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Daily morning for Crude oil, PTA, natural rubber, iron ore, copper Iro (ZH & EN) 20210819

Fang submitted 2021-08-19 10:00:55

Iron ore: Due to limited crude steel production and weak consumption, iron ore futures fell sharply.

Yesterday, announced the national building materials and HRC production, sales and inventory data. Through data analysis, we believe that steel consumption is currently at a low level. In this context, steel futures experienced a 200-point correction yesterday, and iron ore also experienced a sharp decline. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 813 points, a decrease of 21 points from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the spot price of imported iron ore ports continued to weaken in the afternoon session, with a cumulative drop of 5-15 yuan/ton throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1090-1100, SSF 750-760 yuan/ton; Caofeidian Port PB fines 1095-1105 yuan/ton, SSF 765-775 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port PB fines 1115-1120 yuan/ton. In terms of basis, as the spot price fell, the basis of iron ore futures and spot prices was gradually repaired. The PB fines basis corresponding to the 09 contract was 270 points, and the figure for SSF was 35 points.

On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. Due to the limited production and lower-than-expected consumption, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain a high price level. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore is recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Domestic and foreign raw materials continued to rise, and rubber prices fluctuated strongly.

On August 18, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,980 (+65) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,775 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1530 yuan/ton (-65); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 98,321 (+1,600) lots, ,the short position was 143,427 (+6,860) lots, and the net short position was 45,106 (+5,260) lots.

On August 18, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,830 (+35) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,810 (+20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,790 (+15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,745 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -502 (+56) yuan/ton.

As of August 13: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 207,064 (+5,914) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 181,570 (-240) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.8 (0), cup lump 49 (+0.55), latex 51.7 (+0.4), RSS3 57.39 (+0.59).

As of August 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 63.85% (+1.17%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60.2 (+0.78%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the rubber futures price continued its strong trend, and the impact on the supply side has not yet eased. The continuous increase in the price of Indonesian rubber may mainly reflect the impact of the local epidemic on processing plants, that is, the production link is affected. Due to the recent rains in Thailand and China, the price of raw materials is also in a stage of continuous recovery, which strongly supports rubber prices at the cost end. This year's poor domestic demand for concentrated latex has led to an increase in the production of full latex year-on-year. This should be the main factor that suppresses RU prices in the future. However, at present, domestic raw materials continue to rebound, coupled with low inventories, the overall price support is still strong, and the prices of overseas raw materials are also picking up. It is expected that rubber prices are expected to maintain strong volatility. It is expected that rubber prices are expected to maintain fluctuating at a strong level.

Strategy: cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: EIA crude oil and distillate inventories declined, while gasoline inventories increased slightly.

Yesterday EIA announced weekly data. Among them, the decline in crude oil and distillate inventories was greater than market expectations, but gasoline inventories increased slightly, and refinery operating rates continued to increase. The current crude oil fundamentals in the US market are still relatively healthy. In addition to the steady recovery in demand, shale oil producers still maintain high capital expenditures. According to the quarterly reports of listed companies in the second quarter, although the cash flow of shale oil companies increased by 18% quarter-on-quarter, capital expenditure increased by only 4% compared with last year, while net debt decreased by 4%. This shows that listed shale oil companies are still using cash to repay debts and return to shareholders, rather than eager to expand reproduction, and the production outlook of major companies has not increased significantly compared with the first quarter. Although the number of crude oil drilling rigs of Baker Hughes has increased significantly recently, it is mainly due to the fact that the performance of shale oil well completion is higher than that of drilling, which has led to the rapid consumption of DUC. Therefore, current production activities will rely more on the increase in the number of drilling rigs. However, the increase in the number of drilling rigs does not mean that production recovery will increase significantly, it still depends on the willingness of shale oil companies to spend on capital. We recommend that investors should still maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: Lower crude oil prices continue to drag down copper prices.

Spot: According to SMM, yesterday was the second trading day after the rolling operation. The night trading price opened lower to 69,000 yuan/ton, which slightly boosted downstream buying. But reluctantly, the holders have a strong willingness to support the price, and the buyers and sellers have differences on the high premiums, resulting in limited market activity. The Standard-Grade Copperstarted to report a premium of 280 yuan/ton in the morning session, but it was difficult to see a lot of buying interest in the market, and the downstream is not very acceptable of high premiums. Some holders slightly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 270 yuan/ton, but it was still difficult to see a lot of buying interest. During the second trading session, transactions did not pick up slightly until a small number of traders lowered their quotations again to a premium of 260 yuan/ton due to the demand for spot exchange. Under the guidance of CCC-P and ENM's large supply of goods, the quotations of High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper were almost the same, with a quotation of a premium of 270-300 yuan/ton. In late trading, only the quotation of Guixi-Copper remained firm at a premium of 290-300 yuan/ton. However, the market favor was limited, and there were few large transactions. Hydro-Copper was quoted at a premium of 180-220 yuan/ton under the guidance of BMK, MET and other brands, and the downstream increased its on-demand purchase when the market price dropped sharply.

View: After the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting last night, the market reaction was relatively subdued. However, due to market concerns about the re-attack of the epidemic and the future economic outlook, crude oil prices have continued to weaken, which has largely dragged down the trend of copper prices. And at present, the overhaul of the refinery is basically over. With TC prices rebounding and sulfuric acid prices remaining high, future supply may gradually be biased towards ample, which also has certain unfavorable factors for copper prices. However, from the current point of view, copper varieties have not yet shown a state of inventory accumulation after entering the off-season. Therefore, in general, it is expected that the current copper price is still dominated by shocks.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The production reduction of polyester is gradually implemented.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA August balance sheet was revised from a medium destocking to a small destocking; the inflection point of the inventory accumulation was advanced to near the end of August; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to initiate long positions after processing fees were compressed by the production reduction of filament companies.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the extent of load reduction under the low profit of polyester.

铁矿:粗钢压产叠加消费偏弱 铁矿期货大幅回落





























1. 单边:中性 2. 跨市:暂缓 3. 跨期:暂缓;4. 期权:暂缓

关注点:1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧





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