Iron ore: The forward resources were sold off, and the futures and spot markets fell at the same time.

Viewpoint and logic:

In terms of spot: traders lowered their offers in the early trading session, and all varieties fell by around 20 yuan/ton. Steel mills mostly take a wait-and-see attitude, and speculative demand is extremely deserted. Compared with the port's spot resources, U.S. dollar cargo continued to fall sharply. The open quotation of forward pbf in the morning session was 0.3 USD/ton lower, which further opened up the profit margin for imports.

In terms of futures, the main iron ore contract opened lower and then moved lower, with prices fluctuating around 950~960 throughout the day. Basis has expanded slightly, and the overall basis level is at a neutrally low level. It is expected to remain weak in the future, and there will be a pulse-like rebound as steel mills replenish their inventory.

On the whole, in the context of limited production, the correct handling of high-priced iron ore is the fundamental purpose of all policies. With the effective contraction of molten iron production, the oversupply of iron ore has become more prominent, and port inventory will further show a trend of accumulation. Structural problems that have lasted for nearly a year have been effectively alleviated. In the past month, the index, premium, etc. have all shown a sharp decline. However, due to the low sintering inventory of steel mills, the possibility of a rebound in centralized replenishment of inventories is not ruled out (select opportunities to add shorts). Due to the recent outstanding performance-price ratio of mid-grade products, those with spot resources should pay attention to the adjustment of spot varieties. Under the premise that the overall supply-demand relationship remains the same, it is the first choice to initiate a short position of iron ore when market price hits high.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: cautiously bearish

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Raw material prices continued to rise, and rubber prices remained strong.

On August 9, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,620 (-25) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,425 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -320 yuan/ton (+25); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 41,755 (-7,142) lots, ,the short position was 62,162 (-8.843) lots, and the net short position was 20,407 (-1,701) lots.

On August 9, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,385 (-40) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,760 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,740 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,725 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -200 (+77) yuan/ton.

As of August 6: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 201,150 (+4,400) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 181,810 (+3,900) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.1 (+1.2), cup lump 47.2 (+1.05), latex 49.5 (+1.5), RSS3 55.25 (+0.66).

As of August 5, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.68% (+1.56%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 59.42 (+2.09%).

Opinion: With the decline in crude oil prices and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, the rubber price experienced a correction yesterday, but the current trend still maintains a strong pattern. The price of raw materials in Thailand continued to rise yesterday, especially the price of latex has continued to increase recently, which has basically repaired the spread between it and the cup lump. The current demand performance is weak, but the month-on-month ratio is improving. Moreover, the rebound in raw material prices and the continued decline in domestic port inventories have made the rubber support stronger. Before the spread between futures and spot prices is not significantly widened, the price of rubber is expected to remain strong and volatile. The short-term risks that need to be paid attention to are the deterioration in demand caused by the epidemic and the impact of the correction of crude oil.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The export quota of refined oil has been tightened, and the domestic refining and chemical industry is facing adjustments.

Yesterday, China Energy News published an article on export quotas for refined oil products. The relevant experts in the article said that the export quota for refined oil products for the whole year was reduced to 34 million tons, compared with 59 million tons last year. It is currently estimated that the remaining available quotas this year will only be around 7 million tons, and the regulatory authorities are more willing to change the “big import and big export”. However, considering the slowdown in domestic demand for refined oil in recent years, refined oil exports are an important means of digesting excess resources. With the tightening of refined oil quotas and large-scale refining operations successively put into operation, the integration of the domestic refining industry is bound to accelerate, the profit and operating rate of the refining industry will decline, and a number of small and medium-sized refineries with poor competitiveness will be phased out.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: The US dollar is still relatively strong, and copper prices remain volatile.

Spot: According to SMM, trading in the spot market was insipid yesterday, and it was difficult for buyers and sellers to reach agreement. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to report a premium of 180 yuan/ton, but there were few large transactions in the market. After some holders adjusted their prices slightly to a premium of 160-170 yuan/ton, the trade buying still held a wait-and-see attitude, but holders were no longer willing to take the initiative to cut prices. In the second trading period, when there was an occasional quotation of a premium of 150 yuan/ton, it was immediately bought out. The quotations of High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper are also hard to see large fluctuations. High-Grade Copper reported a premium of around 180 yuan/ton, and Guixi Copper only reported a premium of around 200 yuan/ton. It is difficult to see the spread between it and Standard-Grade Copper. However, the market favor is limited, and there are few large transactions. The spread between Hydro-Copper and Standard-Grade Copper slightly widened, and the downstream basically maintained rigid demand for buying. There is a large price difference between brands. Some BMKs can offer a premium of around 80 yuan/ton, but the better quality ESOX keeps the lower limit of the premium of 100 yuan, and the morning quotation was once strong at a premium of 120 yuan/ton.

Opinion: When the US dollar reached 93 yesterday, copper prices did indeed fell back to a certain extent, but the overall decline was still relatively limited, and there was a slight rebound during the night trading hours. At present, the fundamentals of copper may weaken slightly in Q3, but the degree is not too great. In the process of the strengthening of the US dollar, the non-ferrous metals sector, including copper, has shown a relatively defensive state. Therefore, it can be seen that the market's confidence in the non-ferrous sector still exists. However, whether the US dollar can maintain its continued strength still requires the market to continue to seek evidence that the Fed will taper ahead of schedule. Therefore, the current operation can be cautiously buying when market price is low.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. After the Fed's meeting on interest rates in July, despite the fall in the U.S. dollar, the Fed still did not start to reduce the size of its current bond purchases. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, for cross-species arbitrage is dominated by long allocation.

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The crude oil correction has led to a fall in costs.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet experienced destocking again, the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September, and there will be no pressure on inventory accumulation before delivery in September; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and wait for a correction to initiate long positions

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.

铁矿：远期资源甩卖，期现共振下跌

观点与逻辑：

现货方面：早盘贸易商纷纷下调报盘各品种普跌20元/吨，询盘有限钢厂多以观望为主，投机需求极为冷清。较之港口现货资源，海漂惨不忍睹，美金货继续大幅下跌，远期pbf早上开盘报价低0.3美金/吨，进口利润空间进一步打开。

期货方面：铁矿主力合约低开低走， 全天围绕950~960一线震荡。基差略有扩大，整体基差水平处于中性偏低。预计后续维持弱势，随着钢厂补库会脉冲式反弹行情。

整体来看，在压产大背景下，治理高价铁矿是一切政策的根本目的，随着铁水产量的有效收缩，铁矿供需过剩凸显，港口库存进一步呈现累库态势。持续近一年之久的结构性问题得到有效缓解。近一个月来，指数、连铁、溢价等均呈现大幅下降走势。不过由于钢厂烧结库存偏低，不排除有集中补库的反弹行情（择机加空），由于近期中品性价比凸显，有现货资源的注意现货品种间调剂。在整体供需关系不变的大前提下，逢高空头配置铁矿为首选。

策略：

单边：谨慎看空

跨品种：多成材空矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求表现，铁矿发运，疫情加重等

橡胶：原料价格继续上行，胶价维持强势

9号，RU主力收盘13620（-25）元/吨，混合胶报价12425元/吨（0），主力合约基差-320元/吨（+25）；前二十主力多头持仓41755（-7142），空头持仓62162（-8843），净空持仓20407（-1701）。

9号，NR主力收盘价11385（-40）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1760（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1740美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1725（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-200（+77）元/吨。

截至8月6日：交易所总库存201150（+4400），交易所仓单181810（+3900）。

原料：生胶片52.1（+1.2），杯胶47.2（+1.05），胶水49.5（+1.50），烟片55.25（+0.66）。

截止8月5日，国内全钢胎开工率为62.68%（+1.56%），国内半钢胎开工率为59.42%(+2.09%）。观点：在原油价格下挫以及美元指数走强下，昨天胶价有所回调，但目前走势仍维持偏强格局。昨天泰国原料价格继续上涨，尤其胶水价格近期持续补涨，已经基本修复了其与胶杯的价差。按昨天的烟片价格折算到RU09的进口套利窗口上移动到15000元/吨一线。当下需求表现一般，但环比改善，且原料价格的回升以及国内港口库存持续下滑，橡胶下方支撑较强，在期现价差没有明显拉大之前，预计胶价维持偏强震荡。短期需要关注的风险是疫情带来的需求恶化以及原油的回调影响。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：成品油出口配额收紧，国内炼化行业面临调整

昨日中国能源报发布关于成品油出口配额的相关文章，文中相关专家称今年全年的成品油出口配额缩减至3400万吨，而去年是5900万吨，目前预计今年剩余可用配额数量仅在700万吨左右，国家改变“大进大出”两头在外的意愿较为明显，但考虑到近年来国内成品油需求增速放缓，成品油出口是作为过剩资源的重要消化手段，成品油配额收紧叠加大炼化陆续投产，国内炼化行业的整合势必将会提速，炼油行业的利润和开工率将会下滑，一批竞争力较差的中小炼厂将会逐步淘汰。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：美元依旧相对强劲 铜价维持震荡

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场交投清淡，买卖双方难达一致，整体较为僵持。早市平水铜始报于升水180元/吨难闻大量成交，部分持货商小幅调价至升水160-170元/吨后贸易买盘依旧呈现纠结之态，但持货商已然不愿主动降价，第二时段，偶有升水150元/吨的非长单交货库流出，也是少量即被秒收状态。好铜和湿法铜报价同样难见大幅波动，好铜报至升水180元/吨左右，贵溪铜也仅仅报于升水200元/吨附近，和平水铜难见价差，市场青睐度有限难闻大量成交。湿法铜和平水铜价差则小幅扩大，下游基本维持刚需买盘，品牌间价差较大，部分BMK可至升水80元/吨附近，但ESOX之类的品质较好的却守住升水100元的下限，早市一度强撑于升水120元/吨。

观点：昨日在美元上攻93一线之时，铜价也的确出现了一定回落，但整体回落幅度仍然相对有限，并且夜盘时段还出现了小幅回升。而目前铜品种基本面在Q3间或有些许边际走弱的情况，但是程度也不至太大，而在美元走强的过程中，包括铜在内的有色金属板块均呈现出相对抗跌的状态，因此可见市场对于有色的信心仍然存在，但美元能否维持持续的强势则仍需市场不断寻求美联储将会提前进行Taper的证据，故此目前在操作上可以轻仓谨慎逢低吸入。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势也一度相对强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，在跨品种套利中以多头配置为主。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎偏多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：原油回调带动成本回落

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表持续去库，快速累库节点推迟到9月，9月交割前无累库压力；亚洲PX8月平衡表走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待回调低位布局多单。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯利润低位下的降负幅度。