What environment is conducive to the small-cap market and what environment is conducive to the large-cap market?
First, the environment that is conducive to the large-cap blue-chip stocks: ① The macro combination that is most conducive to the large-cap blue-chip stocks is "moderate growth + moderate inflation." In the 50 years of US stocks, the winning rate of large-cap blue chip stocks was 75%, and that of small-cap stocks was 25%. ② Whether the year of the event crisis will have a distinct style depends on the magnitude of the impact of the event. Small events continue the big-cap style, while big events switch to the small-cap style in stages. ③The style of the industry's large and small caps may be independent of the entire market, depending on the life cycle of the industry. Start-ups tend to be small caps, and mature industry tend to be large caps.
Second, the environment that is conducive to small-cap stocks: ① After the event crisis (for 1 year): The performance stage of small-cap stocks brought about by a low base number is dominant, and it mostly occurs in the years after the event crisis. ② The era of extreme turbulence (lasting 2-5 years): The economy has stagnated for a long time, and the market is often dominated by small-cap themes. ③ After the bursting of the asset bubble (continuing for 3-5 years): policy tightening pierced the bubble, and with the economic downturn, high-value assets adjust the high valuation.
Behind the style of large and small caps: What determines the excess returns of US stocks? Behind the large and small market quotations reflect the changes in the relative performance brought about by changes in the macro environment or the industry structure. What plays a role in the style factor is also the market's pursuit of mid- to short-term profitability. From the perspective of the 50 years of U.S. stocks from 1970 to 2019, the level of rise and fall and the level of net profit growth are basically linearly positive. This rule, whether it is A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, or U.S. stocks, has similarities.
What do you think of the current A-share style?
The current style of small and medium caps comes from: First, in the second half of the recovery, the performance of small and medium market capitalization is more flexible. Second, performance convergence drives extreme valuation differentiation corrections. The third is the transition from the stock economy to the incremental economy, and the emerging economies are experiencing high growth. Looking ahead to the market, from the perspective of relative performance trends and the difference in equity and bond yields, the style is still biased towards the small and medium cap style at least this year. However, due to differences in the macro and industrial backgrounds, there is a high probability that the small-cap style that has been seen in the US stock market a few years after the burst of the "Beautiful 50" bubble will not appear. In the long run, core blue chips with high profitability (whether it is consumer, pharmaceutical or technology) are the direction with a higher winning rate.
第一，有利于大盘蓝筹股的环境：① 最有利于大盘蓝筹股的宏观组合是“温和增长+温和通胀”。美股50年，大盘蓝筹股的胜率为75%，小盘股胜率为25%。② 事件危机的年份是否会有明显的风格，取决于事件冲击程度的大小。小事件则延续大盘风格，大事件则阶段切换小盘风格。③行业的大小盘风格可能独立于全市场，取决于行业所处生命周期，初创偏小盘，成熟偏大盘。
第二，有利于小盘题材股的环境：① 事件危机之后（持续1年）：低基数带来的小盘股业绩阶段占优，多出现于事件危机之后的年份。② 极端动荡年代（持续2-5年）：经济长时间停滞，市场往往由小盘题材行情主导。③ 资产大泡沫破灭之后（持续3-5年）：政策紧缩刺破泡沫，伴随经济下滑，高估值资产杀估值。