Iron Ore: Crude steel production continues to be restricted, and iron ore fluctuates at low levels.
The policy of restricting crude steel production has been further deepened recently. Guangxi province has strengthened the dual control of energy consumption and imposed production restrictions on local steel companies, and some companies have reduced their output by 20%. Environmental protection inspection teams stationed in Sichuan and Guangdong, and local short-process steel mills have temporarily suspended production one after another. At the same time, the environmental protection inspection team inspected in Shandong, and all steel plants strictly followed the production limit. According to feedback from steel mills, senior executives are not satisfied with the progress of the steel mill's production restriction. All provinces are required to complete the annual production limit target as far as possible before the end of November. In December, a centralized assessment will be conducted to check for omissions, which has caused iron ore prices to continue to fall. In terms of futures, the main iron ore 01 contract fluctuated throughout the day, closing at 773.5 points, down 4.5 points from the previous day. The port spot fluctuated at low levels.
At present, the Ferrous complex is still dominated by policies, and the production restriction policy has been implemented one after another. The output of molten iron is steadily declining, and there is still room for decline in the future. With the seasonal improvement in demand for thread and hot-rolled coil and the tightening of crude steel production restriction policies, iron ore supply and demand have begun to undergo a significant reversal. The supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly in the short-term, but the expansion of the scope of production restriction will increase the pressure on iron ore in the future. The opportunity of initiating a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore when price hits high is recommended. In addition, the hedging arbitrage combination of initiating a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore is also recommended.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option when price hits high
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;
2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;
3. Shipping data may change drastically;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
Rubber: The tire operating rate continued to decline, and rubber prices continued to be weak.
On September 2, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,715 (-130) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,050 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1115 yuan/ton (+130); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 91,142 (+519) lots, ,the short position was 136,468 (+3,827) lots, and the net short position was 45,326 (+3,308) lots.
On September 2, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,610 (-105) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,675 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,665 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,635 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -49 (+91) yuan/ton.
As of August 27: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 219,592 (+8,250) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 188,780 (+2,400) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 51.75 (+0.08), cup lump 44.45 (-0.35), latex 48.50 (+0.2), RSS3 55.15 (+0.02).
As of August 26, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.89% (-5.44%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 57.65 (-0.36%).
Opinion: This week, the rubber futures price maintained a weak operation, but the overall volatility declined, mainly due to the easing of the weak macro atmosphere last week. However, due to the weak demand of rubber, the operating rate of tire factories has been affected by environmental protection and has continued to decline recently. There is little change on the supply side, and the release of domestic production in the peak season has brought about a recent rebound in inventories of the exchanges, but it is still in a low level year-on-year. The impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic still has an impact on the pace of domestic imports, resulting in a continuous decline in domestic port inventories. This may limit the downside of short-term prices, waiting for the expectation that the demand side improves from the previous month. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to remain range-bound.
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: Mars crude oil production equipment was damaged, affecting exports and local supply.
After recent inspections, Shell has confirmed that WD-143, a key shallow-water platform as the hub of the Mars system, was damaged during Hurricane Ida, causing the production of 250,000-300,000 barrels per day of intermediate-acid Martian mixed crude oil may be suspended for several weeks. The suspension of Mars crude oil production will significantly affect US crude oil exports and domestic supply. Recently, due to the decline of Mars's discount to WTI, the export arbitrage window to the Asia-Pacific has opened, and refineries in the Asia-Pacific have purchased Mars crude oil. However, after experiencing Hurricane Ida, refineries that previously intended to purchase Mars crude oil needed to purchase other alternative oils such as Oman and Ural crude oil. U.S. crude oil exports will be affected to a certain extent, and the refinery supply in Louisiana will also be greatly affected. The US Department of Energy has released 1.5 million barrels of crude oil to ExxonMobil's Baton Rouge refinery. Due to the obstruction of the Mississippi River, the Shell Norco, Valero St Charles, Marathon Garyville and Baton Rouge refineries are currently unable to use imported crude oil carried by tankers or barges. The supply interruption of Mars crude oil cannot be filled by imported crude oil for the time being. As the power plant resumes production in the future, it may be seen that the United States will release more strategic reserves of crude oil to the Louisiana refinery. The damage to the Mars crude oil production platform will benefit oil prices in the short term, and will also boost the premium for global sour crude oil.
Strategy: Unilaterally neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads
Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.
Copper: In the wait-and-see mood, look forward to the release of non-agricultural data.
Spot: According to SMM news, in the spot market, yesterday's rebound in market prices from low levels caused the spread of the inter-month back structure to expand to around 200 yuan/ton. The quotations seemed to be flat, but the differentiation between brands had been magnified. Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/ton, and then slightly under pressure fell back to a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton. High-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of 200-220 yuan/ton, because the price was difficult to push down or up, there were few advantages in transactions. Most of the increase in the supply of imported copper comes from Low-Quality Copper and Hydro-Copper. Bulgarian and ISA, with certain cost-effective sources, actively implemented low-price promotions for downstream companies. Long-lost Hydro-Copper holders such as MV, MB, ESOX, etc., in order to grab customers to digest the inventory as soon as possible, adjusted their quotations from a premium of around 80 yuan/ton to less than 50 yuan/ton in the afternoon, which widened the spread with Standard-Grade Copper to above 120 yuan/ton.
Viewpoint: The copper price rebounded yesterday, and the market showed a situation that the short lightened their holding positions and then left the market. The overall market performed well during the night trading, and Shanghai Copper returned to its daily gains after opening slightly lower. On the macro front, the nightly announcement of the number of layoffs by American challenger companies in August and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week of August 28 both hit new lows, bringing positive sentiment. But according to Morgan Stanley, economic growth in the United States is expected to slow in the second half of the year. Market sentiment has improved relatively but the wait-and-see sentiment is still strong, and today's non-agricultural data has become the focus of market attention. In China, the Ministry of Commerce stated that it will carry out a series of consumption promotion activities under the premise of preventing and controlling the epidemic. This makes the market look forward to the upcoming peak consumption season of "Gold September and Silver October". From a fundamental perspective, on the mining side, Chile announced a new national mining blueprint the day before yesterday. It has formulated a future copper production target to reach 7 million tons in 2030 and 9 million tons in 2050, but at the same time there are certain challenges in achieving the target. In terms of consumption, the back structure of the 09-10 contract has broadened. Since the release of reserves just ended the day before yesterday, large downstream companies have a certain amount of inventory in their hands. In addition, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained, resulting in the Shanghai copper premiums and discounts being flat, and the South China copper premiums and discounts fell slightly. In terms of inventory, LME starts continuous destocking within a week, and SHFE continues to destock. In terms of imports, the import price ratio has slightly warmed, but due to the lack of significant improvement in downstream consumption, the transaction of imported copper is still suppressed. On the whole, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, waiting for the release of non-agricultural data. Unilaterally, we expect that the market will maintain wide fluctuations and there are downside risks.
On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: Processing fees rebounded slightly, investors can pay attention to the implementation of subsequent maintenance.
Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In September, the Asian PX balance sheet accumulated only a small amount of inventory.
(1) Unilateral: Initiate a long position when the price hits low, PTA and PX processing fees have limited room for further reduction..
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
经过近日的检查，壳牌已确认，作为火星系统枢纽的一个关键浅水平台WD-143在艾达飓风期间遭受了破坏，导致 25-30 万桶/日 的中质酸性火星混合原油生产可能会停产数周，Mars原油的停产将会明显影响美国原油出口与本土供应，近期由于Mars对WTI贴水下滑，导致对亚太出口套利窗口开启，亚太的炼厂纷纷采购Mars原油，但在经历飓风Ida之后，此前意图采购Mars原油的炼厂需要采购其他替代油种如阿曼、乌拉尔原油等，美国原油出口量将会受到一定影响，同时路易斯安娜州的炼厂供应也受到较大冲击，美国能源部已经释放150万桶的原油给埃克森美孚的Baton Rouge 炼油厂，而由于密西西比河航道受阻，目前Shell Norco、Valero St Charles、Marathon Garyville 和 Baton Rouge 炼油厂目前无法使用油轮或驳船运送的进口原油，Mars原油的供应中断暂时无法通过进口原油来填补，随着未来电力恢复炼厂复产，可能看到美国会释放更多战略储备原油给路易斯安娜炼厂，Mars原油生产平台短期利多油价，同时也提振全球含硫原油贴水。
策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧