Iron Ore: Crude steel production has become more restrictive, and the weakness of iron ore is difficult to change.

Last week, iron ore continued to fall against the backdrop of tightening restrictions on crude steel production, closing at 732.5 points, down 53.5 points (-6.81%) from the previous week. In terms of spot, the lowest spot price of PB fines in the four ports was 955 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; SSF reported 628 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton from last week. The Platts Index was US$128.75, a drop of US$14.45 from last week. Basis contracted slightly on a week-on-week basis. As of last week, the basis of SSF corresponding to the iron ore 01 contract was 115.1 points, which was 9.137 points less than the previous week. The average weekly turnover of iron ore at the main port was 750,000 tons/day, a decrease of 180,000 tons/day from the previous week.

In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipped 32.374 million tons, an increase of 832,000 tons from the previous week; the total shipped iron ore from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 25.655 million tons, a decrease of 495,000 tons from the previous week; and the shipping volume from Australia was 17.972 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons from the previous week; of which 15.323 million tons were sent from Australia to China, a decrease of 499,000 tons from the previous week; the shipment from Brazil was 7.683 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. The total arrivals at 45 ports in China was 22.875 million tons, a decrease of 201,000 tons from the previous week; the total arrivals at the six northern ports was 10.267 million tons, a decrease of 2.431 million tons from the previous month. Given the good weather, the supply side showed a loose pattern last week. The southeast coast of China will be affected by Typhoon Candu next week, which may lead to a decrease in the delivery and arrival of iron ore in the short term.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 73.57%, a decrease of 0.65% from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 17.32%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 84.77%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.68%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.55%; the profit rate of steel mills was 88.74%, a month-on-month increase of 0.43%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.06%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.2563 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18,100 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 254,100 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 56.49%, a decrease of 0.14% month-on-month; a capacity utilization rate of 68.08%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.87%; a utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity was 74.11%, a decrease of 10.75% from the same period last year, and the profit rate of steel mills was 77.91%, an increase of 0.61 month-on-month. Affected by the continuous advancement of crude steel production restrictions, the demand side of iron ore continued to decrease, and the iron ore was operating weakly.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted 13035.2 imported iron ore inventories in 45 ports across China, a month-on-month drop of 63.95; the average daily port congestion volume of 283.26 dropped by 8.42. Australian mines 6481.58 fell 49.6, Brazil mines 3854.16 increased 42.7, trade ore 7476.9 fell 7.2, pellets 418.3 fell 0.31, iron ore concentrates 1126.09 increased 47.68, lump ore 2036.59 fell 3.17, coarse iron powder 9454.22 fell 108.15. There are 185 ships in port, an increase of 12. Last week's port inventory exceeded 6 million tons from the beginning of the year, which was at the historical median level in the past five years, mainly due to the accumulation of low-grade non-mainstream iron ore inventory. As the global delivery of iron ore this year was significantly lower than expected at the beginning of the year, the current performance of the current iron ore inventory accumulation is also lower than expected due to the reduction in demand for crude steel production restrictions.

On the whole, under the strong pressure of the national crude steel production restriction policy in the second half of the year, iron ore prices are unlikely to have a strong performance. From the perspective of the lengthening of the cycle, due to the global promotion of low-carbon and green environmental protection, the carbon element industry chain bears the brunt of the suppression. The restrictions on high energy-consuming and high-carbon industries have increased and a full range of industrial transformation and upgrading has begun, and the steel smelting is also vigorously advocating to increase the use and investment of electric furnaces. In this context, the expansion of the blast furnace ironmaking end will be difficult to sustain.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore; initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when the price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Inventory replenishment for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The downstream maintains rigid demand and the price of rubber is expected to be repaired slightly.

Last week, rubber futures prices fell first and then rose. Driven by funds, prices fell sharply in the first half of last week, but the real fundamentals did not change much. Therefore, prices had been repaired in the second half of last week.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of September 10 was 232,180 tons (+6826), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 198,470 tons (+5990). Due to the domestic rubber delivery season, especially the release of output in the main producing areas of Yunnan, the recent stock exchange growth rate has continued to increase. As of September 3, the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly due to the lower than expected arrivals, and the absolute amount was also at a low level in recent years compared to the same period last year.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of September 9, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 41.2% (-8.88%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 39.48 (-15.04%). The weak domestic demand and the pressure on the finished product inventory of tire factories have caused the recent operating rate to continue to decline. Seasonally, the operating rate in September is expected to usher in a seasonal improvement. However, due to the economic downturn at home and abroad, the overall improvement is limited, and we have to wait for the end of domestic environmental protection inspections.

Viewpoint: Recently, due to the sharp drop in market prices, arbitrage orders have been leaving the market one after another. The contraction of futures and spot prices is more obvious, which may partly reflect the relative strength of spot prices. With the exit of the arbitrage orders, the short force in the futures market has also weakened, bringing about a restoration of prices last weekend. At present, domestic supply is gradually picking up, and demand has to wait for the end of domestic downstream environmental protection inspections. However, with the advent of the domestic long holiday, under the background of low raw materials in tire factories, there will be actions to replenish inventory in the future, which will bring about a rebound in the demand for raw materials. However, a large demand rebound will have to wait for a substantial decrease in the inventory of finished products in tire factories. Therefore, the price may show a slight repair pattern in the short-term, and it is recommended to participate in the short-term.

Strategy: cautiously bullish, participate in the short term

Risk points: domestic supply may increase substantially; demand may continue to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts; funds may be tight.

Crude oil: China's release of SPR may have limited negative impact on oil prices.

Last week, China rarely released its strategic reserves in batches through official media announcements to achieve the purpose of stabilizing oil prices. Some market views interpret this as it will suppress China's crude oil purchase demand, which is therefore negative for oil prices. But we think that is not the case. The announcement of the news is not bearish for oil prices, but may be bullish for oil prices. The reason is the following:

1. The release of SPR confirms that refineries have strong demand for replenishment, but commercial crude oil inventories and refineries' own inventories have fallen to a low point, which is equivalent to the current domestic inventory replenishment method only leaving SPR. However, due to its own characteristics of ensuring energy security, SPR cannot be continuously released on a large scale. Therefore, it can only alleviate the short-term procurement needs of some refineries, so the rigid demand brought by the large refining and chemical operations cannot be suppressed.

2. In order to stabilize oil prices this year, relevant policies have been intensively introduced, including reduction of crude oil import quotas and refined oil export quotas, inspections of import quotas for local refining and reselling, tax evasion, and the collection of consumption taxes on LCO and mixed aromatics. The official announcement of SPR is equivalent to the final policy card. Although it may mean that the fourth batch of crude oil quotas issued in the future will also be reduced, the current bearish policy is equivalent to the price in, and the policy tools and space available in the future are already very limited.

3.Since this official announcement did not announce the details of the release of reserves, including the time and amount of release, the market still has many questions about the specific circumstances of this release of reserves. There is even a view that this announcement is the July reserve dumping behavior that has already occurred.

Therefore, in summary, we believe that the official announcement of the release of reserves will not necessarily cause a significant negative impact for oil prices. Instead, it confirms that the current demand for replenishment of Chinese refineries is very strong. We believe that China's crude oil buying interest has bottomed out, and the pace of gradual release with the issuance of quotas will remain unchanged in the future.

Strategy: Unilaterally neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: The domestic macroeconomic impact is bearish, but the fundamentals are still supported.

Spot situation: According to SMM news, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of September 10 was operating at 68,760-70,000 yuan/ton, and showed a trend of first decline and then rise in the middle of the week. The average premium and discount quotations of Standard-Grade Copper ran from 15 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, with large fluctuations in the middle of the week. After falling to the lowest point of the week on September 7th, it rebounded from September 8th to 10th. Last week, copper prices pulled up in the second half of the week. The Shanghai Copper 10 contract rose from a minimum of 68,270 yuan to a maximum of 71,630 yuan/ton. It closed at 71,430 yuan/ton on Friday night, a weekly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton.

Short-term view: From a macro perspective, the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting held on Thursday kept the three key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. In addition, the European Central Bank kept the asset purchase plan (APP) debt purchase rate unchanged at 20 billion euros per month and slowed down the fourth quarter's emergency debt purchase plan (PEPP). The impact of this meeting on interest rates on the market is relatively limited. From the week of September 4 to September 4, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits hit a record low since the week of March 14, 2020, which improved the pessimism that the previous non-agricultural data was substantially lower than expected. However, since the US federal government ended the New Crown Relief Act on September 6, it is judged that the impact of this data is limited. The U.S. August PPI was higher than expected, and inflationary pressures are still present. Domestically, CPI, PPI and social financial data are released. The overall social financial data is neutral, the CPI weakened slightly, and the PPI hit the highest value since the financial crisis. The PPI-CPI scissors gap is the highest in history, economic structural contradictions have been amplified, and downward pressure on the economy has increased.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The market has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, and processing fees have fallen.

Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable, and the accumulating pressure in October will not be great. The Asian PX balance sheet was slightly destocked in September, and there was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in October-November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Initiate a long position when the price hits low. Under the background of rising coal chemical industry, PTA has nothing to do with coal; and under the background of short-term inventory accumulation cycle, it is hedged by funds and was allocated by initiating short positions, therefore PTA valuation has declined.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：粗钢压产趋严，铁矿弱势难改

上周，铁矿在粗钢压产趋严的背景下继续下跌，收于732.5点，较前一周下跌53.5点（-6.81%）。现货方面，日青京曹港最低现货价格PB粉955元/吨，较上周跌70元/吨，超特粉628元/吨，较上周跌57元/吨。普氏指数128.75美金，较上周下跌14.45美金。基差周环比小幅收缩，截止上周，超特粉对应铁矿石01合约基差115.1点，较前一周收缩9.137点。主港铁矿周均成交75万吨/天，周环比降低18万吨/天。

供应方面，全球铁矿石发运总量3237.4万吨，环比增加83.2万吨；澳洲巴西19港铁矿发运总量2565.5万吨，环比减少49.5万吨；澳洲发运量1797.2万吨，环比减少50万吨；其中澳洲发往中国的量1532.3万吨，环比减少49.9万吨；巴西发运量768.3万吨，环比增加0.5万吨。中国45港到港总量2287.5万吨，环比减少20.1万吨；北方六港到港总量为1026.7万吨，环比减少243.1万吨。良好天气表现下，上周供给端呈现偏宽松格局，下周我国东南沿海将受到台风“灿都”的影响，短期或会导致铁矿石的发运、到港量减少。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率73.57%，环比上周下降0.65%，同比去年下降17.32%；高炉炼铁产能利用率84.77%，环比下降0.68%，同比下降9.55%；钢厂盈利率88.74%，环比增加0.43%，同比下降6.06%；日均铁水产量225.63万吨，环比下降1.81万吨，同比下降25.41万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率56.49%，环比下降0.14%，产能利用率68.08%，环比下降0.87%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为74.11%，较去年同期下降10.75%，钢厂盈利率77.91%，环比增加0.61。受粗钢压产不断推进的影响，铁矿需求端继续减量回落，弱势运行。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45港进口铁矿库存13035.2，环比降63.95；日均疏港量283.26降8.42。分量方面，澳矿6481.58降49.6，巴西矿3854.16增42.7，贸易矿7476.9降7.2 ，球团418.3降0.31，精粉1126.09增47.68，块矿2036.59降3.17，粗粉9454.22降108.15；在港船舶185条增12条。上周港口库存较年初累库超过600万吨，处近五年历史中位水平，主要以低品非主流矿累库为主。由于今年铁矿全球发运大幅低于年初预期，在粗钢压产需求减量之下，当前铁矿累库表现也低于预期。

整体来看，在下半年全国粗钢压产的政策强压下，铁矿价格难有强势表现。周期拉长来看，由于全球大力提倡低碳绿色环保，碳元素产业链首当其冲受到打压，两高产业限制增多，高耗能高碳产业开启全方位的产业转型升级，钢铁冶炼环节也在大力提倡增加电炉的使用和投入，在此背景下，我国高炉炼铁端扩张式大幅上涨的情况难以持续。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿、多成材空铁矿石

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，台风天气影响，中秋国庆补库情况，疫情加重等

橡胶：下游刚需采购，胶价有望小幅修复

上周橡胶期价先抑后扬，在资金推动下，上半周价格出现大幅下挫，但实质基本面变化不大，因此，在下半周价格有所修复。

国内交易所总库存截止9月10日为232180吨（+6826），期货仓单量198470吨（+5990），国内割胶旺季，尤其是云南主产区产量跟进使得近期交易所库存增速继续提升。截至9月3日，因到港量不及预期，青岛保税区库存延续小幅回落，绝对量同比也处于近年低位。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止9月9日，全钢胎企业开工率41.2%（-8.88%），半钢胎企业开工率39.48（-15.04%）。国内需求的示弱以及轮胎厂成品库存压力带来近期开工率继续下滑。季节性来看，9月开工率有望迎来季节性改善，但因海内外经济下行，总体改善有限，还须等待国内环保检查结束。

观点：近期因盘面价格大幅回落，导致套利盘陆续离场，期现价格缩窄较为明显，或部分反映现货价格相对坚挺。随着套利盘的离场，期货盘面空头力量也有所减缓，带来上周末价格的重新修复。目前国内供应逐步回升，需求则须等待国内下游环保检查的结束。但随着国内长假的来临，轮胎厂低原料背景下，后期将有补库的动作，因此将带来原料需求的回暖。但大的需求回升还须等待轮胎厂成品库存的实质下降。因此，价格短期或呈现小幅修复的格局，建议短线参与。

策略：谨慎偏多，短线参与

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：中国释放SPR对油价的利空影响或有限

上周中国罕见地通过官方媒体公布会分批释放战略储备，来起到平抑油价的目的，部分市场观点解读为会打压中国的原油采购需求，因此对油价利空，但我们认为并非如此，该消息的发布非但利空油价，反而可能利多油价，原因在于以下几点：1、释放SPR印证了炼厂的补库需求强烈，但商业原油库存以及炼厂自身库存已经降至低点，相当于目前国内的库存子弹只剩下SPR，但SPR因为自身保障能源安全的特点，不可能持续性地大规模地释放，因此只能缓解部分炼厂的短期的采购需求，大炼化投产带来刚性需求是抑制不了的；2、今年为了平抑油价，相关的政策密集出台，包括削减原油进口配额以及成品油出口配额，对地炼倒卖进口配额、逃税等领域的核查，对LCO、混芳征收消费税等，而官宣SPR相当于最后的政策底牌，虽然可能意味着未来发放的第四批原油配额也会有所削减，但目前政策的利空相当于已经Price in，未来能用的政策工具与空间已经非常有限；3、由于此前市场在7月份已经出现了中国抛售SPR的消息，但本次官宣公布并没有公布抛储的细节，包括抛储的时间与数量等，因此市场对于本次抛储的具体情况仍有诸多疑问，甚至有观点认为本次公布的是已经发生的7月抛储行为。因此，综上所述，我们认为本次官宣抛储并不一定会对油价造成显著利空，反而印证了当前中国炼厂的补库需求非常强烈，我们认为中国的原油买兴已经见底，未来随着配额下发逐步释放的节奏依然不变。

策略：单边中性，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：国内宏观影响偏空，但基本面仍有支撑

现货情况：据SMM讯，9月10日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于68,760元/吨-70,000元/吨，且周中呈先抑后扬走势。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于15元/吨至115元/吨，周中波动较大，9月7日下降至当周最低点后，9月8日-10日有所回升。上周铜价于后半周拉涨，沪铜10合约由最低68,270元吨升至最高71,630元/吨，周五夜盘收71,430元/吨，周度涨2,000元/吨。

短期观点：从宏观来看，周四召开的欧洲央行议息会议维持三大关键利率不变，符合市场预期。此外，欧洲央行将资产购买计划（APP）的购债速度维持在每月200亿欧元不变，并放缓第四季度的紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP）购债速度。本次议息会议对市场影响相对有限。美国至9月4日当周初请失业金人数创2020年3月14日当周以来新低，对前期非农数据大幅不及预期的悲观情绪有所改善。但由于美国联邦政府已于9月6日结束新冠纾困救助法案，因此判断该数据影响幅度有限。美国8月PPI高于预期，目前通胀压力仍在。国内方面，CPI、PPI及社融数据公布，社融数据整体偏中性，CPI小幅走弱，PPI创下金融危机以来最高值。PPI-CPI剪刀差创历史最高，经济结构性矛盾放大，经济下行压力增大。

中长期观点：宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：累库拐点 货币政策导向

PTA:进入累库周期，加工费有所超跌

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控，10月累库压力不大。亚洲PX平衡表9月小幅去库，10-11月小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：逢低做多，在煤化工上涨背景下，PTA与煤无关且短期累库周期背景下被资金对冲空配，估值有所超跌。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间