Iron Ore: With the deepening of production restriction policies, iron ore continued to fall.
Since August, the national crude steel production limit policy has been implemented steadily, and the output of molten iron has declined significantly. At the same time, downstream steel consumption is in the off-season, coupled with national typhoons and heavy rains, especially the national epidemic that lasted more than a month, aggravated the weak performance of building materials consumption in this off-season, causing iron ore prices to fall sharply. On the spot, iron ore prices fell sharply. In just one month, the Platts Index fell 62% from $180.5 to $152.6, a cumulative drop of $27.9. In terms of futures, as of August 31, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 808 yuan/ton, a monthly drop of 114 yuan/ton.
On the supply side, the shipment of imported iron ore in August rebounded from the previous period. Among them, the global iron ore shipments averaged 31.32 million tons per month, an increase of more than 2 million tons month-on-month on average. Vale will continue to release production capacity steadily in the future, the supply in Australia is expected to increase significantly from the previous month, and the overall iron ore supply is expected to see a significant improvement from the previous month. The operating rate of domestic iron ore concentrates remained low due to the impact of safety production. Although the operating rate has rebounded slightly recently, it is difficult to cause too much disturbance to the overall domestic supply.
On the demand side, China's production restriction policy steadily advanced in August, which resulted in a significant drop in molten iron output, resulting in a nearly 9% decline in total iron ore demand that month. Considering that the production limit timeline will be completed in advance to the end of November, this will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. More critically, in the future, iron ore smelting will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase.
On the inventory side, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 800,000-900,000 tons per week, an increase of 2.85 million tons from the end of July. Steel mill inventories remained low, and mine inventories were basically flat. At present, iron ore supply increases and demand decreases, and port inventory continues to increase. With the further deepening of production restrictions in the future, the contradiction between iron ore supply and demand will continue to worsen. This may lead to a continuous accumulation of inventory in port inventories, which is expected to exceed 150 million tons by the end of the year.
From the current supply and demand situation and inventory situation analysis, the iron ore supply side is expected to recover in September, while the crude steel production limit will continue to advance steadily. With the completion of the production restriction timeline in advance to the end of November, domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink, thereby exacerbating the contradiction between iron ore supply and demand, and iron ore is still expected to fall sharply on the trend.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option when price hits high
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;
2. Shipping data may change drastically.
Rubber: Inventory is low, and there is still support below the price.
Regarding the speculation of the price changes of raw materials in September, seasonally, as the rainy season in July and August passes, September will usher in better weather, which is conducive to the further release of latex. The current raw material prices are still slightly higher year-on-year. The job opportunities and reduced income brought about by the current epidemic will prompt rubber farmers to have a strong willingness to delivery.
According to ANRPC data, before May, due to the impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic, the overall production release rate was slow, but the production release rate began to rebound significantly in June. After the rainy season from July to August, the output growth rate in September is expected to increase further.
Due to the arrival of the rubber delivery season at home and abroad and the end of the rainy season, it is expected that the supply will further rebound in September. Overseas demand due to the arrival of the seasonal snow tire stocking season, demand improved month-on-month. Domestic demand must pay attention to whether there is a bottoming policy on the macro end, otherwise it will maintain a weak operation. Due to the large capacity on the supply side, demand growth is expected to be slower than supply. The supply and demand pattern in September may still be loose, but in terms of rhythm, the Southeast Asian epidemic still has an impact on the pace of arrivals at ports. While there is seasonal stocking demand in the domestic downstream, it is expected that supply and demand may slightly improve. Prices may have rebound momentum at a low level in September, but the room for rebound is still limited.
Strategy: cautiously bullish
Risks: Inventories may rebound sharply; supply in production areas may increase sharply; demand may continue to weaken.
Crude oil: demand recovery enters the second half, focusing on the return of buying interest in China.
Key points of the report: The core logic of the crude oil market's rise in the first half of this year comes from the accelerated inventory consumption caused by supply constraints + demand recovery exceeding expectations. Supply constraints are on the one hand that OPEC’s cautious increase in production and the failure to lift Iran’s oil sanctions, on the other hand, US shale oil listed companies maintain strong capital expenditure discipline. The combination of the two has brought about a relatively slow recovery in global oil supply. From a demand perspective, the main products of gasoline and diesel have a good recovery momentum, but the bottleneck that really suppresses the sluggish operating rate of refineries comes from aviation kerosene. With the recovery of jet fuel consumption this year, this bottleneck has been eliminated, leading to a substantial increase in global refinery operating rates and a strong recovery in overall crude oil demand. The continuous enlargement of the global supply and demand gap has brought about the continuous destocking of inventories. At present, total global oil inventories are only 100 to 200 million barrels higher than before the outbreak, and European and American oil inventories have been reduced to below the 5-year average level. However, oil prices have encountered strong pressures between US$75 and US$80 per barrel, mainly from strong resistance from consumer countries such as China and India. Based on many macro policy considerations such as inflation and carbon emissions, China and India's regulation on the demand side has exceeded market expectations. These include restrictions on crude oil import quotas, verification of local refineries, restrictions on refined oil export quotas, and the release of crude oil strategic reserves. These policy factors have led to a very weak Asia-Pacific buying interest in the third quarter, and have largely suppressed the room for rising oil prices. In addition, the macro bearishness has also begun to appear. The approach of the Fed's Taper has led to a periodical strengthening of the dollar and has also suppressed the overall commodity price rise.
We believe that demand recovery began in the third quarter and entered the second half. The focus of market attention has shifted from the recovery of jet fuel consumption to Asia-Pacific demand, especially the return of China's crude oil buying interest. We believe that due to the gradual commissioning of large-scale refineries, rigid crude oil import demand will continue to increase. However, due to the issue of the pace of quota distribution, these demands cannot be released in the short term. For example, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Sheng Hong failed to obtain sufficient crude oil quotas in the first three batches, but with the issuance of the fourth batch of crude oil quotas (we expect around late September), China's crude oil buying and selling will resume. After the return, Chinese refineries will also switch from destocking to active restocking. Although the results of the government's inspection of local refineries will also be reflected in the current round of quota issuance. However, considering the commissioning of large refining and chemical projects, the overall number may still be higher than the same period last year. Therefore, we believe that this round of quota issuance is still worth looking forward to. On the other hand, the policy effects of the refined oil market are also worthy of attention. Due to the consumption tax policy, traders rush to import a large amount of mixed aromatic and light cycle oil in advance before the implementation of the policy, resulting in relatively abundant domestic oil blending resources. On the other hand, this year the Ministry of Commerce has significantly tightened its export quotas for refined oil products from major refineries. Last year, it was estimated to be 37 million tons, which is about 20~30% lower than in 2019. The superposition of the two policies led to a phased surplus of domestic refined oil products, rather than offsetting positive and negative products. However, with the digestion of hidden blending resources such as aromatic blends and light cycle oils, we expect that the surplus of domestic refined oil products will gradually ease. However, the problem of overcapacity caused by the commissioning of large refining and chemical projects still cannot be ignored. The new and old capacity of domestic refineries are eliminated, and the process of transformation and upgrading will be accelerated. In general, whether China's crude oil buying interest can return smoothly will be the focus and focus of demand recovery in the fourth quarter.
Strategy: neutral, investors can consider to initiate a long position of Brent when the price hits low, but the space is limited.
Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or the emergence of a black swan in the epidemic may cause demand to recover less than expected.
Copper: The Fed's interest rate meeting in September is coming soon, and for strategies in copper investment, the idea of selling at high levels when the price hits low is recommended.
Macro: Domestic margins may weaken; overseas continued to recover; global central bank monetary policy remains the focus of attention.
Fundamentals: The outlook for domestic infrastructure and real estate is relatively weak; supply is gradually increasing; overseas demand is gradually recovering, but there may be recurrences.
Core logic: At the macro level, the Fed’s interest rate decision in September is approaching, and the market’s expectations for the Fed’s taper have increased. But in August, the dollar rushed up sharply, which may have also released this expected impact to a certain extent. On the other hand, the Biden government's planning and implementation of new energy infrastructure may have an even more important impact on the future trend of copper prices.
On the supply side, the current TC price of imported mines has rebounded to a level close to US$60/ton. However, due to the global spread of delta mutant strains, shipping is still not smooth. Therefore, after mid-to-late August, the recovery rate of TC prices slowed down significantly. Domestically, as processing fees rebound and the price of sulfuric acid continues to soar, and the refinery maintenance has been basically completed between July and August, the supply in September may increase slightly when profits are relatively considerable.
On the demand side, in August, social electricity consumption data continued to grow. However, after the summer fades away, the level of electricity consumption may decline. In the automotive sector, although the sales of new energy vehicles hit a new high, the production of traditional vehicles is still greatly affected due to chip issues. The outlook for the real estate and infrastructure sectors is negative. Therefore, expectations of these unfavorable factors may gradually appear in September and the fourth quarter thereafter.
In terms of overseas demand, currently observing the LME inventory, we can find that its direction of change is obviously deviating from the domestic situation, showing that the delta mutant strain has a certain impact on overseas demand, and such an impact may still be difficult in a short period of time. eliminate.
In summary, in September, the supply side may gradually lean toward ample abundance, while the demand side outlook is not very optimistic. However, demand in the peak season, which was suppressed by high prices in the previous second quarter, may be stimulated again when prices fall behind. Therefore, in general, it is recommended to sell high and buy low for copper prices in September.
Unilateral operation: neutral (sell high and buy low), ranging from 65,000 yuan/ton to 70,500 yuan/ton
Arbitrage operation: suspended
Option strategy: sell Strangle
Risk points: Central banks' loose monetary decisions and fiscal policy expectations may change globally.
PTA: Yisheng new material supply returns, negative feedback of filament production reduction.
1. Zhejiang Petrochemical PX has negative expectations, but there are still other PX maintenance plans from September to October, and Asian PX is slightly accumulating the inventory.
(1) Fujia Dahua’s 1.4 million tons of PX will be overhauled for 30-45 days in October, and Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.25 million tons of PX will be overhauled for 2-3 weeks in late September. Asia PX inventory is expected to accumulate slightly from September to October, and PX processing fees are expected to fall, but the room for compression is limited. (2) According to Platts news, Zhejiang Petrochemical may obtain an additional 4.5 million tons of crude oil import quota in September for its new 20 million tons/year phase II project. It is expected that the previous low-load phase II PX may be increased. (3) The spread of oil adjustment has risen again, and the demand for oil adjustment has risen again.
2. The supply of PTA Yisheng's new materials has returned, and September ushered in a stage of inventory accumulation.
(1) Yisheng New Materials 3.6 million tons of which the second line of 1.2 million tons has been produced at 8.25, and another 1.2 million tons is also planned to start. The total load is increased to around 80%, and the supply of PTA is quickly returning. (2) In September-October, there are still many sets of equipment that have been overhauled and scheduled, such as Hengli 5#2.5 million tons, Yishengdahua 2.25 million tons, etc. The rate is quite controllable, and it is estimated that the PTA processing fee is 450 yuan/ton, which is a staged bottom.
3. The terminal continues negative feedback, and the filament reduces the negative.
(1) Terminal foreign trade and domestic sales orders are still relatively poor, reducing the enthusiasm for filament purchases, leading to rapid accumulation of filament stocks. The filament began to decline rapidly in mid-to-late August, suppressing PTA demand.
Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In September, the Asian PX balance sheet accumulated only a small amount of inventory.
(1) Unilateral: Initiate a long position when the price hits low, PTA and PX processing fees have limited room for further reduction..
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
供应端，8月份进口铁矿发运较前期有所回升，其中全球铁矿石月均发运总量 3132 万吨，月均环比增加200多万吨；后续Vale继续稳定释放产能，澳洲供给也有望环比显著提升，整体铁矿供应有望看到环比的明显改善。而国内铁精粉受安全生产影响，开工率维持低位，近期小幅回升，但难以对国内整体供给产生太大扰动。
宏观： 国内或将边际走弱 海外持续恢复之中 全球央行货币政策仍为关注重点
基本面：国内基建地产展望相对偏弱 供应则逐渐增加 海外需求逐渐恢复，但或有反复