Iron Ore: The pace of production restriction has been accelerated, and iron ore is operating at a low level.

Yesterday, the 2201 iron ore contract failed to hit the high price. After lightening its position and rebounding slightly, it closed at 711 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.0 yuan/ton, or 0.71%, with a transaction volume of about 620,000 lots and the open interest losing about 5,000 lots. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 910-915 yuan/ton, SSF reported 595-600 yuan/ton, Yangdi Fines reported 870-880, a cumulative decline of 0-10 throughout the day, and transaction data showed a slight recovery.

The trading volume of China's iron ore spot trading platform exceeded 300 million tons. The market-oriented trading of energy consumption indicators in Anhui Province began to use the Interim Measures for Management. In August 2021, the iron ore shipments of Odisha State in India decreased by 12% month-on-month.

On the whole, global shipments and arrivals at ports increased last week on a month-on-month basis. Among them, the month-on-month increase of Australian mines to port increased by 2.153 million tons, and the month-on-month ratio of Brazil mines to ports was slightly reduced by 185,000 tons. At the same time, from a regional perspective, the increase in North China is greater. With the impact of restricted production, the total daily consumption of imported sintered fine ore maintains a downward trend. The operating rate of electric furnaces fell by 12% year-on-year, and the policy still maintained the trend without easing and changes. From July to August, the domestic pig iron output significantly decreased by 2.6% and 4.0% from the previous month. The demand intensity of iron ore has declined significantly, and it is difficult to perform well.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore; initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. The performance of steel demand at home and abroad;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Outbound volumes rebounded, and port inventories continued to decline.

On September 14, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,780 (+255) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,150 (+150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1055 yuan/ton (-155); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 81,435 (-4,044) lots, ,the short position was 118,759 (-6,171) lots, and the net short position was 37,324 (-2,127) lots.

On September 14, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,845 (+250) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,730 (+45) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,730 (+45) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,695 (+35) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -202 (-64) yuan/ton.

As of September 10: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 232,180 (+6,826) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 198,470 (+5,990) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.11 (-0.11), cup lump 44.9 (+0.45), latex 47.3 (+0.3), RSS3 52.55 (+0.66).

As of September 9, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 41.2% (-8.88%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 39.48 (-15.04%).

Opinion: Rubber prices rebounded sharply yesterday. Driven by downstream stocking, prices continued to rebound. The Mid-Autumn Festival approaching and the fall in rubber prices last week have brought about the demand for raw material replenishment in downstream tire factories. The rebound in the outbound rate and the sluggish inbound rate have led to further depletion of port inventory. The destocking of port inventories is particularly supportive for No. 20 rubber. Therefore, yesterday's No. 20 rubber futures price performance was stronger, which may partly indicate that the pessimistic sentiment of the previous demand has basically been digested in the market. The recovery of short-term demand and the lack of obvious pressure on supply have brought a rebound in the rubber market. The supply and demand will be weak in the future, and it is expected that there is not much room for the upward repair of the rubber price. It is recommended to participate in the short-term.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Hurricane Nicholas caused widespread power outages in Texas.

Hurricane Nicholas Texas caused widespread power outages, Texas refineries and terminals were closed, and the Colonial Pipeline, the largest refined oil pipeline in the United States, was also shut down due to power outages. The gasoline cracking spread once soared by 3.2% during the intraday session, but so far the gasoline pipeline has been restored, and the distillate pipeline has not been restarted. According to preliminary judgments, the refineries and refined oil logistics are more affected by the hurricane. Since nearly 40% of the crude oil platform was still closed due to the impact of Hurricane Ida, the impact of this hurricane was relatively small. However, the Texas refinery and related infrastructure such as pipelines will be more affected by Nicholas. However, the duration of its impact depends on the restoration of power and the presence of floods and equipment damage.

Strategy: Unilaterally neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: Inflation in the United States is lower than expected, and there may be controversy over whether Taper will be implemented in September.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market maintained yesterday's insipid trading situation. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a discount of around 30-20 yuan/ton against the 09 contract. Due to the typhoon, inquiries from downstream companies were still scarce. When the spread was 200 yuan/ton, some holders voluntarily adjusted the price to a discount of 50-40 yuan/ton due to their willingness to exchange spot, attracting traders to enter the market. After the second trading session, the spread narrowed significantly, and the quotation stabilized at a discount of around 30 yuan/ton. The market's overall quoted price for the 10 contracts was between 160-200 yuan/ton, showing the differentiated attitudes of the holders towards the post-delivery. High-Grade Copper market sources were relatively scarce, whether it is Jinchuan Daban, CCC-P and ENM. A small number of holders had a strong feeling of reluctance to sell their goods, and coupled with the advantage of delivering High-Grade Copper, the overall quotation of High-Grade Copper reached a premium of about 100 yuan/ton. Guixi-Copper even had a premium of 110 yuan/ton, but the buying acceptance was not high, and there were few actual transactions in the market. The supply of Hydro-Copper was also relatively scarce. The actual circulation was mostly norisk and bmk brand quotations, mostly at a discount of 110-60 yuan/ton.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Following Hengli's PTA maintenance expectation, PTA valuation rebounds.

Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable, and the accumulating pressure in October will not be great. The Asian PX balance sheet was slightly destocked in September, and there was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in October-November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：压产节奏加快，铁矿低位运行

昨日铁矿石2201合约冲高未果，减仓小幅反弹，收于711元/吨，涨5.0元/吨，涨幅0.71%，成交约62万手，减仓约0.5万手。青岛港PB粉910-915元/吨，超特报595-600元/吨，杨迪粉报870-880，全天累计下跌0-10，成交数据表现稍有恢复。

中国铁矿石现货交易平台成交量突破3亿吨；安徽省能耗指标市场化交易使用管理暂行办法；2021年8月印度奥迪萨邦铁矿石发货量环比下降12%。

整体来看，上周全球发运和到港环比都是增加的，其中澳矿到港环比增加215.3万吨，巴西到港环比微幅下调18.5万吨，同时从区域看，华北地区增幅较大。而受压产影响，进口矿烧结粉矿的总日耗维持下行趋势，电炉开工同比下降12%，政策仍然维持趋势没有缓和和变动。7-8月份国内生铁产量明显出现同环比分别下降2.6%和4.0%，铁矿的需求强度衰减明显，难有良好表现。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿石，多成材空铁矿石

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：买入看跌

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求表现，铁矿发运，疫情加重等

橡胶：出库回升，港口库存延续下降

14号，RU主力收盘13780（+255）元/吨，混合胶报价12150元/吨（+150），主力合约基差-1055元/吨（-155）；前二十主力多头持仓81435（-4044），空头持仓118759（-6171），净空持仓37324（-2127）。

14号，NR主力收盘价10845（+250）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1730（+45）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1730美元/吨（+45），印尼标胶1695（+35）美元/吨。主力合约基差-202（-64）元/吨。

截至9月10日：交易所总库存232180（+6826），交易所仓单198470（+5990）。

原料：生胶片50.11（-0.11），杯胶44.9（+0.45），胶水47.3（+0.3），烟片52.55（+0.66）。

截止9月9日，国内全钢胎开工率为41.2%（-8.88%），国内半钢胎开工率为39.48%(-15.04%）。

观点：昨天胶价大幅反弹，在下游备货推动下，价格延续反弹。临近中秋假期叠加上周胶价下挫，带来下游轮胎厂的原料补库需求，出库率的回升以及入库率仍维持低迷带来港口库存的进一步去化。港口库存的去化对20号胶支撑尤其明显，因此，昨天盘面20号胶期价表现更为强势，这或也部分说明前期需求悲观的情绪在盘面上也基本得到了消化。短期需求的修复以及供应暂无明显压力带来橡胶的反弹行情。后期供需偏弱，预计胶价向上修复的空间不大。建议短线参与。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：飓风尼古拉斯登陆导致德州大范围断电

飓风尼古拉斯登陆德州导致大范围停电，德州炼厂与码头处于关闭状态，而美国最大的成品油输送管道科洛尼尔管道也由于停电而出现关停，汽油裂解价差盘中一度暴涨3.2%，不过截至目前汽油输送管道已经恢复，而馏分油管道仍未重启，初步判断来看，本次飓风影响更大的是炼厂以及成品油物流，因为原油平台受飓风艾达影响仍有近40%处于关闭状态，在本次飓风中受到的影响较小，但德州炼厂以及管道等相关基础设施受到尼古拉斯的影响会更大，不过其影响的持续时间取决于电力恢复以及是否出现洪涝以及设备损坏。

策略：单边中性，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：美国通胀低于预期 9月Taper或再存争议

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场维持昨日清淡行情，早市平水铜对09合约始报于贴水30-贴水20元/吨左右，台风原因下游企业询盘者依然稀少，价差200元/吨之下部分持货商换现意愿下主动调价至贴水50-40元/吨，吸引贸易商入市成交，第二时段后价差明显缩窄，报价稳定在贴水30元/吨左右，市场对10合约报价整体报至升水160-200元/吨之间，显现持货商对交割后的分化态度。好铜市场货源较为稀缺，无论是金川大板，CCC-P以及ENM，整体市场上货源较为稀缺，少量的持货商捂货惜售情绪强烈，再加上交割好铜的优势因素，整体报至升水100元/吨左右，贵溪铜甚至挺价于交割升水110元/吨，但买盘接受度不高，市场难闻大量实际成交。湿法铜货源同样较为稀缺，实际流通多为norisk及bmk品牌的报价，多在贴水110-60元/吨。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA:后续恒力PTA检修预期，PTA估值反弹

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控，10月累库压力不大。亚洲PX平衡表9月小幅去库，10-11月小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间