Iron ore: The lack of support from the supply side makes it difficult for iron ore to change its downward trend.

Due to the gradual implementation of the restricted production policy, iron ore has started a shock-declining mode in the past month. The futures market continued to be weak last week, the main 01 contract closed at 841.5 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan/ton from Monday's opening. On the spot side, there was a resonant decline. As of last Friday, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,122 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton from Monday's early trading. SSF reported 770 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from Monday’s early trading. At the same time, the Platts 62% index has fallen back to 160.85 US dollars/ton. In terms of transactions, the average daily transaction volume of major ports last week was 790,000 tons, which was an absolute low value over the years.

In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics, the total iron ore shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 25.666 million tons, an increase of 942,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, the volume of Rio Tinto's two ports hit a new high this year. The global iron ore shipment totaled 32.15 million tons, an increase of 893,000 tons from the previous month. China’s 45 ports’arrivals totaled 26.634 million tons, an increase of 4.468 million tons from the previous month; the six northern ports’ arrivals totaled 14.263 million tons, an increase of 2.808 million tons from the previous month. From the recent import data released by the customs and the diversion caused by the recovery of overseas pig iron consumption, it is expected that domestic iron ore supply will decline year-on-year.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 75.00%, an increase of 0.39% from last week and a decrease of 16.93% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 85.89%, an increase of 0.17% from the previous month, and a decrease of 9.27% from the same period last year. The profit rate of steel mills was 89.18%, a month-on-month increase of 1.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.06%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.2863 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,500 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 246,700 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 57.60%, an increase of 0.41% month-on-month; a capacity utilization rate of 69.82%, an increase of 0.55% month-on-month; a utilization rate of 76.00% excluding eliminated capacity, a decrease of 11.01% from the same period last year; and a steel mill profit rate of 77.91 %, an increase of 0.61% month-on-month. The daily average port congestion volume increased by 148,000 tons to 2.9917 million tons. Although the blast furnace operating rate, average daily molten iron output, and port congestion volume have all increased slightly according to Mysteel's statistics this week, we believe that this is only a short-term rhythm problem and does not change the general trend of declining iron ore demand.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counts that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across China is 12.6283 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, Australian ore 6411.80 increased by 19.1, Brazil ore 3491.18 increased by 33.84, trade ore 7044.50 increased by 38.3, pellets 388.61 increased by 4.53, iron ore concentrates 933.66 decreased by 6.51, lump ore 1948.05 increased by 35.41, coarse iron powder 9357.98 decreased by 44.43. The number of ships in the port increased by 7 to 199. It should be noted that the number of ships in the port has been at an absolute high in the past years, and the subsequent risk of inventory accumulation will still be greater.

On the whole, iron ore is currently restricted on the consumption side, and at the same time the supply side lacks support, it will still maintain a weak pattern. In recent months, plans for some steel mills to put blast furnaces into production have been delayed, and the withdrawal of production capacity has been relatively smooth, resulting in continuous compression of iron ore demand. Looking ahead, the trend of iron ore is likely to depend on the intensity of domestic production restrictions. According to our calculations, if the implementation of production restriction is less than 20%, the impact on iron ore will be small. If the implementation of production restriction is greater than 40%, it will be extremely negative for iron ore. According to our company's follow-up and understanding, there is a high probability that the production restriction policy will be strictly implemented, and we still maintain the suggestion of initiating a short position of iron ore when the market price hits high..

Strategy: None

Unilateral:tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. The performance of steel demand at home and abroad;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Port inventory continues to be destocked, and rubber prices fluctuate strongly.

Last week, mainly driven by the sharp drop in the surrounding crude oil prices, rubber futures prices pulled back from high. From the perspective of its own fundamentals, little change has been made. Raw material prices and continued destocking of domestic port inventories still support rubber prices. Therefore, prices stabilized and rebounded in the second half of the week.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of August 13 was 207,064 tons (+5,914), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 181,570 tons (-240). In the peak season of domestic rubber delivery, inventories continued to rise. As of August 8th, due to the limited arrivals at ports, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline slightly, and the absolute amount was also at a low level in recent years compared to the same period last year.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of August 12, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 63.85% (+1.17%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 60.2 (+0.78%). In the off-season of demand, the tire factory operating rate is still insufficient to recover, but the overseas snow tire production has brought the operating rate to continue to rise. In terms of seasonality, in late August, the operating rate is expected to usher in a seasonal improvement.

Opinion: At present, the domestic rubber demand side will gradually come out of the downturn. The overseas snow tire production peak season and seasonal demand peak season will bring about a continuous slight rebound in the operating rate of domestic downstream tires in the future. The supply side mainly focuses on the progress of domestic arrivals. Judging from the current domestic port inventory, due to the impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic this year, the pace of domestic arrivals has slowed down significantly, leading to continued destocking of domestic port inventory. With the further increase in the domestic tire operating rate in the future, if the arrival volume still cannot be increased, the trend of domestic port inventory destocking will be difficult to end, which will provide strong support for domestic rubber prices. As for the upward pressure in the future, RU mainly focuses on the arbitrage window for RSS3 imports and non-standard spreads. Before the price contradiction is obvious, it is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate strongly next week. Judging from the changes in later inventory, the spread between RU and NR is expected to be further narrowed.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risk points: Domestic supply may increase substantially, demand will continue to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funds may be tight.

Crude oil: IEA and OPEC cut the gap in the fourth quarter balance sheet.

Last week, the three major institutions issued their August reports. From the perspective of the monthly reports, they were relatively negative for the market, especially the IEA and OPEC revised down the fourth quarter demand growth. As a result, the COO of the fourth quarter of the balance sheet has been revised down considerably compared to the previous month. On the supply side, the three major institutions forecast experienced little change, and OPEC still maintains a steady increase in production.

Demand: EIA estimates that the demand growth in 2021 is 5.33 million barrels per day, unchanged from the previous month and the upward revision in Europe and the United States offsets the downward revision in the Asia-Pacific region. OPEC predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated at 5.95 million barrels per day, which is little changed from last month's forecast. The IEA predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated at 5.34 million barrels per day, which is revised down by 50,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast, mainly from China.

Non-OPEC supply: EIA expects that 2021 non-OPEC supply will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day year-on-year, which is an upward revision of 40,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast. EIA predicts that the total liquid supply in the United States will increase by 120,000 barrels per day in 2021 year-on-year, and it is expected to increase by 1.28 million barrels per day in 2022. OPEC expects 2021 non-OPEC supply to increase by 1.09 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 240,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast. This is mainly due to the substantial increase in Russian production by 150,000 barrels per day. OPEC predicts that the annual production of liquids in the United States will increase by 120,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is an upward revision of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The IEA expects that non-OPEC supply in 2021 will increase by 860,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is 40,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month.

OPEC production: According to EIA statistics, OPEC production in July increased by 680,000 barrels/day to 26.71 million barrels/day, mainly due to the increase in Saudi Arabia’s production by 500,000 barrels/day. According to OPEC's statistics, OPEC's production in July increased by 640,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 26.66 million barrels per day. OPEC's overall production reduction compliance rate is 115%, and its main increase in production comes from Saudi Arabia, while other countries have a small increase in production. According to IEA, OPEC production in July increased by 670,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 26.68 million barrels per day. OPEC's overall compliance rate is 116%, and other countries except Saudi Arabia have a small increase in production.

Call on OPEC: EIA estimates COO for 2021 to be 27.72 million barrels/day, which is revised down by 30,000 barrels/day from the previous month. According to the EIA balance sheet, the difference between supply and demand in the first to fourth quarters was -1.9 million barrels/day, -1.8 million barrels/day, -1 million barrels/day, and -300,000 barrels/day. The gap in the third quarter was significantly enlarged compared with last month's forecast. OPEC's COO for 2021 is estimated to be 27.4 million barrels per day, which is a decrease of 250,000 barrels per day from the previous month. From the first to the fourth quarter, the COO was 25.10, 27.20, 28.40, and 29 million barrels per day, of which the COO was significantly revised down in the fourth quarter. The IEA estimates COO for 2021 at 27.01 million barrels/day, which is revised down by 240,000 barrels/day from the previous month. From the first to the fourth quarter, the COO was 26.30, 26.10, 27.40, and 28.20 million barrels per day. The value was revised down in the second quarter, while the figure for the third and fourth quarters was revised down by a larger margin.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: A weaker U.S. dollar is relatively favorable for copper prices.

Spot situation: According to SMM news, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of August 13 was between 69,550 yuan/ton and 70,340 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copper was between 140 yuan/ton and 170 yuan/ton. Last week, the copper price basically remained at around 70,000 and showed a volatile pattern, and the premium and discount quotations were relatively following the market. However, the weakening of the US dollar may be relatively favorable for copper prices.

Short-term view:

Last week, the core CPI data of the United States was lower than the previous value, and the new crown epidemic in the United States again counterattacked, making the data released last Friday showed that US consumer confidence fell sharply in August. Investors weighed whether the Fed might continue to maintain its hawkish stance, which led to a significant fall in the US dollar index. However, this is relatively favorable for copper prices. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic electricity consumption in July announced last week also recorded a year-on-year growth of more than 12%, while the Chilean copper mine strikes continue to disrupt the market. Therefore, under the current circumstances, copper prices are expected to maintain a state of being easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Mid-term and long-term views:

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. After the Fed's meeting on interest rates in July, the U.S. dollar fell back, and the Fed has still not started to reduce the size of its current bond purchases. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, the cross-species arbitrage strategy is dominated by long allocation.

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Filament companies began to announce plans to reduce production.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA August balance sheet was revised from the mid-range destocking to near the flat level; the inflection point of the inventory accumulation was advanced to near the end of August; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to initiate long positions after processing fees were compressed by the production reduction of filament companies.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.

铁矿石：供应缺乏故事，铁矿难改下跌格局

受限产政策逐步落地影响，铁矿近一个月开启震荡下跌模式。上周期货盘面延续偏弱格局，主力01合约收盘841.5元/吨，较周一开盘下跌58.5元/吨。现货方面共振下跌，截止上周五青岛港PB粉报1122元/吨，较周一早盘下跌73元/吨。超特粉报770元/吨，较周一早盘下跌75元/吨。同时普氏62%指数已回落至160.85美元/吨。成交方面，上周主要港口日均成交79万吨，处于历年绝对地位。

供应方面，本期Mysteel澳大利亚巴西19港铁矿发运总量2566.6万吨，环比增加94.2万吨，其中力拓两港发运发力，发运量创今年新高。全球铁矿石发运总量3215万吨，环比增加89.3万吨。中国45港到港总量2663.4万吨，环比增加446.8万吨；北方六港到港总量为1426.3万吨，环比增加280.8万吨。从近期海关公布的进口数据，以及海外生铁消费的恢复，造成的分流，预期国内铁矿供给将同比下降。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率75.00%，环比上周增加0.39%，同比去年下降16.93%；高炉炼铁产能利用率85.89%，环比增加0.17%，同比下降9.27%；钢厂盈利率89.18%，环比增加1.30%，同比下降6.06%；日均铁水产量228.63万吨，环比增加0.45万吨，同比下降24.67万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率57.60%，环比增加0.41%，产能利用率69.82%，环比增加0.55%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为76.00%，较去年同期下降11.01%，钢厂盈利率77.91%，环比增加0.61%。日均疏港量299.17万吨增14.8万吨。虽然Mysteel本周高炉开工率、日均铁水产量、疏港量小幅增加，但我们认为这只是短期节奏问题，并不改变铁矿需求下降这个大趋势。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12628.30万吨，环比减少11万吨。分量方面，澳矿6411.80增19.1，巴西矿3491.18增33.84，贸易矿7044.50增38.3，球团388.61增4.53，精粉933.66降6.51，块矿1948.05增35.41，粗粉9357.98降44.43；在港船舶数199条增7条。需注意近期在港船舶数量处于历年绝对高位，后续仍将面临较大累库风险。

整体来看，目前铁矿在消费端受限制，同时供给端又缺乏故事的情况下，仍将维持偏弱格局，近几个月来部分钢厂高炉投产计划不断推迟，而产能退出相对顺利，铁矿需求不断压缩。展望后市，铁矿石的走势大概率取决于国内压产的力度。根据我司测算，如果压产执行力度小于20%，对铁矿影响较小。如果压产执行力度大于40%，对铁矿则极为利空。据我司跟踪了解，压产政策大概率会严格执行，继续维持逢高空配建议。

策略：

单边 ：中期偏空

跨品种：多成材空矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，海内外钢铁需求表现，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：港口库存延续去化，胶价偏强震荡

上周橡胶期价冲高回落，主要在周边原油价格大幅下挫的带动下。自身基本面来看，变化不大，原料价格以及国内港口库存延续去库仍对胶价产生支撑，因此，下半周价格企稳回升。

国内交易所总库存截止8月13为207064吨（+5914），期货仓单量181570吨（-240），国内割胶旺季，库存延续回升态势。截至8月8日，因到港量仍有限，青岛保税区库存延续小幅回落，绝对量同比也处于近些年的低位。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止8月12日，全钢胎企业开工率63.85%（+1.17%），半钢胎企业开工率60.2（+0.78%）。需求淡季，轮胎厂开工率回升动力仍不足，但海外雪地胎生产带来开工率继续回升。季节性来看，8月下旬，开工率有望迎来季节性改善。

观点：目前国内橡胶需求端将逐步走出低迷阶段，海外雪地胎生产旺季以及季节性需求旺季将带来后期国内下游轮胎开工率还将延续小幅回升的态势。供应端则主要关注国内到港的进度，从目前的国内港口库存来看，今年因东南亚疫情的影响，国内的到港节奏明显放缓，导致国内港口库存持续去化，随着后期国内轮胎开工率的进一步提升，如果到港量仍不能提升，则国内港口库存去化的趋势难以结束，对于国内橡胶价格支撑较强。后期上行的压力，RU主要关注烟片进口套利窗口以及非标价差，价格矛盾没有明显出现之前，预计下周胶价有望延续偏强震荡。从后期库存的变动来看，RU与NR的价差有望进一步缩窄。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：IEA、OPEC削减四季度平衡表缺口

上周三大机构发布了8月报，从月报情况上看，相对偏空，尤其是IEA与OPEC下修了四季度的需求增长，导致平衡表四季度的COO相对上月有较大幅度下修，供应方面三大机构预测变化不大，OPEC仍旧维持稳定增产。

需求：EIA预计对2021年需求增长预估为533万桶/日，较上月无变化，欧美上修抵消亚太下修。OPEC预计2021年需求增长预估为595万桶/日，较上月预测几无变化。IEA预计2021年需求增长预估为534万桶/日，较上月预测下修5万桶/日，主要来自中国。

非OPEC供应：EIA预计2021非OPEC供应同比增加110万桶/日，较上月预测上修4万桶/日，EIA预计2021年美国液体总供应同比增加12万桶/日，预计2022年同比增加128万桶/日。OPEC预计2021非OPEC供应增加109万桶/日，较上月预测上修24万桶/日，主要是俄罗斯产量大幅上修15万桶/日，OPEC预计美国液体全年产量同比增加12万桶/日，较上月上修3万桶/日。IEA对2021年非OPEC供应预计同比增加86万桶/日，较上月下修4万桶/日。

OPEC产量：EIA口径7月OPEC产量环比增加68万桶/日至2671万桶/日，主要是沙特产量环比增加50万桶/日。OPEC口径7月OPEC产量环比增加64万桶/日至2666万桶/日，OPEC整体减产合规率在115%，主要增产来自沙特，其他国家增产幅度较小。IEA口径7月OPEC产量环比增加67万桶/日至2668万桶/日，OPEC整体合规率为116%，除沙特外其他国家增产较小。

Call on OPEC：EIA对2021年COO预估为2772万桶/日，较上月下修3万桶/日，根据EIA平衡表，一到四季度供需差值为-190万桶/日、-180万桶/日、-100万桶/日、-30万桶/日，三季度的缺口较上月预测显著放大。OPEC对2021年COO预估为2740万桶/日，较上月下修25万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2510、2720、2840、2900万桶/日，四季度COO显著下修。IEA对2021年COO预估为2701万桶/日，较上月下修24万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2630、2610、2740、2820万桶/日，二季度下修，三四季度下修较大。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：美元走弱对于铜价相对有利

现货情况：据SMM讯，8月13日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于69,550元/吨至70,340元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价则是运行于140元/吨至170元/吨之间。上周铜价基本仍然维持7万一线呈现出震荡格局，升贴水报价相对随行就市。不过美元的走弱对于铜价而言或许相对有利。

短期观点：

上周，美国方面的核心CPI数据低于前值，叠加新冠疫情在美国的再度反扑，使得上周五公布的数据显示美国8月消费者信心大幅下降，促使投资者权衡美联储是否可能继续维持为鹰派立场，这使得美元指数出现较大幅度回落。这对于铜价而言，相对较为有利。而在基本面方面，上周公布的国内7月用电量也录得超过12%的同比增长，而智力方面铜矿罢工的事宜仍在不断干扰市场，因此在目前情况下，铜价预计维持易涨难跌的状态。

中长期观点：

宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，在7月Fed议息会议后，美元出现回落，美联储仍然没有开始缩减当下购债规模。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前基本面维持相对中性的态度。不过宏观对于铜价走势则相对有利。

策略：1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 国内交仓情况

PTA：长丝企业开始公布减产计划

平衡表展望：长丝检修全检修假设背景下，PTA8月平衡表从中幅去库修正至微幅去库或走平附近，9月累库拐点。亚洲PX8月平衡表走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待长丝减产压缩PTA加工费后再布局多单。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯利润低位下的降负幅度。