Iron Ore: Demand is steadily declining, and both futures and spot markets are operating weakly.

Opinion and logic: Yesterday, both the open interest and trading volume of iron ore 2201 contract rose sharply, and it closed at 730 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton, or 2.28%. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 970 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton; SSF reported 640 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton; the spread between high and low-grade products continued to widen to 330 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the port traded a total of 751,000 tons, and the performance of the transaction data continued to be weak.

The total inventory of imported sintering powder from 64 steel mills was 14.6496 million tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. The total daily consumption of sintering powder was 524,600 tons, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous month. Shagang Group plans to take turns overhauling the two bar lines from September 16 to 30, which is expected to affect the thread output about 36,400 tons. Xuzhou Jinhong originally scheduled the whole plant inspection from September 18th to October 8th, and it is now advanced to September 10th, which is expected to affect the production of snails by 4000 tons/day. Jiangsu: From September 8th to 30th, launch a special energy-saving supervision action for enterprises with a comprehensive energy consumption of 50,000 tons of standard coal or more in 2021.

On the whole, starting in September, the national crude steel production limit reorganization has accelerated. Steel mills across China are frequently directly or indirectly impacted by various policy events such as limited crude steel production, two-high project governance, dual energy consumption control, environmental protection inspections, and sports events. Blast furnaces and electric furnaces have been shut down and overhauled significantly, and sintering machines have been planned to stop production from time to time. With the overall loose supply of iron ore, the demand side is expected to further decline. The output data of five building materials commonly used in construction released by the Steel Union yesterday showed that steel output is still steadily declining, and iron ore prices will continue to be weak.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: initiate a short position when the price hits high

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (01 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Inventory replenishment for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: During the peak season for rubber delivery, raw material prices continued to be weak.

On September 9, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,320 (+5) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,850 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1070 yuan/ton (-205); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 94,361 (-3,905) lots, ,the short position was 137,191 (-3,826) lots, and the net short position was 42,830 (+79) lots.

On September 9, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,470 (+60) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,665 (+10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,655 (+10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,635 (+30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported 95 (+124) yuan/ton.

As of September 3: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 225,354 (+5,762) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 192,480 (+3,700) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 49.6 (0), cup lump 44.15 (-0.3), latex 46.50 (-0.8), RSS3 51.49 (0).

As of September 2, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 50.08% (-5.81%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 54.52 (-3.13%).

Opinion: The price of rubber continued to be weak yesterday. The fundamentals of rubber have not changed much this week, while market prices have declined significantly. The fall in rubber prices is more a reflection of the pessimistic expectations of future supply and demand. On the one hand, demand continues to be weak, affected by domestic environmental inspections and the decline in car sales caused by insufficient overseas chips. At present, Thailand's main production areas are facing heavy rainfall, and short-term rubber delivery may be suppressed. It is expected that raw material prices will stabilize. The short-term downside of market prices may also be limited, and investors should not be too bearish. Due to the weak supply and demand in the future, it is expected that there is not much room for the upward repair of the rubber price. It is currently recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: China releases its strategic reserve crude oil inventory.

Yesterday China decided to release another batch of strategic reserves to curb oil prices. The difference from the last time is that the release of reserves was officially released through official media, and the purpose of stabilizing prices is even more obvious. However, the quantity and location of the reserves have not been announced this time, but it is certain that they will be issued to the main refinery. We believe that the nature of this release of reserves is more of the inventory rotation between strategic reserves and commercial reserves, that is, the currently released strategic reserves may be returned to the government after a period of time, but this will still curb the willingness of major refineries to purchase crude oil in the short term. However, the willingness of local refineries and large refineries to purchase is still strong. Refineries are still waiting for the issuance of the fourth batch of crude oil import quotas, and some refineries and even Zhejiang Petrochemical have begun to process fuel oil. We believe that this release of reserves may partly hedge the impact of the future issuance of crude oil quotas, but China’s crude oil buying interest in the fourth quarter is expected to recover marginally.

Strategy: Unilaterally neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: Some downstream orders have slowed down, and the willingness of downstream replenishment has weakened.

Spot: According to SMM, the market price dropped slightly yesterday, but it still did not attract a lot of downstream buying interest. Although premiums and discounts have continued to pick up slightly, the differences between buyers and sellers on prices remain, resulting in few large transactions in the market. Standard-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of 40-50 yuan/ton in the morning session, but there were few inquirers in the market. Due to demand for spot exchange, some holders slightly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 30 yuan/ton, which slightly improved market transactions. However, the holders were unwilling to adjust the price again, and the buyers and sellers have large differences on the price, which caused the overall market transaction to be weaker than expected. The supply of High-Grade Copper was relatively tight, with the overall quotation reporting a premium of 50-70 yuan/ton. Some holders even offered a premium of 70 yuan/ton, but they had little willingness to adjust prices, highlighting their reluctance to sell. The overall supply of Hydro-Copper was tight. Under the guidance of some MV, BMK and other brands, the overall quotation was 30-10 yuan/ton, and it was difficult to see the spread with some poorer brands of Standard-Grade Copper

Viewpoint: On the macro level, the European Central Bank kept the three key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. In addition, the European Central Bank kept the rate of debt purchases for the Asset Purchase Program (APP) unchanged at 20 billion euros per month and slowed down the rate of debt purchases for the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) in the fourth quarter. The impact of this interest rate meeting on the market is relatively limited. After the announcement of the resolution, the US dollar index has not fluctuated much, which also reflects that the market sentiment is not overly surprised. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits from the United States to September 4 was 310,000, a record low since the week of March 14, 2020. The pessimism that the previous non-agricultural data was significantly lower than expected has improved. After the data was released, the US dollar index pulled up. But at the same time, it should be noted that the US federal government ended the new crown bailout bill on September 6, which to a certain extent also promoted the decline in the number of initial jobless claims. Domestically, CPI and PPI were announced in August. CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic, CPI weakened slightly. PPI increased by 9.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and previous values, and hitting the highest value since September 2008, mainly due to the increase in prices of coal, chemicals and steel products. The PPI-CPI scissors gap reached an all-time high of 8.7% in August, and the profits of mid- and downstream companies were eroded. The structural contradictions in the economy are magnified, increasing downward pressure on the economy. From a fundamental perspective, in terms of consumption, according to SMM data, new orders for wire and cable, copper strip, and refined copper rod companies have all declined month-on-month, and new orders for enameled wire companies have slowed down. At present, the 09-10 contract continues to maintain a high level back structure, and downstream companies are not willing to stock up under the current structure, and the wait-and-see sentiment is obvious. However, after two days of price reductions, Shanghai copper premiums and discounts have picked up, and South China copper premiums and discounts have continued to decline. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory and SHFE continued to destock. In terms of imports, along with the rebound in domestic and foreign prices, the profit and loss of imports continued to rise. On the whole, the downward pressure on the economy is still there, and consumption data at the beginning of September showed weak performance. Unilaterally, we hold the judgment that the market will maintain wide fluctuations and there might be downside risks.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: PX still has a maintenance plan in the future; the price of filament is reduced for promotion.

Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable. In September, the Asian PX balance sheet accumulated only a small amount of inventory.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Initiate a long position when the price hits low. Under the background of rising coal chemical industry, PTA has nothing to do with coal; and under the background of short-term inventory accumulation cycle, it is hedged by funds and was allocated by initiating short positions, therefore PTA valuation has declined.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：需求稳步下降，期现偏弱运行

观点与逻辑：昨日铁矿石2201合约放量增仓震荡，收于730元/吨，跌17元/吨，跌幅2.28%。青岛港PB报970元/吨，跌7元/吨，超特报640元/吨，跌23元/吨，高低品价差继续走阔至330元/吨。昨日港口累计成交75.1万吨，成交数据表现持续偏弱。

64家钢厂进口烧结粉总库存1464.96万吨，环比减4%，烧结粉总日耗52.46万吨，环比减3.8%。沙钢计划9月16日-30日对两条棒材线轮流检修，预计影响螺纹产量约3.64万吨。徐州金鸿原定于9月18日-10月8日的全厂检修，现提前至9月10日，预计影响盘螺产量4000吨/天。江苏：9月8日至30日，开展2021年综合能耗5万吨标准煤以上企业专项节能监察行动。

整体来看，9月份开始，全国粗钢压产重振旗鼓节奏加快，全国各地钢厂频频受到粗钢压产、两高项目治理、能耗双控、环保督察及体育赛事等多种政策事件叠加、密集的直接或间接冲击，高炉、电炉停限产及检修明显增多，烧结机也不定期的规划停产，在铁矿整体供应偏宽松的格局下，需求端有望更下一层楼。昨日钢联五大材产量数据显示，钢材产量仍在稳步下降中，铁矿石价格仍将弱势运行。

策略：

单边：逢高做空

跨品种：多01材空01矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，中秋国庆补库情况，铁矿发运，疫情加重等。

橡胶：割胶旺季，原料价格延续弱势

9号，RU主力收盘13320（+5）元/吨，混合胶报价11850元/吨（0），主力合约基差-1070元/吨（-205）；前二十主力多头持仓94361（-3905），空头持仓137191（-3826），净空持仓42830（+79）。

9号，NR主力收盘价10470（+60）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1665（+10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1655美元/吨（+10），印尼标胶1635（+30）美元/吨。主力合约基差95（+124）元/吨。

截至9月3日：交易所总库存225354（+5762），交易所仓单192480（+3700）。

原料：生胶片49.6（0），杯胶44.15（-0.3），胶水46.50（-0.8），烟片51.49（0）。

截止9月2日，国内全钢胎开工率为50.08%（-5.81%），国内半钢胎开工率为54.52%(-3.13%）。

观点：昨天胶价延续弱势运行，本周橡胶实质基本面变化不大，而盘面价格则明显下行。胶价的下跌更多是对于后期供需的悲观预期，一方面需求持续偏弱，受到国内环保检查的影响以及海外芯片不足带来的汽车销售下滑等影响，同时国内指标胶的进入也给予现货价格压制。目前泰国主产区面临降雨较大，对于短期割胶或有所抑制，预计原料价格将有所企稳。盘面价格短期下行空间亦或有限，不宜过分看空。因后期供需偏弱，预计胶价向上修复的空间不大。建议观望为宜。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：中国释放战略储备原油库存

昨日中国决定再度释放一批战略储备来抑制油价，与上次不同的是本次抛储是通过官媒正式发布，平抑价格的目的更加明显，不过本次抛储仍未公布抛储的数量与地点，但可以确定的是下发给主营炼厂，我们认为本次抛储的性质更多属于战储与商储之前的轮库，即当前释放的战略储备可能在一段时间后要返还给政府，不过仍将在短期内抑制主营炼厂的原油采购意愿，但地方炼厂与大炼化的采购意愿仍旧强烈，炼厂仍旧等待第四批原油进口配额的下发，部分炼厂甚至浙石化都开始加工燃料油，我们认为，本次抛储可能起到部分对冲未来原油配额下发的影响，但四季度中国的原油买兴预计仍是边际恢复，

策略：单边中性，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：部分下游订单放缓 下游补库意愿减弱

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日盘面小幅回落却依旧没有吸引下游大量买兴，升贴水虽有持续小幅回暖，但买卖双方对价格分歧依旧，市场难闻大量成交。平水铜早市始报于升水40-50元/吨后市场询价者寥寥，部分持货商换现需求下小幅调价至升水30元/吨，市场成交略有好转，但持货商不愿再度调价，买卖双方对价格分歧较大，市场整体成交较预期偏弱。好铜市场货源较为紧张，整体报至升水50-70元/吨，部分持货商甚至挺价于升水70元/吨难见调价意愿，凸显捂货惜售情绪。湿法铜整体货源偏紧，在部分MV，BMK等品牌报价指引下，整体报至贴水30-10元/吨，和部分较差品牌平水铜难见价差。

观点：昨日日盘铜价先抑后扬，盘面表现多头增仓局面。宏观方面，欧洲央行维持三大关键利率不变，符合市场预期。此外，欧洲央行将资产购买计划（APP）的购债速度维持在每月200亿欧元不变，并放缓第四季度的紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP）购债速度。本次议息会议对市场的影响相对有限，在决议公布后美元指数波动不大，也反应出市场情绪没有过于惊讶。美国至9月4日当周初请失业金人数录得31万人，创2020年3月14日当周以来新低，对前期非农数据数据大幅不及预期的悲观情绪有所改善，数据公布后美元指数拉涨。但同时应注意到，美国联邦政府已于9月6日结束新冠纾困救助法案，一定程度上也推动了初请失业金人数的下降。国内方面，8月CPI及PPI公布。CPI同比增长0.8%，受疫情影响，CPI小幅走弱。PPI同比增长9.5%，超出市场预期与前值，创下08年9月至今最高值，主要受煤炭、化工和钢材的等产品价格上涨影响。PPI-CPI剪刀差8月达到8.7%的历史最高值，中下游企业利润被侵蚀，经济结构性矛盾放大，加大经济下行压力。基本面看，消费方面，据SMM，电线电缆、铜板带、精铜制杆企业新增订单环比均回落，漆包线企业新增订单放缓。目前09-10合约持续维持back高位结构，下游企业在当前结构下备货意愿不强，观望情绪明显，可以看出9月消费开门红“不红”。不过经历两日价格下调后，沪铜升贴水有所回升，华南铜升贴水持续下降。库存方面，LME铜库存及SHFE持续去库。进口方面，伴随内外比价的回升，进口盈亏持续回升。整体看来，经济下行压力仍在，9月消费开门不红，单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得一度美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA:PX后续仍有检修计划，长丝降价促销

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控。9月亚洲PX平衡表仅微幅累库。

策略建议：（1）单边：逢低做多，在煤化工上涨背景下，PTA与煤无关且短期累库周期背景下被资金对冲空配，估值有所超跌。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间