golden September, Silver October" travel peak seasons in the future. However, we believe that the epidemic can be controlled in a relatively short period of time and there will be no large-scale spread.

The second is China's current oil import and export policy. Taking into account factors such as carbon neutrality, taxation and market fairness, China has tightened crude oil import quotas and refined oil export quotas this year, and the "big import and big export" model of oil import and export will be more inclined to internal circulation. But as a result, the internal competition among domestic refineries has intensified, and private refineries will be the most affected. At present, the operating rate of independent refineries in Shandong has dropped by nearly 10% compared to a month ago. Zhejiang Petrochemical has also recently reduced its installation load due to lack of import quotas, and recently applied for temporary quotas to the Ministry of Commerce together with Sheng Hong Company. The current quota issue has become the biggest bottleneck restricting China's crude oil procurement. However, if the Ministry of Commerce issues temporary quotas to the two large private refineries, plus the recent signing of a crude oil import commitment letter between Shandong Refinery and the government, it is expected that the third batch of import quotas in September may be appropriately relaxed. However, we expect the overall quantity of refined oil quotas to be significantly tightened compared to previous years. In the second half of the year, the pressure of supply and demand in the domestic refined oil market is still relatively high, which restricts the start of domestic refineries and the demand for crude oil imports.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: The US dollar is strong but copper prices are relatively defensive.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of August 6 was between 69,670 yuan/ton and 71,725 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copper was between 115 yuan/ton and 360 yuan/ton. Last week, copper prices basically maintained a volatile pattern, and premiums and discounts remained high. And when the price fell, the premium and discount quotations rose relatively significantly.

Opinion:

short term:

Last week, Fed officials released a hawkish attitude, and the better-than-expected non-agricultural data intensified market concerns that the Fed might reduce the scale of bond purchases in advance, making the U.S. dollar stronger on Friday. However, in this process, copper prices are relatively defensive compared to precious metals. And when prices fall in the middle of the week, market premiums and discounts are also quite high. As far as the current inventory situation is concerned, it seems that the situation in China has just begun to show an accumulation in inventory. Therefore, in general, the current fundamental factors have a relatively neutral effect on prices, so prices may also be dominated by shocks in the near future.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. After the Fed's meeting on interest rates in July, despite the fall in the U.S. dollar, the Fed still did not start to reduce the size of its current bond purchases. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Yisheng's August contract supply has reduced again; investors can pay attention to the follow-up Zhejiang Petrochemical crude oil quota issue.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet experienced destocking again, the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September, and there will be no pressure on inventory accumulation before delivery in September; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿：预期现实同步走弱，期货现货普遍下跌

上周铁矿石期货震荡下行，截至上周五收盘，铁矿01合约收于895元/吨，周环比下跌27元/吨，跌幅2.93% 。现货方面，上周五青岛港PB粉报1242元/吨，较前周跌94元/吨。超特粉报863元/吨，跌69元/吨，普氏62%指数报171.2美元/吨，跌9.3美元/吨。成交方面，上周铁矿石主港日均成交113万吨，环比增加24万吨。期现价格均有不同程度的下跌，成交小幅回升。

供应方面，Mysteel澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2472.4万吨，环比减少14.7万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1690.8万吨，环比减少49万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1340.1万吨，环比减少145.8万吨；巴西发货总量781.6万吨，环比增加34.3万吨。全球发运总量3125.7万吨，环比减少123.4万吨；中国45港到港总量2216.6万吨，环比增加594.3万吨；北方六港到港总量为1145.5万吨，环比增加172.4万吨。全球发运周环比小幅回落，供应端外矿总体表现平稳，内矿小幅收缩。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率74.61%，环比上周增加0.26%，同比去年下降16.8%；高炉炼铁产能利用率85.73%，环比下降1.11%，同比下降9.03%；钢厂盈利率87.88%，环比增加1.73%，同比下降7.36%；日均铁水产量228.19万吨，环比下降2.95万吨，同比下降24.03万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率57.18%，环比增加0.14%，产能利用率69.27%，环比增加0.11%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为75.4%，较去年同期下降11.71%，钢厂盈利率77.3%，环比下降0.61%；日均疏港量284.37万吨增35.55万吨。高炉开工率周环比小幅增加，日均铁水持续下降趋势，铁矿石需求端不断走弱。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12639.3万吨，环比降174.12万吨；日均疏港量284.37万吨增35.55万吨。分量方面，澳矿6392.7降201.61，巴西矿3457.34增76.63，贸易矿7006.2增15.6，球团384.08降2.12，精粉940.17降35.39，块矿1912.64降105.6，粗粉9402.41降31.01；在港船舶数192条增24条。港口库存处历史中位水平，品种结构尚存进一步优化的空间。

整体来看，供给端外矿平稳内矿收缩，国内消费端受到粗钢压产和疫情等影响，走弱明显，港存处于历年中位水平，且后续存在一定累库预期，铁矿供需结构开始逆转。在全国下半年严格的粗钢压产政策执行之下，过高的矿价难以维持，后续大概率偏弱运行。

策略：

单边 ：中期偏空

跨品种：多近月成材空远月铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：需求环比回升，胶价延续反弹

上周橡胶期价延续反弹格局，在海外泰国原料价格持续回升提振下，橡胶下方支撑较强，同时在国内需求接近低点后，后期有回升预期，叠加国内港口库存的持续下滑，总体供需环比改善。国内交易所总库存截止8月6为201150吨（+4400），期货仓单量181810吨（+3900），随着国内原料的回升以及盘面价格的上扬，上周仓单继续回升。截至8月1日，因到港量仍有限，青岛保税区库存延续小幅回落，绝对量同比也处于近些年的低位。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止8月5日，全钢胎企业开工率62.68%（+1.56%），半钢胎企业开工率59.42（+2.09%）。需求淡季，轮胎厂开工率回升动力仍不足，上周因部分雪地胎生产带来开工率的回升。季节性来看，8月下旬，开工率有望迎来季节性改善。

观点：近期橡胶盘面的上涨逻辑主要来自前期下跌的修复，一方面是海外泰国产区的原料价格大跌之后，胶水价格重新反弹修复其与杯胶之间的价差。另一方面则是国内下游轮胎厂开工率下挫后，在海外雪地胎生产订单回升所带来的开工率低位反弹，同时后期也将迎来季节性消费旺季，开工率有进一步回升的预期，带来橡胶供需环比改善。目前价格修复之后，更多关注后期上行的压力，RU主要关注烟片进口套利窗口，从上周末的烟片价格测算，上方13850元/吨一线已经面临进口压力，如果后期原料价格不能大幅上行，则限制了胶价盘面的上涨空间，另外RU则需要关注盘面的交割利润，一旦利润持续扩大，则将吸引套保盘的介入，目前RU非标价差还没有明显拉大，预计下周胶价有望延续偏强震荡。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：疫情与进口配额偏紧短期利空油价

近期影响油市的利空因素主要来自两个方面，其一是Delta疫情的扩散，尤其是国内疫情多点爆发，华东部分城市如南京、扬州等已经暂停了公共交通，如飞机、公交和出租车等，这对于短期中国石油消费将产生负面影响，且由于华东地区是中国成品油消费最大的地区，已有机构预测8月中国消费环比下降约10%。从交通拥堵指数来看，疫情热点城市，南京、扬州拥堵指数下降超过50%，不过是否对需求产生如此显著冲击主要取决于国内疫情能否得到较快控制，如果类似于之前华南疫情的情况，那么对需求的抑制可能只是脉冲性的影响，但如果疫情持续扩散，新增感染人数居高不下，那么将会对未来“金九银十”出行旺季的需求产生打压，不过我们认为疫情能在较短时间内得到控制，不会出现大面积的扩散。其二是目前中国的石油进出口政策，考虑到碳中和、税收以及市场公平性等因素，今年以来国家收紧了原油进口配额以及成品油出口配额，石油进出口“大进大出”的模式会更加倾向于内循环，但如此一来，国内炼厂的内卷明显加剧，而民营炼厂将首当其冲，目前山东独立炼厂开工率已经相比一个月前下滑近10%，浙石化近期也由于缺乏进口配额降低了装置负荷，并与盛虹一起近期向商务部申请了临时配额，当前配额问题已经成为制约中国原油采购的最大瓶颈。不过，如果商务部对两家民营大炼化下发临时配额，如果再加上近期山东地炼与政府签订了原油进口承诺函，预计9月份第三批的进口配额可能会适当放松，但成品油配额我们预计整体下发数量相较往年显著收紧，下半年国内成品油市场的供需压力仍相对较大，从而制约国内炼厂开工以及原油进口需求。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：美元走强但铜价相对抗跌

现货情况：

据SMM讯，8月6日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于69,670元/吨至71,725元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价则是运行于115元/吨至360元/吨之间。上周铜价基本仍然维持震荡格局，升贴水依然维持较高的报价。并且在价格回落之际，升贴水报价抬高相对明显。

观点：

短期：

上周，美联储官员释放鹰派态度，并且好于预期的非农又加剧了市场对于美联储或将提前进行缩减购债规模动作的担忧，周五美元大幅走强，不过在此过程中，铜价相较于贵金属而言相对抗跌，并且周中在价格回落之际，市场升贴水报价也同样有挺高的情况，而就目前库存情况而言，目前国内似乎刚刚开始出现累库的情况。因此总体而言，目前基本面因素对价格作用相对中性，故而价格或许于近期同样将会以震荡格局为主。

中长期：

宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，在7月Fed议息会议后，美元出现回落，美联储仍然没有开始缩减当下购债规模。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前基本面维持相对中性的态度。不过宏观对于铜价走势则相对有利。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 国内交仓情况

PTA：逸盛8月合约供应量再度缩减，关注后续浙石化原油配额问题

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表持续去库，快速累库节点推迟到9月，9月交割前无累库压力；亚洲PX8月平衡表走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯利润低位下的降负幅度。