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Daily morning for Crude oil, PTA, natural rubber, iron ore, copper Iro (ZH & EN) 20210818

Fang submitted 2021-08-18 09:51:11

Iron ore: The intensity of crude steel production restriction remained unchanged, and iron ore futures pulled back from high.

Yesterday, the Steel Union announced the iron ore inventory of last week. The data showed that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 127 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons from last week. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 834 points, down 17 points from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the spot price of imported iron ore ports dropped slightly in the afternoon session, with a cumulative drop of 5-10 yuan/ton throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines currently reported 1115-1125 yuan/ton, SSF 770-775 yuan/ton; Caofeidian Port PB fines 1110-1120 yuan/ton, SSF 785-795 yuan/ton, Tianjin Port PB fines 1130-1135 yuan/ton. In terms of basis, as the spot price fell, the basis of iron ore futures and spot prices was gradually repaired. The PB fines basis corresponding to the 09 contract was 270 points, and the figure for SSF was 35 points.

On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain a high price level. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore is recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Domestic port inventory continues to fall

On August 17, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,915 (+225) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1465 yuan/ton (-150); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 93,721 (+6,850) lots, ,the short position was 136,567 (+2,709) lots, and the net short position was 39,846 (-4,141) lots.

On August 17, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,795 (+240) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,790 (+5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,775 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,735 (+5) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -558 (-199) yuan/ton.

As of August 13: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 207,064 (+5,914) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 181,570 (-240) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.8 (+0.34), cup lump 48.45 (+0.45), latex 51.3 (+0.3), RSS3 56.8 (+0.72).

As of August 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 63.85% (+1.17%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60.2 (+0.78%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the rubber futures price continued its strong trend. Among them, NR's recent performance is relatively strong, mainly related to the domestic inventory structure. The latest domestic port inventory announced yesterday continued to decline, and based on the gradual increase in domestic raw materials, RU inventory ushered in a inventory accumulation. Poor domestic demand for concentrated latex this year has led to a year-on-year increase in the production of full latex, which will become the main factor to suppress the price of RU in the future. However, the current domestic raw material prices continue to rise, coupled with low inventories, the support is still strong, and the prices of overseas raw materials are also recovering. It is expected that rubber prices are expected to maintain fluctuating at a strong level.

Strategy: cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API crude oil and refined oil inventories declined.

Recently, Brent Dubai EFS fell significantly, from the previous US$4/barrel to below US$3/barrel. Why is EFS still falling significantly when the fundamentals of the Asia-Pacific region are weaker than those of Europe and the United States? We believe that the main reasons are: 1. The crude oil imports of Asia-Pacific countries have slowed down significantly in recent months. The imports of China, India, Japan and South Korea fell to a historical low of 18 million barrels per day in June. These countries have mainly reduced the purchase of oil types linked to Brent crude oil in West Africa, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean because of the poor economics of transatlantic arbitrage. 2. U.S. crude oil exports remain high. On the one hand, the United States has maintained high output to the Asia-Pacific, such as India and Taiwan. On the other hand, US exports to Europe remained above 1 million barrels per day. 3. European refineries are about to enter the maintenance period, and the operating rate is expected to fall from a high level. On the whole, the crude oil spot market resources in the Atlantic Basin have gradually increased, and the recent discounts of some oil types have been relatively weak.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: A stronger US dollar suppressed copper prices, but premiums and discounts remained relatively high.

Spot: According to SMM, yesterday was the first trading day after the rolling operation. The market price was still around 69,800 yuan/ton, but it was difficult to see a lot of buying interest in the market, and the buyer and seller were basically maintaining a wait-and-see attitude under the stalemate. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 240 yuan/ton, but there were few inquirers in the market. Even if some holders slightly adjusted their quotation to a premium of 230 yuan/ton, there were still few large transactions in the market. The overall supply of Standard-Grade Copper was not much, which made holders unwilling to adjust prices too quickly. After the second trading session, a small amount of spot exchange demand resulted in a small number of transactions for goods with a premium of 220 yuan/ton, but the overall price support sentiment kept the market price at a premium of 230-240 yuan/ton. Due to the continuous inflow of brands such as CCC-P and ENM, High-Grade Copper has ample supply in the market, which has caused holders to sell due to panic. This also made it difficult for High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper to see a large spread. Only Guixi-Copper holders still had a slight price support sentiment, making the overall quotation at a premium of 230-250 yuan/ton. The source of Hydro-Copper is relatively scarce, and the overall premium is quoted at 140-160 yuan/ton under the guidance of BMK and other brands' quotations. However, downstream buying interest was low, basically maintaining rigid demand purchases. In addition, with the closure of the Alashankou port and the inflow of BMK, the supply of Hydro-Copper may be further tightened.

Opinion: Last night, with the strengthening of the US dollar, the price of copper showed a more obvious fall. However, yesterdays spot premiums and discounts were also maintained at a relatively high level, and some brands also showed a relatively tight situation. Therefore, the demand for copper varieties does not immediately weaken after entering the off-season. The current copper price is expected to remain dominated by shocks.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the US dollar trend was relatively strong after the interest rate meeting, it was largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, the cross-species arbitrage strategy is dominated by long allocation.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The implementation of the rate of filament production reduction is relatively slower.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA August balance sheet was revised from the mid-range destocking to near the flat level; the inflection point of the inventory accumulation was advanced to near the end of August; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to initiate long positions after processing fees were compressed by the production reduction of filament companies.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.

铁矿:粗钢压产力度不减,铁矿期货冲高回落

昨日,钢联公布了上周铁矿石库存情况,数据显示:45港铁矿总库存1.27亿吨,环比上周增26万吨。至收盘,铁矿01合约收于834点,较上一交易日下降17点。现货方面,进口铁矿港口现货午后价格小幅下跌,全天累计下跌5-10/吨。现青岛港PB1115-1125/吨,超特粉770-775/吨;曹妃甸港PB1110-1120/吨,超特粉785-795/吨,天津港PB1130-1135/吨。基差方面,随着现货的下跌,铁矿期现基差逐渐得到修复,09合约对应PB粉基差270点、超特粉35点接近平水。

整体来看,目前黑色行情注定由政策主导。由于压产,迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩,同、环比大降,大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力,但随着压产的不断深入,铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期,铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化,价格虽然下跌,但仍能维持高价格水平,随着压产的范围扩大,铁矿压力将逐步加大,推荐远月做空机会。

策略:

单边:中期看空

跨期:无

跨品种:多焦炭空铁矿(01合约)、多成材(01合约)空铁矿石(01合约)

期现:无

期权:逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点:成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期,成材端淡季需求表现不及预期,发运数据大幅改变,疫情加重等。

橡胶:国内港口库存继续回落

17号,RU主力收盘14915+225)元/吨,混合胶报价11900/吨(-150),主力合约基差-1465/吨(-150);前二十主力多头持仓93721+6850),空头持仓136567+2709),净空持仓39846-4141)。

17号,NR主力收盘价11795+240)元/吨,青岛保税区泰国标胶1790+5)美元/吨,马来西亚标胶1775美元/吨(0),印尼标胶1735+5)美元/吨。主力合约基差-558-199)元/吨。

截至813日:交易所总库存207064+5914),交易所仓单181570-240)。

原料:生胶片52.8+0.34),杯胶48.45+0.45),胶水51.3+0.3),烟片56.8+0.72)。

截止812日,国内全钢胎开工率为63.85%+1.17%),国内半钢胎开工率为60.2%(+0.78%)。

观点:昨天橡胶期价延续偏强走势,其中NR近期表现相对强势,主要跟国内的库存结构相关,昨天公布的最新国内港口库存继续下降,而基于国内原料的逐步上量,RU库存迎来累库。今年国内浓乳需求较差导致全乳产量同比增加,这将成为后期压制RU价格的主要因素,但目前国内原料价格延续回升,叠加库存偏低,支撑还较强,而海外原料价格也在回升中。预计胶价有望维持偏强震荡。

策略:谨慎偏多

风险:产量大幅增加,库存继续累积,需求大幅减少等。

原油:API原油与成品油库存下降

近期Brent Dubai EFS显著下跌,从此前的4美元/桶下跌至3美元/桶以下,为何在亚太基本面弱于欧美的情况下,EFS仍旧显著下跌,我们认为主要的原因有:1、近几个月亚太国家的原油进口量显著放缓,中印日韩四国进口量在6月份跌至1800万桶/日的历史低位,这些国家主要削减了西非、北海、地中海等于布伦特原油挂钩的油种采购,因为跨大西洋套利的经济性较差;2、美国原油出口依然维持在高位,一方面美国维持了对亚太的高输出,如对印度、台湾地区等,另一方面美国对欧洲的出口维持在100万桶/日以上;3、欧洲炼厂即将进入检修期,开工率预计将会高位回落。综合来看,大西洋盆地的原油现货市场资源逐步增加,部分船货开始转化为浮仓,近期部分油种的贴水表现相对疲软。

策略:中性

风险:暂无

铜:美元走强打压铜价 但升贴水维持相对高位

现货方面:据SMM讯,昨日是交割换月后第一个交易日,但盘面依旧围绕在69800/吨附近整理,市场难见大量买兴,买卖双方僵持之下基本维持观望态势,早市平水铜始报于升水240/吨,但市场询价者寥寥,部分持货商小幅调价至升水230/吨市场依旧难闻大量成交,平水铜整体货源不多,导致持货商也不愿过快调价,第二时段后少量换现需求下听闻升水220/吨少量成交,但整体挺价情绪依旧维持在升水230-240/吨。好铜由于CCC-P以及ENM等品牌的持续流入导致市场货源充裕,持货商恐慌性抛售,导致好铜和平水铜难见价差,仅有贵溪铜持货商还有小幅挺价情绪,整体报至升水230-250/吨。湿法铜货源则相对稀缺,仅在BMK等品牌报价指引下整体报至升水140-160/吨,但下游买兴难见起色,基本维持刚需采购,外加阿拉山口口岸关闭,BMK流入受阻的情况下,湿法铜货源恐进一步趋紧。

观点:昨日晚间,在美元走强的情况下,铜价呈现出了较为明显的回落。不过昨日现货升贴水报价也同样维持在相对较高的位置,并且部分品牌也呈现出相对吃紧的情况,故此铜品种目前也没有出现进入淡季之后需求立刻转弱的情况。当下铜价预计仍将以震荡格局为主。

中长线看,宏观方面,全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策,虽然此次议息会议后,美元走势也一度相对强劲,但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面,目前TC价格持续回升,加之国内抛储传言落地,故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面,而需求端,中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功,且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动,因此总体而言,在跨品种套利中以多头配置为主。

策略:1. 单边:中性 2. 跨市:暂缓 3. 跨期:暂缓;4. 期权:暂缓

关注点:1.美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA:长丝减产速率兑现偏慢

平衡表展望:长丝检修全检修假设背景下,PTA8月平衡表从中幅去库修正至小幅去库,9月累库拐点。亚洲PX8月平衡表走平。

策略建议:(1)单边:观望,等待长丝减产压缩PTA加工费后再布局多单。(2)跨期:9-1价差观望。

风险:PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控,浙石化PX负荷情况,聚酯利润低位下的降负幅度。

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