Iron ore: The Ferrous complex rose collectively, and the iron ore basis narrowed.

Yesterday, the Ferrous complex products collectively rose, led by coking coal and coke, and iron ore closely followed. The growth of thread and hot-rolled coil was the smallest, coking coal and coke saw huge gains, and the longs had got considerable profit. The hedging position which initiated a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore chose to leave the market when the coke made a substantial profit, making the short position on the iron ore futures also began to concentrate on liquidation to obtain profit. This also caused market participants to lighten their positions significantly and then prices rebounded significantly. Yesterday, the main iron ore 01 contract closed at 817.5 points, up 60.5 points from the previous day, with the open interest losing 23,000 lots. There has been a significant rebound in port spot simultaneously, but the rebound was obviously not as strong as that of futures. The lowest spot price of PB fines at Cao Port was 1,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous day. SSF reported 713 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton. The transaction volume has increased, and the basis has narrowed significantly by 50 to 120.

On the whole, the current black market is still dominated by policies, and the policy of suppressing production is still being carried out step by step. The output of molten iron is steadily declining, and there is still room for decline. In the early stage, the production of crude steel was suppressed and the consumption of steel was not as expected, which forced the steel mills to significantly shrink their demand for scrap. Both the same period and the month-on-month ratio showed a sharp decline. Because of the reduction in the amount of crude steel brought about by the reduction in scrap, the production process was suppressed in the first half. China has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore from suppressed production. However, with the continuous deepening of suppressed production and the seasonal improvement in demand for finished products, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal in the second half as the crude steel suppressed production gradually began. In the short term, iron ore supply and demand have not deteriorated significantly. Although prices have fallen, they can still maintain high price levels. As the scope of production suppression expands, even if prices rebound, there will not be much room for iron ore pressures to gradually increase. We recommend short-selling opportunities for long-month rallies, or a hedge arbitrage combination of multiple materials and short ore mines, which can be over-matched.

On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. The production restriction policy is still proceeding step by step. The output of molten iron has steadily declined, and there is still room for decline. Due to the limited production and lower-than-expected consumption, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions and the seasonal improvement in demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil, in the future, as the production restrictions of crude steel gradually begin, the supply and demand of iron ore will begin to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain a high price level. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore is recommended. In addition, the hedging arbitrage combination of initiating a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore is also recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Arrivals at the port fell short of expectations, and port inventories continued to decline.

On August 24, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,400 (+40) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,500 (+25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1275 yuan/ton (+135); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 87,907 (+18) lots, ,the short position was 130,580 (-626) lots, and the net short position was 42,673 (-644) lots.

On August 24, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,255 (-50) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,765 (+5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,755 (+10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,715 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -75 (+169) yuan/ton.

As of August 20: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 211,342 (+4,278) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 186,380 (+4,810) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.39 (-0.14), cup lump 47.9 (+0.1), latex 51.2 (-1), RSS3 56.79 (+0.21).

As of August 19, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.33% (-2.52%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.29 (-2.91%).

Opinion: Driven by the warmer market sentiment, the rubber futures prices continued to rebound slightly yesterday. The prices of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas presented a mix of gains and losses. As the weather improves, the price of raw materials is expected to continue to increase in the future. The current price support mainly comes from the supply side. As the epidemic affected China's domestic rhythm, domestic port inventories continued to decline. In terms of demand, due to the greater downward pressure on the domestic and external economies, the overall recovery is limited, but the future economic situation will still slowly deviate from the weak off-season situation. Therefore, the impact on the demand side is relatively small, and short-term prices more closely follow changes on the supply side. Currently, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API crude oil and refined oil inventories fell.

We believe that oil prices remain high in the fourth quarter. Although the probability of oil prices exceeding $80/barrel is not high, the room for a substantial downward trend is also limited. On the one hand, it is due to demand recovery, and on the other hand, due to OPEC's production control. If there is an oversupply, OPEC will adjust quickly, and supplies from the United States and Iran will not recover soon. On the demand side, it is expected to recover to around 98 million barrels per day by the end of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 6 million barrels per day. The recent epidemic has indeed caused a downward revision in demand, but the magnitude is not too great (less than 1 million barrels per day). The momentum and trend of demand recovery have not been disrupted. The recent increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States is mainly due to the decline in the number of DUCs (drilled but not completed), and more wells need to be drilled to supplement the number of DUCs. But more drilling does not mean a faster recovery in crude oil production. At present, shale oil producers still maintain a relatively high capital expenditure model. The probability of a significant recovery in U.S. crude oil production in the fourth quarter is not high, and it is expected to recover to 12 million barrels per day.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: The Fed's reduction in debt purchases is still an important signal of market concern.

Spot: According to SMM, trading in the spot market continued to pick up yesterday, and part of the downstream steadily entered the market and maintained rid-demand purchases. In addition, as some buying orders had higher demand for the current month's contract, the market quotation was firmer than the previous two days. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/ton, but there were fewer inquiries in the market. However, holders are reluctant to adjust their prices too much. Some holders slightly adjusted their prices to a premium of 190 yuan/ton, which made the market's trading activity rebound. After the second trading session, there was a small amount of supply outflow with a premium of 180 yuan/ton in the market. High-Grade Copperoffered a quotation of a premium of 200-220 yuan/ton, and the overall quotation was relatively firm. However, the market is not as popular as that of Standard-Grade Copper and the transaction was slightly insipid. The supply of Hydro-Copper was still scarce, and the spread between the current month's contract and the next month was large. Holders all hoped to support the current month’s price at a premium of 100 yuan, which made buyers and sellers more divergent, and there are few large transactions in the market.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Yisheng's second production line for new materials has been put into production; TA operating rate has gradually picked up.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In the context of the fall in gasoline premiums, Asia's PX September balance sheet inventory accumulation is expected to expand.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to wait for the PTA processing fee to be further compressed.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load..

铁矿：黑色系集体上涨，铁矿基差收窄

昨日，黑色系商品集体上涨，双焦领衔，铁矿紧密跟随，成材涨幅最小，双焦涨幅巨大，多头盈利丰厚，前期多焦空矿对冲的头寸在焦炭大幅盈利的情况下选择离场，所以造就铁矿期货上的空配头寸也开始集中平仓兑现盈利，所以造成盘面大幅减仓明显反弹。昨日，铁矿石主力01合约收于817.5点，环比上涨60.5点，减仓2.3万手，港口现货同步出现了明显反弹，但反弹力度明显不及期货，日青京曹港最低现货价格PB粉1020元/吨，环比上涨22元/吨，超特粉713元/吨，上涨13元/吨，成交有所放量，同时基差大幅收窄50至120。

整体来看，目前黑色行情依然由政策主导，压产政策仍在按部就班进行，铁水产量稳步下降，且仍有下降空间。前期由于粗钢压产叠加钢材消费不及预期，迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩，同、环比均呈现大幅下降态势，由于是废钢减量带来的粗钢减量，所以，上半场压产过程中大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力，但随着压产的不断深入，以及成材需求的季节性好转，下半场随着粗钢压产逐步开始，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期，铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化，价格虽然下跌，但仍能维持高价格水平，随着压产的范围扩大，即使价格反弹，空间也不会很大，后期铁矿压力将逐步加大，推荐远月逢高做空机会，或是多材空矿的对冲套利组合，可超配成材。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿（01合约）、多成材（01合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：到港不及预期，港口库存继续下降

24号，RU主力收盘14400（+40）元/吨，混合胶报价12500元/吨（+25），主力合约基差-1275元/吨（+135）；前二十主力多头持仓87907（+18），空头持仓130580（-626），净空持仓42673（-644）。

24号，NR主力收盘价11255（-50）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1765（+5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1755美元/吨（+10），印尼标胶1715（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-75（+169）元/吨。

截至8月13日：交易所总库存211342（+4278），交易所仓单186380（+4810）。

原料：生胶片52.39（-0.14），杯胶47.9（+0.1），胶水51.2（-1），烟片56.79（+0.21）。

截止8月12日，国内全钢胎开工率为61.33%（-2.52%），国内半钢胎开工率为57.29%(-2.91%）。

观点：在市场氛围缓和带动下，昨天橡胶期价延续小幅反弹。泰国主产区原料价格涨跌互现，随着天气好转，预计后期原料价格持续增加。目前价格的支撑主要来自供应端，因疫情影响到国内的节奏，带来国内港口库存延续下降。需求来看，因内外经济下行压力较大，总体回升有限，但后期还是会缓慢走出淡季，因此，需求端的影响较小，短期价格更多跟随供应端变化。预计胶价区间震荡为主。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API原油与成品油库存下降

四季度油价我们认为依然处于高位，虽然超出80美元/桶概率不大，但大幅下行的空间也有限，一方面是需求复苏，另一方面也是欧佩克的产量控制，如果出现供过于求，欧佩克会快速调整，美国和伊朗的供应也不会很快恢复，需求方面预计到年底恢复至9800万桶/日附近，同比增长约600万桶/日，近期的疫情的确造成需求下修，但幅度并不算太大，不到100万桶/日，需求复苏的动能和趋势没有受到破坏。美国钻机数量近期增长主要因为DUC（已钻但未完井）数量下降，需要钻更多井来补充DUC数量，但钻井更多并不意味着原油产量复苏更快，目前页岩油生产商依然保持较高资本开支纪律，美国原油产量在四季度显著复苏的概率不大，预计恢复至1200万桶/日。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：美联储缩债仍为市场关注重要信号

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场交投持续回暖，部分下游稳定入市刚需采购，外加部分买盘对当月票需求较高，市场报价较前两天较为坚挺。早市平水铜始报于升水200元/吨后，市场虽然询盘者较少，但持货商也不愿过多调价，部分持货商小幅调价至升水190元/吨，市场交投活跃度有所回暖，第二时段后听闻少量升水180元/吨货源流出。好铜报至升水200-220元/吨，整体报价也较为坚挺，但市场青睐度不及平水铜，成交略显清淡。湿法铜货源则依旧较为稀缺，且当月票与下月票价差较大，持货商对当月票报价都欲挺价于升水百元上方，买卖双方分歧较大，市场难闻大量成交。

观点：昨日日盘铜价呈震荡走势，盘面表现空头减仓离场局面。夜盘沪铜高开，盘面表现多头增仓入场局面。宏观方面，根据市场消息，预计9月国际主干航线将迎来新一轮涨价，目前旺季背景下，疫情叠加各类事件影响全球供应链，供需失衡局面将加剧。美国辉瑞生产的新冠疫苗获得FDA完全批准，市场对于疫情影响经济复苏的担忧得到缓解。晚间公布的美国8月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数创去年7月以来新低，但市场机构分析认为目前仍保持积极态势。基本面看，受东南亚疫情影响，2021年7月废铜进口量为14.94万吨，环比下降0.7%。消费端，“缺芯”影响加剧，市场预计今年全球范围内汽车行业将减产630万辆至710万辆轻型车，同时，根据中国汽车工业协会对行业内11家汽车重点企业的数据整理显示，8月上旬，11家重点企业汽车生产完成70.7万辆，同比下降34.3%。库存方面，LME小幅去库，SHFE持续去库。进口盈亏为正，持续收窄。国内现货升贴水再次上升，09-10合约持续Back结构。整体看来，旺季背景下海运价格高涨或将进一步干扰目前供需格局，美国辉瑞疫苗获批短期缓解市场情绪，中长期是否可以扭转疫情形势仍待考验。从盘面多空动向来看，市场情绪仍处于警惕状态，等待美联储宣布缩债信号。单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得一度美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1.美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA:逸盛新材料第二条线已投料，TA开工率逐步回升

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控。汽油溢价回落背景下，亚洲PX9月平衡表累库预期扩大。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待PTA加工费进一步压缩。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间