Iron Ore: With the deepening of production restriction policies, iron ore continued to fall.

Since August, the national crude steel production limit policy has been implemented steadily, and the output of molten iron has declined significantly. At the same time, downstream steel consumption is in the off-season, coupled with national typhoons and heavy rains, especially the national epidemic that lasted more than a month, aggravated the weak performance of building materials consumption in this off-season, causing iron ore prices to fall sharply. On the spot, iron ore prices fell sharply. In just one month, the Platts Index fell 62% from $180.5 to $152.6, a cumulative drop of $27.9. In terms of futures, as of August 31, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 808 yuan/ton, a monthly drop of 114 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the shipment of imported iron ore in August rebounded from the previous period. Among them, the global iron ore shipments averaged 31.32 million tons per month, an increase of more than 2 million tons month-on-month on average. Vale will continue to release production capacity steadily in the future, the supply in Australia is expected to increase significantly from the previous month, and the overall iron ore supply is expected to see a significant improvement from the previous month. The operating rate of domestic iron ore concentrates remained low due to the impact of safety production. Although the operating rate has rebounded slightly recently, it is difficult to cause too much disturbance to the overall domestic supply.

On the demand side, China's production restriction policy steadily advanced in August, which resulted in a significant drop in molten iron output, resulting in a nearly 9% decline in total iron ore demand that month. Considering that the production limit timeline will be completed in advance to the end of November, this will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. More critically, in the future, iron ore smelting will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase.

On the inventory side, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 800,000-900,000 tons per week, an increase of 2.85 million tons from the end of July. Steel mill inventories remained low, and mine inventories were basically flat. At present, iron ore supply increases and demand decreases, and port inventory continues to increase. With the further deepening of production restrictions in the future, the contradiction between iron ore supply and demand will continue to worsen. This may lead to a continuous accumulation of inventory in port inventories, which is expected to exceed 150 million tons by the end of the year.

From the current supply and demand situation and inventory situation analysis, the iron ore supply side is expected to recover in September, while the crude steel production limit will continue to advance steadily. With the completion of the production restriction timeline in advance to the end of November, domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink, thereby exacerbating the contradiction between iron ore supply and demand, and iron ore is still expected to fall sharply on the trend.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may be not as good as expected;

2. Shipping data may change drastically.

Rubber: Inventory is low, and there is still support below the price.

Regarding the speculation of the price changes of raw materials in September, seasonally, as the rainy season in July and August passes, September will usher in better weather, which is conducive to the further release of latex. The current raw material prices are still slightly higher year-on-year. The job opportunities and reduced income brought about by the current epidemic will prompt rubber farmers to have a strong willingness to delivery.

According to ANRPC data, before May, due to the impact of the Southeast Asian epidemic, the overall production release rate was slow, but the production release rate began to rebound significantly in June. After the rainy season from July to August, the output growth rate in September is expected to increase further.

Due to the arrival of the rubber delivery season at home and abroad and the end of the rainy season, it is expected that the supply will further rebound in September. Overseas demand due to the arrival of the seasonal snow tire stocking season, demand improved month-on-month. Domestic demand must pay attention to whether there is a bottoming policy on the macro end, otherwise it will maintain a weak operation. Due to the large capacity on the supply side, demand growth is expected to be slower than supply. The supply and demand pattern in September may still be loose, but in terms of rhythm, the Southeast Asian epidemic still has an impact on the pace of arrivals at ports. While there is seasonal stocking demand in the domestic downstream, it is expected that supply and demand may slightly improve. Prices may have rebound momentum at a low level in September, but the room for rebound is still limited.

Strategy: cautiously bullish

Risks: Inventories may rebound sharply; supply in production areas may increase sharply; demand may continue to weaken.

Crude oil: demand recovery enters the second half, focusing on the return of buying interest in China.

Key points of the report: The core logic of the crude oil market's rise in the first half of this year comes from the accelerated inventory consumption caused by supply constraints + demand recovery exceeding expectations. Supply constraints are on the one hand that OPEC’s cautious increase in production and the failure to lift Iran’s oil sanctions, on the other hand, US shale oil listed companies maintain strong capital expenditure discipline. The combination of the two has brought about a relatively slow recovery in global oil supply. From a demand perspective, the main products of gasoline and diesel have a good recovery momentum, but the bottleneck that really suppresses the sluggish operating rate of refineries comes from aviation kerosene. With the recovery of jet fuel consumption this year, this bottleneck has been eliminated, leading to a substantial increase in global refinery operating rates and a strong recovery in overall crude oil demand. The continuous enlargement of the global supply and demand gap has brought about the continuous destocking of inventories. At present, total global oil inventories are only 100 to 200 million barrels higher than before the outbreak, and European and American oil inventories have been reduced to below the 5-year average level. However, oil prices have encountered strong pressures between US$75 and US$80 per barrel, mainly from strong resistance from consumer countries such as China and India. Based on many macro policy considerations such as inflation and carbon emissions, China and India's regulation on the demand side has exceeded market expectations. These include restrictions on crude oil import quotas, verification of local refineries, restrictions on refined oil export quotas, and the release of crude oil strategic reserves. These policy factors have led to a very weak Asia-Pacific buying interest in the third quarter, and have largely suppressed the room for rising oil prices. In addition, the macro bearishness has also begun to appear. The approach of the Fed's Taper has led to a periodical strengthening of the dollar and has also suppressed the overall commodity price rise.

We believe that demand recovery began in the third quarter and entered the second half. The focus of market attention has shifted from the recovery of jet fuel consumption to Asia-Pacific demand, especially the return of China's crude oil buying interest. We believe that due to the gradual commissioning of large-scale refineries, rigid crude oil import demand will continue to increase. However, due to the issue of the pace of quota distribution, these demands cannot be released in the short term. For example, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Sheng Hong failed to obtain sufficient crude oil quotas in the first three batches, but with the issuance of the fourth batch of crude oil quotas (we expect around late September), China's crude oil buying and selling will resume. After the return, Chinese refineries will also switch from destocking to active restocking. Although the results of the government's inspection of local refineries will also be reflected in the current round of quota issuance. However, considering the commissioning of large refining and chemical projects, the overall number may still be higher than the same period last year. Therefore, we believe that this round of quota issuance is still worth looking forward to. On the other hand, the policy effects of the refined oil market are also worthy of attention. Due to the consumption tax policy, traders rush to import a large amount of mixed aromatic and light cycle oil in advance before the implementation of the policy, resulting in relatively abundant domestic oil blending resources. On the other hand, this year the Ministry of Commerce has significantly tightened its export quotas for refined oil products from major refineries. Last year, it was estimated to be 37 million tons, which is about 20~30% lower than in 2019. The superposition of the two policies led to a phased surplus of domestic refined oil products, rather than offsetting positive and negative products. However, with the digestion of hidden blending resources such as aromatic blends and light cycle oils, we expect that the surplus of domestic refined oil products will gradually ease. However, the problem of overcapacity caused by the commissioning of large refining and chemical projects still cannot be ignored. The new and old capacity of domestic refineries are eliminated, and the process of transformation and upgrading will be accelerated. In general, whether China's crude oil buying interest can return smoothly will be the focus and focus of demand recovery in the fourth quarter.

Strategy: neutral, investors can consider to initiate a long position of Brent when the price hits low, but the space is limited.

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or the emergence of a black swan in the epidemic may cause demand to recover less than expected.

Copper: The Fed's interest rate meeting in September is coming soon, and for strategies in copper investment, the idea of selling at high levels when the price hits low is recommended.

Macro: Domestic margins may weaken; overseas continued to recover; global central bank monetary policy remains the focus of attention.

Fundamentals: The outlook for domestic infrastructure and real estate is relatively weak; supply is gradually increasing; overseas demand is gradually recovering, but there may be recurrences.

Core logic: At the macro level, the Fed’s interest rate decision in September is approaching, and the market’s expectations for the Fed’s taper have increased. But in August, the dollar rushed up sharply, which may have also released this expected impact to a certain extent. On the other hand, the Biden government's planning and implementation of new energy infrastructure may have an even more important impact on the future trend of copper prices.

On the supply side, the current TC price of imported mines has rebounded to a level close to US$60/ton. However, due to the global spread of delta mutant strains, shipping is still not smooth. Therefore, after mid-to-late August, the recovery rate of TC prices slowed down significantly. Domestically, as processing fees rebound and the price of sulfuric acid continues to soar, and the refinery maintenance has been basically completed between July and August, the supply in September may increase slightly when profits are relatively considerable.

On the demand side, in August, social electricity consumption data continued to grow. However, after the summer fades away, the level of electricity consumption may decline. In the automotive sector, although the sales of new energy vehicles hit a new high, the production of traditional vehicles is still greatly affected due to chip issues. The outlook for the real estate and infrastructure sectors is negative. Therefore, expectations of these unfavorable factors may gradually appear in September and the fourth quarter thereafter.

In terms of overseas demand, currently observing the LME inventory, we can find that its direction of change is obviously deviating from the domestic situation, showing that the delta mutant strain has a certain impact on overseas demand, and such an impact may still be difficult in a short period of time. eliminate.

In summary, in September, the supply side may gradually lean toward ample abundance, while the demand side outlook is not very optimistic. However, demand in the peak season, which was suppressed by high prices in the previous second quarter, may be stimulated again when prices fall behind. Therefore, in general, it is recommended to sell high and buy low for copper prices in September.

Operational recommendations:

Unilateral operation: neutral (sell high and buy low), ranging from 65,000 yuan/ton to 70,500 yuan/ton

Arbitrage operation: suspended

Option strategy: sell Strangle

Risk points: Central banks' loose monetary decisions and fiscal policy expectations may change globally.

PTA: Yisheng new material supply returns, negative feedback of filament production reduction.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical PX has negative expectations, but there are still other PX maintenance plans from September to October, and Asian PX is slightly accumulating the inventory.

(1) Fujia Dahua’s 1.4 million tons of PX will be overhauled for 30-45 days in October, and Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.25 million tons of PX will be overhauled for 2-3 weeks in late September. Asia PX inventory is expected to accumulate slightly from September to October, and PX processing fees are expected to fall, but the room for compression is limited. (2) According to Platts news, Zhejiang Petrochemical may obtain an additional 4.5 million tons of crude oil import quota in September for its new 20 million tons/year phase II project. It is expected that the previous low-load phase II PX may be increased. (3) The spread of oil adjustment has risen again, and the demand for oil adjustment has risen again.

2. The supply of PTA Yisheng's new materials has returned, and September ushered in a stage of inventory accumulation.

(1) Yisheng New Materials 3.6 million tons of which the second line of 1.2 million tons has been produced at 8.25, and another 1.2 million tons is also planned to start. The total load is increased to around 80%, and the supply of PTA is quickly returning. (2) In September-October, there are still many sets of equipment that have been overhauled and scheduled, such as Hengli 5#2.5 million tons, Yishengdahua 2.25 million tons, etc. The rate is quite controllable, and it is estimated that the PTA processing fee is 450 yuan/ton, which is a staged bottom.

3. The terminal continues negative feedback, and the filament reduces the negative.

(1) Terminal foreign trade and domestic sales orders are still relatively poor, reducing the enthusiasm for filament purchases, leading to rapid accumulation of filament stocks. The filament began to decline rapidly in mid-to-late August, suppressing PTA demand.

Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In September, the Asian PX balance sheet accumulated only a small amount of inventory.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Initiate a long position when the price hits low, PTA and PX processing fees have limited room for further reduction..

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：压产政策深化，铁矿持续下跌

8月份以来，全国粗钢压产政策稳步实施，铁水产量出现明显下降，同时下游钢材消费正值淡季，加之全国的台风和暴雨，尤其是持续一个多月的全国疫情，加剧了这个淡季建材的消费弱势表现，使得铁矿价格大幅下跌。现货方面，铁矿价格大幅下挫，仅一个月时间，普氏指数62%从$180.5下跌至$152.6，累计下跌$27.9。期货方面，截至8月31日，铁矿01合约收808元/吨，月跌幅达114元/吨。

供应端，8月份进口铁矿发运较前期有所回升，其中全球铁矿石月均发运总量 3132 万吨，月均环比增加200多万吨；后续Vale继续稳定释放产能，澳洲供给也有望环比显著提升，整体铁矿供应有望看到环比的明显改善。而国内铁精粉受安全生产影响，开工率维持低位，近期小幅回升，但难以对国内整体供给产生太大扰动。

需求端，8月份中国压产政策稳步推进，导致铁水产量明显下降，带来当月铁矿总需求接近9%的下滑，考虑到压产时间线将提前至11月底完成，由此必然造成国内铁矿消费的进一步萎缩。更为关键的是后期钢铁冶炼仍将受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。

库存端，进口铁矿港口库存以每周80-90万吨的幅度增加，较7月底上升285万吨，钢厂库存维持低位，矿山库存基本持平。目前铁矿供增需减，港口库存持续增加，后期压产的进一步深化，铁矿供需矛盾仍将继续恶化，港口库存将呈连续累库态势，预计年底将超过1.5亿吨。

从目前的供需情况、库存情况分析，9月份铁矿供给端有望恢复，而粗钢压产仍将稳步推进，随着压产时间线提前至11月底完成，国内铁矿消费将进一步萎缩，从而加剧铁矿供需矛盾，趋势上铁矿仍有望大幅下行。

策略：

单边：中期看空

套利：无

期现：多成材空铁矿

期权：无

跨品种：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，发运数据大幅降低等。

橡胶：库存低位，价格下方仍有支撑

对于9月原料价格变化的推测，季节性来看，随着7、8月雨季过去之后，9月将迎来较好的天气，有利于胶水的进一步放量。而当下的原料价格仍处于同比略偏高的位置，当下疫情所带来的工作机会以及收入减少都将促使胶农有较强的割胶意愿。

据ANRPC数据，5月之前，因为东南亚疫情影响，整体产量释放速度缓慢，但6月开始产量释放速度明显回升，经历7-8月的雨季之后，预计9月份的产量增速将进一步提升。

因海内外割胶旺季的到来，以及雨季的结束，预计9月供应将进一步回升，而海外需求因季节性雪地胎备货旺季到来，需求环比改善，国内需求则须关注宏观端是否有托底政策出来，否则将维持偏弱运行。因供应端产能较大，预计需求增速不及供应。9月供需格局或仍宽松，但节奏来看，东南亚疫情对于到港节奏仍有影响，而国内下游有季节性的备货需求，预计供需或有小幅改善，9月价格或在低位有反弹动力，但反弹空间仍有限。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：库存大幅回升，产区供应量大增，需求继续示弱。

原油：需求复苏进入下半场，关注中国买兴回归

报告要点：今年上半年原油市场的上涨核心逻辑来自供给约束+需求复苏超预期所叠加带来的库存加速去化。供给约束一方面是欧佩克谨慎增产以及伊朗石油制裁未能解除，另一方面美国页岩油上市公司保持较强的资本开支纪律，两者叠加带来全球石油供给复苏相对缓慢。需求角度来看，汽油与柴油主力成品油品种的复苏势头良好，但真正压制炼厂开工率低迷的瓶颈来自航空煤油，而随着今年航煤消费的复苏，这一瓶颈得到消除，带来全球炼厂开工率大幅提升，从而带动了整体原油需求强劲复苏。全球供需缺口持续放大带来库存持续去化，目前全球石油总库存仅比疫情爆发前高出1至2亿桶，欧美石油库存已经去化至5年均值水平以下。但油价在75至80美元/桶遇到了较强的压力，主要来自中国、印度等消费国的强烈抵抗，基于通胀、碳排放等诸多宏观政策上的考量，中印对于需求端的调控超出市场预期，其中包括限制原油进口配额、对地方炼厂的核查、限制成品油出口配额以及释放原油战略储备，这些政策性因素导致三季度开始亚太买兴非常疲软，并很大程度上压制了油价上涨空间，此外，宏观上的利空也开始显现，美联储Taper临近导致美元阶段性走强也抑制了整体大宗商品价格涨势。

我们认为三季度开始需求复苏进入到下半场，市场关注的焦点从航煤消费复苏转移至亚太需求尤其中国原油买兴的回归，我们认为由于大炼化的逐步投产，刚性的原油进口需求依然是持续放大的，但由于配额发放节奏的问题，这些需求在短期内不能得到释放，如浙石化、盛虹均未能在前三批中拿到足量的原油配额，但随着第四批原油配额的下发（我们预计在9月下旬左右），中国原油买兴将会再度回归，中国炼厂也将从去库转为主动补库存。虽然政府对地方炼厂的核查结果也会体现在本轮配额下发情况当中，但考虑到大炼化项目投产，整体数量或仍要高于去年同期，因此我们认为本轮的配额下发依然是可以值得期待的。另一方面，成品油市场的政策效果也值得关注，由于消费税政策导致贸易商赶在政策实施前提前进口了大量混芳与轻循环油，导致国内调油资源依然相对充裕，而另一方面今年商务部对主营炼厂成品油出口配额显著收紧，去年预计在3700万吨，相比2019年大约下降了约20~30%，两个政策叠加后导致国内成品油阶段性过剩，而非是正负抵消，但随着混芳与轻循环油这些隐性调油资源的消化，我们预计国内成品油过剩将会逐步缓解，但大炼化项目投产所带来的产能过剩问题仍不容忽视，国内炼厂产能新旧淘汰，转型升级的进程将会提速。总体而言，中国原油买兴能否顺利回归将会是四季度需求复苏的重点和焦点。

策略：中性，布油可考虑低位多配但空间有限

风险：伊核协议快速达成或疫情出现黑天鹅导致需求复苏不及预期

铜：9月Fed议息会议在即 铜品种以高抛低吸思路对待

宏观： 国内或将边际走弱 海外持续恢复之中 全球央行货币政策仍为关注重点

基本面：国内基建地产展望相对偏弱 供应则逐渐增加 海外需求逐渐恢复，但或有反复

核心逻辑：宏观层面，目前9月美联储利率决议临近，市场对于美联储taper的预期加大，但8月间美元一度大幅冲高或许也在一定程度上释放了此种预期的影响，反观拜登政府对于新能源基建之规划以及落实对于铜价未来走势的影响或将更为重要。

供应端，目前进口矿TC价格已经回升至接近60美元/吨的水平，不过由于delta变异毒株在全球范围内蔓延的影响，目前海运仍然不甚畅通，因此在8月中下旬后，TC价格的回升速率明显放缓。就国内而言，随着加工费的反弹以及硫酸价格持续飙涨，叠加7-8月间炼厂检修已经基本完成，而在利润相对可观的情况下，9月供应或将小幅增加。

需求端，8月间，社会用电数据持续增长，但在夏季逐渐远去后，用电水平或将出现回落。而在汽车板块，虽然新能源汽车销量再创新高，不过由于芯片问题，使得传统汽车的生产仍受到较大影响，而地产以及基建板块的展望又偏向负面，故这些不利因素的预期或在9月以及此后的4季度中逐渐显现。

海外需求而言，目前观察LME库存可以发现，其变动方向与国内呈现明显背离态势，显示出delta变异毒株对于海外需求却是造成了一定的影响，并且这样的影响在短时内或仍难以消除。

综上所述，9月供应端或将逐渐偏向宽裕，而需求端的展望则并不十分乐观，不过由于此前2季度因为价格高企而被抑制的旺季需求在价格回落后也或将被再度激发，因此总体而言，9月对于铜价而言建议以高抛低吸为主。

操作建议：

单边操作：中性（高抛低吸） 区间在65,000元/吨至70,500元/吨

套利操作：暂缓 期权策略：卖出宽跨

风险点：全球范围内央行宽松货币以及财政政策预期出现改变

PTA:逸盛新材料供应回归，长丝减产负反馈

一、浙石化PX有提负预期，但9-10月仍有其他PX检修计划，亚洲PX小幅累库预期

（1）福佳大化140万吨PX10月有计划检修30-45天，恒力石化225万吨PX计划9月下旬检修2-3周。亚洲PX9-10月小幅累库预期，PX加工费预期回落，但压缩空间有限。（2）据普氏消息，浙石化可能在9月份获得额外的450万吨原油进口配额，用于其新的2000万吨/年二期项目，预期此前低负荷的二期PX有提负可能。（3）调油价差重新上抬，调油需求重新上调。

二、PTA逸盛新材料供应回归，9月迎来个累库阶段

（1）逸盛新材料360万吨其中第二条线120万吨已8.25已出品，另外一条120万吨亦有启动计划，总负荷提升至8成附近，PTA供应快速回归。（2）9-10月仍有多套此前检修传闻及检修计划的装置未兑现，如恒力5#250万吨、逸盛大化225万吨等，若检修兑现，则9-10月累库速率相当可控，预计PTA加工费在450元/吨是阶段性底部。

三、终端持续负反馈，长丝降负

（1）终端外贸及内销订单仍相对较差，减少对长丝采购积极性，导致长丝库存快速累积， 8月中下旬开始长丝开始快速降负，抑制PTA需求。

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控。9月亚洲PX平衡表延续小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多，PTA及PX加工费再压缩空间有限。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间