Iron Ore: The production restriction policy has become stricter, and iron ore continues its downward trend.

The policy of restricting crude steel production has been further deepened recently. Guangxi province has strengthened the dual control of energy consumption and imposed production restrictions on local steel companies, and some companies have reduced their output by 20%. Environmental protection inspection teams stationed in Sichuan and Guangdong, and local short-process steel mills have temporarily suspended production one after another. At the same time, the environmental protection inspection team inspected in Shandong, and all steel plants strictly followed the production limit. According to feedback from steel mills, senior executives are not satisfied with the progress of the steel mill's production restriction. All provinces are required to complete the annual production limit target as far as possible before the end of November. In December, a centralized assessment will be conducted to check for omissions, which has caused iron ore prices to continue to fall. In terms of futures, the main iron ore 01 contract fell all the way, closing at 765 points, down 64.5 points from the previous day. The port spot fluctuated and fell, with a cumulative drop of 10-50 throughout the day.

At present, the Ferrous complex is still dominated by policies, and the production restriction policy has been implemented one after another. The output of molten iron is steadily declining, and there is still room for decline in the future. With the seasonal improvement in demand for thread and hot-rolled coil and the tightening of crude steel production restriction policies, iron ore supply and demand have begun to undergo a significant reversal. The supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly in the short-term, but the expansion of the scope of production restriction will increase the pressure on iron ore in the future. The opportunity of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore when price hits high is recommended. In addition, the hedging arbitrage combination of initiating a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore is also recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The supply and demand are weak, and the price of rubber may continue to be weak.

On September 1, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,845 (0) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,050 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1245 yuan/ton (-50); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 90,623 (+150) lots, ,the short position was 132,641 (-283) lots, and the net short position was 42,018 (-433) lots.

On September 1, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,715 (+10) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,685 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,675 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,635 (-5) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -140 (-42) yuan/ton.

As of August 27: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 219,592 (+8,250) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 188,780 (+2,400) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 51.67 (0), cup lump 44.8 (-0.4), latex 48.30 (+0.3), RSS3 55.13 (0).

As of August 26, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.89% (-5.44%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.65 (-0.36%).

Opinion: The price of rubber remained weak yesterday, and the price has fluctuated within a narrow range in the last two days. From a fundamental point of view, following the previous sharp drop, the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent. Raw material prices basically follow market fluctuations, and the price of raw materials in Thailand presented a mix of gains and losses yesterday. Raw material prices have continued to decline recently, but they are still at a relatively high level year-on-year. In addition, domestic port inventories continued to decline, giving support to rubber prices in the short term. Although inventories of the exchange are at a low level year-on-year, due to the peak domestic supply season, the demand for latex is lower than last year, which will lead to a month-on-month rebound in warehouse receipts. The downward pressure on the domestic and international economy has weakened demand, and the overall supply and demand drive has been weak. It is expected that rubber prices will remain weak.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: OPEC still sticks to its original plan to increase production.

Yesterday, the OPEC meeting continued to increase production according to the original plan, increasing crude oil production by 400,000 barrels per day each month. Previously, the market expected OPEC to postpone its production increase due to the recent epidemic and the drop in oil prices. But at present, OPEC believes that the impact of the epidemic on demand is relatively limited, and it has not yet reached the point where it needs to adjust its production increase plan. In addition, the United States also appealed to OPEC that it does not want excessive oil prices to push up inflation. Judging from the current balance sheet, according to OPEC's current pace of production increase, the third quarter is the period with the largest gap between supply and demand in the market. The supply and demand gap will narrow in the fourth quarter, and supply and demand will turn into a slight surplus next year. For the current balance sheet, the biggest variable on the supply side in the future will still come from the pace of the return of Iranian oil and the speed at which US crude oil production resumes.

Strategy: Unilaterally neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: Economic data was generally worse than expected, and copper prices fell temporarily under pressure.

Spot: According to SMM, yesterday's spot market transactions were still relatively insipid, and buyers and sellers remained divergent on prices. Standard-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/ton in the morning session. Holders wanted to maintain high prices, but there were very few inquiries for buying. In addition, yesterday was the third time that the State Reserve Bureau released reserves. Some downstream players participated in the reserve release auction, so it was difficult to see a large amount of buying in the market. It wasn't until some holders slightly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton that the transaction improved slightly. High-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of 190-210 yuan/ton under the guidance of the Peruvian and CCC-P quotations, and it was difficult to see the spread between it and Standard-Grade Copper. Only Guixi Copper maintained the price supporting sentiment because it is still under maintenance, but the market had limited buying power, resulting in few transactions. Hydro-Copper was still quoted at a premium of 80-120 yuan/ton under the guidance of a small amount of Norilsk, BL and other brands. When the overall supply of goods in the market was relatively scarce, both buyers and sellers are more cautious and maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

Viewpoint: The price of copper fell sharply in the day session yesterday, and the market showed that the bulls lightened their holding positions and left the market. At night, dragged down by the LME copper, the market opened lower and continued to be in a downturn. On the macro level, Premier Li Keqiang convened an executive meeting of the State Council. He called for cross-cyclical adjustments and the role of local government special bonds to drive the expansion of effective investment. The current progress of the issuance of special bonds is significantly lower than in previous years, and the post-financial characteristics are obvious. The number of U.S. ADP employment in August announced overnight was 374,000, which was significantly lower than expected, indicating a slowdown in the recovery of the labor market. A number of recent economic data fell short of expectations, and the current pace of economic recovery in the United States is under pressure. From a fundamental perspective, on the mining side, the Chilean Senate Mining Committee voted 3 to 2 to pass the much-watched mining tax bill, which will then enter the parliamentary debate stage. As the bill will result in a substantial increase in the actual tax rate, the industry has been warning that this will affect the country's mining investment. In terms of releasing reserves, in 2021, the third batch of national reserves of copper has been complete all batches of auctions, and the highest transaction prices in various regions are generally lower than the market price of the day by about 1300-1500 yuan/ton. The State Reserve Bureau will continue to carry out follow-up releases based on market supply and demand and price trends. In terms of inventory, LME destocked for three consecutive days, and SHFE continued to destock. At the beginning of the month, the spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai copper and South China copper rose slightly from yesterday, and the Back structure of the 09-10 contract expanded. However, affected by the release of reserves, both buyers and sellers maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude at the current prices. On the whole, under the instructions of the central government the day before yesterday, the copper price could hardly withstand the downward trend on the day of the release of reserves. The current domestic and international economic data show that the situation is not optimistic. Unilaterally, we expect that the market will maintain wide fluctuations and there are downside risks.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Processing fees are still weak, and the market will gradually usher in a slight inventory accumulation cycle in the future.

Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In September, the Asian PX balance sheet accumulated only a small amount of inventory.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Initiate a long position when the price hits low, PTA and PX processing fees have limited room for further reduction..

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：压产政策趋严，铁矿延续跌势

近期粗钢压产政策进一步深化，广西加强能耗双控，对当地钢铁企业实施限产，部分企业再压减20%的产量。环保督察组进驻四川、广东，当地短流程钢厂相继临时停产，同时环保督察组在山东巡回检查工作，各钢厂严格按照限产执行，据钢厂反馈高层对钢厂限产进度不够满意。要求企业11月底前各省份尽量完成全年限产目标，12月份会集中考核，查漏补缺，使得铁矿价格继续下跌。期货方面，铁矿石主力01合约一路下挫，收盘于765点，环比跌64.5点，港口现货震荡下跌，全天累计下跌10-50。

目前黑色行情依然由政策主导，压产政策陆续落实，铁水产量稳步下降，未来仍有下降空间。随着成材需求的季节性好转及粗钢压产政策趋严，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期铁矿供需暂未发生大幅恶化，但压产范围的扩大将增加后期铁矿的压力，推荐远月逢高做空机会，或是多材空矿的对冲套利组合，可超配成材。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多成材（01合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：供需偏弱，胶价或延续弱势

1号，RU主力收盘13845（0）元/吨，混合胶报价12050元/吨（0），主力合约基差-1245元/吨（-50）；前二十主力多头持仓90623（+150），空头持仓132641（-283），净空持仓42018（-433）。

1号，NR主力收盘价10715（+10）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1685（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1675美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1635（-5）美元/吨。主力合约基差-140（-42）元/吨。

截至8月20日：交易所总库存219592（+8250），交易所仓单188780（+2400）。

原料：生胶片51.67（0），杯胶44.8（-0.40），胶水48.30（+0.3），烟片55.13（0）。

截止8月19日，国内全钢胎开工率为55.89%（-5.44%），国内半钢胎开工率为57.65%(+0.36%）。

观点：昨天胶价维持偏弱走势，最近两天价格窄幅波动，基本面来看，随着前期的一波大跌之后，供需矛盾并不突出。原料价格基本跟随盘面波动，昨天泰国原料价格涨跌互现，近期原料价格持续下行，但同比仍处于区间偏高的位置。叠加国内港口库存持续下降，短期给予橡胶价格下方支撑。交易所库存尽管处于同比低位，但国内供应旺季，浓乳需求不及去年，将带来后期仓单环比回升或加速。国内外经济下行压力使得需求转弱，总体供需驱动偏弱。预计胶价将维持偏弱运行。

策略：中性

原油：欧佩克仍坚持原计划增产

昨日欧佩克会议仍旧按照原计划增产，逐月增加40万桶/日的原油产量，此前市场预期由于近期疫情以及油价下跌欧佩克可能推迟增产，但目前来看，欧佩克认为疫情对于需求的影响相对有限，尚未到需要调整增产计划的地步，此外，美国方面也对欧佩克喊话，不希望油价过高推升通胀，从当前的平衡表来看，按照欧佩克当前的增产节奏，三季度是市场供需缺口最大的时期，四季度供需缺口收窄，明年供需转为小幅过剩。对于当前的平衡表而言，未来供应端最大的变量仍旧来自伊朗石油回归的节奏以及美国原油复产的速度。

策略：单边中性，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：经济数据普遍差于预期 铜价暂时承压回落

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场成交依旧较为清淡，买卖双方对价格分歧依旧，早市平水铜始报于升水200元/吨，持货商欲挺价出售，但买盘询盘者寥寥，外加昨日是国储局第三次抛储日，部分下游参与到抛储竞拍中，市场难见大量买盘，部分持货商小幅调价至升水180-190元/吨后成交才略有好转。好铜则在秘鲁大板以及CCC-P报价的指引下整体报至升水190-210元/吨，和平水铜难见价差，只有贵溪铜依旧处于检修中维持挺价情绪，但市场买盘力量有限，成交寥寥。湿法铜则依旧在少量Norilsk，BL等品牌报价下报至升水80-120元/吨，市场整体货源较为稀缺的情况下，买卖双方都较为谨慎，维持谨慎观望态度。

观点：昨日日盘铜价下跌幅度较大，盘面表现多头减仓离场局面。夜盘受伦铜拖累低开并持续低迷，多头减仓情况明显。宏观方面，李克强总理主持召开国务院常务会议，做好跨周期调节。发挥地方政府专项债作用带动扩大有效投资。目前专项债发行进度显著低于往年，财政后置特征明显。夜间公布的美国8月ADP就业人数37.4万人，显著低于预期，显示就业市场复苏放缓。近期多项经济数据不及预期，美国当前经济复苏步伐承受压力。基本面看，矿端方面，智利参议院矿业委员会以3比2投票通过了备受关注的矿业开采税法案，后续将进入议会辩论阶段。由于该法案将造成实际税率大幅提升，行业一直在警告此举会影响对于该国的矿业投资。抛储方面，2021年第三批国家储备铜完成所有批次竞拍，各地最高成交价普遍低于当日市场价格1300-1500元/吨左右，国储局将根据市场供需和价格走势，继续开展后续投放工作。库存方面，LME连续三天去库，SHFE持续去库。月初市场贸易商氛围优势提升，沪铜与华南铜现货升贴水较昨日小幅上升，09-10合约Back结构扩大。但受抛储影响，在目前价格下买卖双方均维持谨慎观望态度。受国内市场需求限制，同时进口比价环比走弱，进口铜成交受抑制。整体看来，在前日中央指示下，抛储日铜价难抵下跌趋势，目前国内外经济数据表明形势尚不乐观，单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得一度美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：加工费仍偏弱，逐步迎来小幅累库周期

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控。9月亚洲PX平衡表仅微幅累库。

策略建议：（1）单边：逢低做多，PTA及PX加工费再压缩空间有限。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间