Iron Ore: Iron ore rebounded, pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market.

Iron ore fell sharply in the context of the previous restrictions on crude steel production, but it rebounded last week. As of Friday's close, the main iron ore 01 contract closed at 840 points, up 62 points (7.9%) from the previous week. Affected by futures, the spot market also rose to varying degrees. The lowest spot price of PB fines at Cao Port was 1,056 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton from last week. SSF reported 720 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis has also been significantly reduced. As of last week, the basis of the SSF corresponding to the iron ore 01 contract was 109 points, which was 51 points less than the previous week.

In terms of supply, global iron ore shipments totaled 33.039 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.462 million tons. The total amount of iron ore shipped from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 26.192 million tons, an increase of 3.425 million tons from the previous month; Australia shipped 17.584 million tons, an increase of 2.532 million tons from the previous month; of which 13.68 million tons were shipped from Australia to China, an increase of 678,000 tons from the previous month; Brazil shipped 8.608 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 893,000 tons. This week, iron ore shipments have increased substantially compared to the previous month. Under the background of domestic crude steel production restrictions, iron ore still shows surplus expectations.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 74.22%, an increase of 0.65% from the previous week and a decrease of 17.19% from the previous year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 85.30%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous week, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.34%. The profit rate of steel mills was 89.18%, a decrease of 0.00% week-on-week and 6.06% year-on-year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.2705 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,600 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 248,700 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel plants with a blast furnace operating rate of 57.32%, an increase of 0.14% week-on-week; a capacity utilization rate of 69.39%, an increase of 0.16% week-on-week; a utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity of 75.53%, a decrease of 10.68% from the same period last year; and a steel mill profit rate of 77.91 %, the same week-on-week. The data shows that the operating rate of the blast furnace is showing a downward trend. With the increase in the breadth and intensity of the production restriction, the operating rate may shrink to a greater extent, and the result is a decline in the output of molten iron. Therefore, the demand for iron ore will decline.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted the import iron ore inventory of 45 ports nationwide was 1,2920.9, an increase of 125.12 week-on-week; the average daily port congestion volume increased by 1.37 to 296.48. Australian ores increased by 133.5 at 6548.24, Brazilian ores increased by 73.3 at 3731.5. Trade ore increased by 135 at 7338.4, pellets increased by 7.7 ay 420.7, iron ore concentrates increased by 34.4 at 1025.2, lump ore increased by 28.1 at 1980.2, coarse iron powder increased by 54.97 at 9494.9. The number of ships in the port was 182, a drop of 3. Due to the decline in operating rates, market transactions were insipid. The increase in arrivals has led to a certain increase in inventory at the port, and the increase in inventory is relatively large.

On the whole, the current Ferrous complex is dominated by policies. Due to the limited production and lower-than-expected consumption, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-year ratios have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore caused by production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore will begin to undergo a significant reversal. There are signs of a short-term rebound in market prices. In the short term, pay attention to the situation of steel mills restocking inventory, and need to track the sentiment of the spot market and price changes. In the long run, with the implementation of the future production restriction policy, iron ore still faces greater downward pressure. In the long run, the opportunity of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore is recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore; initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore.

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Port inventory is at a year-on-year low, and the room for rubber prices to continue to decline will be limited.

Last week, rubber futures prices fell sharply, on the one hand it was a macro push. The expectation of the Fed to shrink its balance sheet makes the market atmosphere weaker, and Shanghai Rubber is approaching its delivery period, and the premium of the 09 contract is still under pressure. NR is under pressure as the operating rate of domestic tire factories further weakens.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of August 27 was 219,592 tons (+8250), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 188,780 tons (+2400). Due to the domestic rubber delivery peak season, especially the increase in output in the main producing areas of Yunnan, the recent stock exchange growth rate has continued to increase. The difference in the inventory changes of dark and light colored rubber has also brought about a further narrowing of the spread between the two. As of August 22, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly due to the lower than expected arrivals, and the absolute amount was also at a low level in recent years compared to the same period last year.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of August 26, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 55.89% (-5.44%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 57.65 (-0.36%). The weak domestic demand and the pressure on the finished product inventory of tire factories have caused the recent operating rate to continue to decline. Seasonally, the operating rate in September is expected to usher in a seasonal improvement, but due to the economic downturn in overseas, the overall improvement is limited.

Opinion: After the sharp decline last week, the spread between rubber futures and spot prices has further narrowed, and the hedging pressure on the market may be eased to a certain extent. From the perspective of supply and demand, demand is facing downward pressure on the domestic and foreign economies, and the overall peak season improvement of "golden September and silver October" may be relatively limited. However, the room for tire factory operating rates to continue to decline may also be limited. In the future, the main focus will be on the destocking of the finished product inventory of the tire factory, otherwise the raw material procurement motivation will not be shown. Therefore, the demand side basically tends to be weak and stable, and future price fluctuations may come more from changes on the supply side. Until the trend of inventory destocking in domestic ports is not reversed, the support for rubber is expected to remain strong. The upward momentum of prices needs to see a significant improvement on the demand side and further tightening on the supply side. The short-term supply and demand drive is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate mainly at low levels.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The hurricane affected the U.S. Gulf oil supply chain, and refined oil crack spread increased.

Oil prices rebounded sharply last week. From the perspective of the inter-month spread, Brent's performance is stronger than WTI, and the BW spread has narrowed significantly, mainly due to the 20 million barrels reserve release plan of the US Department of Energy last week. From the perspective of output, inventory, and refinery operating rate, the fundamentals of the United States are still relatively healthy, and the trend of destocking has not been reversed. However, since the released strategic reserves are mainly sulfur-containing crude oil, Mars in the U.S. Gulf region has significantly increased its discount to LLS, and the market has already “Price in” the U.S. Department of Energy’s reserve release plan. On the other hand, although Mexico’s offshore platform fire caused a production interruption of about 420,000 barrels per day, most of the lost production will be restarted within a week. At present, the Mexican National Petroleum Corporation said that it will be able to restore most of its production before Monday, so the impact of the Mexican fire has been minimal.

At present, the market is most concerned about the impact of Hurricane Ida. The hurricane has made landfall in Louisiana and has a direct impact on the oil supply chain in the Gulf of America. In terms of oil production, the affected capacity is approximately 1.74 million barrels per day, and the affected refinery’s capacity is 2.11 million barrels per day. At the same time, the logistics infrastructure has also been significantly affected, such as the suspension of operations in the Port of Louisiana and the temporary closure of parts of the Colonial Pipeline. Although the current supply and demand are almost the same in terms of impact, historically, the possibility of damage to offshore oil platforms is low, and they will recover quickly once the hurricane passes. However, facilities such as ports, piers, pipelines and refineries are more vulnerable to damage and slower to recover. We believe that the short-term gasoline and diesel crack spread in the United States will be significantly boosted. Since the supply and demand of crude oil are affected by similar magnitudes, the directionality is not significant, and the future depends on the speed of the recovery of upstream and downstream infrastructure. With reference to historical conditions, if there are no secondary disasters such as floods in 2018, the impact on the oil market will also be short-term. Many hurricanes in history have also proved that the oil supply chain in the U.S. Gulf region has strong resilience.

Strategy: neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: Powell's speech finally landed, and it may drive copper prices upward in the short term.

Spot situation: According to SMM news, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of August 27 was between 68,270 yuan/ton and 69,610 yuan/ton, showing a trend of first rising and then falling in the middle of the week. The average premium and discount quotation of Standard-Grade Copper ran from 180 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation in the middle of the week. Copper prices rebounded last week. The Shanghai Copper 10 contract rose from a minimum of 67,590 yuan/ton to a maximum of 69,860 yuan/ton. It closed at 69,680 yuan/ton on Friday night, a weekly increase of 2,090 yuan/ton.

Short-term view: From a macro point of view, the US manufacturing PMI announced last week fell short of expectations, and the overall performance of US real GDP in the second quarter and the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week performed well. The Jackson Hole meeting, which has attracted much market attention, was held. Powell said that Taper might be appropriate during the year. He also emphasized that inflation is temporary and pointed out that Taper is not a signal to raise interest rates. In this speech, Powell deliberately played down the influence of Taper, which was interpreted as a "dovish" signal by the market, and the price of copper rose in response to Friday night trading.

From a fundamental point of view, in terms of copper concentrates, the TC index rose again last week, and positive and negative news on the mining end appeared frequently. Focus on Chile’s mining royalties bill, which has been approved by the House of Representatives and is currently under consideration in the Senate. If passed, a 3% royalties will be imposed on the sales of Chilean copper, which will affect the output of Chilean copper concentrate. With regard to copper scrap, due to the continued impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic, the volume of scrap copper imports fell month-on-month in July. At present, scrap copper has no substitute advantage for refined copper, which supports the consumption of refined copper to a certain extent. In terms of imports, LME Copper was relatively strong last week, which led to a continuous decline in the import price ratio, and the import profit and loss narrowed. In terms of reserves release, the State Reserve Bureau announced that the third copper reserve release was 30,000 tons, which was the same as the previous time. In terms of inventory, LME inventory cancellation warehouse receipts soared to 100,000 tons, and SHFE weekly inventory continued to destock. In terms of downstream consumption, according to SMM, the operating rate of refined copper increased for three consecutive weeks last week. However, with the continuous weekly rebound of copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment is currently cautious. Therefore, consumption is relatively supportive under the current background of low inventories and high premiums. The bullish macro factors may stimulate copper prices to rise in the short-term, but we need to be cautious about the upside.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Yisheng's supply of new materials rebounded, and downstream negative feedback continued.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance of filament companies, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In September, the Asian PX balance sheet entered the accumulation phase for the first time.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude, and to wait for the PTA processing fee to be further compressed.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load..

铁矿石：铁矿超跌反弹 关注现货情绪

上周，铁矿在前期粗钢压产的背景下大幅下跌，上周出现反弹，至周五收盘铁矿石主力01合约收于840点，较前一周上涨62点（7.9%），受期货影响，现货也有不同程度的上涨，日青京曹港最低现货价格PB粉1056元/吨，较上周跌47元/吨，超特粉720元/吨，较上周涨10元/吨，同时基差也得以大幅收缩，截止上周，超特粉对应铁矿石01合约基差109点，较前一周收缩51点。

供应方面，全球铁矿石发运总量3303.9万吨，环比增加446.2万吨；澳洲巴西19港铁矿发运总量2619.2万吨，环比增加342.5万吨；澳洲发运量1758.4万吨，环比增加253.2万吨；其中澳洲发往中国的量1368万吨，环比增加67.8万吨；巴西发运量860.8万吨，环比增加89.3万吨。本周铁矿发运环比大幅提高，在国内粗钢压产的大背景下，铁矿石仍显过剩预期。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率74.22%，环比上周增加0.65%，同比去年下降17.19%；高炉炼铁产能利用率85.30%，环比下降0.17%，同比下降9.34%；钢厂盈利率89.18%，环比下降0.00%，同比下降6.06%；日均铁水产量227.05万吨，环比下降0.46万吨，同比下降24.87万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率57.32%，环比增加0.14%，产能利用率69.39%，环比增加0.16%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为75.53%，较去年同期下降10.68%，钢厂盈利率77.91%，环比持平。数据显示，高炉开工率呈现下行趋势，随着压产广度和强度的增加，开工率或出现较大幅度的压缩，由此产生的结果就是铁水产量下降，因此，对铁矿石需求将成下降态势。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45港进口铁矿库存12920.9，环比增125.12；日均疏港量296.48增1.37。分量方面，澳矿6548.24增133.5，巴西矿3731.5增73.3，贸易矿7338.4增135 ，球团420.7增7.7，精粉1025.2增34.4，块矿1980.2增28.1，粗粉9494.9增54.97；在港船舶182条降3条。由于开工率下降，市场成交一般，到港增加，导致港口出现了一定增库，增库幅度较大。

整体来看，目前黑色行情依然由政策主导。由于粗钢压产叠加钢材消费不及预期，迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩，同、环比大降，大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力，但随着压产的不断深入，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期，铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化，价格短期有超跌反弹迹象，短期注意钢厂补库情况，跟踪现货情绪及价格变动情况，长期看，随着后期压产政策实施，铁矿仍面临较大的下行压力，长期看仍推荐远月做空机会。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿、多成材空铁矿石

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：港口库存同比低位，胶价继续下行受限

上周橡胶期价大幅下行，一方面是宏观的推动，美联储缩表的预期使得市场氛围转弱，而沪胶临近交割，09合约升水仍面临压力，NR则在国内轮胎厂开工率进一步示弱下，价格承压。

国内交易所总库存截止8月27为219592吨（+8250），期货仓单量188780吨（+2400），国内割胶旺季，尤其是云南主产区产量跟进使得近期交易所库存增速继续提升。深浅色胶的库存变化差异也带来两者价差的进一步缩窄。截至8月22日，因到港量不及预期，青岛保税区库存延续小幅回落，绝对量同比也处于近年低位。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止8月26日，全钢胎企业开工率55.89%（-5.44%），半钢胎企业开工率57.65（-0.36%）。国内需求的示弱以及轮胎厂成品库存压力带来近期开工率继续下滑。季节性来看，9月开工率有望迎来季节性改善，但因海外内经济下行，总体改善有限。

观点：经历上周的大幅下挫之后，橡胶期现价差进一步缩窄，盘面的套保压力或有一定缓解。供需端来看，需求因为国内外经济面临下行压力，总体金九银十的旺季改善或较为有限，但轮胎厂开工率继续下行的空间或也有限，后期主要关注轮胎厂成品库存的去化，否则原料采购动力无法显现，因此需求端基本趋于弱稳的状态。后期价格的波动或更多来自于供应端的变化。在国内港口库存去化的趋势没有扭转之前，预计橡胶下方的支撑仍较强，而价格上行的动力则需要看到需求端的明显改善以及供应端进一步紧缩，短期供需驱动偏弱，预计价格低位震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：飓风影响美湾石油供应链，成品油裂差走强

上周油价大幅反弹，从月差来看，布伦特表现要强于WTI，BW价差显著收窄，主要原因来自上周美国能源部2000万桶的抛储计划，而从产量、库存以及炼厂开工率等角度来看，美国的基本面仍相对健康，库存去化的趋势尚未逆转，不过由于释放的战略储备主要是含硫原油，因此美湾地区Mars对LLS贴水明显拉大，市场对于美国能源部的抛储计划已经Price in。而另一方面，墨西哥的海上平台火灾虽然导致了约42万桶/日的产量中断，但绝大部分损失产量会在一周内重启，目前墨西哥国家石油公司表示在周一前能够恢复绝大部分产量，因此墨西哥大火的影响已经微乎其微。

而目前市场最为关注的是飓风Ida的影响，飓风目前已经在路易斯安那州登陆，对美湾地区的石油供应链产生直接冲击，石油生产方面，受影响产能约174万桶/日，受影响的炼厂产能在211万桶/日，同时物流基础设施也受到显著影响如路易斯安娜港暂停作业以及科洛尼尔管道部分线路临时关停，虽然目前从影响上看供应与需求几乎相当，但从历史的情况来看，海上石油平台受损的可能性较低，一旦飓风过境之后将会快速恢复，但港口码头、管道与炼厂等设施更容易受损而恢复较慢，我们认为短期美国地区的汽柴油裂解价差将会受到明显提振，原油方面因为供需受到影响的幅度相近，因此方向性上不显著，未来要取决于上下游基础设施的恢复快慢，参考历史情况，如果不出现类似2018年的洪涝等次生灾害，那么对石油市场的影响也是偏短期的，历史上多次飓风也证明了美湾地区的石油供应链有较强的韧性。

策略：单边中性，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：鲍威尔发言终落地，短期或将带动铜价上行

现货情况：据SMM讯，8月27当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于68,270元/吨-69,610元/吨，周中呈先扬后抑走势。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于180元/吨至200元/吨，周中波动幅度不大。上周铜价呈反弹走势，沪铜10合约由最低67,590元吨升至最高69,860元/吨，周五夜盘收69,680元/吨，周度涨2,090元/吨。

短期观点：从宏观来看，上周公布的美国制造业PMI不及预期，美国第二季度实际GDP及上周首次申领失业救济人数整体表现较好。备受市场关注的杰克逊霍尔会议召开，鲍威尔表示年内Taper可能是合适的，同时再次强调通胀是暂时的，并指出Taper并非加息信号。本次发言鲍威尔有意淡化Taper影响，被市场解读为“鸽派”信号，周五夜盘铜价应声上涨。

从基本面来看，铜精矿方面，上周TC指数再次上行，矿端利好及利空因素频传，重点关注智利的矿业特许权使用费法案，该法案已获众议院批准，目前正在参议院进行审议。如通过，将对智利铜的销售征收3%的特权使用费，将对智利铜精矿产量造成影响。废铜方面，受东南亚疫情的持续影响，7月废铜进口量环比下降。目前废铜对精铜无替代优势，一定程度上支撑了精铜的消费。进口方面，上周伦铜相对强势，带动进口比价持续有所下降，进口盈亏收窄。抛储方面，国储局公布第三次铜抛储量为3万吨，较上次持平。库存方面，LME库存注销仓单暴增至10万吨，SHFE周度库存延续去库状态。下游消费方面，据SMM讯，上周精通杆开工率连续三周呈增长，但在铜价周度持续反弹情况下，下游采购情绪目前偏谨慎。因此在目前低库存高升水背景下，消费相对有支撑，宏观方面的利多因素或将刺激铜价短期上行，但对上行空间持谨慎态度。

中长期观点：宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1.累库拐点

PTA：逸盛新材料供应回升，下游亦持续负反馈

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控。9月亚洲PX平衡表迎来首度进入累库阶段

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待PTA加工费进一步压缩。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间