Iron ore: In the absence of supply support, iron ore is unlikely to change its downward trend.

Weekly summary: Due to the gradual implementation of the restricted production policy, iron ore has started a shock-declining mode in the past month. Last week, the futures market continued its weak pattern. The main 01 contract closed at 841.5 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan/ton from last Monday's opening. In terms of spot, as of last Friday, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1122 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton from Monday’s early trading. SSF reported 770 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from Monday’s early trading. At the same time, the Platts 62% index has fallen back to 160.85 US dollars/ton. In terms of transactions, the average daily transaction volume at major ports last week was 790,000 tons, which is an absolute position over the years.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel statistics, the total shipment of iron ore from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 25.666 million tons, an increase of 942,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, the shipping volume of Rio Tinto's two ports hit a new high this year. The global iron ore shipment totaled 32.15 million tons, an increase of 893,000 tons from the previous month. China’s 45 ports’ arrivals totaled 26.634 million tons, an increase of 4.468 million tons from the previous month; the six northern ports’arrivals totaled 14.263 million tons, an increase of 2.808 million tons from the previous month. Judging from the recent import data released by the customs and the diversion data caused by the recovery of overseas pig iron consumption, it is expected that the domestic iron ore supply will decline year-on-year.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 75.00%, an increase of 0.39% from last week and a decrease of 16.93% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 85.89%, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week, and a decrease of 9.27% from the same period last year. The profit rate of steel mills was 89.18%, a week-on-week increase of 1.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.06%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.2863 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,500 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 246,700 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 57.60%, an increase of 0.41% week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate was 69.82%, an increase of 0.55% week-on-week, and the utilization rate excluding eliminated capacity was 76.00%, a decrease of 11.01% from the same period last year, and the profit rate of steel mills was 77.91 %, an increase of 0.61% week-on-week. The daily average port congestion volume was 2.9917 million tons, an increase of 148,000 tons. Although Mysteel's blast furnace operating rate, average daily molten iron output, and port congestion volume increased slightly this week, we believe that this is only a short-term rhythm problem and does not change the general trend of declining iron ore demand.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counts that the imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports across China is 12.6283 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, Australian ore 6411.80 increased by 19.1, Brazil ore 3491.18 increased by 33.84, trade ore 7044.50 increased by 38.3, pellets 388.61 increased by 4.53, iron ore concentrates 933.66 decreased by 6.51, lump ore 1948.05 increased by 35.41, coarse iron powder 9357.98 decreased by 44.43; the number of ships at ports was 199, increased by 7. It should be noted that the number of ships at ports has been at an absolute high in the recent past, and there will still be a greater risk of inventory accumulation in the future.

On the whole, the current iron ore market will remain weak due to restrictions on the consumption side and lack of support on the supply side. In recent months, some steel mills’ plans to put blast furnaces into production have been postponed, and capacity withdrawal has been relatively smooth, resulting in continuous compression of iron ore demand. Looking to the future, the trend of iron ore most likely depends on the intensity of domestic production restrictions. According to our calculations, if the implementation of production restriction is less than 20%, the impact on iron ore will be small. If the implementation of production restrictions is greater than 40%, it will be extremely negative for iron ore. According to our analysis, the production restriction policy will most likely be strictly implemented, and we recommend the strategy of initiating a short position of iron ore when price hits high.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Investors can pay attention to supply changes; the short-term downside of rubber prices is limited.

Rubber futures prices rose first and then fell last week. In the first half of last week, due to the impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic, the delay of domestic import shipping schedules caused the market to worry about supply-side disturbances, which brought strong price shocks. In the second half of last week, as the market sentiment turned weak, prices returned to weakness.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of August 20 was 211,342 tons (+4278), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 186,380 tons (+4810). Since the current time node is in the peak season for rubber delivery in China, especially the recovery of output in the main producing areas of Yunnan, the recent stock exchange growth rate has increased. As of August 15th, due to the limited number of arrivals at ports, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, and the absolute amount was also at a low level in recent years compared with the same period last year.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of August 19, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 61.33% (-2.52%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 57.29 (-2.91%). In the off-season of demand, the tire factory operating rate is still insufficient to recover, but the overseas snow tire production has brought the operating rate to continue to rise. Seasonally, the operating rate in September is expected to usher in a seasonal improvement.

Viewpoint: At present, the demand for rubber is showing a slight rebound, mainly because the domestic downstream will gradually go out of the off-season, and the peak season for overseas snow tire production will stabilize the operating rate of domestic tire factories. However, due to the greater domestic economic pressure in the second half of the year, automobile production and sales may further weaken. However, overseas demand has been repeatedly affected by the epidemic, and the demand recovery has been slower, resulting in a limited recovery in the total demand in the future. Therefore, the demand side or more shows a stable pattern. Therefore, changes on the supply side may become the dominant factor in later price fluctuations. The domestic supply side mainly focuses on the progress of domestic arrivals. Judging from the current domestic port inventory, due to the impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic this year, the pace of domestic arrivals has slowed down significantly, leading to continued destocking of domestic port inventory. With the further increase in the domestic tire operating rate in the future, if the arrival volume still cannot be increased, the trend of destocking of domestic port inventory will be difficult to end, forming a strong support for domestic rubber prices. Once imports increase, domestic supply pressure will gradually appear. In view of the limited shipping schedule in August, price pressure is not obvious, and short-term prices may not fall sharply. From the perspective of future inventory changes, the spread between RU and NR is expected to be further narrowed.

Strategy: neutral

Risk points: Domestic supply may increase substantially, demand will continue to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funds may be tight.

Crude oil: Oil prices continue to fall, but the downside may be limited.

Oil prices fell sharply last week. Since the beginning of August, oil prices have fallen by nearly $10 per barrel, and the overall decline has exceeded expectations. First of all, from the perspective of macro factors, the possibility that the Fed will gradually reduce the scale of bond purchases in the future and the strength of the U.S. dollar will suppress overall commodity prices. The disadvantage of this is relatively clear. At the same time, it is worth noting that the inter-month spread in crude oil and Brent Dubai EFS also fell from a high level, which also implies that the current fundamental situation has changed. We think the most concerning and inexplicable factor is the sharp fall of Brent Dubai EFS. According to the logic of weaker Asia-Pacific demand, Dubai should be the weakest performer, but the fact is that Brent and WTI are weaker than Dubai.

We believe that the main reasons are as follows: 1. From the traffic congestion index, the current round of Delta epidemic has had a more obvious impact on the demand in Eurasia. From the data point of view, the European traffic congestion index fell from around 90% at the end of July to 60%, while China fell from 100% to 80%, and the changes in other parts of the Asia-Pacific region were not significant. Therefore, in terms of actual impact, the impact of the epidemic on the consumption of refined oil in Europe is greater than that in the Asia-Pacific. 2. China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the four countries in the Asia-Pacific region do not have a large buying interest for crude oil. However, since Brent Dubai EFS was at a high level before and the cost of crude oil procurement in the Western Region was even higher, the main targets for reduction were crude oil in the Western Region, such as West Africa, North Sea, South America, and the Mediterranean. The physical discounts of these oil types are also weak, especially those oil types that are directly linked to local refining needs. In addition, US crude oil exports remain at a high level of 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day, and monthly exports to Europe are also maintained at 1 million barrels per day. Due to the lack of arbitrage buying in Asia and insufficient local demand, competition in the crude oil market in the Atlantic Basin has intensified.

However, in the future, we are still cautious about the downside of crude oil. On the one hand, the impact of the epidemic has already been Price In, unless more countries join the ranks of the lockdown, and the traffic congestion index has basically bottomed out. On the other hand, China's oil inventory destocking has basically entered the second half. The fourth batch of crude oil quotas issued by the Ministry of Commerce in September will significantly boost the buying interest of refineries. In addition, the adjustment of oil prices will also stimulate refineries' willingness to purchase. In addition, the most important thing is that in this round of adjustments, the refined oil crack spread is still at a high level, and refinery profits have not been harmed. This shows that the logic of demand recovery has not yet been destroyed, and more is the lack of demand on the crude oil side. The current market is still in the process of destocking global oil inventories. Since entering the second half, it is reflected in the destocking of consumer countries such as China and India, which has a negative impact on short-term prices. However, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the re-issuance of crude oil quotas, the spot market is expected to turn from weak to strong again. Therefore, we do not believe that the crude oil spread structure will be changed from Back to Contango, unless Iranian oil returns earlier than expected, and the downside of the unilateral price of crude oil will also be limited.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: Macro factors suppress market sentiment, and copper prices continue to be under pressure.

Spot situation: According to SMM news, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of August 20 was between 67,190 yuan/ton and 70,340 yuan/ton, and showed a downward trend in the middle of last week. The average premium and discount quotation of Standard-Grade Copper runs from 5 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton, with large fluctuations during the week. After rising to a weekly high on August 18, it declined significantly in the last two days of last week. Last week, the price of copper fell more sharply. The Shanghai Copper 10 contract fell from a maximum of 70,900 yuan/ton to a minimum of 65,770 yuan/ton. It closed at 67,510 yuan/ton on Friday night, a weekly drop of 2,490 yuan/ton.

Short-term view: From a macro point of view, the monthly rate of retail sales and the annualized data of new housing starts fell more than expected in the United States in July. In China, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in July, the total retail sales of consumer goods, and the national fixed asset investment from January to July were all lower than expected. Weak economic data has caused the market to panic about weakening consumption. On the other hand, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits on the first day of last week fell for four consecutive weeks. With the recovery of employment, the minutes of the Fed's July meeting hinted at the reduction of QE during the year, and the market's Taper expectations are heating up. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission once again voiced its efforts to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities. The macro-negative factors are intertwined to suppress market sentiment and plunge copper prices.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory accumulation.

PTA: Crude oil drove costs down, and the reduction of polyester production continues to suppress PTA processing fees.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA August balance sheet was revised from a medium destocking to a small destocking; the inflection point of the inventory accumulation was advanced to near the end of August, but the inventory accumulation rate is controllable; The Asian PX August balance sheet went flat.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to initiate long positions after processing fees were compressed by the production reduction of filament companies.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load..

铁矿石：供应缺乏故事，铁矿难改下跌格局

周报摘要：受限产政策逐步落地影响，铁矿近一个月开启震荡下跌模式。上周期货盘面延续偏弱格局，主力01合约收盘841.5元/吨，较周一开盘下跌58.5元/吨。现货方面共振下跌，截止上周五青岛港PB粉报1122元/吨，较周一早盘下跌73元/吨。超特粉报770元/吨，较周一早盘下跌75元/吨。同时普氏62%指数已回落至160.85美元/吨。成交方面，上周主要港口日均成交79万吨，处于历年绝对地位。

供应方面，本期Mysteel澳大利亚巴西19港铁矿发运总量2566.6万吨，环比增加94.2万吨，其中力拓两港发运发力，发运量创今年新高。全球铁矿石发运总量3215万吨，环比增加89.3万吨。中国45港到港总量2663.4万吨，环比增加446.8万吨；北方六港到港总量为1426.3万吨，环比增加280.8万吨。从近期海关公布的进口数据，以及海外生铁消费的恢复，造成的分流，预期国内铁矿供给将同比下降。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率75.00%，环比上周增加0.39%，同比去年下降16.93%；高炉炼铁产能利用率85.89%，环比增加0.17%，同比下降9.27%；钢厂盈利率89.18%，环比增加1.30%，同比下降6.06%；日均铁水产量228.63万吨，环比增加0.45万吨，同比下降24.67万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率57.60%，环比增加0.41%，产能利用率69.82%，环比增加0.55%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为76.00%，较去年同期下降11.01%，钢厂盈利率77.91%，环比增加0.61%。日均疏港量299.17万吨增14.8万吨。虽然Mysteel本周高炉开工率、日均铁水产量、疏港量小幅增加，但我们认为这只是短期节奏问题，并不改变铁矿需求下降这个大趋势。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12628.30万吨，环比减少11万吨。分量方面，澳矿6411.80增19.1，巴西矿3491.18增33.84，贸易矿7044.50增38.3，球团388.61增4.53，精粉933.66降6.51，块矿1948.05增35.41，粗粉9357.98降44.43；在港船舶数199条增7条。需注意近期在港船舶数量处于历年绝对高位，后续仍将面临较大累库风险。

整体来看，目前铁矿在消费端受限制，同时供给端又缺乏故事的情况下，仍将维持偏弱格局，近几个月来部分钢厂高炉投产计划不断推迟，而产能退出相对顺利，铁矿需求不断压缩。展望后市，铁矿石的走势大概率取决于国内压产的力度。根据我司测算，如果压产执行力度小于20%，对铁矿影响较小。如果压产执行力度大于40%，对铁矿则极为利空。据我司跟踪了解，压产政策大概率会严格执行，继续维持逢高空配建议。

策略：

单边 ：中期偏空

跨品种：多成材空矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，海内外钢铁需求表现，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：关注供应变化，胶价短期下行有限

上周橡胶期价先扬后抑，上半周因东南亚疫情影响，国内进口船期推迟使得市场担忧供应端扰动，带来价格偏强震荡，而下半周则在市场氛围转弱下，价格重回弱势。

国内交易所总库存截止8月20为211342吨（+4278），期货仓单量186380吨（+4810），国内割胶旺季，尤其是云南主产区产量跟进使得近期交易所库存增速有所提升。截至8月15日，因到港量仍有限，青岛保税区库存延续小幅回落，绝对量同比也处于近年低位。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止8月19日，全钢胎企业开工率61.33%（-2.52%），半钢胎企业开工率57.29（-2.91%）。需求淡季，轮胎厂开工率回升动力仍不足，但海外雪地胎生产带来开工率继续回升。季节性来看，9月开工率有望迎来季节性改善。

观点：目前橡胶需求端呈现稳中小幅回升的势头，主要因国内下游将逐步走出淡季，叠加海外雪地胎生产旺季将使得国内轮胎厂开工率企稳。但因国内下半年总体经济压力较大，汽车产销或将进一步示弱，而海外受疫情反复影响，需求回升速度较慢，带来后期需求总量回升有限，因此，需求端或更多呈现稳定的格局。因此，供应端的变化或成了后期价格波动的主导因素。国内供应端则主要关注国内到港的进度，从目前的国内港口库存来看，今年因东南亚疫情的影响，国内的到港节奏明显放缓，导致国内港口库存持续去化，随着后期国内轮胎开工率的进一步提升，如果到港量仍不能提升，则国内港口库存去化的趋势难以结束，对于国内橡胶价格支撑较强。而一旦进口提速，则国内的供应压力将逐步显现。鉴于8月船期有限，价格压力并不明显，短期价格或难大跌。从后期库存的变动来看，RU与NR的价差则有望进一步缩窄。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：油价持续回落，但下行空间或有限

上周油价大幅回落，自8月初以来油价下跌幅度近10美元/桶，整体跌幅超预期，首先从宏观因素来看，美联储未来可能逐步缩减购债规模以及美元的强势，对整体大宗商品价格形成打压，这一点的利空是相对明确的，同时值得注意的是原油月差、Brent Dubai EFS也出现高位回落，这也暗示当前的基本面形势出现了变化，我们认为最令人关注和费解的因素是Brent Dubai EFS的大幅回落，如果按照亚太需求走弱的逻辑来看，应该Dubai表现最弱，但事实却是Brent、WTI要弱于Dubai，我们认为其中主要的原因如下：1、从交通拥堵指数来看，本轮Delta疫情对于欧亚地区的需求均产生了较为明显的冲击，从数据上看，欧洲的交通拥堵指数从7月底的90%左右下跌至60%，而中国从100%下跌至80%，亚太其他地区变化不太显著，因此实际影响来看，疫情对于欧洲成品油消费的冲击要大于亚太；2、中印日韩亚太四国的原油买兴不佳，但由于此前Brent Dubai EFS处于高位，西区原油采购的性价比更差，因此主要削减的对象是西区的原油，如西非、北海，南美、地中海等，此类油种的实货贴水也表现偏弱，尤其是那些与地炼需求直接挂钩的油种，而除此之外，美国原油出口维持在250至300万桶/日的高位，每月出口到欧洲的数量也维持在100万桶/日，由于缺乏亚洲的套利买盘，加之本地需求不足，大西洋盆地的原油市场内卷加剧。

但往后来看，我们仍对原油下行空间持谨慎态度，一方面来看疫情的影响已经Price in，除非更多国家加入封城行列，交通拥堵指数来看基本已经见底，另一方面，中国的石油库存去化基本已经进入到下半场，9月份商务部下发第四批原油配额将会显著提振炼厂买兴，此外油价的回调也会激发炼厂的采购意愿，此外最为重要的是，在本轮调整当中，成品油裂解价差仍旧处于高位，炼厂利润并没有受到损害，这显示需求复苏的逻辑尚未受到破坏，更多是原油端的需求不足。当前市场仍旧处于全球石油库存去化的过程中，由于进入到了下半场，所以体现在了中国、印度等消费国的库存去化上，对短期价格产生了利空影响，但随着疫情形势好转以及原油配额的再度发放，现货市场有望重新由弱转强。因此我们不认为原油的价差结构会从Back转为Contango，除非伊朗石油回归早于预期，原油单边价格的下行空间也会受限。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：宏观因素打压市场情绪，铜价持续承压

现货情况：据SMM讯，8月20当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于67,190元/吨-70,340元/吨，且周中呈下滑走势。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于5元/吨至270元/吨，周中波动较大，8月18日升至周内高点后，于当周最后两天下滑明显。上周铜价跌幅较深较急，沪铜10合约由最高70,900元吨跌至最低65,770元/吨，周五夜盘收67,510元/吨，周度跌2,490元/吨。

短期观点：从宏观来看，美国7月零售销售月率、新屋开工年化数据降幅超过预期，中国7月规模以上工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额、1-7月全国固定资产投资均低于预期，经济数据的疲软导致市场对于消费走弱产生恐慌。另一方面，美国上周首日申请失业金人数连续四周下降，伴随就业恢复，美联储7月会议纪要暗示年内缩减QE，市场Taper预期升温。同时，国家发改委再次发声，切实做好大宗商品保供稳价工作。宏观利空因素交织打压市场情绪，重挫铜价。

中长期观点：宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 累库拐点

PTA：原油带动成本回落，聚酯减产压缩PTA加工费

平衡表展望：长丝检修全检修假设背景下，PTA8月平衡表从中幅去库修正至小幅去库，9月累库拐点但累库速率可控。亚洲PX8月平衡表走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待长丝减产压缩PTA加工费后再布局多单。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间