Iron Ore: Under strong policy pressure, the weakening trend is difficult to change.

Yesterday, the open interest of the iron ore 2201 contract shrank, while its trading volume rose, and it closed at 747 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton, or 0.07%. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 977 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; SSF reported 663 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the spread between high and low-grade products continued to shrink to 314 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the port had a total of 652,000 tons of transactions, and the transaction data remained weak.

In September, Shandong's leading building materials steel plant planned to produce 1.49 million tons, a decrease of about 250,000 tons from August. On September 8, a 1,350 cubic meter blast furnace in Shandong Xinhua Special Steel was shut down. The preliminary plan was to stop production for 2 months for maintenance, which is expected to affect the output of 3000 tons/day. On September 11, Bao steel Mei steel 2#1280 cubic blast furnace was overhauled until the end of the year, affecting an average daily output of about 3000 tons/day. Starting from September 15th, Danyang Longjiang Steel plans to suspend production for one month for maintenance, which is expected to affect the output of 150,000 tons.

On the whole, starting in September, the national crude steel production limit reorganization has accelerated. Steel mills across China are frequently directly or indirectly impacted by various policy events such as limited crude steel production, two-high project governance, dual energy consumption control, environmental protection inspections, and sports events. Blast furnaces and electric furnaces have been shut down and overhauled significantly, and sintering machines have been planned to stop production from time to time. With the overall loose supply of iron ore, the demand side is expected to further decline. Recently, due to the obvious shortage of coke, another raw material for the production of molten iron, there may be expectations that blast furnace production will be forced to stop. If this happens, it will further reduce domestic demand for iron ore. We maintain our view of initiating a short position when the price hits high unchanged.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: initiate a short position when the price hits high; tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Inventory replenishment for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The supply and demand are weak, and the price of rubber fell sharply.

On September 8, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,315 (-405) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -865 yuan/ton (+230); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 98,266 (+7,990) lots, ,the short position was 141,017 (+4,221) lots, and the net short position was 42,751 (-3,769) lots.

On September 8, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,775 (-65) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,655 (-40) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,645 (-55) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (-30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -30 (+194) yuan/ton.

As of September 3: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 225,354 (+5,762) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 192,480 (+3,700) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 49.6 (-0.95), cup lump 44.45 (-0.55), latex 47.30 (-1), RSS3 51.49 (-1.26).

As of September 2, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 50.08% (-5.81%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 54.52 (-3.13%).

Opinion: The price of rubber continued to fall yesterday, and the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed significantly. There was no obvious news to drive the market during the intraday trading, which was mainly caused by weak supply and demand combined with broken technical points. With the decrease of rain, the release of raw materials during peak seasons increases. Recently, the price of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas has continued to fall, and the price has been in the middle level of recent years. The increase in domestic raw materials has brought about a recent rebound in stocks on exchanges. The overall supply side shows an increasing momentum, but due to the hindrance of the pace of arrivals, the pressure reflected on the domestic port inventory is not large. Domestic downstream demand is weak, but due to the seasonal peak season, the overall weakness is mainly stable. In the short-term, prices are expected to be weak and volatile.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API crude oil and refined oil inventories fell sharply.

Yesterday API released inventory data, this data reflects the impact of the hurricane for the first time. Judging from the inventory data itself, both crude oil and refined oil inventories have fallen sharply. However, crude oil inventories fell below expectations by about 1 million barrels per day, while gasoline inventories fell far more than expected, and distillate inventories fell below expectations. It can be seen that the impact of this hurricane on the supply of refined oil is more significant, and the refined oil gap caused by the shutdown of the Louisiana refinery can only be supplemented by increasing production at the Texas refinery or importing from European refineries. At present, the profits of European refineries are performing well. In addition, in terms of crude oil, the discounts of major oil types such as LLS and Mars in Louisiana have reached a new high, reflecting that the impact of Hurricane Ida on actual supply is still relatively high. At present, the supply of nearly 1.4 million barrels per day in the Gulf of Mexico has not been restored. This is the longest time a hurricane has affected the supply side in recent years.

Strategy: Unilaterally neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: Many institutions lowered their expectations for the US economy.

Spot: According to SMM news, the spot market's premiums and discounts have stabilized after experiencing the sharp drop in the previous day. After the market price dropped slightly, the buying interest in the downstream picked up slightly, which to a certain extent supported the premium and discount to stop falling and stabilize. Standard-Grade Copper started to report a premium of 30-40 yuan/ton in the morning session, but there were still few inquirers in the market. Some holders quickly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 10-20 yuan/ton, but it was still difficult to see a lot of buying interest in the market. The supply of High-Grade Copper was relatively scarce. High-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/ton in the morning session, and the holders were reluctant to sell and wanted to support such price. However, under the drag of Standard-Grade Copper, the overall price of High-Grade Copper finally reached 40-60 yuan/ton. However, the buying interest in the market was limited, resulting in few large transactions in the market. Hydro-Copper was quoted at a discount of 60-40 yuan/ton under the guidance of ESOX and other brands.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Entering the inventory accumulation cycle, being allocated by initiating short positions under the background of no hype.

Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In September, the Asian PX balance sheet accumulated only a small amount of inventory.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Initiate a long position when the price hits low. Under the background of rising coal chemical industry, PTA has nothing to do with coal; and under the background of short-term inventory accumulation cycle, it is hedged by funds and was allocated by initiating short positions, therefore PTA valuation has declined.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：政策强压下，弱势终难改

昨日铁矿石2201合约缩量增仓震荡，收于747元/吨，涨0.5元/吨，涨幅0.07%。青岛港PB报977元/吨，跌20元/吨，超特报663元/吨，跌5元/吨，高低品价差继续走缩至314元/吨。昨日港口累计成交65.2万吨，成交数据弱势不减。

9月山东主导建材钢厂计划产量149万吨，较8月份减少约25万吨。9月8日，山东鑫华特钢一座1350立方米高炉休风停炉，初步计划停产检修2个月，预计影响产量0.3万吨/天。9月11日宝钢梅钢2#1280立方高炉，检修到年底，日均影响产量约0.3万吨/天。9月15日起，丹阳龙江钢铁计划全厂停产检修1个月，预计影响产量15万吨。

整体来看，9月份开始，全国粗钢压产重整旗鼓节奏加快，全国各地钢厂频频受到粗钢压产、两高项目治理、能耗双控、环保督察及体育赛事等多种政策事件叠加、密集的直接或间接冲击，高炉、电炉停限产及检修明显增多，烧结机也不定期的规划停产，在铁矿整体供应偏宽松的格局下，需求端有望再下一层台阶。近期，由于铁水的另一个生产原料焦炭明显紧缺，或存在逼停高炉生产的预期，若这种情况发生，将进一步降低铁矿石的国内需求，维持逢高做空的观点不变。

策略：

单边：逢高做空，中期看空

跨品种：多01材空01矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，中秋国庆补库情况，铁矿发运，疫情加重等

橡胶：供需偏弱，胶价大幅回落

8号，RU主力收盘13315（-405）元/吨，混合胶报价11900元/吨（-150），主力合约基差-865元/吨（+230）；前二十主力多头持仓98266（+7990），空头持仓141017（+4221），净空持仓42751（-3769）。

8号，NR主力收盘价10775（-65）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1655（-40）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1645美元/吨（-55），印尼标胶1605（-30）美元/吨。主力合约基差-30（+194）元/吨。

截至9月3日：交易所总库存225354（+5762），交易所仓单192480（+3700）。

原料：生胶片49.6（-0.95），杯胶44.45（-0.55），胶水47.30（-1），烟片51.49（-1.26）。

截止9月2日，国内全钢胎开工率为50.08%（-5.81%），国内半钢胎开工率为54.52%(-3.13%）。

观点：昨天胶价继续下挫，期现价差明显缩窄。盘中并无明显消息带动，主要是供需偏弱叠加技术点位破位导致的。随着雨水的减少，旺季原料释放增加，近期泰国主产区原料价格持续回落，价格处于近几年的中间位置。国内原料增加则带来近期交易所库存的回升。供应端总体呈现增加势头，但因到港节奏受阻，反映在国内港口库存上的压力并不大。国内下游需求偏弱，但因步入季节性旺季，总体弱稳为主，近期国内指标胶的进入也使得现货价格承压。短期预计价格弱势震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API原油与成品油库存大幅下降

昨日API公布库存数据，本次数据首次体现飓风的影响，从库存数据本身来看，原油与成品油库存均大幅下滑，但原油库存低于预期降幅约100万桶/日，而汽油库存降幅远超预期，馏分油库存降幅低于预期，可以看出本次飓风对于成品油供应的冲击更为显著，路易斯安娜州炼厂的停产导致的成品油缺口只能通过德州炼厂增产或者欧洲炼厂进口的方式来补充，目前欧洲炼厂的炼厂利润表现良好，此外，原油方面，路易斯安娜州相关的油种如LLS、Mars等主力油种的贴水再创新高，体现了飓风艾达对于实际供应的冲击依然较高，目前墨西哥湾仍有近140万桶/日的供应未能恢复，这是近年来飓风影响供应最长的一次。

策略：单边中性，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：多家机构下调美国经济预期

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场升贴水在经历了此前一日的急跌后止跌企稳，盘面小幅回落后下游买兴小幅回暖一定程度上支撑升贴水止跌企稳。平水铜早市始报于升水30-40元/吨后市场依旧难闻大量询盘者，部分持货商迅速调价至升水10-20元/吨后市场依旧难见大量买兴，贸易买盘都欲在平水附近收货，若携量压价可平水成交。好铜市场货源较为稀缺，早市依旧报于升水70元/吨挺价惜售，但在平水铜拖累下，最终整体报至升水40-60元/吨，市场买盘兴趣有限，市场难闻大量成交。湿法铜则在部分ESOX等品牌指引下，报至贴水60-40元/吨。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得一度美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：进入累库周期，无炒作背景下被资金空配

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控。9月亚洲PX平衡表仅微幅累库。

策略建议：（1）单边：逢低做多，在煤化工上涨背景下，PTA与煤无关且短期累库周期背景下被资金对冲空配，估值有所超跌。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间