Iron ore: Due to limited crude steel production and weak consumption, iron ore futures fell sharply.

Yesterday, Ganggu.com announced the national building materials and HRC production, sales and inventory data. Through data analysis, we believe that steel consumption is currently at a low level. In this context, steel futures experienced a 200-point correction yesterday, and iron ore also experienced a sharp decline. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 813 points, a decrease of 21 points from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the spot price of imported iron ore ports continued to weaken in the afternoon session, with a cumulative drop of 5-15 yuan/ton throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1090-1100, SSF 750-760 yuan/ton; Caofeidian Port PB fines 1095-1105 yuan/ton, SSF 765-775 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port PB fines 1115-1120 yuan/ton. In terms of basis, as the spot price fell, the basis of iron ore futures and spot prices was gradually repaired. The PB fines basis corresponding to the 09 contract was 270 points, and the figure for SSF was 35 points.

On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. Due to the limited production and lower-than-expected consumption, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain a high price level. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore is recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Domestic and foreign raw materials continued to rise, and rubber prices fluctuated strongly.

On August 18, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,980 (+65) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,775 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1530 yuan/ton (-65); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 98,321 (+1,600) lots, ,the short position was 143,427 (+6,860) lots, and the net short position was 45,106 (+5,260) lots.

On August 18, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,830 (+35) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,810 (+20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,790 (+15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,745 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -502 (+56) yuan/ton.

As of August 13: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 207,064 (+5,914) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 181,570 (-240) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.8 (0), cup lump 49 (+0.55), latex 51.7 (+0.4), RSS3 57.39 (+0.59).

As of August 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 63.85% (+1.17%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60.2 (+0.78%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the rubber futures price continued its strong trend, and the impact on the supply side has not yet eased. The continuous increase in the price of Indonesian rubber may mainly reflect the impact of the local epidemic on processing plants, that is, the production link is affected. Due to the recent rains in Thailand and China, the price of raw materials is also in a stage of continuous recovery, which strongly supports rubber prices at the cost end. This year's poor domestic demand for concentrated latex has led to an increase in the production of full latex year-on-year. This should be the main factor that suppresses RU prices in the future. However, at present, domestic raw materials continue to rebound, coupled with low inventories, the overall price support is still strong, and the prices of overseas raw materials are also picking up. It is expected that rubber prices are expected to maintain strong volatility. It is expected that rubber prices are expected to maintain fluctuating at a strong level.

Strategy: cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: EIA crude oil and distillate inventories declined, while gasoline inventories increased slightly.

Yesterday EIA announced weekly data. Among them, the decline in crude oil and distillate inventories was greater than market expectations, but gasoline inventories increased slightly, and refinery operating rates continued to increase. The current crude oil fundamentals in the US market are still relatively healthy. In addition to the steady recovery in demand, shale oil producers still maintain high capital expenditures. According to the quarterly reports of listed companies in the second quarter, although the cash flow of shale oil companies increased by 18% quarter-on-quarter, capital expenditure increased by only 4% compared with last year, while net debt decreased by 4%. This shows that listed shale oil companies are still using cash to repay debts and return to shareholders, rather than eager to expand reproduction, and the production outlook of major companies has not increased significantly compared with the first quarter. Although the number of crude oil drilling rigs of Baker Hughes has increased significantly recently, it is mainly due to the fact that the performance of shale oil well completion is higher than that of drilling, which has led to the rapid consumption of DUC. Therefore, current production activities will rely more on the increase in the number of drilling rigs. However, the increase in the number of drilling rigs does not mean that production recovery will increase significantly, it still depends on the willingness of shale oil companies to spend on capital. We recommend that investors should still maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: Lower crude oil prices continue to drag down copper prices.

Spot: According to SMM, yesterday was the second trading day after the rolling operation. The night trading price opened lower to 69,000 yuan/ton, which slightly boosted downstream buying. But reluctantly, the holders have a strong willingness to support the price, and the buyers and sellers have differences on the high premiums, resulting in limited market activity. The Standard-Grade Copperstarted to report a premium of 280 yuan/ton in the morning session, but it was difficult to see a lot of buying interest in the market, and the downstream is not very acceptable of high premiums. Some holders slightly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 270 yuan/ton, but it was still difficult to see a lot of buying interest. During the second trading session, transactions did not pick up slightly until a small number of traders lowered their quotations again to a premium of 260 yuan/ton due to the demand for spot exchange. Under the guidance of CCC-P and ENM's large supply of goods, the quotations of High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper were almost the same, with a quotation of a premium of 270-300 yuan/ton. In late trading, only the quotation of Guixi-Copper remained firm at a premium of 290-300 yuan/ton. However, the market favor was limited, and there were few large transactions. Hydro-Copper was quoted at a premium of 180-220 yuan/ton under the guidance of BMK, MET and other brands, and the downstream increased its on-demand purchase when the market price dropped sharply.

View: After the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting last night, the market reaction was relatively subdued. However, due to market concerns about the re-attack of the epidemic and the future economic outlook, crude oil prices have continued to weaken, which has largely dragged down the trend of copper prices. And at present, the overhaul of the refinery is basically over. With TC prices rebounding and sulfuric acid prices remaining high, future supply may gradually be biased towards ample, which also has certain unfavorable factors for copper prices. However, from the current point of view, copper varieties have not yet shown a state of inventory accumulation after entering the off-season. Therefore, in general, it is expected that the current copper price is still dominated by shocks.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The production reduction of polyester is gradually implemented.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA August balance sheet was revised from a medium destocking to a small destocking; the inflection point of the inventory accumulation was advanced to near the end of August; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to initiate long positions after processing fees were compressed by the production reduction of filament companies.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.

铁矿：粗钢压产叠加消费偏弱 铁矿期货大幅回落

昨日，钢谷网公布了全国建材及热卷产销存情况，通过数据分析我们认为，目前钢材消费处于低位水平，在此背景下昨日钢材期货出现200点回调，铁矿也是出现大幅回调。至收盘，铁矿01合约收于813点，较上一交易日下降21点。现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货午后价格持续走弱，全天累计下跌5-15元/吨。青岛港PB粉1090-1100，超特粉750-760元/吨；曹妃甸港PB粉1095-1105元/吨，超特粉765-775元/吨；天津港PB粉1115-1120元/吨。基差方面，随着现货的下跌，铁矿期现基差得到进一步修复，09合约对应PB粉基差270点附近、超特粉30点左右接近平水。

整体来看，目前黑色行情依然由政策主导。由于压产叠加消费不及预期，迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩，同、环比大降，大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力，但随着压产的不断深入，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期，铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化，价格虽然下跌，但仍能维持高价格水平，随着压产的范围扩大，铁矿压力将逐步加大，推荐远月做空机会。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿（01合约）、多成材（01合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：内外原料继续回升，胶价偏强震荡

18号，RU主力收盘14980（+65）元/吨，混合胶报价12775元/吨（+50），主力合约基差-1530元/吨（-65）；前二十主力多头持仓98321（+1600），空头持仓143427（+6860），净空持仓45106（+5260）。

18号，NR主力收盘价11830（+35）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1810（+20）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1790美元/吨（+15），印尼标胶1745（+10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-502（+56）元/吨。

截至8月13日：交易所总库存207064（+5914），交易所仓单181570（-240）。

原料：生胶片52.8（0），杯胶49（+0.55），胶水51.7（+0.4），烟片57.39（+0.59）。

截止8月12日，国内全钢胎开工率为63.85%（+1.17%），国内半钢胎开工率为60.2%(+0.78%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价延续偏强走势，目前供应端的影响尚未缓解，印尼胶价格的持续攀升或主要反映当地疫情对于加工厂的影响，使得产出环节受到影响。泰国以及国内因近期受到雨水影响，原料价格也处持续回升阶段，对于橡胶价格成本支撑较强。今年国内浓乳需求较差导致全乳产量同比增加，这个应该是后期压制RU价格的主要因素，但目前国内原料延续回升，叠加库存偏低，总体价格的支撑还较强，而海外原料价格也在回升中。预计胶价有望维持偏强震荡。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：EIA原油、馏分油库存下降，汽油库存小幅增加

昨日EIA公布周度数据，其中原油、馏分油库存降幅较大超出市场预期，但汽油库存小幅增加，炼厂开工率继续提升，当前美国市场的原油基本面依然较为健康，除了需求的稳步复苏之外，页岩油生产商仍旧维持较高的资本开支纪律，根据二季度上市公司的季报来看，虽然页岩油公司现金流环比增加了18%，但资本开支较去年仅提高4%，而净债务减少4%，上市页岩油公司仍旧将现金用于偿还债务，回报股东，而不是急于扩大再生产，各大公司的产量前瞻较一季度并没有显著增加，虽然近期从贝克休斯的钻机数量来看，原油钻机数量增幅较大，但主要由于此前页岩油完井高于钻井，导致DUC快速消耗，因此目前的生产活动将会更加依赖钻机数量的提升，但钻机数量提升并不意味着产量复苏会显著增加，仍取决于页岩油公司资本开支意愿，目前仍旧维持谨慎。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：原油价格走低继续拖累铜价

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日是交割换月后第二个交易日，盘面在夜盘跳空低开至69000元/吨下方后小幅提振下游买兴，但无奈持货商挺价意愿强烈，买卖双方对高升水有所分歧，市场交投活跃度有限。平水铜早市始报于升水280元/吨后市场难见大量买兴，下游对高升水接受度不高，部分持货商小幅调价至升水270元/吨依旧难见大量买兴，第二时段少量贸易商换现需求下再度下调至升水260元/吨成交才略有回暖。好铜在CCC-P和ENM大量货源的指引下报价和平水铜难见价差，整体报至升水270-300元/吨，尾盘仅能听闻贵溪依旧挺价于升水290-300元/吨，但市场青睐度有限，难闻大量成交。湿法铜在BMK，MET等品牌报价指引下报至升水180-220元/吨，下游趁盘面大幅走低的行情下增加按需采购量。

观点：昨日晚间，美联储会议纪要公布后，市场反应相对平淡。不过由于市场对于疫情再度来袭以及未来经济展望的担忧，使得原油价格出现持续的走弱，这在很大程度上拖累了铜价的走势。并且目前，炼厂检修也基本结束，在TC价格回升以及硫酸价格维持高位的情况下，后市供应或许逐渐偏向宽裕，这同样对于铜价存在一定不利因素。不过目前来看，铜品种暂时也并未呈现出进入淡季之后而累库的情况，故此总体而言，预计目前铜价依然以震荡格局为主。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势也一度相对强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，在跨品种套利中以多头配置为主。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA:聚酯持续兑现减产

平衡表展望：长丝检修全检修假设背景下，PTA8月平衡表从中幅去库修正至小幅去库，9月累库拐点。亚洲PX8月平衡表走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待长丝减产压缩PTA加工费后再布局多单。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯利润低位下的降负幅度。