Iron Ore: The pace of production restriction has been accelerated, and iron ore is operating at a low level.
Yesterday, the 2201 iron ore contract failed to hit the high price. After lightening its position and rebounding slightly, it closed at 711 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.0 yuan/ton, or 0.71%, with a transaction volume of about 620,000 lots and the open interest losing about 5,000 lots. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 910-915 yuan/ton, SSF reported 595-600 yuan/ton, Yangdi Fines reported 870-880, a cumulative decline of 0-10 throughout the day, and transaction data showed a slight recovery.
The trading volume of China's iron ore spot trading platform exceeded 300 million tons. The market-oriented trading of energy consumption indicators in Anhui Province began to use the Interim Measures for Management. In August 2021, the iron ore shipments of Odisha State in India decreased by 12% month-on-month.
On the whole, global shipments and arrivals at ports increased last week on a month-on-month basis. Among them, the month-on-month increase of Australian mines to port increased by 2.153 million tons, and the month-on-month ratio of Brazil mines to ports was slightly reduced by 185,000 tons. At the same time, from a regional perspective, the increase in North China is greater. With the impact of restricted production, the total daily consumption of imported sintered fine ore maintains a downward trend. The operating rate of electric furnaces fell by 12% year-on-year, and the policy still maintained the trend without easing and changes. From July to August, the domestic pig iron output significantly decreased by 2.6% and 4.0% from the previous month. The demand intensity of iron ore has declined significantly, and it is difficult to perform well.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore; initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;
2. The performance of steel demand at home and abroad;
3. Shipping data may change drastically;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
Rubber: Outbound volumes rebounded, and port inventories continued to decline.
On September 14, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,780 (+255) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,150 (+150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1055 yuan/ton (-155); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 81,435 (-4,044) lots, ,the short position was 118,759 (-6,171) lots, and the net short position was 37,324 (-2,127) lots.
On September 14, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,845 (+250) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,730 (+45) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,730 (+45) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,695 (+35) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -202 (-64) yuan/ton.
As of September 10: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 232,180 (+6,826) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 198,470 (+5,990) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.11 (-0.11), cup lump 44.9 (+0.45), latex 47.3 (+0.3), RSS3 52.55 (+0.66).
As of September 9, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 41.2% (-8.88%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 39.48 (-15.04%).
Opinion: Rubber prices rebounded sharply yesterday. Driven by downstream stocking, prices continued to rebound. The Mid-Autumn Festival approaching and the fall in rubber prices last week have brought about the demand for raw material replenishment in downstream tire factories. The rebound in the outbound rate and the sluggish inbound rate have led to further depletion of port inventory. The destocking of port inventories is particularly supportive for No. 20 rubber. Therefore, yesterday's No. 20 rubber futures price performance was stronger, which may partly indicate that the pessimistic sentiment of the previous demand has basically been digested in the market. The recovery of short-term demand and the lack of obvious pressure on supply have brought a rebound in the rubber market. The supply and demand will be weak in the future, and it is expected that there is not much room for the upward repair of the rubber price. It is recommended to participate in the short-term.
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: Hurricane Nicholas caused widespread power outages in Texas.
Hurricane Nicholas Texas caused widespread power outages, Texas refineries and terminals were closed, and the Colonial Pipeline, the largest refined oil pipeline in the United States, was also shut down due to power outages. The gasoline cracking spread once soared by 3.2% during the intraday session, but so far the gasoline pipeline has been restored, and the distillate pipeline has not been restarted. According to preliminary judgments, the refineries and refined oil logistics are more affected by the hurricane. Since nearly 40% of the crude oil platform was still closed due to the impact of Hurricane Ida, the impact of this hurricane was relatively small. However, the Texas refinery and related infrastructure such as pipelines will be more affected by Nicholas. However, the duration of its impact depends on the restoration of power and the presence of floods and equipment damage.
Strategy: Unilaterally neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads
Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.
Copper: Inflation in the United States is lower than expected, and there may be controversy over whether Taper will be implemented in September.
Spot: According to SMM, the spot market maintained yesterday's insipid trading situation. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a discount of around 30-20 yuan/ton against the 09 contract. Due to the typhoon, inquiries from downstream companies were still scarce. When the spread was 200 yuan/ton, some holders voluntarily adjusted the price to a discount of 50-40 yuan/ton due to their willingness to exchange spot, attracting traders to enter the market. After the second trading session, the spread narrowed significantly, and the quotation stabilized at a discount of around 30 yuan/ton. The market's overall quoted price for the 10 contracts was between 160-200 yuan/ton, showing the differentiated attitudes of the holders towards the post-delivery. High-Grade Copper market sources were relatively scarce, whether it is Jinchuan Daban, CCC-P and ENM. A small number of holders had a strong feeling of reluctance to sell their goods, and coupled with the advantage of delivering High-Grade Copper, the overall quotation of High-Grade Copper reached a premium of about 100 yuan/ton. Guixi-Copper even had a premium of 110 yuan/ton, but the buying acceptance was not high, and there were few actual transactions in the market. The supply of Hydro-Copper was also relatively scarce. The actual circulation was mostly norisk and bmk brand quotations, mostly at a discount of 110-60 yuan/ton.
On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: Following Hengli's PTA maintenance expectation, PTA valuation rebounds.
Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable, and the accumulating pressure in October will not be great. The Asian PX balance sheet was slightly destocked in September, and there was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in October-November.
(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish;
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧