Iron ore: The lack of support from the supply side makes it difficult for iron ore to change its downward trend.
Due to the gradual implementation of the restricted production policy, iron ore has started a shock-declining mode in the past month. The futures market continued to be weak last week, the main 01 contract closed at 841.5 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan/ton from Monday's opening. On the spot side, there was a resonant decline. As of last Friday, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,122 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton from Monday's early trading. SSF reported 770 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from Monday’s early trading. At the same time, the Platts 62% index has fallen back to 160.85 US dollars/ton. In terms of transactions, the average daily transaction volume of major ports last week was 790,000 tons, which was an absolute low value over the years.
In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics, the total iron ore shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 25.666 million tons, an increase of 942,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, the volume of Rio Tinto's two ports hit a new high this year. The global iron ore shipment totaled 32.15 million tons, an increase of 893,000 tons from the previous month. China’s 45 ports’arrivals totaled 26.634 million tons, an increase of 4.468 million tons from the previous month; the six northern ports’ arrivals totaled 14.263 million tons, an increase of 2.808 million tons from the previous month. From the recent import data released by the customs and the diversion caused by the recovery of overseas pig iron consumption, it is expected that domestic iron ore supply will decline year-on-year.
In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 75.00%, an increase of 0.39% from last week and a decrease of 16.93% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 85.89%, an increase of 0.17% from the previous month, and a decrease of 9.27% from the same period last year. The profit rate of steel mills was 89.18%, a month-on-month increase of 1.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.06%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.2863 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,500 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 246,700 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 57.60%, an increase of 0.41% month-on-month; a capacity utilization rate of 69.82%, an increase of 0.55% month-on-month; a utilization rate of 76.00% excluding eliminated capacity, a decrease of 11.01% from the same period last year; and a steel mill profit rate of 77.91 %, an increase of 0.61% month-on-month. The daily average port congestion volume increased by 148,000 tons to 2.9917 million tons. Although the blast furnace operating rate, average daily molten iron output, and port congestion volume have all increased slightly according to Mysteel's statistics this week, we believe that this is only a short-term rhythm problem and does not change the general trend of declining iron ore demand.
In terms of inventory, Mysteel counts that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across China is 12.6283 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, Australian ore 6411.80 increased by 19.1, Brazil ore 3491.18 increased by 33.84, trade ore 7044.50 increased by 38.3, pellets 388.61 increased by 4.53, iron ore concentrates 933.66 decreased by 6.51, lump ore 1948.05 increased by 35.41, coarse iron powder 9357.98 decreased by 44.43. The number of ships in the port increased by 7 to 199. It should be noted that the number of ships in the port has been at an absolute high in the past years, and the subsequent risk of inventory accumulation will still be greater.
On the whole, iron ore is currently restricted on the consumption side, and at the same time the supply side lacks support, it will still maintain a weak pattern. In recent months, plans for some steel mills to put blast furnaces into production have been delayed, and the withdrawal of production capacity has been relatively smooth, resulting in continuous compression of iron ore demand. Looking ahead, the trend of iron ore is likely to depend on the intensity of domestic production restrictions. According to our calculations, if the implementation of production restriction is less than 20%, the impact on iron ore will be small. If the implementation of production restriction is greater than 40%, it will be extremely negative for iron ore. According to our company's follow-up and understanding, there is a high probability that the production restriction policy will be strictly implemented, and we still maintain the suggestion of initiating a short position of iron ore when the market price hits high..
Unilateral:tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;
2. The performance of steel demand at home and abroad;
3. Shipping data may change drastically;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
Rubber: Port inventory continues to be destocked, and rubber prices fluctuate strongly.
Last week, mainly driven by the sharp drop in the surrounding crude oil prices, rubber futures prices pulled back from high. From the perspective of its own fundamentals, little change has been made. Raw material prices and continued destocking of domestic port inventories still support rubber prices. Therefore, prices stabilized and rebounded in the second half of the week.
The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of August 13 was 207,064 tons (+5,914), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 181,570 tons (-240). In the peak season of domestic rubber delivery, inventories continued to rise. As of August 8th, due to the limited arrivals at ports, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline slightly, and the absolute amount was also at a low level in recent years compared to the same period last year.
In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of August 12, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 63.85% (+1.17%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 60.2 (+0.78%). In the off-season of demand, the tire factory operating rate is still insufficient to recover, but the overseas snow tire production has brought the operating rate to continue to rise. In terms of seasonality, in late August, the operating rate is expected to usher in a seasonal improvement.
Opinion: At present, the domestic rubber demand side will gradually come out of the downturn. The overseas snow tire production peak season and seasonal demand peak season will bring about a continuous slight rebound in the operating rate of domestic downstream tires in the future. The supply side mainly focuses on the progress of domestic arrivals. Judging from the current domestic port inventory, due to the impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic this year, the pace of domestic arrivals has slowed down significantly, leading to continued destocking of domestic port inventory. With the further increase in the domestic tire operating rate in the future, if the arrival volume still cannot be increased, the trend of domestic port inventory destocking will be difficult to end, which will provide strong support for domestic rubber prices. As for the upward pressure in the future, RU mainly focuses on the arbitrage window for RSS3 imports and non-standard spreads. Before the price contradiction is obvious, it is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate strongly next week. Judging from the changes in later inventory, the spread between RU and NR is expected to be further narrowed.
Strategy: Cautiously bullish
Risk points: Domestic supply may increase substantially, demand will continue to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funds may be tight.
Crude oil: IEA and OPEC cut the gap in the fourth quarter balance sheet.
Last week, the three major institutions issued their August reports. From the perspective of the monthly reports, they were relatively negative for the market, especially the IEA and OPEC revised down the fourth quarter demand growth. As a result, the COO of the fourth quarter of the balance sheet has been revised down considerably compared to the previous month. On the supply side, the three major institutions forecast experienced little change, and OPEC still maintains a steady increase in production.
Demand: EIA estimates that the demand growth in 2021 is 5.33 million barrels per day, unchanged from the previous month and the upward revision in Europe and the United States offsets the downward revision in the Asia-Pacific region. OPEC predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated at 5.95 million barrels per day, which is little changed from last month's forecast. The IEA predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated at 5.34 million barrels per day, which is revised down by 50,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast, mainly from China.
Non-OPEC supply: EIA expects that 2021 non-OPEC supply will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day year-on-year, which is an upward revision of 40,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast. EIA predicts that the total liquid supply in the United States will increase by 120,000 barrels per day in 2021 year-on-year, and it is expected to increase by 1.28 million barrels per day in 2022. OPEC expects 2021 non-OPEC supply to increase by 1.09 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 240,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast. This is mainly due to the substantial increase in Russian production by 150,000 barrels per day. OPEC predicts that the annual production of liquids in the United States will increase by 120,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is an upward revision of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The IEA expects that non-OPEC supply in 2021 will increase by 860,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is 40,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month.
OPEC production: According to EIA statistics, OPEC production in July increased by 680,000 barrels/day to 26.71 million barrels/day, mainly due to the increase in Saudi Arabia’s production by 500,000 barrels/day. According to OPEC's statistics, OPEC's production in July increased by 640,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 26.66 million barrels per day. OPEC's overall production reduction compliance rate is 115%, and its main increase in production comes from Saudi Arabia, while other countries have a small increase in production. According to IEA, OPEC production in July increased by 670,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 26.68 million barrels per day. OPEC's overall compliance rate is 116%, and other countries except Saudi Arabia have a small increase in production.
Call on OPEC: EIA estimates COO for 2021 to be 27.72 million barrels/day, which is revised down by 30,000 barrels/day from the previous month. According to the EIA balance sheet, the difference between supply and demand in the first to fourth quarters was -1.9 million barrels/day, -1.8 million barrels/day, -1 million barrels/day, and -300,000 barrels/day. The gap in the third quarter was significantly enlarged compared with last month's forecast. OPEC's COO for 2021 is estimated to be 27.4 million barrels per day, which is a decrease of 250,000 barrels per day from the previous month. From the first to the fourth quarter, the COO was 25.10, 27.20, 28.40, and 29 million barrels per day, of which the COO was significantly revised down in the fourth quarter. The IEA estimates COO for 2021 at 27.01 million barrels/day, which is revised down by 240,000 barrels/day from the previous month. From the first to the fourth quarter, the COO was 26.30, 26.10, 27.40, and 28.20 million barrels per day. The value was revised down in the second quarter, while the figure for the third and fourth quarters was revised down by a larger margin.
Copper: A weaker U.S. dollar is relatively favorable for copper prices.
Spot situation: According to SMM news, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of August 13 was between 69,550 yuan/ton and 70,340 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copper was between 140 yuan/ton and 170 yuan/ton. Last week, the copper price basically remained at around 70,000 and showed a volatile pattern, and the premium and discount quotations were relatively following the market. However, the weakening of the US dollar may be relatively favorable for copper prices.
Last week, the core CPI data of the United States was lower than the previous value, and the new crown epidemic in the United States again counterattacked, making the data released last Friday showed that US consumer confidence fell sharply in August. Investors weighed whether the Fed might continue to maintain its hawkish stance, which led to a significant fall in the US dollar index. However, this is relatively favorable for copper prices. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic electricity consumption in July announced last week also recorded a year-on-year growth of more than 12%, while the Chilean copper mine strikes continue to disrupt the market. Therefore, under the current circumstances, copper prices are expected to maintain a state of being easy to rise but difficult to fall.
Mid-term and long-term views:
On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. After the Fed's meeting on interest rates in July, the U.S. dollar fell back, and the Fed has still not started to reduce the size of its current bond purchases. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, the cross-species arbitrage strategy is dominated by long allocation.
1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: Filament companies began to announce plans to reduce production.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA August balance sheet was revised from the mid-range destocking to near the flat level; the inflection point of the inventory accumulation was advanced to near the end of August; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.
(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to initiate long positions after processing fees were compressed by the production reduction of filament companies.
(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.
Call on OPEC：EIA对2021年COO预估为2772万桶/日，较上月下修3万桶/日，根据EIA平衡表，一到四季度供需差值为-190万桶/日、-180万桶/日、-100万桶/日、-30万桶/日，三季度的缺口较上月预测显著放大。OPEC对2021年COO预估为2740万桶/日，较上月下修25万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2510、2720、2840、2900万桶/日，四季度COO显著下修。IEA对2021年COO预估为2701万桶/日，较上月下修24万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2630、2610、2740、2820万桶/日，二季度下修，三四季度下修较大。
策略：1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓