Iron Ore: The production restriction policy has tightened, and iron ore has fallen sharply.

The policy of restricting crude steel production has been further deepened recently. Due to the strengthening of dual control of energy consumption, the Guangxi region imposed production restrictions on local steel companies, and some companies reduced their output by 20%. At the same time, the environmental protection inspection team is stationed in Sichuan. Local short-process steel mills have temporarily suspended production one after another, causing iron ore prices to continue to fall. In terms of futures, the main iron ore 01 contract fell all the way, closing at 808 points, down 42.5 points from the previous day, and the port spot price fluctuated and fell.

At present, the Ferrous complex is still dominated by policies, and the production restriction policy has been implemented one after another. The output of molten iron is steadily declining, and there is still room for decline in the future. With the seasonal improvement in demand for thread and hot-rolled coil and the tightening of crude steel production restriction policies, iron ore supply and demand have begun to undergo a significant reversal. The supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly in the short-term, but the expansion of the scope of production restriction will increase the pressure on iron ore in the future. The opportunity of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore when price hits high is recommended. In addition, the hedging arbitrage combination of initiating a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore is also recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Port inventory continued to decline.

On August 31, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,845 (-30) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,050 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1195 yuan/ton (-20); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 90,473 (+704) lots, ,the short position was 132,924 (+224) lots, and the net short position was 42,451 (-480) lots.

On August 31, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,705 (-45) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,685 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,675 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,640 (-5) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -98 (+13) yuan/ton.

As of August 27: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 219,592 (+8,250) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 188,780 (+2,400) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 51.67 (+0.11), cup lump 45.2 (0), latex 48 (+0.2), RSS3 55.13 (+0.01).

As of August 26, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.89% (-5.44%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.65 (-0.36%).

Opinion: The price of rubber continued to fluctuate within a narrow range yesterday. The prices of raw materials had basically followed the market fluctuations, but their performance had remained relatively strong recently, which had caused the recent decline in profits from processing overseas RSS3. The fundamentals have not changed much recently, and weak domestic supply and demand have made the market to be mixed with longs and shorts. The continued decline in port inventory has also given support below the spot price, but the supply and demand drive was weak. Overseas demand was weak, and there was no obvious hindrance to the release of supply, but the high year-on-year price of raw materials may be a factor to be concerned about. In the short term, domestic and overseas demand is weak and stable, and prices are more likely to follow changes on the supply side. Rubber prices are expected to remain range-bound.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API crude oil inventories fell, while gasoline inventories increased.

The Port of Fourchon in Louisiana, the United States, was damaged after Hurricane Ida passed the border, which would result in a slower-than-expected recovery of crude oil production off the U.S. Gulf. Because the port is a sea-land connection point for crude oil such as Mars, it will affect the production operations of offshore platforms. As a result, the Mars crude oil discount has risen sharply. But overall, the magnitude of refinery shutdowns caused by power outages is still greater than the interruption of U.S. Gulf oil production. Therefore, from the perspective of the total amount, the overall impact of the hurricane on the supply and demand of U.S. Gulf crude oil is that demand loss is greater, and it will cause a structural shortage of some oil species such as Mars and other U.S. Gulf acid oil. At present, some refineries have been seeking to import acid oil to make up for the shortfall. On the other hand, the arbitrage window for exports from the US Gulf to Asia was closed due to the suspension of production of US Gulf acid oil such as Mars. Therefore, from a structural point of view, the hurricane will be more bullish to Brent and to be relatively bearish to WTI.

Strategy: neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: The PMI of the manufacturing industry is lower than expected, and the inflation of industrial products is obviously suppressing domestic demand.

Spot: According to SMM, yesterday was the last trading day in August. The spot market transactions were slightly insipid, and the market price continued to stay above 70,000 yuan/ton, making downstream buying interest continued to be suppressed. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper initially quoted a premium of 190-200 yuan/ton for the next month contract, but there were few market transactions. Due to the demand for spot exchange at the end of the month, some holders quickly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 170-180 yuan/ton. However, there were still few inquirers in the market for buying and there was rarely a lot of buying interest in the market. It wasn't until after the second trading session that some of the sources with a quotation of a premium of 160 yuan/ton flowed out, and the market transactions picked up. High-Grade Copper also offered a premium of 220-230 yuan/ton in the morning session, but the market favor was limited. Subsequently, High-Grade Copper as a whole followed the price of Standard-Grade Copper and adjusted to a premium of 200 yuan/ton, but it was still difficult to see a large number of transactions. Hydro-Copper was difficult to find a large amount of supply. Under the guidance of a small amount of Norilsk and Mook copper quotations, the Hydro-Copper quotation reached a premium of 90-120 yuan/ton. Reluctantly downstream were more favoring unregistered brands in the market, resulting in few actual transactions.

Viewpoint: From a macro perspective, due to multiple factors such as the off-season of demand, domestic epidemics and floods, China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs both fell to 18-month lows in August. The monthly decline of new export orders has significantly expanded. At the same time, the decline in the new order index was greater than that of the new export orders. It can be seen that the situation of industrial product inflation suppressing domestic demand is still obvious. In foreign countries, the Chicago PMI data in August fell short of expectations and was the lowest since June. The US consumer confidence index in August fell to its lowest level since February 2021. The data shows that the current economic situation in the United States is not yet optimistic. From a fundamental point of view, interference factors at the mine end have revived. BHP Billiton's Cerro Colorado copper mine union in Chile said on Monday that its members voted to reject BHP Billiton's latest contract offer, paving the way for the strike. In terms of inventory, LME inventory has substantially destocked 1,250 tons, the highest since July 21, and SHFE has continued to destock. At the end of the month, market demand was insipid, and the Back structure of the 09-10 contract expanded, prompting traders to increase their efforts to sell goods. The spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Copper was lower than yesterday, and at the same time inhibited the transaction of imported copper. On the whole, the macroeconomic data is not as good as expected, and domestic industrial product inflation is obviously suppressing domestic demand. Unilaterally, we believe that the market will maintain a wide range of fluctuations and there are downside risks.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The port basis has strengthened.

Balance sheet outlook: Continue to accumulate inventory in September. Originally, October was the turning point for destocking, but under the assumption of Nanjing Chengzhi MTO's overhaul, the turning point for destocking may be postponed to November. Under the background of strong thermal coal and global natural gas, the Q4 expectation of the 01 contract is still strong.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks:

1. The cost support swing caused by the price fluctuation of raw thermal coal;

2. The postponement of the autumn inspection abroad;

3. Implementation of the MTO corporate overhaul plan.

铁矿：压产政策趋严，铁矿大幅下跌

近期粗钢压产政策进一步深化，广西地区因加强能耗双控，对当地钢铁企业实施限产，部分企业再压减20%的产量。同时，环保督察组进驻四川，当地短流程钢厂相继临时停产，使得铁矿价格继续下跌。期货方面，铁矿石主力01合约一路下挫，收盘于808点，环比跌42.5点，港口现货震荡下跌。

目前黑色行情依然由政策主导，压产政策陆续落实，铁水产量稳步下降，未来仍有下降空间。随着成材需求的季节性好转及粗钢压产政策趋严，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期铁矿供需暂未发生大幅恶化，但压产范围的扩大将增加后期铁矿的压力，推荐远月逢高做空机会，或是多材空矿的对冲套利组合，可超配成材。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多成材（01合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：港口库存延续下降

31号，RU主力收盘13845（-30）元/吨，混合胶报价12050元/吨（0），主力合约基差-1195元/吨（-20）；前二十主力多头持仓90473（+704），空头持仓132924（+224），净空持仓42451（-480）。

31号，NR主力收盘价10705（-45）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1685（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1675美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1640（-5）美元/吨。主力合约基差-98（+13）元/吨。

截至8月20日：交易所总库存219592（+8250），交易所仓单188780（+2400）。

原料：生胶片51.67（+0.11），杯胶45.2（0），胶水48（+0.2），烟片55.13（+0.01）。

截止8月19日，国内全钢胎开工率为55.89%（-5.44%），国内半钢胎开工率为57.65%(+0.36%）。

观点：昨天胶价延续窄幅波动。原料价格基本跟随盘面波动，但近期仍表现相对偏强，使得近期海外烟片等加工利润有所回落。昨天公布近期基本面变化不大，国内弱需求以及偏弱的供应使得价格多空显现，而港口库存持续下降也给予现货价格下方支撑，但供需驱动偏弱。海外需求偏弱，而供应并没有明显阻碍，但原料价格的同比偏高或是要关注的因素。短期海内外需求的弱稳，价格或更多跟随供应端变化。预计胶价区间震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API原油库存下降，汽油库存增加

美国路易斯安那州Fourchon港口在飓风Ida过境之后受到损坏，这会导致美湾海上原油生产的恢复低于预期，因为该港口是Mars等原油的海陆连接点，将会影响海上平台的生产作业，因此Mars原油的贴水大幅回升，但总体来看，由于停电带来的炼厂停产幅度依然大于美湾石油生产中断程度，因此从总量来看，飓风对于美湾的原油供需总体的影响是需求损失量更大，但会造成部分油种如Mars等美湾酸油的结构性短缺，目前部分炼厂已经在寻求进口酸油来弥补缺口，而另一方面由于Mars等美湾酸油的停产，之前美湾到亚洲的出口套利窗口关闭，因此从结构来看，飓风会更加利好布伦特，WTI则相对偏空。

策略：单边中性，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：制造业PMI不及预期，工业品通胀抑制内需情况明显

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日是8月最后一个交易日，现货市场成交略显清淡，外加盘面持续在70000元/吨上方运行，持续抑制下游买兴。早市平水铜对下月票始报于升水190—200元/吨后难闻市场交投，部分持货商月末换现需求下迅速调价至升水170-180元/吨欲出货，无奈市场买盘询价者依旧寥寥，市场难闻大量买兴，第二时段后部分升水160元/吨货源流出市场成交才有所回暖。好铜早市也一度报在升水220-230元/吨无奈市场青睐度有限，整体跟随平水铜调价至升水200元/吨依旧难见大量成交。湿法铜则难觅大量货源，在少量Norilsk以及Mook铜报价指引下报至升水90-120元/吨，无奈下游更加青睐于市场非注册品牌，实际成交寥寥。

观点：宏观方面，受需求淡季，国内疫情汛情等多重因素影响，中国8月官方制造业和非制造业PMI均降至18个月新低。新出口订单单月回落幅度明显扩大，同时新订单指数回落幅度大于新出口订单，可以看到工业品通胀抑制内需的情况仍然明显。国外方面，美国8月芝加哥PMI数据不及预期，为6月以来最低。美国8月份消费者信心指数跌至2021年2月以来的最低水平。数据表明美国目前经济状况尚不乐观。基本面看，矿端干扰因素再起，必和必拓旗下智利Cerro Colorado铜矿工会周一表示，其成员投票拒绝必和必拓的最新合同报价，为罢工铺平道路。库存方面，LME库存大幅去库1250吨，为7月21日来最高，SHFE持续去库。月末市场需求冷淡，09-10合约Back结构扩大，促使贸易商加大甩货力度，沪铜与华南通现货升贴水均较昨日下降，同时抑制进口铜成交。整体看来，宏观经济数据不及预期，国内工业品通胀抑制内需情况明显，单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得一度美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

甲醇：港口基差有所走强

平衡表展望：9月持续累库，原10月为去库拐点，南京诚志MTO检修兑现假设下，去库拐点推后至11月。在动力煤以及全球天然气偏强背景下，01合约Q4预期仍强。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，等待回调低位再做Q4去库预期。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：原料动力煤价格波动带来的成本支撑摆动，外盘秋检推后情况，MTO企业检修计划兑现情况。