Iron ore: The forward resources were sold off, and the futures and spot markets fell at the same time.
Viewpoint and logic:
In terms of spot: traders lowered their offers in the early trading session, and all varieties fell by around 20 yuan/ton. Steel mills mostly take a wait-and-see attitude, and speculative demand is extremely deserted. Compared with the port's spot resources, U.S. dollar cargo continued to fall sharply. The open quotation of forward pbf in the morning session was 0.3 USD/ton lower, which further opened up the profit margin for imports.
In terms of futures, the main iron ore contract opened lower and then moved lower, with prices fluctuating around 950~960 throughout the day. Basis has expanded slightly, and the overall basis level is at a neutrally low level. It is expected to remain weak in the future, and there will be a pulse-like rebound as steel mills replenish their inventory.
On the whole, in the context of limited production, the correct handling of high-priced iron ore is the fundamental purpose of all policies. With the effective contraction of molten iron production, the oversupply of iron ore has become more prominent, and port inventory will further show a trend of accumulation. Structural problems that have lasted for nearly a year have been effectively alleviated. In the past month, the index, premium, etc. have all shown a sharp decline. However, due to the low sintering inventory of steel mills, the possibility of a rebound in centralized replenishment of inventories is not ruled out (select opportunities to add shorts). Due to the recent outstanding performance-price ratio of mid-grade products, those with spot resources should pay attention to the adjustment of spot varieties. Under the premise that the overall supply-demand relationship remains the same, it is the first choice to initiate a short position of iron ore when market price hits high.
Unilateral: cautiously bearish
Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;
2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;
3. Shipping data may change drastically;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
Rubber: Raw material prices continued to rise, and rubber prices remained strong.
On August 9, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,620 (-25) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,425 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -320 yuan/ton (+25); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 41,755 (-7,142) lots, ,the short position was 62,162 (-8.843) lots, and the net short position was 20,407 (-1,701) lots.
On August 9, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,385 (-40) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,760 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,740 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,725 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -200 (+77) yuan/ton.
As of August 6: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 201,150 (+4,400) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 181,810 (+3,900) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.1 (+1.2), cup lump 47.2 (+1.05), latex 49.5 (+1.5), RSS3 55.25 (+0.66).
As of August 5, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.68% (+1.56%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 59.42 (+2.09%).
Opinion: With the decline in crude oil prices and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, the rubber price experienced a correction yesterday, but the current trend still maintains a strong pattern. The price of raw materials in Thailand continued to rise yesterday, especially the price of latex has continued to increase recently, which has basically repaired the spread between it and the cup lump. The current demand performance is weak, but the month-on-month ratio is improving. Moreover, the rebound in raw material prices and the continued decline in domestic port inventories have made the rubber support stronger. Before the spread between futures and spot prices is not significantly widened, the price of rubber is expected to remain strong and volatile. The short-term risks that need to be paid attention to are the deterioration in demand caused by the epidemic and the impact of the correction of crude oil.
Strategy: Cautiously bullish
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: The export quota of refined oil has been tightened, and the domestic refining and chemical industry is facing adjustments.
Yesterday, China Energy News published an article on export quotas for refined oil products. The relevant experts in the article said that the export quota for refined oil products for the whole year was reduced to 34 million tons, compared with 59 million tons last year. It is currently estimated that the remaining available quotas this year will only be around 7 million tons, and the regulatory authorities are more willing to change the “big import and big export”. However, considering the slowdown in domestic demand for refined oil in recent years, refined oil exports are an important means of digesting excess resources. With the tightening of refined oil quotas and large-scale refining operations successively put into operation, the integration of the domestic refining industry is bound to accelerate, the profit and operating rate of the refining industry will decline, and a number of small and medium-sized refineries with poor competitiveness will be phased out.
Copper: The US dollar is still relatively strong, and copper prices remain volatile.
Spot: According to SMM, trading in the spot market was insipid yesterday, and it was difficult for buyers and sellers to reach agreement. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to report a premium of 180 yuan/ton, but there were few large transactions in the market. After some holders adjusted their prices slightly to a premium of 160-170 yuan/ton, the trade buying still held a wait-and-see attitude, but holders were no longer willing to take the initiative to cut prices. In the second trading period, when there was an occasional quotation of a premium of 150 yuan/ton, it was immediately bought out. The quotations of High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper are also hard to see large fluctuations. High-Grade Copper reported a premium of around 180 yuan/ton, and Guixi Copper only reported a premium of around 200 yuan/ton. It is difficult to see the spread between it and Standard-Grade Copper. However, the market favor is limited, and there are few large transactions. The spread between Hydro-Copper and Standard-Grade Copper slightly widened, and the downstream basically maintained rigid demand for buying. There is a large price difference between brands. Some BMKs can offer a premium of around 80 yuan/ton, but the better quality ESOX keeps the lower limit of the premium of 100 yuan, and the morning quotation was once strong at a premium of 120 yuan/ton.
Opinion: When the US dollar reached 93 yesterday, copper prices did indeed fell back to a certain extent, but the overall decline was still relatively limited, and there was a slight rebound during the night trading hours. At present, the fundamentals of copper may weaken slightly in Q3, but the degree is not too great. In the process of the strengthening of the US dollar, the non-ferrous metals sector, including copper, has shown a relatively defensive state. Therefore, it can be seen that the market's confidence in the non-ferrous sector still exists. However, whether the US dollar can maintain its continued strength still requires the market to continue to seek evidence that the Fed will taper ahead of schedule. Therefore, the current operation can be cautiously buying when market price is low.
On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. After the Fed's meeting on interest rates in July, despite the fall in the U.S. dollar, the Fed still did not start to reduce the size of its current bond purchases. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, for cross-species arbitrage is dominated by long allocation.
1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: The crude oil correction has led to a fall in costs.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet experienced destocking again, the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September, and there will be no pressure on inventory accumulation before delivery in September; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.
(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and wait for a correction to initiate long positions
(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.
1. 单边：谨慎偏多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧