Iron ore: The iron ore market sentiment was weak, and we still maintain the suggestion of initiating a short position of iron ore when the market price hits high.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore market was weak, and imported ores fell 5-26 throughout the day. At present, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1169 fell 21, Yangdi Fines 1003 fell 20; Caofeidian PB fines 1167 fell 20, SSF 820 fell 15; Tianjin Port PB fines 1170 fell 25, JMBF 1065 fell 20; Jiangyin Port fines 1220 fell 26. The prices of domestic ores fell in some areas. Among them, the price of Tangshan iron ore concentrates fell by 120 yuan/ton; the price of Qianxi iron ore concentrates fell by 128 yuan/ton; the price of Qian'an iron ore concentrates fell by 135 yuan/ton.

According to customs statistics, China imported 88.506 million tons of iron ore and its refined fines in July, a month-on-month drop of 911,000 tons and a year-on-year drop of 24.141 million tons. From January to July, China imported a total of 649.025 million tons of iron ore and its refined fines, a year-on-year decrease of 9.909 million tons.

On the whole, with the in-depth advancement of production restrictions, which generates a big negative factor to iron ore. In the past month, the index, premium, etc. have all shown a sharp decline, and port inventories have gradually accumulated. We still maintain the suggestion of initiating a short position of iron ore when the market price hits high. However, it should be noted that the current low sintering inventory of steel mills and the continued expansion of the basis have brought a slight rebound in the market.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: cautiously bearish

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Port inventory continued to decline.

On August 10, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,910 (+75) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,475 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1610 yuan/ton (-75); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 84,587 (+7,514) lots, ,the short position was 115,569 (+9,686) lots, and the net short position was 30,982 (+2,172) lots.

On August 10, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,470 (+85) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,765 (+5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,745 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,725 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -285 (+85) yuan/ton.

As of August 6: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 201,150 (+4,400) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 181,810 (+3,900) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52 (-0.1), cup lump 47.45 (+0.25), latex 50 (+0.5), RSS3 55.55 (+0.3).

As of August 5, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.68% (+1.56%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 59.42 (+2.09%).

Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices continued to be strong, and domestic port inventories as of last weekend continued to decline. The price of raw materials in Thailand presented a mix of gains and losses, but the prices of latex and RSS3 still rose slightly. The current demand performance is weak, but its month-on-month ratio is improving. Moreover, the rebound in raw material prices and the continued decline in domestic port inventories have made the rubber support stronger. At the same time, expectations of a slowdown in domestic imports due to the Southeast Asian epidemic are strengthening, and support on the supply side in the future may be gradually strengthened. Before the spread between futures and spot prices is not significantly widened, the price of rubber is expected to remain strong and volatile.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API inventories fell and oil prices rebounded sharply.

Oil prices rose sharply yesterday, and volatility remained high. Generally speaking, despite the recent negative factors in China's demand (the outbreak of the epidemic, the contraction of refined oil export quotas and crude oil import quotas), Western demand is still performing well, and the US gasoline crack spread has reached a new high during the year. From the API inventory data, crude oil and refined oil inventories maintained a downward trend. However, the current fundamentals are less likely to turn, and the current market structure is the strengthening of the previous pattern of strong west and weak east. However, if the epidemic is controlled and the crude oil quota is issued, we believe that the phased weakness of the spot market may be improved.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: Copper prices continue to fluctuate higher despite the continued recovery of the US dollar.

Spot: According to SMM, the overall trading activity in the spot market was still not high yesterday. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 150-160 yuan/ton, but no one in the market paid any attention. The transaction only improved slightly when some holders adjusted their quotations slightly lower to 140 yuan/ton due to the demand for spot exchange. After the second trading session, when a very small amount of goods with a premium of 130 yuan/ton flowed into the market and was bought out, the premium and discount returned to a premium of 140-150 yuan/ton. It was difficult to see the spread between High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper, and the overall quotation of High-Grade Copper was a premium of 150-170 yuan/ton. Guixi Copper also only reported a premium of 170 yuan/ton, but there was little buying interest in the market, and the actual transaction was insipid. The Hydro-Copper quotation highlights the differences. Some brands such as BMK reported a premium of 60-70 yuan/ton and got a small amount of transactions, while Some better brands such as UMMC and ESOX reported a premium of 90-100 yuan/ton to lead the market, but the overall transaction was still relatively insipid.

Opinion: In recent days, a series of strong US employment data has consolidated expectations that the Fed may soon begin to scale back large-scale anti-epidemic stimulus measures. Many Fed officials said that the level of inflation has reached the threshold that prompted the Fed to raise interest rates. This has allowed the US dollar to maintain a strong momentum, but as stated in the previous report, the non-ferrous metals sector has shown relatively defensive under the strength of the US dollar, showing that the non-ferrous metals sector may be more favored by the market when the economic recovery is expected. Therefore, for copper investment, it is still recommended to adopt the strategy to purchase at low prices.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. After the Fed's meeting on interest rates in July, despite the fall in the U.S. dollar, the Fed still did not start to reduce the size of its current bond purchases. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, the cross-species arbitrage strategy is dominated by long allocation.

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: In the context of continued destocking expectations, PTA processing fees continue to be firm.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet experienced destocking again, the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September, and there will be no pressure on inventory accumulation before delivery in September; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, and to initiate long positions when processing fees witness a contraction.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.

铁矿：铁矿市场心态偏弱 维持逢高空配建议

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石市场弱势运行，进口矿全天累计下跌5-26不等。现青岛港PB粉1169跌21，杨迪粉1003跌20；曹妃甸PB粉1167跌20，超特粉820跌15；天津港PB粉1170跌25，金布巴粉1065跌20；江阴港1220跌26，杨迪粉1025跌5。国产矿部分地区价格下跌，其中唐山铁精粉价格下跌120元/吨；迁西铁精粉价格下跌128元/吨；迁安铁精粉价格下跌135元/吨。

据海关统计，7月我国进口铁矿砂及其精粉8850.6万吨，环比降91.1万吨，同比降2414.1万吨。1-7月我国累计进口铁矿砂及其精粉64902.5万吨，同比降990.9万吨。

整体来看，随着限产的深入推进，对铁矿形成较大利空，近一个月来，指数、连铁、溢价等均呈现大幅下降走势，港口库存逐步累计，依旧维持逢高空配铁矿。但需注意目前钢厂烧结库存偏低，以及基差继续扩大带来小幅反弹行情。

策略：

单边：谨慎看空

跨品种：多成材空矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求表现，铁矿发运，疫情加重等

橡胶：港口库存延续下行

10号，RU主力收盘14910（+75）元/吨，混合胶报价12475元/吨（+50），主力合约基差-1610元/吨（-75）；前二十主力多头持仓84587（+7514），空头持仓115569（+9686），净空持仓30982（+2172）。

10号，NR主力收盘价11470（+85）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1765（+5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1745美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1725（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-285（+85）元/吨。

截至8月6日：交易所总库存201150（+4400），交易所仓单181810（+3900）。

原料：生胶片52（-0.1），杯胶47.45（+0.25），胶水50（+0.50），烟片55.55（+0.3）。

截止8月5日，国内全钢胎开工率为62.68%（+1.56%），国内半钢胎开工率为59.42%(+2.09%）。观点：昨天橡胶期价延续偏强格局，截至上周末的国内港口库存延续下降趋势。泰国原料价格涨跌互现，但胶水及烟片价格仍有小幅上行。当下需求表现一般，但环比改善，且原料价格的回升以及国内港口库存持续下滑，橡胶下方支撑较强，同时，东南亚疫情带来的国内进口量减缓的预期在强化，后期供应端的支撑或将逐步加强，在期现价差没有明显拉大之前，预计胶价维持偏强震荡。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API库存下降，油价大幅反弹

昨日油价大幅上行，波动率维持高位，总体来说，虽然最近中国方面的需求利空不断（疫情爆发、成品油出口配额、原油进口配额收缩），但从西方的需求依然不错，美国汽油裂解价差创出了年内新高，从API库存数据来看，原油、成品油库存维持下降态势，当前基本面转势言之尚早，当前的市场格局是此前西强东弱的强化，但如果疫情得到控制叠加原油配额的下发，我们认为现货市场的阶段性疲软或将得到改善。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜： 美元持续回升情况下铜价依然震荡走高

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场整体交投活跃度依旧不高。早市平水铜始报于升水150-160元/吨，市场无人问津，部分持货商因换现需求小幅调价至升水140元/吨成交才略有好转，第二时段前后听闻极少量升水130元/吨货源流入市场被秒后，升贴水重新回到升水140-150元/吨。好铜报价和平水铜难见价差，整体报至升水150-170元/吨，贵溪铜也仅报至升水170元/吨，市场上难闻大量买兴，实际成交寥寥。湿法铜报价则凸显差异性，部分品牌如BMK报至升水60-70元/吨少量成交，但部分较好品牌如UMMC，ESOX则报至升水90-100元/吨引领市场报价，整体成交较为清淡。

观点：近日,一系列强劲的美国就业数据巩固了对美联储可能很快开始缩减大规模抗疫刺激措施的预期。美联储多名官员称，通胀水平已经达到促使美联储加息的门槛。这使得美元保持强劲势头，但正如此前报告中称，有色金属板块在美元的走强之下显现得相对抗跌，显示出在经济复苏预期存在的情况下，有色板块或许更受到市场青睐，因此目前对于铜品种而言，仍然建议以逢低吸入为主。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势也一度相对强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，在跨品种套利中以多头配置为主。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎偏多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：去库预期背景下，PTA加工费持续坚挺

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表持续去库，快速累库节点推迟到9月，9月交割前无累库压力；亚洲PX8月平衡表走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多，逢加工费缩窄布局多单。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯利润低位下的降负幅度。