Iron Ore: Crude steel production continues to be restricted, and iron ore fluctuates at low levels.

The policy of restricting crude steel production has been further deepened recently. Guangxi province has strengthened the dual control of energy consumption and imposed production restrictions on local steel companies, and some companies have reduced their output by 20%. Environmental protection inspection teams stationed in Sichuan and Guangdong, and local short-process steel mills have temporarily suspended production one after another. At the same time, the environmental protection inspection team inspected in Shandong, and all steel plants strictly followed the production limit. According to feedback from steel mills, senior executives are not satisfied with the progress of the steel mill's production restriction. All provinces are required to complete the annual production limit target as far as possible before the end of November. In December, a centralized assessment will be conducted to check for omissions, which has caused iron ore prices to continue to fall. In terms of futures, the main iron ore 01 contract fluctuated throughout the day, closing at 773.5 points, down 4.5 points from the previous day. The port spot fluctuated at low levels.

At present, the Ferrous complex is still dominated by policies, and the production restriction policy has been implemented one after another. The output of molten iron is steadily declining, and there is still room for decline in the future. With the seasonal improvement in demand for thread and hot-rolled coil and the tightening of crude steel production restriction policies, iron ore supply and demand have begun to undergo a significant reversal. The supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly in the short-term, but the expansion of the scope of production restriction will increase the pressure on iron ore in the future. The opportunity of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore when price hits high is recommended. In addition, the hedging arbitrage combination of initiating a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore is also recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The tire operating rate continued to decline, and rubber prices continued to be weak.

On September 2, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,715 (-130) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,050 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1115 yuan/ton (+130); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 91,142 (+519) lots, ,the short position was 136,468 (+3,827) lots, and the net short position was 45,326 (+3,308) lots.

On September 2, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,610 (-105) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,675 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,665 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,635 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -49 (+91) yuan/ton.

As of August 27: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 219,592 (+8,250) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 188,780 (+2,400) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 51.75 (+0.08), cup lump 44.45 (-0.35), latex 48.50 (+0.2), RSS3 55.15 (+0.02).

As of August 26, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.89% (-5.44%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.65 (-0.36%).

Opinion: This week, the rubber futures price maintained a weak operation, but the overall volatility declined, mainly due to the easing of the weak macro atmosphere last week. However, due to the weak demand of rubber, the operating rate of tire factories has been affected by environmental protection and has continued to decline recently. There is little change on the supply side, and the release of domestic production in the peak season has brought about a recent rebound in inventories of the exchanges, but it is still in a low level year-on-year. The impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic still has an impact on the pace of domestic imports, resulting in a continuous decline in domestic port inventories. This may limit the downside of short-term prices, waiting for the expectation that the demand side improves from the previous month. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to remain range-bound.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Mars crude oil production equipment was damaged, affecting exports and local supply.

After recent inspections, Shell has confirmed that WD-143, a key shallow-water platform as the hub of the Mars system, was damaged during Hurricane Ida, causing the production of 250,000-300,000 barrels per day of intermediate-acid Martian mixed crude oil may be suspended for several weeks. The suspension of Mars crude oil production will significantly affect US crude oil exports and domestic supply. Recently, due to the decline of Mars's discount to WTI, the export arbitrage window to the Asia-Pacific has opened, and refineries in the Asia-Pacific have purchased Mars crude oil. However, after experiencing Hurricane Ida, refineries that previously intended to purchase Mars crude oil needed to purchase other alternative oils such as Oman and Ural crude oil. U.S. crude oil exports will be affected to a certain extent, and the refinery supply in Louisiana will also be greatly affected. The US Department of Energy has released 1.5 million barrels of crude oil to ExxonMobil's Baton Rouge refinery. Due to the obstruction of the Mississippi River, the Shell Norco, Valero St Charles, Marathon Garyville and Baton Rouge refineries are currently unable to use imported crude oil carried by tankers or barges. The supply interruption of Mars crude oil cannot be filled by imported crude oil for the time being. As the power plant resumes production in the future, it may be seen that the United States will release more strategic reserves of crude oil to the Louisiana refinery. The damage to the Mars crude oil production platform will benefit oil prices in the short term, and will also boost the premium for global sour crude oil.

Strategy: Unilaterally neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: In the wait-and-see mood, look forward to the release of non-agricultural data.

Spot: According to SMM news, in the spot market, yesterday's rebound in market prices from low levels caused the spread of the inter-month back structure to expand to around 200 yuan/ton. The quotations seemed to be flat, but the differentiation between brands had been magnified. Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/ton, and then slightly under pressure fell back to a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton. High-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of 200-220 yuan/ton, because the price was difficult to push down or up, there were few advantages in transactions. Most of the increase in the supply of imported copper comes from Low-Quality Copper and Hydro-Copper. Bulgarian and ISA, with certain cost-effective sources, actively implemented low-price promotions for downstream companies. Long-lost Hydro-Copper holders such as MV, MB, ESOX, etc., in order to grab customers to digest the inventory as soon as possible, adjusted their quotations from a premium of around 80 yuan/ton to less than 50 yuan/ton in the afternoon, which widened the spread with Standard-Grade Copper to above 120 yuan/ton.

Viewpoint: The copper price rebounded yesterday, and the market showed a situation that the short lightened their holding positions and then left the market. The overall market performed well during the night trading, and Shanghai Copper returned to its daily gains after opening slightly lower. On the macro front, the nightly announcement of the number of layoffs by American challenger companies in August and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week of August 28 both hit new lows, bringing positive sentiment. But according to Morgan Stanley, economic growth in the United States is expected to slow in the second half of the year. Market sentiment has improved relatively but the wait-and-see sentiment is still strong, and today's non-agricultural data has become the focus of market attention. In China, the Ministry of Commerce stated that it will carry out a series of consumption promotion activities under the premise of preventing and controlling the epidemic. This makes the market look forward to the upcoming peak consumption season of "Gold September and Silver October". From a fundamental perspective, on the mining side, Chile announced a new national mining blueprint the day before yesterday. It has formulated a future copper production target to reach 7 million tons in 2030 and 9 million tons in 2050, but at the same time there are certain challenges in achieving the target. In terms of consumption, the back structure of the 09-10 contract has broadened. Since the release of reserves just ended the day before yesterday, large downstream companies have a certain amount of inventory in their hands. In addition, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained, resulting in the Shanghai copper premiums and discounts being flat, and the South China copper premiums and discounts fell slightly. In terms of inventory, LME starts continuous destocking within a week, and SHFE continues to destock. In terms of imports, the import price ratio has slightly warmed, but due to the lack of significant improvement in downstream consumption, the transaction of imported copper is still suppressed. On the whole, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, waiting for the release of non-agricultural data. Unilaterally, we expect that the market will maintain wide fluctuations and there are downside risks.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Processing fees rebounded slightly, investors can pay attention to the implementation of subsequent maintenance.

Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In September, the Asian PX balance sheet accumulated only a small amount of inventory.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Initiate a long position when the price hits low, PTA and PX processing fees have limited room for further reduction..

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：粗钢压产延续，铁矿低位震荡

近期粗钢压产政策进一步深化，广西加强能耗双控，对当地钢铁企业实施限产，部分企业再压减20%的产量。环保督察组进驻四川、广东，当地短流程钢厂相继临时停产，同时据钢厂反馈高层对钢厂限产进度不够满意，要求企业11月底前各省份尽量完成全年限产目标，12月份会集中考核，查漏补缺，使得铁矿价格继续下跌。期货方面，铁矿石主力01合约全天震荡，收盘于773.5点，环比跌4.5点，港口现货弱势震荡。

目前黑色行情依然由政策主导，压产政策陆续落实，铁水产量稳步下降，未来仍有下降空间。随着成材需求的季节性好转及粗钢压产政策趋严，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期铁矿供需暂未发生大幅恶化，但压产范围的扩大将增加后期铁矿的压力，推荐远月逢高做空机会，或是多材空矿的对冲套利组合，可超配成材。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多成材（01合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：轮胎开工率继续下降，胶价延续弱势

2号，RU主力收盘13715（-130）元/吨，混合胶报价12050元/吨（0），主力合约基差-1115元/吨（+130）；前二十主力多头持仓91142（+519），空头持仓136468（+3827），净空持仓45326（+3308）。

2号，NR主力收盘价10610（-105）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1675（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1665美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1635（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-49（+91）元/吨。

截至8月20日：交易所总库存219592（+8250），交易所仓单188780（+2400）。

原料：生胶片51.75（+0.08），杯胶44.45（-0.35），胶水48.50（+0.2），烟片55.15（+0.02）。

截止8月19日，国内全钢胎开工率为55.89%（-5.44%），国内半钢胎开工率为57.65%(+0.36%）。

观点：本周橡胶期价维持偏弱运行，但总体波动下降，主要因上周偏弱的宏观氛围有所缓和，但橡胶因自身需求仍偏弱，近期轮胎厂开工率受环保影响，持续下滑。供应端变化不大，国内产量旺季释放，带来近期交易所库存回升，但同比仍处于偏低位置。东南亚疫情的影响对于国内进口节奏仍有影响，带来国内港口库存持续下降。或限制了短期价格的下行空间，等待需求端的环比改善预期。短期预计胶价区间震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：Mars原油生产设备受损，影响出口与本地供应

经过近日的检查，壳牌已确认，作为火星系统枢纽的一个关键浅水平台WD-143在艾达飓风期间遭受了破坏，导致 25-30 万桶/日 的中质酸性火星混合原油生产可能会停产数周，Mars原油的停产将会明显影响美国原油出口与本土供应，近期由于Mars对WTI贴水下滑，导致对亚太出口套利窗口开启，亚太的炼厂纷纷采购Mars原油，但在经历飓风Ida之后，此前意图采购Mars原油的炼厂需要采购其他替代油种如阿曼、乌拉尔原油等，美国原油出口量将会受到一定影响，同时路易斯安娜州的炼厂供应也受到较大冲击，美国能源部已经释放150万桶的原油给埃克森美孚的Baton Rouge 炼油厂，而由于密西西比河航道受阻，目前Shell Norco、Valero St Charles、Marathon Garyville 和 Baton Rouge 炼油厂目前无法使用油轮或驳船运送的进口原油，Mars原油的供应中断暂时无法通过进口原油来填补，随着未来电力恢复炼厂复产，可能看到美国会释放更多战略储备原油给路易斯安娜炼厂，Mars原油生产平台短期利多油价，同时也提振全球含硫原油贴水。

策略：单边中性，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：观望情绪下，期待非农数据出台

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场，昨日盘面的低位回升态势令隔月back结构价差同步扩大至200元/吨附近，报价看似持平，但品牌间的差异化有所放大。平水铜报价始于升水200元/吨小幅承压回落于升水180-190元/吨，长单货品好库拒绝降价，价格几乎没有空间，好铜集中于升水200-220元/吨，下压上抬均有困难，成交少有优势。进口铜货源增加大多来自于差铜及湿法铜，保加利亚及ISA之类存一定性价比的货源针对下游企业主动低价促销，久违的MV、MB、ESOX等湿法铜持货商为抢占客户尽快消化库存，自升水80元/吨左右至午间不足升水50元/吨，与平水铜价差拉大至120元/吨以上。

观点：昨日日盘铜价有所反弹，盘面表现空头减仓离场局面。夜盘整体市场表现较好，沪铜小幅低开后回归日盘涨势。宏观方面，夜间公布的美国8月挑战者企业裁员人数及8月28日当周初请失业金人数均创出新低，带来利好情绪。但根据摩根士丹表示，预计美国下半年经济增长将放缓。市场情绪相对好转但观望情绪仍较浓，今日非农数据成为市场关注焦点。国内方面，商务部表示将在做好疫情防控的前提下，开展一系列消费促进活动，市场对于即将迎来的金九银十消费旺季有所期待。基本面看，矿端方面，前日智利公布新的国家矿业蓝图，制定未来铜产量目标将在2030年达到700万吨，2050年达到900万吨，但同时目标的实现存在一定的挑战性。消费方面，09-10合约back结构走阔，由于前日抛储刚刚结束，大型下游手里存有一定库存，加持下游观望情绪犹存，沪铜升贴水持平，华南铜升贴水微降。库存方面，LME周内开启连续去库，SHFE持续去库。进口方面，进口比价小幅转暖，但受制于下游消费未见明显起色，进口铜成交仍受抑制。整体看来，市场观望情绪较浓，等待非农数据出台，单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得一度美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：加工费有所反弹，关注后续检修兑现情况

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控。9月亚洲PX平衡表仅微幅累库。

策略建议：（1）单边：逢低做多，PTA及PX加工费再压缩空间有限。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间