Iron ore: The effect of limiting the production of crude steel was significant, and iron ore futures continued to fall.

Yesterday, the Steel Union announced the production, sales and inventory data of the five building materials commonly used in construction. Through data analysis, we believe that the output of steel is 10.16 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 750,000 tons. Due to production restrictions, the iron ore consumption side has been fully restrained, and iron ore futures have continued to fall recently. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 761 points, 52 points lower than the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Caofeidian Port fluctuated downward in the afternoon session, with a cumulative drop of 30-55 yuan/ton throughout the day. The current PB fines reported 1030-1040 yuan/ton, the Newman fines 1420-1430 yuan/ton, and Carajás iron ore fines (SFCJ) 1425-1435 Yuan/ton, SSF 720-730 yuan/ton. In terms of basis, futures and spot prices both fell, while iron ore futures and spot basis changed little. The PB fines basis corresponding to the 09 contract was 270 points, and the figure for SSF was 35 points.

On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. Due to the limited production and lower-than-expected consumption, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain a high price level. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore is recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The market sentiment weakened, and the price of rubber fell sharply.

On August 19, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,490 (-490) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,575 (-200) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1165 yuan/ton (+365); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 88,282 (-10,039) lots, ,the short position was 136,019 (-7,408) lots, and the net short position was 47,737 (+2,631) lots.

On August 19, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,435 (-395) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,780 (-30) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,765 (-25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,715 (-30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -313 (+190) yuan/ton.

As of August 13: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 207,064 (+5,914) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 181,570 (-240) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.8 (0), cup lump 49 (0), latex 52.5 (+0.8), RSS3 57.61 (+0.22).

As of August 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 63.85% (+1.17%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60.2 (+0.78%).

Opinion: Concerned about the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, the overall market sentiment was weak yesterday, which led to a sharp fall in rubber futures prices. The main focus of recent rubber prices is the impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic on the supply side. Due to the impact of the epidemic in Indonesia, the operating rate of processing plants has dropped, resulting in a slowdown in production. In addition, the slowdown in exports to China caused by the Thailand epidemic has caused the recent continuous decline in China's domestic port inventory, which has formed a strong support for the corresponding price. In the future, demand will usher in a seasonal improvement from the previous quarter, but overall demand will deviate. Therefore, the impact on the demand side is relatively small, and the price impact is mainly on the supply side. Investors can pay attention to when the delayed pressure on domestic imports will appear, and the price may usher in an inflection point. In August, due to the lack of expected arrivals at ports and more rain at home and abroad, it is difficult to see substantial pressure on supply. It is expected that the short-term price will continue to fall and the room will be limited.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Oil prices continue to fall, OPEC may postpone the increase in production.

Oil prices continue to decline, but we believe that the main factor driving the decline in oil prices in the near term comes from the macro level. The minutes of the Fed meeting on Wednesday showed that most officials expect to reduce the scale of bond purchases this year. The US dollar is currently strong, and macro-allocation funds based on re-inflation trading logic are gradually withdrawing. The current crude oil fundamentals have not undergone a fundamental reversal. Although India is releasing strategic reserves recently and China is suffering from the lack of buying interest, this is more of a means for consumer countries to cope with high oil prices. However, the pattern of global oil inventory destocking has not changed. We believe that the impact of the epidemic is still a phased one, and the demand recovery is currently suspended rather than over. In addition, in the context of weak oil prices, the possibility of OPEC delaying or reducing production increases is also increasing. Although macro factors continue to be bearish for oil prices, as the fundamentals have not yet reversed, the continued downside of oil prices is limited.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen, and copper prices fell to a large extent.

Spot: According to SMM, the market opened lower for two consecutive days yesterday, and the decline of more than 2,000 yuan/ton made the downstream market to hold a wait-and-see attitude again. In addition, there were more sources of High-Grade Copper in the market, which continued to put pressure on the quotation of Standard-Grade Copper. Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/ton in the morning session, but there were few inquirers in the market. After being suppressed by CCC-P and other brand quotations, Standard-Grade Copper’s quotation was quickly lowered to a premium of 250-260 yuan/ton, but the buying power still maintained a wait-and-see attitude. After the second trading session, the demand for trade hedging orders to make a profit and exchange for spot to leave the market caused the holders to quickly adjust the quotation again to a premium of 230-240 yuan/ton, but there was still little buying interest in the market. In the late trading, there was even a quotation that reached a premium of 200-220 yuan/ton from the source of supply. High-Grade Copper fell rapidly under the guidance of brands such as CCC-P, ENM, and Peruvian, remaining the same with the quotations of Standard-Grade Copper. This not only squeezed the price space of Standard-Grade Copper, but also guided the price adjustment of Standard-Grade Copper, so that its overall quotation stood at a premium of 240-250 yuan/ton. It was also difficult for Guixi-Copper to maintain a strong price support sentiment. The quotation of Guixi-Copper reported a premium of 250 yuan/ton at the end of the trading session, but it was still difficult to attract buyers into the market. On the contrary, the supply of Hydro-Copper was unexpectedly tight, and the quotation stood at a premium of 170-200 yuan/ton. However, under the wait-and-see attitude of the downstream, stockholders rarely had the willingness to substantially adjust quotations.

Opinion: Yesterday, as the US dollar continued to strengthen and stood above the 93.5 mark, copper prices experienced an increased degree of decline. In addition, the State Reserve Bureau's expected management of releasing reserves has exacerbated the drop in copper prices. The current copper price presents a volatile and weak pattern, and the Fed’s taper expectations continue to exist, which may have an adverse effect on non-ferrous metals including copper. But for the time being, in the process of falling copper prices, terminal orders have also performed relatively well. This may make the destocking state continue, so it is not recommended to be too bearish on copper prices at present.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Crude oil drove costs down, and the reduction in polyester production resulted in compression of PTA processing fees.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA August balance sheet was revised from a medium destocking to a small destocking; the inflection point of the inventory accumulation was advanced to near the end of August, but the inventory accumulation rate is controllable; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to initiate long positions after processing fees were compressed by the production reduction of filament companies.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load..

铁矿：粗钢压产效果显著 铁矿期货持续下跌

昨日，钢联公布了五大材产销存情况，通过数据分析我们认为，钢材产量1016万吨，周度环比减少75万吨。由于压产，铁矿石消费端受到充分抑制，近日铁矿石期货持续下跌。至收盘，铁矿01合约收于761点，较上一交易日下降52点。现货方面，曹妃甸港进口铁矿午后价格震荡下行，全天累计下跌30-55元/吨，现PB粉1030-1040元/吨，纽曼筛后块1420-1430元/吨，卡粉1425-1435元/吨，超特粉720-730元/吨。基差方面，期现价格齐跌，铁矿期现基差变动不大，09合约对应PB粉基差270点附近、超特粉30点左右接近平水。

整体来看，目前黑色行情依然由政策主导。由于压产叠加钢材消费不及预期，迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩，同、环比大降，大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力，但随着压产的不断深入，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期，铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化，价格虽然下跌，但仍能维持高价格水平，随着压产的范围扩大，铁矿压力将逐步加大，推荐远月做空机会。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿（01合约）、多成材（01合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：氛围转弱，胶价大幅回落

19号，RU主力收盘14490（-490）元/吨，混合胶报价12575元/吨（-200），主力合约基差-1165元/吨（+365）；前二十主力多头持仓88282（-10039），空头持仓136019（-7408），净空持仓47737（+2631）。

19号，NR主力收盘价11435（-395）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1780（-30）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1765美元/吨（-25），印尼标胶1715（-30）美元/吨。主力合约基差-313（+190）元/吨。

截至8月13日：交易所总库存207064（+5914），交易所仓单181570（-240）。

原料：生胶片52.8（0），杯胶49（0），胶水52.5（+0.8），烟片57.61（+0.22）。

截止8月12日，国内全钢胎开工率为63.85%（+1.17%），国内半钢胎开工率为60.2%(+0.78%）。

观点：美联储缩表担忧下，昨天整体市场氛围偏弱，带动橡胶期价大幅回落。近期胶价的主要焦点因素是东南亚疫情对供应端的影响。印尼因疫情影响，加工厂开工下降，导致产量减缓以及泰国疫情导致的出口到国内进度减缓，都使得近期国内港口库存持续下降，对于价格支撑较强。后期来看，需求迎来季节性环比改善，但总体需求偏差，因此需求端影响较小，价格影响主要还在供应端，关注国内进口延后的压力什么时候出现，价格或迎来拐点。8月因到港预报不多以及国内外雨水较多，供应难以出现大幅压力，预计短期价格继续回落空间受限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：油价持续下跌，欧佩克或推迟增产

油价继续下行，但我们认为近期驱动油价下行的主要因素来自宏观层面，周三的美联储会议纪要显示多数官员预计今年可以缩减购债规模，美元表现强势，基于再通胀交易逻辑的宏观配置型资金逐步退场，当前的原油基本面格局并未发生根本性逆转，虽然近期印度释放战略储备叠加中国买盘缺乏，但这更多属于消费国应对高油价的手段， 不过全球石油库存去化的格局没有发生变化，而疫情的影响我们认为仍旧是阶段性的，需求复苏只是暂停而非结束，此外，在油价走弱的背景下，欧佩克推迟或者减少增产的可能性也在增加，虽然宏观方面的因素持续利空油价，但在基本面格局尚未逆转之下，油价持续下行空间受限

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：美元持续走强 铜价出现较大程度回落

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日盘面连续两日跳空低开，跌幅2000余元/吨的行情让下游再度呈现观望之势，外加市场进口好铜货源较多，对平水铜报价持续施压。早市平水铜始报于升水280元/吨，但市场难闻询价者，受到CCC-P等品牌报价压制，报价迅速下调至升水250-260元/吨，但买盘力量维持观望，第二时段后贸易保值盘获利换现离场的需求令持货商再度快速调价至升水230-240元/吨依旧难闻大量买兴，尾盘甚至听闻升水200-220元/吨货源都有流出。好铜在CCC-P、ENM、秘鲁大板等品牌指引下迅速下泄，和平水铜报价保持一致，不仅挤压了平水铜的价格空间并且为平水铜的价格调整指引了方向，整体集中于升水240-250元/吨，贵溪铜也难以维持挺价情绪，尾盘报至升水250元/吨依旧难以吸引买盘入市。湿法铜货源却意外偏紧，整体报至升水升水170-200元/吨，下游观望态度下持货商也难见大幅调价意愿。

观点：昨日，在美元持续走强并站上93.5关口的过程中，铜价格出现了加大程度回落。叠加国储局对于抛储的预期管理，加剧了铜价的下跌幅度。目前铜价呈现震荡偏弱格局，并且美联储taper的预期持续存在，这或许会对于包括铜在内的有色金属产生不利的影响。不过暂时来看，在铜价走低的过程中，终端订单表现也相对较好。这或许会使得去库持续，因此目前也不建议过分看空铜价。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：原油带动成本回落，聚酯减产压缩PTA加工费

平衡表展望：长丝检修全检修假设背景下，PTA8月平衡表从中幅去库修正至小幅去库，9月累库拐点但累库速率可控。亚洲PX8月平衡表走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待长丝减产压缩PTA加工费后再布局多单。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间