Iron Ore: Production restrictions continued to be exerted, and iron ore prices continued to fall.

In terms of supply, global iron ore shipments totaled 31.786 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 588,000 tons; Australia and Brazil’s 19 ports of iron ore shipped totaled 25.795 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons week-on-week; Australia shipped 18.484 million tons, a decrease of 512,000 tons from the previous week; of which 14.163 million tons were shipped from Australia to China, a decrease of 1.16 million tons from the previous week; Brazil shipped 7.311 million tons, an increase of 372,000 tons from the previous week. The total arrivals at 45 ports in China was 23.935 million tons, a decrease of 1.06 million tons from the previous week; the total arrivals at the six northern ports was 13.104 million tons, an increase of 2.837 million tons from the previous week. Under the good weather performance, the southeast coast of China was affected by Typhoon Candu last week, which made the supply side present a loose pattern. Next week, local production reduction policies will continue to be promulgated and implemented, and short-term iron ore shipments and arrivals will increase week-on-week.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 71.88%, a decrease of 1.69% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 18.75%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 83.74%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.03%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.51%; the profit rate of steel mills was 88.31%, a week-on-week increase of 0.43%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.229 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 27,300 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 279,700 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 55.66%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.83%, a capacity utilization rate of 68.13%, a week-on-week increase of 0.05%, and a utilization rate of 74.17% excluding eliminated capacity, a decrease of 10.79% from the same period last year, and a steel mill profit rate of 78.53 %, an increase of 0.61% week-on-week. Affected by the continuous advancement of the production restriction of crude steel, the demand side of iron ore continued to decrease, and the iron ore remained weak.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted 12,975.74 imported iron ore inventories in 45 ports across China, a decrease of 59.46 week-on-week; the average daily port congestion volume of 274.23 dropped by 9.03. Australian mines 6414.89 decreased by 66.69, Brazilian mines 4020.83 increased by 166.67, trade ore 7581.90 increased by 105.00, pellets 408.51 decreased by 9.79, iron ore concentrates 1082.77 increased by 43.32, lump ore 206.84 increased by 32.05, and coarse iron powder 9415.82 decreased by 38.4. The number of ships in the port was 177, a drop of 8. Last week's port inventory exceeded 5 million tons from the beginning of the year, which was at the historical median level in the past five years, mainly low-grade non-mainstream mines. As the global shipment of iron ore this year was significantly lower than expected at the beginning of the year, the current performance of iron ore inventory accumulation is also lower than expected as the demand for limited production of crude steel decreases.

On the whole, the production restriction plans of various provinces were quickly issued and implemented to specific units in September. In the second half of the year, the national policy of restricting the production of crude steel basically continued, and iron ore prices are unlikely to show strong performance. From the background of global environmental awareness, vigorously promote low-carbon green environmental protection. The carbon element industry chain bears the brunt of the suppression, and the restrictions on the two high industries have increased. From the current situation of high-intensity implementation of dual control of energy consumption in China, high-energy-consuming and high-carbon industries have initiated a full range of industrial transformation and upgrading, and at the same time limited production and power restrictions to reduce energy use efficiency. In this context, the expansion of China's blast furnace ironmaking end is difficult to sustain.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. The impact of typhoon weather;

3. Replenishment of inventory during Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Demand recovery is limited and the drive is weak.

Rubber futures prices rebounded slightly last week. Driven by the recovery of the operating rate of domestic tire factories, prices are under support. At the same time, as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, downstream tire factories have carried out certain raw material purchases at low prices, which continued the downward trend of port inventory and continued the recovery trend of rubber prices. During the holiday period, the prices of external markets fell sharply, mainly due to the strength of the US dollar and the pressure on commodities.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of September 17 was 236,651 tons (+4471), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 19,850 tons (+1380). The domestic rubber delivery season has caused the recent stock exchange growth rate to continue to increase. As of September 12, due to the increase in downstream purchases, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued its downward trend, and the absolute volume was also at a low level in recent years compared to the same period last year.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of September 16, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 58.5% (+17.3%), and that of semi-steel tire companies was 52.73% (+13.3%). With the gradual end of domestic environmental inspections, the tire factory operating rate rebounded again. Seasonally, the operating rate in September improved seasonally, but the overall improvement was limited due to the economic downturn in overseas.

Viewpoint: Under the strong US dollar during the holiday, the external price of the market is under pressure and downward, and it is expected that domestic prices will also be dragged down by this. From a fundamental point of view, the short-term driving force is expected to gradually weaken following the recovery of market prices last week. In the future, we will focus on changes on the supply side. On the demand side, after the domestic environmental inspection, the tire factory operating rate was restored last week. Due to the high inventory of finished products in tire factories, it is expected that speculative demand will not be released after normal stocking of raw materials. Domestic demand is weak, and the continuation of overseas demand orders may make domestic tire exports acceptable. The overall demand side may not change too much, and weak and stable. Therefore, changes on the supply side in the future may have a more important impact on prices. At present, the domestic port inventory is delayed due to the impact of logistics, and it will still support domestic prices in the short term. It is expected that the rubber price range in September will fluctuate mainly.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Hurricane Ida caused the three major agencies to revise their supply growth forecasts.

Last week, the three major institutions issued a September report. Although due to the epidemic, the three major institutions have slightly lowered their demand, but the impact of Hurricane Ida has led to a greater downward revision of the supply, thus magnifying the balance sheet gap. However, from the perspective of trends, the balance sheet gap in the fourth quarter will be significantly narrowed. In addition, it is worth noting that the current OECD oil inventory has been at a 5-year low level, and the trend of inventory depletion is still smooth.

Demand: EIA predicts that the demand growth in 2021 will be 4.96 million barrels/day, which is a decrease of 300,000 barrels/day from the previous month. This is mainly due to the Delta epidemic causing demand to be revised down by nearly 500,000 barrels/day in the third quarter. OPEC predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated at 5.95 million barrels per day, which is little changed from last month's forecast. IEA predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.23 million barrels per day, which is revised down by 110,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast, mainly from Japan and India.

Non-OPEC supply: EIA expects that 2021 non-OPEC supply will increase by 900,000 barrels/day compared with the previous month’s forecast, which will be revised down by 200,000 barrels/day, mainly in Russia, the United States and Asia. EIA predicts that the total liquid supply in the United States will increase by 60,000 barrels per day in 2021 year-on-year, and it is expected to increase by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2022. OPEC expects that 2021 non-OPEC supply will increase by 920,000 barrels/day, which is 170,000 barrels/day lower than the previous month’s forecast. Major global producing areas have been revised down to varying degrees. OPEC expects that US liquid production will increase by 80,000 barrels/day year-on-year. , Which was revised down by 40,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The IEA expects that non-OPEC supply in 2021 will increase by 680,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is a downward revision of 180,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast, mainly due to lower production in the United States and Brazil.

OPEC production: EIA caliber OPEC's production in August increased by 60,000 barrels/day to 26.78 million barrels/day. The increase in Saudi production was offset by the decline in Nigeria’s output. OPEC's August OPEC production increased by 150,000 barrels/day to 26.76 million barrels/day from the previous month, mainly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. According to IEA, the output of OPEC in August increased by 210,000 barrels/day to 26.89 million barrels/day. OPEC’s overall compliance rate was 118%, and the increase in production came from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Call on OPEC: EIA estimates COO for 2021 at 27.66 million barrels/day, which is revised down by 60,000 barrels/day from the previous month. According to the EIA balance sheet, the difference between supply and demand in the first to fourth quarters is -1.9 million barrels/day,- 1.7 million barrels/day, -1.3 million barrels/day, and 200,000 barrels/day, the gap in the third quarter continued to be enlarged compared with last month’s forecast. OPEC estimates that the COO for 2021 is 27.66 million barrels/day, an increase of 260,000 barrels/day from last month. From the first to the fourth quarter, the COO was 2530, 2730, 2910, and 28.9 million barrels/day. The COO in the third quarter was revised up significantly. The IEA estimates COO for 2021 at 27.2 million barrels/day, an upward revision of 170,000 barrels/day from the previous month, and the COO of 2630, 2640, 2780, and 28.2 million barrels/day for the first to fourth quarters, with a slight upward revision in the second and third quarters.

Strategy: Unilaterally neutral, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: The external market price fell during the holiday period, pay attention to the FOMC meeting this week.

Spot situation: According to SMM news, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of September 17 was operating at RMB 69,785/ton-RMB 71,475/ton, which fluctuated in the middle of the week. The average premium and discount quotation of flat water copper runs from a discount of 35 yuan/ton to a premium of 125 yuan/ton. Last week, the price of copper fluctuated downwards after it surged on Monday. The Shanghai Copper 11 contract fell from a maximum of RMB 71,820 to a minimum of RMB 68,920/ton. It closed at RMB 69,130/ton on Friday night, a weekly drop of RMB 1,050/ton.

Short-term view:

From a macro point of view, the US inflation data was lower than expected, the number of initial jobless claims continued to remain low, and the monthly retail sales rate in August exceeded expectations, alleviating market concerns about economic recovery. The good performance in terms of data has given the market an expectation for the implementation of Taper as soon as possible. But at the same time, the U.S. debt ceiling is currently facing a critical moment. On October 1, if Congress does not take action, much of the federal government’s operating funds will be exhausted; and later in October, the United States may exceed the debt ceiling, leading to a historic appearance in the United States. Debt default. During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the markets of China, Japan, and South Korea were closed due to the holiday. Market transactions were cold, US stocks and futures fell sharply, and the US dollar strengthened. This partly reflects the uncertainty of the market for economic growth prospects. On the domestic front, the National Development and Reform Commission has frequently spoken out that it will closely monitor changes in market prices and continue to release material reserves to the market. Economic data was announced in August. Except for the relatively strong export data announced in the previous period, the rest of the data showed a decline in the year-on-year growth rate to varying degrees. In terms of infrastructure, which the market is concerned about recently, infrastructure investment has fallen again, with -7% year-on-year in the same month, a slight rebound from July but still at a low level. Through tracking the special debt data, we can see that the current fiscal landing has accelerated, and our judgment is passed on to infrastructure investment. It will take time to go up. Therefore, the view on the financial rearrangement and infrastructure underpinning still needs to be verified at present, and should not be overly optimistic.

On the whole, the macro aspect is negative to the price, but the tightness of scrap copper and low inventory still support the price to a certain extent. This week is about to usher in the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision, which will have a key impact on the future trend of copper prices.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Hengli's PTA maintenance plan was implemented, and the balance sheet was improved in October.

Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable, and the accumulating pressure in October will not be great. The Asian PX balance sheet was slightly destocked in September, and there was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in October-November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：压产持续发力 铁矿跌跌不休

供应方面，全球铁矿石发运总量3178.6万吨，环比减少58.8万吨；澳洲巴西19港铁矿发运总量2579.5万吨，环比增加14万吨；澳洲发运量1848.4万吨，环比减少51.2万吨；其中澳洲发往中国的量1416.3万吨，环比减少116万吨；巴西发运量731.1万吨，环比增加37.2万吨。中国45港到港总量2393.5万吨，环比减少106万吨；北方六港到港总量为1310.4万吨，环比增加283.7万吨。良好天气表现下，上周我国东南沿海将受到台风“灿都”的影响供给端呈现偏宽松格局，下周各地压产政策继续颁布执行，短期铁矿石的发运、到港量环比有所增加。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率71.88%，环比上周下降1.69%，同比去年下降18.75%；高炉炼铁产能利用率83.74%，环比下降1.03%，同比下降10.51%；钢厂盈利率88.31%，环比增加0.43%，同比下降5.19%；日均铁水产量222.90万吨，环比下降2.73万吨，同比下降27.97万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率55.66%，环比下降0.83%，产能利用率68.13%，环比增加0.05%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为74.17%，较去年同期下降10.79%，钢厂盈利率78.53%，环比增加0.61%。受粗钢压产不断推进的影响，铁矿需求端继续减量回落，弱势运行。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45港进口铁矿库存12975.74，环比降59.46；日均疏港量274.23降9.03。分量方面，澳矿6414.89降66.69，巴西矿4020.83增166.67，贸易矿7581.90增105.00 ，球团408.51降9.79，精粉1082.77降43.32，块矿2068.64增32.05，粗粉9415.82降38.4；在港船舶177条降8条。上周港口库存较年初累库超过500万吨，处近五年历史中位水平，主要以低品非主流矿累库为主。由于今年铁矿全球发运大幅低于年初预期，在粗钢压产需求减量之下，当前铁矿累库表现也低于预期。

整体来看，9月各省份的压产计划快速下发执行到具体单位，下半年全国粗钢压产的政策强压基本延续，铁矿价格难有强势表现。从全球环保意识背景下，大力提倡低碳绿色环保，碳元素产业链首当其冲受到打压，两高产业限制增多；而从国内能耗双控的高强度执行现状下，高耗能高碳产业开启全方位的产业转型升级，同时限产限电减少提高能源使用效率。在此背景下，我国高炉炼铁端扩张式大幅上涨的情况难以持续。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多成材空铁矿石

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，台风天气影响，中秋国庆补库情况，疫情加重等

橡胶：需求回升有限，驱动偏弱

上周橡胶期价小幅反弹，在国内轮胎厂开工率重新回升带动下，价格下方受到支撑，同时，临近中秋假期，下游轮胎厂在价格低位下，进行了一定的原料采购，使得港口库存延续下降趋势，使得胶价延续修复走势。假期期间外盘价格大幅下挫，主要在美元强势下，大宗商品承压。

国内交易所总库存截止9月17为236651吨（+4471），期货仓单量199850吨（+1380），国内割胶旺季，使得近期交易所库存增速继续提升。截至9月12日，因下游采购增加，青岛保税区库存延续下降趋势，绝对量同比也处于近年低位。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止9月16日，全钢胎企业开工率58.5%（+17.3%），半钢胎企业开工率52.73%（+13.3%）。随着国内环保检查逐步告一段落，轮胎厂开工率重新回升。季节性来看，9月开工率处于季节性改善，但因海外内经济下行，总体改善有限。

观点：假期外盘价格在美元强势下，承压下行，预计国内价格也将因此受拖累。基本面来看，随着上周盘面价格修复之后，预计短期的推动力量逐步减弱。后期重点关注供应端的变化。需求端来看，国内环保检查之后，上周轮胎厂开工率有所修复，轮胎厂的因成品库存高企，预计正常的原料备货之后，投机性需求暂无法释放。国内需求呈现弱势，而海外需求订单的延续或使得国内轮胎出口尚可，总体需求端变化或不会太大，弱稳为主。因此，后期供应端的变化对于价格的影响或更为重要。目前国内港口库存因物流影响导致的滞后到港，短期仍将对国内价格有支撑，预计9月份胶价区间震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：飓风艾达导致三大机构下修供应增长预测

上周三大机构发布了9月报，本次月报中性略微偏利多，虽然由于疫情原因三大机构将需求小幅下修，但由于飓风艾达的影响导致供应下修幅度更大，从而放大平衡表缺口，不过从趋势来看，四季度平衡表缺口将会显著收窄，此外，值得注意的是目前OECD石油库存已经是5年新低水平，库存去化趋势依然顺畅。

需求：EIA预计对2021年需求增长预估为496万桶/日，较上月下修30万桶/日，主要是Delta疫情导致三季度需求下修近50万桶/日。OPEC预计2021年需求增长预估为595万桶/日，较上月预测几无变化。IEA预计2021年需求增长预估为523万桶/日，较上月预测下修11万桶/日，主要来自日本和印度。

非OPEC供应：EIA预计2021非OPEC供应同比增加90万桶/日，较上月预测下修20万桶/日，主要下修地区为俄罗斯、美国和亚洲。EIA预计2021年美国液体总供应同比增加6万桶/日，预计2022年同比增加137万桶/日。OPEC预计2021非OPEC供应增加92万桶/日，较上月预测下修17万桶/日，全球主要产区均有不同程度下修，OPEC预计美国液体全年产量同比增加8万桶/日，较上月下修4万桶/日。IEA对2021年非OPEC供应预计同比增加68万桶/日，较上月预测下修18万桶/日，主要是美国与巴西产量下修。

OPEC产量：EIA口径8月OPEC产量环比增加6万桶/日至2678万桶/日，沙特增产被尼日利亚产量下滑抵消。OPEC口径8月OPEC产量环比增加15万桶/日至2676万桶/日，主要增产来自沙特，伊拉克和阿联酋。IEA口径8月OPEC产量环比增加21万桶/日至2689万桶/日，OPEC整体合规率为118%，增产来自沙特和伊拉克。

Call on OPEC：EIA对2021年COO预估为2766万桶/日，较上月下修6万桶/日，根据EIA平衡表，一到四季度供需差值为-190万桶/日、-170万桶/日、-130万桶/日、-20万桶/日，三季度的缺口较上月预测继续放大。OPEC对2021年COO预估为2766万桶/日，较上月上修26万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2530、2730、2910、2890万桶/日，三季度COO显著上修。IEA对2021年COO预估为2720万桶/日，较上月上修17万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2630、2640、2780、2820万桶/日，二、三季度小幅上修。

策略：单边中性，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：假期期间外盘走跌，关注本周FOMC会议

现货情况：据SMM讯， 9月17当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于69,785元/吨-71,475元/吨，周中震荡走势。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于贴水35元/吨至升水125元/吨，交割前处贴水状态，交割后重回升水。上周铜价于周一冲高后震荡下行，沪铜11合约由最高71,820元吨跌至最低68,920元/吨，周五夜盘收69,130元/吨，周度跌1,050元/吨。

短期观点：

从宏观来看，美国通胀数据低于预期，初请失业金人数继续维持低位，8月零售销售月率超预期的表现，缓解市场对于经济复苏的担忧。数据方面的良好表现，为市场对于尽快开展Taper开始有了预期。但同时，美国债务上限目前面临关键时刻，10月1日，如果国会不采取行动，联邦政府的许多运营资金将告罄；以及10月晚些时候，美国可能会突破举债上限，导致美国出现历史性债务违约。中秋假期，中国、日本、韩国市场因假期休市，市场交易冷淡，美股及期货大幅走低，美元走强，部分反映市场对于经济增长前景的不确定性。国内方面，发改委频繁发声，表示将密切跟踪监测市场价格变化，继续向市场投放物资储备。8月经济数据公布，除前期公布的出口数据偏强外，其余数据在同比增速上均出现不同程度的回落。近期市场关注的基建方面，基建投资再度下滑，当月同比-7%，较7月小幅回升但仍处于低位，通过跟踪专项债数据可以看到，目前财政落地已在加速，我们判断传递至基建投资上尚需时间，因此对于财政后置，基建托底的观点目前仍需要验证，不可过度乐观。

整体来看，宏观方面对价格偏利空，但废铜紧张以及库存低位仍对价格起到一定支撑。本周即将迎来美联储FOMC利率决议，将对铜价未来走势起到关键影响。

中长期观点：宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，不过近期美联储taper预期不断加强，这使得美元出现大幅走强，而这对于包括铜在内的整体有色金属板块均不是十分有利。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，目前铜品种暂时没有出现进入淡季后便立刻累库的情况，后市需要持续关注库存拐点的出现。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：累库拐点 货币政策导向

PTA:恒力PTA检修计划落地，10月平衡表改善

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控，10月累库压力不大。亚洲PX平衡表9月小幅去库，10-11月小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间