Iron Ore: The consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil was weak, and the trend of iron ore was uncharacteristic.

Yesterday, the overall performance of Ferrous complex was weak, the price of thread and hot-rolled coil dropped significantly, and coking coal and coke simultaneously followed. However, iron ore has uncharacteristically became the strongest performer. Yesterday afternoon, the Steel Union data showed that the output of thread and hot-rolled coil remained stable. Although the extent of destocking has increased, the overall volume is not enough. As the demand for the balance sheet did not perform as expected, it also cast a shadow over the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". In terms of futures, the main iron ore 01 contract surged strongly during the intraday session, reaching a maximum of 844.5 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 816 points, up 13.5 points from the previous day, with open interest losing 26,000 lots. Port spot prices fluctuated, with most of them rising, and only Carajás iron ore fines (SFCJ) with higher premiums declined. The lowest spot price of PB fines at Cao Port was 1,037 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. SSF reported 718 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton, and the spot transaction was 1.01 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons from the previous month. Recently, the port spot market has become more active. Towards the end of the month, there were purchases by traders in both areas of Tangshan and Shandong. Most steel mills continue to purchase on-demand, and the main types of transactions are mostly low-to-medium-grade resources. Among them, the demand for mixed fines in low-to-medium-grade resources has increased.

On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. The production restriction policy is still proceeding step by step. The output of molten iron has steadily declined, and there is still room for decline. Due to the limited production and lower-than-expected consumption, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions and the seasonal improvement in demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil, in the future, as the production restrictions of crude steel gradually begin, the supply and demand of iron ore will begin to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain a high price level. As the scope of production restriction expands, even if prices rebound, there will not be much room for a rebound. In the future, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore when price hits high is recommended. In addition, the hedging arbitrage combination of initiating a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore is also recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Market prices fell sharply, and the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed.

On August 26, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,055 (-420) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,300 (-225) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -930 yuan/ton (+370); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 89,161 (+1,254) lots, ,the short position was 128,608 (-1,972) lots, and the net short position was 39,447 (-3,226) lots.

On August 26, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,900 (-370) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,745 (-40) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,735 (-40) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,685 (-40) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported 7 (+111) yuan/ton.

As of August 20: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 211,342 (+4,278) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 186,380 (+4,810) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.23 (-0.16), cup lump 47.7 (-0.2), latex 50.8 (0), RSS3 55.56 (-0.57).

As of August 19, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.33% (-2.52%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.29 (-2.91%).

Opinion: The price of rubber fell sharply late yesterday, which may be related to the close delivery of the RU09 contract and the continued decline in the operating rate of domestic tire factories. Yesterday, the prices of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas fell slightly. With the gradual release of production, the price of raw materials is suppressed. Entering September, with the reduction of rain, the release of raw material production is expected to accelerate. At present, the support of domestic rubber prices mainly comes from the low port inventory and the support of domestic raw material prices. However, demand is under greater downward pressure due to the internal and external economies, and the recently announced car sales and heavy truck sales have all dropped significantly. From a seasonal perspective, the future economic trend will slowly get out of the off-season influence, but the rebound will be restrained by weaker demand. Therefore, the impact on the demand side is relatively small, and short-term prices more closely follow changes on the supply side. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the RU September contract delivery situation and the suppression of the RSS3 window. It is expected that prices will remain range-bound.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The epidemic is under control, and China's oil consumption is expected to gradually recover.

China's consumption recovery is still the focus of the market. With the number of new infections in China cleared, the current round of the epidemic has been effectively controlled. From the perspective of refined oil consumption, the impact of this epidemic has gradually subsided. From the traffic congestion index, China has recovered to around 90%. Regarding the recovery of crude oil consumption, we still need to wait for the end of the inspection of local refining quota transactions and tax evasion (it is reported that it is nearing completion), and the issuance of a new round of quotas in the future. We estimate that the local refinery quota of approximately 500,000 barrels per day may be reduced. However, considering the newly added crude oil quotas of Zhejiang Petrochemical, Shenghong and other large refining and chemical plants, the overall quota is expected to be still considerable. We believe that after the issuance of future quotas, China's crude oil buying interest will return in the fourth quarter.

Strategy: neutral

Risk: None

Copper: There are frequent hawkish speeches from global central banks.

Spot: According to SMM, trading in the spot market was still relatively insipid yesterday. The mainstream market has already quoted prices for the next month's contract, but due to the high demand for the current month of some market participants, the spread between the current month and the next month is around 20-30 yuan/ton. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 190 yuan/ton for the next month contract, and then quickly dropped to 170-180 yuan/ton. Part of the buying order remained purchase on demand at the price of a premium of 170 yuan/ton. After that, there was little resources with a premium of 170 yuan/ton in the market, and then the overall price of Standard-Grade Copper stabilized at 180-190 yuan/ton. The large spread between High-Grade Copper quotations and that of Standard-Grade Copper was still difficult to see. CCC-P even quoted a premium of 190 yuan/ton like Standard-Grade Copper, but there were still few large transactions in the market. Although Guixi-Copper was priced at a premium of 210 yuan/ton, there was little buying interest in the market. The overall supply of Hydro-Copper was still tight, and the quotation stood at a premium of 90-110 yuan/ton. However, the strong willingness of sellers to support the price made the buyers and sellers have greater differences in prices, and there were few large transactions in the market.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: There is still no improvement in the number of weaving orders; PTA processing fees are still weak.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In the context of the fall in gasoline premiums, Asia's PX September balance sheet inventory accumulation is expected to expand.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to wait for the PTA processing fee to be further compressed.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load..

铁矿：成材消费疲软，铁矿一反常态

昨日，黑色系商品整体表现较弱，成材明显回落，双焦同步跟随，铁矿一反常态成为黑色系商品中最为强势的一个。昨日午后钢联数据显示成材产量持稳，去库幅度虽有增加但整体幅度还不够，表需表现不如人意，就此也给金九银十的旺季蒙上了一层阴影。期货方面，铁矿石主力01合约盘中强势冲高，最高上冲至844.5元/吨，最终收于816点，环比涨13.5点，减仓2.6万手，港口现货涨跌不一，多数上涨，只有溢价较高的卡粉出现回落，日青京曹港最低现货价格PB粉1037元/吨，环比涨12元/吨，超特粉718元/吨，涨11元/吨，现货成交101万吨，环比增加32万吨。近日港口现货市场活跃度较好，临近月底，山东唐山两区域均出现贸易商交单采购。钢厂多继续按需采购，成交主要品种多为中低品资源，其中低品资源中对于混合粉需求有所增加。

整体来看，目前黑色行情依然由政策主导，压产政策仍在按部就班进行，铁水产量稳步下降，且仍有下降空间。前期由于粗钢压产叠加钢材消费不及预期，迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩，同、环比均呈大幅下降态势，由于是废钢减量带来的粗钢减量，所以，上半场压产过程中大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力，但随着压产的不断深入，以及成材需求的季节性好转，下半场随着粗钢压产逐步开始，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期，铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化，价格虽然下跌，但仍能维持高价格水平，随着压产的范围扩大，即使价格反弹，空间也不会很大，后期铁矿压力将逐步加大，推荐远月逢高做空机会，或是多材空矿的对冲套利组合，可超配成材。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿（01合约）、多成材（01合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：盘面价格大幅回落，期现价差缩窄

26号，RU主力收盘14055（-420）元/吨，混合胶报价12300元/吨（-225），主力合约基差-930元/吨（+370）；前二十主力多头持仓89161（+1254），空头持仓128608（-1972），净空持仓39447（-3226）。

26号，NR主力收盘价10900（-370）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1745（-40）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1735美元/吨（-40），印尼标胶1685（-40）美元/吨。主力合约基差7（+111）元/吨。

截至8月13日：交易所总库存211342（+4278），交易所仓单186380（+4810）。

原料：生胶片52.23（-0.16），杯胶47.7（-0.2），胶水50.8（0），烟片55.56（-0.57）。

截止8月12日，国内全钢胎开工率为61.33%（-2.52%），国内半钢胎开工率为57.29%(-2.91%）。

观点：昨天胶价尾盘大幅下挫，或跟RU09合约临近交割以及国内轮胎厂开工率继续下降有关。昨天泰国主产区原料价格小幅回落，随着产量的逐步释放，原料价格受抑制，进入9月，随着雨水减少，预计原料产量释放将有所加速。目前国内橡胶价格的支撑主要来自港口库存低位以及国内原料价格的支撑，但需求因内外经济下行压力较大，近期公布的汽车销售以及重卡销量均出现明显回落。季节性来看，后期将会缓慢走出淡季，但回升幅度受制偏弱的需求，因此，需求端的影响或较小。短期价格更多跟随供应端变化，但短期需关注RU9月合约交割情况以及上方烟片窗口的压制，预计价格区间震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：疫情得到控制，中国石油消费有望逐步复苏

中国消费复苏仍旧是市场关注焦点，随着国内新增感染人数清零，本轮疫情已经得到有效控制，从成品油消费的角度来看，本次的疫情影响已经逐步消退，从交通拥堵指数来看，中国已经恢复至90%左右，而原油消费复苏目前来看仍需要等待对地炼配额交易以及逃税等问题的核查结束（据悉已经接近尾声），以及未来新一轮配额的发放，我们预计大约有50万桶/日的地炼配额可能受到削减，但考虑到浙石化、盛虹等大炼化装置新增的原油配额，整体配额预计可能仍较为可观，我们认为在未来配额下发之后，四季度中国原油买兴将会回归。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：全球央行前鹰声频传

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场交投依旧略显清淡，市场主流已然对下月票报价，但由于市场部分买盘对当月票需求较大，当月票与下月票价差围绕在20-30元/吨，早市平水铜对下月票始报于升水190元/吨后迅速回落至170-180元/吨货源，部分买盘在升水170元/吨报价后按需采购后市场便难闻升水170元/吨货源持续流出，整体报价企稳于升水180-190元/吨。好铜报价和平水铜依旧难见价差，CCC-P甚至和平水铜同样报至升水190元/吨依旧难闻大量成交，贵溪铜虽挺价于升水210元/吨也难闻市场大量买兴。湿法铜整体货源依旧偏紧，报至升水90-110元/吨，但卖方挺价意愿强烈，买卖双方对价格分歧较大，市场难闻大量成交。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得一度美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：织造订单未有改善，PTA加工费仍偏弱

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控。汽油溢价回落背景下，亚洲PX9月平衡表累库预期扩大。

策略建议：单边：观望，等待PTA加工费进一步压缩。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间