Iron ore: Shipment volume returned to a high level, and the port spot price fell below 1,000 yuan.

Opinion and logic: Yesterday, Steel Union announced the latest iron ore shipment and arrival data. The total amount of iron ore shipped from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 26.192 million tons, an increase of 3.425 million tons from the previous month. Shipments in Australia increased by 2.532 million tons from the previous month to 17.584 million tons. Brazil’s shipments increased by 893,000 tons from the previous month to 8.608 million tons, a new high this year. Global shipments increased by 4.46 million tons from the previous month to 33.04 million tons. China’s 45 ports reached 23.425 million tons, a decrease of 2.042 million tons from the previous month. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports was 14.221 million tons, an increase of 2.717 million tons from the previous month. Under the background of limited production of crude steel, iron ore supply increased and demand declined. There are indications that the spot price remains at four digits and it seems unreasonable. Yesterday, the port spot Pb fines price officially fell below 1,000 yuan. The main iron ore 01 contract closed at 757 points, down 20.5 points from the previous month, and the increase in the open interest was 8500 lots. Yesterday, the lowest spot price of PB fines in Qingjing Cao Port was 998 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton month-on-month, and SSF was 700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton.

On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. Due to the limited production and lower-than-expected consumption, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain a high price level. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore is recommended. In addition, the hedging arbitrage combination of initiating a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore is also recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Pay attention to supply-side disturbance; rubber prices have stopped falling.

On August 23, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,360 (+120) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,475 (+75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1410 yuan/ton (-220); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 87,889 (-19) lots, ,the short position was 131,206 (-1,593) lots, and the net short position was 43,317 (+1,574) lots.

On August 23, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,305 (+75) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,760 (-20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,745 (-20) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,715 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -163 (-78) yuan/ton.

As of August 20: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 211,342 (+4,278) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 186,380 (+4,810) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.53 (0), cup lump 47.8 (-0.35), latex 52.2 (-0.5), RSS3 56.58 (-0.51).

As of August 19, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.33% (-2.52%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.29 (-2.91%).

Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices stopped falling and stabilized. On the news, due to the Vietnam epidemic, the government may implement a new round of control measures. In the future, we will mainly focus on whether repeated epidemics will affect the progress of rubber exports to China. Therefore, the disruption to the supply side of the Southeast Asian epidemic has not yet completely ended. Due to the impact of the epidemic in Indonesia, the operating rate of processing plants has dropped, resulting in a slowdown in production and the progress of exports to China due to the epidemic in Thailand. This has caused the recent domestic port inventory to continue to decline, forming a strong support for prices. In terms of demand, due to the greater downward pressure on the domestic and external economies, the overall recovery is limited, but the future economic situation will still slowly deviate from the weak off-season situation. Therefore, the impact on the demand side is relatively small, and short-term prices more closely follow changes on the supply side.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Mexico's offshore oil platform reduced production due to fire.

Oil prices rebounded sharply yesterday. Judging from the news, there is no significant bullish news except for the Mexican offshore platform fire. Although the substantial recovery in oil prices may be due to the rebound triggered by the exit of short positions closing their positions, it also shows that the basis for the current decline in oil prices is not strong. The main reason for the recent decline is the tightening of China and the US macroeconomic and monetary policies, which have basically been Priced in. From the perspective of crude oil's own fundamentals, although the spot market is weak, inventories are still in a destocking pattern and refinery profits have not been affected. The current fundamental pattern has not undergone a fundamental reversal. Moreover, OPEC may adjust its production policy according to market conditions, the room for oil price adjustment is limited, and the pace of adjustment is coming to an end. The focus of the market in the future will be the monthly OPEC meetings and the issuance of China's crude oil import quotas.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: The surge in LME's cancellation of warehouse receipts drove up the price of copper.

Spot: According to SMM, Shanghai copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and buying interest in the spot market has picked up and regained confidence. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to report a premium of 200-210 yuan/ton, and the market participants maintained a wait-and-see attitude. Due to the willingness to exchange for spot, some holders chose to slightly adjust the quotation to a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton, which increased the inquiries and bargaining sentiment. After the second trading session, some sources of goods can be squeezed to a premium of 170 yuan/ton, which made the market gradually warmer, but the holders have no intention of further price cuts. In the case that there are still sufficient sources of High-Grade Copper, its quotation and that of Standard-Grade Copper maintained a spread of 10-20 yuan/ton, and the average quotation was a premium of 190-200 yuan/ton. The supply of Hydro-Copper was tightening again. A small amount of supply of Hydro-Copper in the market, coupled with an increase in downstream inquiries, had increased buying interest. This boosted the price supporting sentiment of holders and they were unwilling to lower their quotations below 100 yuan. The low-priced sources of some non-registered brands have won the favor of the downstream, occupying part of the consumption field of Hydro-Copper.

View: Yesterday, copper prices maintained a similar rise to that of last Friday, that is, they rose first and then declined, and continued to show the situation of longs entering the market with increased open interests. The sudden increase in the data of LME's cancellation of warehouse receipts in the evening session drove the night market to open higher. On the macro level, the Eurozone PMI fell short of expectations, but only slightly decreased from the previous value. The published data of the US manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations, setting a new low since December 2020, reflecting the slowdown in economic recovery. From a fundamental perspective, due to the “lack of chips”, global auto companies have successively reduced production and stopped production. Among them, the Volkswagen Group’s largest plant reduced production, and Toyota Motor cut its September global car production by 40%. According to the research of Susquehanna Financial Group, the arrival time of chip orders for companies has been extended to more than 20 weeks, indicating that the shortage is still worsening. In terms of inventory, the data of LME's cancellation of warehouse receipts soared to 57,000 tons, and SHFE continued to destock. Import profit and loss continued to be positive, but narrowed from last week. Domestic spot premiums and discounts fell slightly, still maintaining a high level, and the 09-10 contract continued to have a Back structure. On the whole, there is support under the copper price, and market sentiment is still in a state of vigilance. This Friday, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting may guide the future direction of the market. At present, we maintain the judgment that the market has unilateral wide fluctuations and the existence of downside risks.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Processing fees are still weak; Yisheng announced the production plan for the second production line of new materials.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In the context of the fall in gasoline premiums, Asia's PX September balance sheet inventory accumulation is expected to expand.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to wait for the PTA processing fee to be further compressed.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load..

铁矿：发运量重回高位 港口现货跌破千元

观点与逻辑：昨日，钢联公布了最新一期的铁矿石发运及到港数据，澳洲巴西19港铁矿石发运总量2619.2万吨，环比增加342.5万吨。澳洲发运量环比增加253.2万吨至1758.4万吨；巴西发运量环比增加89.3万吨至860.8万吨，创下今年新高，全球发运环比增加446万吨至3304万吨；中国45港到港总量2342.5万吨，环比减少204.2万吨；北方六港到港总量为1422.1万吨，环比增加271.7万吨。铁矿在粗钢压产的背景下，供应增加，需求下滑，种种迹象表明现货价格维持在4位数已经显得不合时宜，昨日港口现货Pb粉价格正式出现了跌破1000的情况，铁矿石主力01合约收于757点，环比下跌20.5点，增仓0.85万手。昨日日青京曹港最低现货价格PB粉998元/吨，环比下跌11元/吨，超特粉700元/吨，下跌10元/吨。

整体来看，目前黑色行情依然由政策主导。由于前期粗钢压产叠加钢材消费不及预期，迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩，同、环比大降，大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力，但随着压产的不断深入，以及成材需求的季节性好转，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期，铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化，价格虽然下跌，但仍能维持高价格水平，随着压产的范围扩大，铁矿压力将逐步加大，推荐远月做空机会，或是多材空矿的对冲套利组合，可超配成材。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿（01合约）、多成材（01合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：关注供应端扰动，胶价止跌

23号，RU主力收盘14360（+120）元/吨，混合胶报价12475元/吨（+75），主力合约基差-1410元/吨（-220）；前二十主力多头持仓87889（-19），空头持仓131206（-1593），净空持仓43317（+1574）。

23号，NR主力收盘价11305（+75）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1760（-20）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1745美元/吨（-20），印尼标胶1715（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-163（-78）元/吨。

截至8月13日：交易所总库存211342（+4278），交易所仓单186380（+4810）。

原料：生胶片52.53（0），杯胶47.8（-0.35），胶水52.2（-0.5），烟片56.58（-0.51）。

截止8月12日，国内全钢胎开工率为61.33%（-2.52%），国内半钢胎开工率为57.29%(-2.91%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价止跌企稳。盘中关于越南疫情将可能实行新一轮的管控措施，后期主要关注对于出口到国内的橡胶进度是否会有影响。因此，东南亚疫情对于供应端的扰动还没有完全结束。印尼因疫情影响，加工厂开工下降，导致产量减缓以及泰国疫情导致的出口到国内进度减缓，都使得近期国内港口库存持续下降，对于价格支撑较强。需求来看，因内外经济下行压力较大，总体回升有限，但后期还是会缓慢走出淡季，因此，需求端的影响较小，短期价格更多跟随供应端变化。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：墨西哥海上石油平台因火灾减产

昨日油价大幅反弹，从消息面来看，除了墨西哥海上平台火灾之外并无显著利多消息，虽然有可能是空头平仓离场引发的超跌反弹，但这也说明当前油价下跌的基础并不牢固，近期下跌的主要原因是中美宏观以及货币政策收紧，基本已经Price in，而从原油自身基本面来看，虽然现货市场表现疲软，但库存仍处于去化格局且炼厂利润未受影响，当前基本面格局没有出现根本性逆转，况且欧佩克可能根据市场情况调整产量政策，油价调整的空间有限，且调整的节奏进入尾声，未来市场关注焦点将是欧佩克月度会议以及中国原油进口配额的发放情况。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：LME注销仓单暴增带动铜价上行

现货方面：据SMM讯，沪铜盘面止跌企稳，现货市场买兴回暖重拾信心。早市平水铜始报于升水200-210元/吨，市场维持观望态势，部分持货商换现意愿下小幅调价至升水180-190元/吨，询价议价情绪提升，第二时段后，部分可压价至升水170元/吨，市场交投逐渐转暖，持货商无意进行进一步降价。好铜货源依旧较多的情况下报价和平水铜维持10-20元/吨的价差，多报于升水190-200元/吨，买兴依靠低价来维持。湿法铜货源则再度趋紧，市场少量货源流通下，加上下游询盘增多，买兴有所提高令持货商挺价情绪提振，不愿调低至百元以下，部分非注册品牌的低价货源获得下游的青睐，占据了部分湿法铜的消费领域。

观点：昨日日盘铜价维持上周五涨势，走势先扬后抑，继续呈现多头增仓入场的局面。晚间LME注销仓单数据暴增，带动夜盘高开。宏观方面，欧元区PMI不及预期，但仅较前值略有下降，第三季度PMI均值达到21年以来最高水平。美国制造业PMI公布不及预期，创下20年12月以来新低，体现出经济恢复速度的放缓。基本面看，受“缺芯”影响，全球车企相继减停产，大众集团最大工厂减产，丰田汽车削减9月全球汽车产量40%。根据Susquehanna Financial Group的研究显示，企业的芯片订单到货时间已经延长到了20周以上，表明短缺情况仍在恶化。库存方面，LME注销仓单数据暴增至5.7万吨，SHFE持续去库。进口盈亏持续为正，但较上周收窄。国内现货升贴水微降，仍维持高位，09-10合约持续Back结构。整体看来，铜价下方有支撑，市场情绪仍处于警惕状态，本周五杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会或将为市场指引未来方向。单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得一度美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1.美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：加工费仍偏弱，逸盛新材料第二条线开车计划

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控。汽油溢价回落背景下，亚洲PX9月平衡表累库预期扩大。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待PTA加工费进一步压缩。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间