Iron ore: Shipment volume returned to a high level, and the port spot price fell below 1,000 yuan.
Opinion and logic: Yesterday, Steel Union announced the latest iron ore shipment and arrival data. The total amount of iron ore shipped from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 26.192 million tons, an increase of 3.425 million tons from the previous month. Shipments in Australia increased by 2.532 million tons from the previous month to 17.584 million tons. Brazil’s shipments increased by 893,000 tons from the previous month to 8.608 million tons, a new high this year. Global shipments increased by 4.46 million tons from the previous month to 33.04 million tons. China’s 45 ports reached 23.425 million tons, a decrease of 2.042 million tons from the previous month. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports was 14.221 million tons, an increase of 2.717 million tons from the previous month. Under the background of limited production of crude steel, iron ore supply increased and demand declined. There are indications that the spot price remains at four digits and it seems unreasonable. Yesterday, the port spot Pb fines price officially fell below 1,000 yuan. The main iron ore 01 contract closed at 757 points, down 20.5 points from the previous month, and the increase in the open interest was 8500 lots. Yesterday, the lowest spot price of PB fines in Qingjing Cao Port was 998 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton month-on-month, and SSF was 700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton.
On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. Due to the limited production and lower-than-expected consumption, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain a high price level. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore is recommended. In addition, the hedging arbitrage combination of initiating a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore is also recommended.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option when price hits high
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;
2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;
3. Shipping data may change drastically;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
Rubber: Pay attention to supply-side disturbance; rubber prices have stopped falling.
On August 23, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,360 (+120) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,475 (+75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1410 yuan/ton (-220); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 87,889 (-19) lots, ,the short position was 131,206 (-1,593) lots, and the net short position was 43,317 (+1,574) lots.
On August 23, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,305 (+75) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,760 (-20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,745 (-20) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,715 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -163 (-78) yuan/ton.
As of August 20: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 211,342 (+4,278) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 186,380 (+4,810) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.53 (0), cup lump 47.8 (-0.35), latex 52.2 (-0.5), RSS3 56.58 (-0.51).
As of August 19, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.33% (-2.52%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.29 (-2.91%).
Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices stopped falling and stabilized. On the news, due to the Vietnam epidemic, the government may implement a new round of control measures. In the future, we will mainly focus on whether repeated epidemics will affect the progress of rubber exports to China. Therefore, the disruption to the supply side of the Southeast Asian epidemic has not yet completely ended. Due to the impact of the epidemic in Indonesia, the operating rate of processing plants has dropped, resulting in a slowdown in production and the progress of exports to China due to the epidemic in Thailand. This has caused the recent domestic port inventory to continue to decline, forming a strong support for prices. In terms of demand, due to the greater downward pressure on the domestic and external economies, the overall recovery is limited, but the future economic situation will still slowly deviate from the weak off-season situation. Therefore, the impact on the demand side is relatively small, and short-term prices more closely follow changes on the supply side.
Strategy: Cautiously bullish
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: Mexico's offshore oil platform reduced production due to fire.
Oil prices rebounded sharply yesterday. Judging from the news, there is no significant bullish news except for the Mexican offshore platform fire. Although the substantial recovery in oil prices may be due to the rebound triggered by the exit of short positions closing their positions, it also shows that the basis for the current decline in oil prices is not strong. The main reason for the recent decline is the tightening of China and the US macroeconomic and monetary policies, which have basically been Priced in. From the perspective of crude oil's own fundamentals, although the spot market is weak, inventories are still in a destocking pattern and refinery profits have not been affected. The current fundamental pattern has not undergone a fundamental reversal. Moreover, OPEC may adjust its production policy according to market conditions, the room for oil price adjustment is limited, and the pace of adjustment is coming to an end. The focus of the market in the future will be the monthly OPEC meetings and the issuance of China's crude oil import quotas.
Copper: The surge in LME's cancellation of warehouse receipts drove up the price of copper.
Spot: According to SMM, Shanghai copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and buying interest in the spot market has picked up and regained confidence. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to report a premium of 200-210 yuan/ton, and the market participants maintained a wait-and-see attitude. Due to the willingness to exchange for spot, some holders chose to slightly adjust the quotation to a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton, which increased the inquiries and bargaining sentiment. After the second trading session, some sources of goods can be squeezed to a premium of 170 yuan/ton, which made the market gradually warmer, but the holders have no intention of further price cuts. In the case that there are still sufficient sources of High-Grade Copper, its quotation and that of Standard-Grade Copper maintained a spread of 10-20 yuan/ton, and the average quotation was a premium of 190-200 yuan/ton. The supply of Hydro-Copper was tightening again. A small amount of supply of Hydro-Copper in the market, coupled with an increase in downstream inquiries, had increased buying interest. This boosted the price supporting sentiment of holders and they were unwilling to lower their quotations below 100 yuan. The low-priced sources of some non-registered brands have won the favor of the downstream, occupying part of the consumption field of Hydro-Copper.
View: Yesterday, copper prices maintained a similar rise to that of last Friday, that is, they rose first and then declined, and continued to show the situation of longs entering the market with increased open interests. The sudden increase in the data of LME's cancellation of warehouse receipts in the evening session drove the night market to open higher. On the macro level, the Eurozone PMI fell short of expectations, but only slightly decreased from the previous value. The published data of the US manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations, setting a new low since December 2020, reflecting the slowdown in economic recovery. From a fundamental perspective, due to the “lack of chips”, global auto companies have successively reduced production and stopped production. Among them, the Volkswagen Group’s largest plant reduced production, and Toyota Motor cut its September global car production by 40%. According to the research of Susquehanna Financial Group, the arrival time of chip orders for companies has been extended to more than 20 weeks, indicating that the shortage is still worsening. In terms of inventory, the data of LME's cancellation of warehouse receipts soared to 57,000 tons, and SHFE continued to destock. Import profit and loss continued to be positive, but narrowed from last week. Domestic spot premiums and discounts fell slightly, still maintaining a high level, and the 09-10 contract continued to have a Back structure. On the whole, there is support under the copper price, and market sentiment is still in a state of vigilance. This Friday, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting may guide the future direction of the market. At present, we maintain the judgment that the market has unilateral wide fluctuations and the existence of downside risks.
On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: Processing fees are still weak; Yisheng announced the production plan for the second production line of new materials.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In the context of the fall in gasoline premiums, Asia's PX September balance sheet inventory accumulation is expected to expand.
(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to wait for the PTA processing fee to be further compressed.
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load..
观点：昨日日盘铜价维持上周五涨势，走势先扬后抑，继续呈现多头增仓入场的局面。晚间LME注销仓单数据暴增，带动夜盘高开。宏观方面，欧元区PMI不及预期，但仅较前值略有下降，第三季度PMI均值达到21年以来最高水平。美国制造业PMI公布不及预期，创下20年12月以来新低，体现出经济恢复速度的放缓。基本面看，受“缺芯”影响，全球车企相继减停产，大众集团最大工厂减产，丰田汽车削减9月全球汽车产量40%。根据Susquehanna Financial Group的研究显示，企业的芯片订单到货时间已经延长到了20周以上，表明短缺情况仍在恶化。库存方面，LME注销仓单数据暴增至5.7万吨，SHFE持续去库。进口盈亏持续为正，但较上周收窄。国内现货升贴水微降，仍维持高位，09-10合约持续Back结构。整体看来，铜价下方有支撑，市场情绪仍处于警惕状态，本周五杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会或将为市场指引未来方向。单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。
策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
关注点：1.美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧