Iron ore: The intensity of crude steel production restriction remained unchanged, and iron ore futures pulled back from high.
Yesterday, the Steel Union announced the iron ore inventory of last week. The data showed that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 127 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons from last week. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 834 points, down 17 points from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the spot price of imported iron ore ports dropped slightly in the afternoon session, with a cumulative drop of 5-10 yuan/ton throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines currently reported 1115-1125 yuan/ton, SSF 770-775 yuan/ton; Caofeidian Port PB fines 1110-1120 yuan/ton, SSF 785-795 yuan/ton, Tianjin Port PB fines 1130-1135 yuan/ton. In terms of basis, as the spot price fell, the basis of iron ore futures and spot prices was gradually repaired. The PB fines basis corresponding to the 09 contract was 270 points, and the figure for SSF was 35 points.
On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain a high price level. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore is recommended.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option when price hits high
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;
2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;
3. Shipping data may change drastically;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
Rubber: Domestic port inventory continues to fall
On August 17, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,915 (+225) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1465 yuan/ton (-150); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 93,721 (+6,850) lots, ,the short position was 136,567 (+2,709) lots, and the net short position was 39,846 (-4,141) lots.
On August 17, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,795 (+240) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,790 (+5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,775 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,735 (+5) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -558 (-199) yuan/ton.
As of August 13: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 207,064 (+5,914) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 181,570 (-240) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.8 (+0.34), cup lump 48.45 (+0.45), latex 51.3 (+0.3), RSS3 56.8 (+0.72).
As of August 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 63.85% (+1.17%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60.2 (+0.78%).
Opinion: Yesterday, the rubber futures price continued its strong trend. Among them, NR's recent performance is relatively strong, mainly related to the domestic inventory structure. The latest domestic port inventory announced yesterday continued to decline, and based on the gradual increase in domestic raw materials, RU inventory ushered in a inventory accumulation. Poor domestic demand for concentrated latex this year has led to a year-on-year increase in the production of full latex, which will become the main factor to suppress the price of RU in the future. However, the current domestic raw material prices continue to rise, coupled with low inventories, the support is still strong, and the prices of overseas raw materials are also recovering. It is expected that rubber prices are expected to maintain fluctuating at a strong level.
Strategy: cautiously bullish
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: API crude oil and refined oil inventories declined.
Recently, Brent Dubai EFS fell significantly, from the previous US$4/barrel to below US$3/barrel. Why is EFS still falling significantly when the fundamentals of the Asia-Pacific region are weaker than those of Europe and the United States? We believe that the main reasons are: 1. The crude oil imports of Asia-Pacific countries have slowed down significantly in recent months. The imports of China, India, Japan and South Korea fell to a historical low of 18 million barrels per day in June. These countries have mainly reduced the purchase of oil types linked to Brent crude oil in West Africa, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean because of the poor economics of transatlantic arbitrage. 2. U.S. crude oil exports remain high. On the one hand, the United States has maintained high output to the Asia-Pacific, such as India and Taiwan. On the other hand, US exports to Europe remained above 1 million barrels per day. 3. European refineries are about to enter the maintenance period, and the operating rate is expected to fall from a high level. On the whole, the crude oil spot market resources in the Atlantic Basin have gradually increased, and the recent discounts of some oil types have been relatively weak.
Copper: A stronger US dollar suppressed copper prices, but premiums and discounts remained relatively high.
Spot: According to SMM, yesterday was the first trading day after the rolling operation. The market price was still around 69,800 yuan/ton, but it was difficult to see a lot of buying interest in the market, and the buyer and seller were basically maintaining a wait-and-see attitude under the stalemate. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 240 yuan/ton, but there were few inquirers in the market. Even if some holders slightly adjusted their quotation to a premium of 230 yuan/ton, there were still few large transactions in the market. The overall supply of Standard-Grade Copper was not much, which made holders unwilling to adjust prices too quickly. After the second trading session, a small amount of spot exchange demand resulted in a small number of transactions for goods with a premium of 220 yuan/ton, but the overall price support sentiment kept the market price at a premium of 230-240 yuan/ton. Due to the continuous inflow of brands such as CCC-P and ENM, High-Grade Copper has ample supply in the market, which has caused holders to sell due to panic. This also made it difficult for High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper to see a large spread. Only Guixi-Copper holders still had a slight price support sentiment, making the overall quotation at a premium of 230-250 yuan/ton. The source of Hydro-Copper is relatively scarce, and the overall premium is quoted at 140-160 yuan/ton under the guidance of BMK and other brands' quotations. However, downstream buying interest was low, basically maintaining rigid demand purchases. In addition, with the closure of the Alashankou port and the inflow of BMK, the supply of Hydro-Copper may be further tightened.
Opinion: Last night, with the strengthening of the US dollar, the price of copper showed a more obvious fall. However, yesterday’s spot premiums and discounts were also maintained at a relatively high level, and some brands also showed a relatively tight situation. Therefore, the demand for copper varieties does not immediately weaken after entering the off-season. The current copper price is expected to remain dominated by shocks.
On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the US dollar trend was relatively strong after the interest rate meeting, it was largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. Therefore, in general, the cross-species arbitrage strategy is dominated by long allocation.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: The implementation of the rate of filament production reduction is relatively slower.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA August balance sheet was revised from the mid-range destocking to near the flat level; the inflection point of the inventory accumulation was advanced to near the end of August; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.
(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to initiate long positions after processing fees were compressed by the production reduction of filament companies.
(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.
近期Brent Dubai EFS显著下跌，从此前的4美元/桶下跌至3美元/桶以下，为何在亚太基本面弱于欧美的情况下，EFS仍旧显著下跌，我们认为主要的原因有：1、近几个月亚太国家的原油进口量显著放缓，中印日韩四国进口量在6月份跌至1800万桶/日的历史低位，这些国家主要削减了西非、北海、地中海等于布伦特原油挂钩的油种采购，因为跨大西洋套利的经济性较差；2、美国原油出口依然维持在高位，一方面美国维持了对亚太的高输出，如对印度、台湾地区等，另一方面美国对欧洲的出口维持在100万桶/日以上；3、欧洲炼厂即将进入检修期，开工率预计将会高位回落。综合来看，大西洋盆地的原油现货市场资源逐步增加，部分船货开始转化为浮仓，近期部分油种的贴水表现相对疲软。
策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
关注点：1.美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧