Iron ore: The iron ore market rose sharply, but the spot market was still weak.

Viewpoint and logic:

In terms of futures, the 01 contract rebounded after a sharp drop yesterday, closing at 871.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.69%. The spot market was still volatile and weak. As of closing, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1160-1170, SSF 785-795; Caofeidian Port PB fines 1160-1170, SSF 815-825; Tianjin Port PB fines 1170-1175, JMBF 1060-1070; Jiangyin Port PB fines 1215-1225, mixed fines 945-955. On the inventory side, mysteel announced the latest data of 15 ports’ inventory of 94.87 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous week. On the supply side, mineral resources company will put into operation a new iron ore production center in September, with an annual production capacity of 30 million tons.

On the whole, iron ore rebounded yesterday, but the room is expected to be limited. Although the number of iron ore arrivals in the fourth quarter will decrease year-on-year, there is a high probability that production restrictions will be implemented relatively strictly, and the supply and demand pattern of iron ore will gradually deteriorate. In the past month, the index, premium, etc. have all shown a sharp decline. We still maintain the suggestion of initiating a short position of iron ore when the market price hits high. However, it should be noted that the current low sintering inventory of steel mills and the continued expansion of the basis have brought a slight rebound in the market.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: cautiously bearish

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. The performance of steel demand at home and abroad;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Spot prices remained stable and futures prices fluctuated.

On August 11, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,820 (-90) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,475 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1520 yuan/ton (+90); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 87,432 (+2,845) lots, ,the short position was 125,079 (+9,510) lots, and the net short position was 37,647 (+6,665) lots.

On August 11, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,475 (+5) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,765 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,750 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,725 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -292 (-7) yuan/ton.

As of August 6: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 201,150 (+4,400) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 181,810 (+3,900) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 51.91 (-0.09), cup lump 47.45 (0), latex 50.50 (0), RSS3 55.55 (0).

As of August 5, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.68% (+1.56%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 59.42 (+2.09%).

Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices were dominated by shocks. The price of raw materials in Thailand maintains a steady upward trend, and the increase in prices during the rubber delivery season may partly indicate that the supply is tight. Due to the impact of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, China’s domestic rubber imports have slowed down. Under the sluggish operating rate of domestic tire factories, domestic port inventories still maintain destocking, which strongly supports rubber prices. The slowdown in the pace of overseas imports has also affected the domestic raw materials and inventory patterns. Therefore, we see that the increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory and warehouse receipts is also relatively limited. The current demand performance is weak, but its month-on-month ratio is improving, and price support is mainly on the supply side. Therefore, we will pay more attention to changes in spot prices in the future. Before the spread between futures and spot prices is not significantly widened, the price of rubber is expected to remain strong and volatile.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The White House hopes that OPEC will increase production, and the EIA data is slightly bullish for the market.

Oil prices fell first and then rose yesterday. The news of the White House asking OPEC to increase production has a negative impact on oil prices. But after the release of EIA data, oil prices gradually recovered from their decline. The EIA data itself is slightly more bullish for the market. Crude oil inventories fell but the decline was less than expected. Distillate oil inventories increased but gasoline inventories continued to decline. U.S. gasoline consumption data is still good, and the gasoline crack spread continue to be high. In addition, crude oil exports, which had fallen for two consecutive weeks, rebounded again, mainly due to the recent improvement in the economic performance of U.S. Gulf crude oil exports. At present, the fundamentals of the US market are still tight, and the fundamentals of oil destocking have not yet been reversed.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: Copper prices continue to maintain stability.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, yesterday's spot market transactions were still difficult to see improvement. No matter whether it is trade buying or downstream buying, it was difficult to see a large amount of buying interest. Buyers and sellers had large differences in price, and there were few large transactions. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 150 yuan/ton, but there was little buying interest in the market. Only after some holders slightly adjusted their quotation to a premium of 140 yuan/ton, some buyers began to purchase on-demand. After the second period, the holders maintained their price supporting sentiment, resulting in Standard-Grade Copper still reported a premium of 150-160 yuan/ton, but there were few actual transactions in the market. It was still difficult to see the spread between High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper. High-Grade Copper reported a premium of 160-180 yuan/ton, but the favor was limited, and the transaction was more insipid than that of Standard-Grade Copper. Hydro-Copperwas quoted at a premium of 70-100 yuan/ton under the guidance of brands such as BMK. Its quotation near the end of close continued to rise with the price of Standard-Grade Copper, and even a small amount of quotations with a premium of more than 100 yuan appeared. However, buying orders have limited acceptance of high premiums, and there were also few large transactions in the market.

Opinion: Last night, the US July CPI annual rate remained unchanged at 5.40%, 0.1 percentage point higher than expected. The core CPI annual rate in July was in line with the expected value of 4.30%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous value. This makes the dollar index fall in a short period of time. The copper price is maintaining stability above 70,000, and the current fundamental changes are relatively limited. Therefore, if the rise of the US dollar cannot continue, there may be more favorable conditions for the strengthening of copper prices.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the US dollar trend was relatively strong after the interest rate meeting, it was largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, the cross-species arbitrage strategy is dominated by long allocation.

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: TA processing fees fell slightly, and polyester production and sales data was weak.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet experienced destocking again, the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September, and there will be no pressure on inventory accumulation before delivery in September; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, and to initiate long positions when processing fees witness a contraction.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.

铁矿：铁矿盘面大涨 现货依旧偏弱

观点与逻辑：

昨日期货盘面01合约超跌反弹，收盘871.5元/吨，上涨3.69%。现货方面依旧震荡偏弱。截止收盘，青岛港PB粉1160-1170，超特粉785-795；曹妃甸港PB粉1160-1170，超特粉815-825；天津港PB粉1170-1175，金布巴粉1060-1070；江阴港PB粉1215-1225，混合粉945-955。库存端，mysteel公布的最新一期15港库存9487万吨，环比小幅下降。供给端，mineral resources矿业公司将在9月投产新的铁矿石生产中心，年产能3000万吨。

整体来看，昨日铁矿反弹，但我们预计空间有限。虽然四季度铁矿到港会同比有所减少，但限产大概率会相对严格执行，铁矿供需格局会逐步恶化，近一个月来，指数、连铁、溢价等均呈现大幅下降走势，依旧维持逢高空配铁矿。但需注意目前钢厂烧结库存偏低，以及基差继续扩大带来小幅反弹行情。

策略：

单边：谨慎看空

跨品种：多成材空矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求表现，铁矿发运，疫情加重等

橡胶：现货价格持稳，期价震荡

11号，RU主力收盘14820（-90）元/吨，混合胶报价12475元/吨（0），主力合约基差-1520元/吨（+90）；前二十主力多头持仓87432（+2845），空头持仓125079（+9510），净空持仓37647（+6665）。

11号，NR主力收盘价11475（+5）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1765（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1750美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1725（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-292（-7）元/吨。

截至8月6日：交易所总库存201150（+4400），交易所仓单181810（+3900）。

原料：生胶片51.91（-0.09），杯胶47.45（0），胶水50.50（+0.50），烟片55.55（0）。

截止8月5日，国内全钢胎开工率为62.68%（+1.56%），国内半钢胎开工率为59.42%(+2.09%）。观点：昨天橡胶期价震荡为主，泰国原料价格维持稳中上涨的势头，在割胶旺季价格上扬或部分说明供应偏紧。因东南亚疫情的影响，国内橡胶进口量放缓，在国内轮胎厂开工率低迷下，国内港口库存仍维持去化，对橡胶价格支撑较强。海外进口节奏的放缓，同样影响了国内的原料及库存格局，因此，我们看到上海期货交易所的库存及仓单增幅也较为有限。当下需求表现一般，但环比改善，价格支撑主要在供应端，因此，我们后期更多关注现货价格的变动，在期现价差没有明显拉大之前，预计胶价维持偏强震荡。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：白宫希望欧佩克增产，EIA数据略偏利多

昨日油价先跌后涨，白宫要求欧佩克增产的新闻对油价产生利空影响，但在EIA数据公布后，油价逐步收复跌幅，EIA数据本身来看略偏利多，其中原油库存下降但降幅不及预期，馏分油库存增加但汽油库存延续下降，美国汽油消费数据依然良好，汽油裂解价差持续高位，除此之外，此前连续两周下降的原油出口量再度回升，主要因为近期美湾原油出口经济性转好，美国市场的基本面依然偏紧，石油去库存的基本面态势尚未逆转。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜： 铜价持续维稳

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场成交依旧难见起色，无论是贸易买盘还是下游买盘都难见大量买兴，买卖双方对价格分歧较大，难闻大量成交。平水铜早市始报于升水150元/吨，市场买兴寥寥，随着部分持货商小幅调价至升水140元/吨，部分买盘按需采购，第二时段后持货商维持挺价情绪，整体依旧报至升水150-160元/吨，市场难闻大量实际成交。好铜和平水铜持续难见价差，整体报至升水160-180元/吨，无奈青睐度有限，成交较平水铜更为清淡。湿法铜则在BMK等品牌报价指引下报至升水70-100元/吨，尾盘随着平水铜价格的持续走高，甚至听闻少量升水百元以上报价，但买盘对高升水接受度有限，市场同样难闻大量成交。

观点：昨日晚间，美国7月CPI年率持平前值5.40%，高于预期值0.1个百分点；7月核心CPI年率符合预期的4.30%，低于前值0.2个百分点。这使得在短时内，美元指数出现回落。而铜价则是维稳于7万上方，并且当下基本面变化相对有限。故此倘若美元的涨势无法延续，则对于铜价的走强或许会出现更为有利的条件。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势也一度相对强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，在跨品种套利中以多头配置为主。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎偏多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：TA加工费小幅回落，聚酯产销偏弱

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表持续去库，快速累库节点推迟到9月，9月交割前无累库压力；亚洲PX8月平衡表走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多，逢加工费缩窄布局多单。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯利润低位下的降负幅度。