Iron Ore: Crude steel production restrictions are steadily advancing, and iron ore has bottomed out.

Affected by the trend of overseas iron ore during the holiday, the iron ore opened sharply lower yesterday, coming near the cost zone for the first time. In the afternoon, with the rise of coking coal, coke and steel, iron ore successfully counterattacked and ended its decline for several consecutive days. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 699 points, an increase of 70 points from the previous day. In terms of spot, the Union of Steel announced yesterday: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 26.887 million tons, an increase of 1.092 million tons from the previous week; the shipment from Australia was 19.54 million tons, an increase of 1.056 million tons from the previous week. Among them, Australia shipped 16.108 million tons to China, an increase of 1.945 million tons from the previous week; Brazil shipped 7.347 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous week. Global iron ore shipments totaled 33.08 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.298 million tons. From September 13 to September 19, the total arrivals at 45 ports in China was 22.097 million tons, a decrease of 1.838 million tons from the previous week. The total arrivals at the six northern ports were 6.987 million tons, a decrease of 6.117 million tons from the previous week.

On the whole, on the supply side, the total iron ore supply in 2021 will increase steadily. On the consumer side, China's production restriction will continue to advance steadily, and the time limit for production restriction will be completed by the end of November, which will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. Looking forward to the whole year, global iron ore consumption is expected to be flat year-on-year, the contradiction between iron ore supply and demand will continue to deteriorate, and the annual iron ore surplus is conservatively estimated to be around 35 million tons. More critically, steel smelting in 2021 will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase in a short period of time. On the trend, iron ore will continue to decline. Before restocking during the Spring Festival, it is still difficult to see an effective rebound in iron ore.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when the price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. The impact of typhoon weather;

3. Inventory replenishment on Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber:

On September 22, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,300 (-440) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,850 (-275) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -925 yuan/ton (-60); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 81,271 (+7,175) lots, the short position was 120,158 (+9,858) lots, and the net short position was 38,887 (+2,683) lots.

On September 22, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,805 (-360) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,680 (-52.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,660 (-70) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,665 (-30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -34 (+194) yuan/ton.

As of September 17: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 236,651 (+4,471) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 199,850 (+1,380) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.48 (+0.37), cup lump 45.3 (+0.4), latex 48.5 (+1.2), RSS3 52.88 (+0.33).

As of September 16, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.5% (+17.3%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 52.73% (+13.3%).

Opinion: The price of rubber fell again yesterday, dragged down by the sharp drop in overseas market prices during the holidays. From a fundamental point of view, after the price restoration last week, it basically reflects the completion of downstream stocking and a slight rebound in tire factory operating rates. On the supply side, domestic raw material prices and climate impacts have brought about continuous supply release. Under the pattern of futures premiums, stocks on exchanges continued to rise. At the same time, the recent entry of domestic index rubber has also led to a rebound in supply, and overall domestic supply has rebounded. Coupled with the peak season, there is a strong expectation of an increase in supply in the future. However, the continued decline in inventory at domestic ports also reflects that there is not much pressure on supply for the time being. Therefore, short-term prices may be weak, but the downside is also limited. In the future, we will focus on the substantial decline in finished product inventories of domestic tire factories, and only then can there be support for demand. At the same time, we must also pay attention to changes in port inventory. If it continues to decline, support for prices will gradually appear. Otherwise, arrivals in the port will pick up in the future and the inventory turning point will come, and the pressure on the supply side will be greater.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The logic of oil and gas switching may support winter oil demand.

The natural gas market has continued to perform strongly recently, considering that the current supply and demand situation may face even tighter shortages in the winter. Since oil and natural gas are both fossil energy sources, they are interchangeable in terminals such as power generation and heating. Therefore, if the whole world experiences a "gas shortage" in winter and natural gas prices continue to soar, the consumption of heating oil, fuel oil, kerosene and other petroleum products will be significantly boosted. At present, according to EA and other institutions, the increase in oil demand in winter under the logic of oil and gas switching is about 450,000 barrels/day. Of course, the actual amount will largely depend on the climate. There will be great differences in both the demand for natural gas and the substitution of oil consumption in cold winter and warm winter scenarios.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullsih, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: Taper is getting closer, with September employment data becoming the focus of attention.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market yesterday showed a different market situation from the insipid transactions last week. The downstream stocks were prepared on-demand around the price of 68,000 yuan/ton, and the market trading activity has picked up. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 200 yuan/ton, and the market did not hear of a large number of transactions. When some holders slightly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton, the source of goods at that price was bought out immediately when they entered the market. After the second trading session, the quotation returned to a premium of 200 yuan/ton. As domestic social inventories were still low, some holders even intend to raise the price to a premium of 210 yuan/ton, but the buying acceptance was not high. When High-Grade Copper holders heard that imported copper would gradually flow into the market, they took the initiative to cut prices and sell goods, making the price of High-Grade Copper that had been strong before the holiday quickly dropped. The price of High-Grade Copper in the morning market reached a premium of 420-450 yuan/ton. With the active price adjustment of some holders, the premium has already been reported to around 320-330 yuan/ton around 11 o'clock. Before the close of the morning session, the market had already quoted a premium of 300 yuan/ton, and the spread with Standard-Grade Copper quickly narrowed to around 100 yuan/ton. The quotations of Hydro Copper also highlighted differences. Some brands, such as ESOX, have quotations firmly above 100 yuan premium. However, some brands, such as MV and NORLISK, were quoting a premium of 80-90 yuan/ton to lead the market.

On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The dual control suppressed the terminal load, and the polyester load dropped again.

Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable, and the accumulating pressure in October will not be great. The Asian PX balance sheet was slightly destocked in September, and there was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in October-November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：粗钢压产稳步推进，铁矿石触底反弹

受假期期间海外铁矿石走势影响，昨日开盘铁矿大幅低开，首次来到成本区附近，午后随着双焦、钢材的上涨，铁矿成功逆袭，结束连续数日下跌。至收盘，铁矿石01合约收于699点，较前日上涨70点。现货方面，昨日钢联公布：澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2688.7万吨，环比增加109.2万吨；澳洲发运量1954万吨，环比增加105.6万吨；其中澳洲发往中国的量1610.8万吨，环比增加194.5万吨；巴西发运量734.7万吨，环比增加3.6万吨。全球铁矿石发运总量3308.4万吨，环比增加129.8万吨。9月13日-9月19日中国45港到港总量2209.7万吨，环比减少183.8万吨；北方六港到港总量为698.7万吨，环比减少611.7万吨。

整体来看，供应端，2021年全年铁矿石供给总量将稳定增加。消费端，中国的压产仍将稳步推进，压产时间提前至11月底完成，由此必然造成国内铁矿消费的进一步萎缩。全年展望，全球铁矿消费预计同比持平，铁矿供需矛盾将持续恶化，年度铁矿过剩量保守预估在3500万吨左右。更为关键的是2021年钢铁冶炼仍将受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费提升难以在短期内发生。趋势上铁矿石仍将继续下行，春节补库前，仍难看到铁矿的有效反弹。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多成材空铁矿石

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，台风天气影响，中秋国庆补库情况，疫情加重等

橡胶：需求偏弱，胶价大幅下挫

22号，RU主力收盘13300（-440）元/吨，混合胶报价11850元/吨（-275），主力合约基差-925元/吨（-60）；前二十主力多头持仓81271（+7175），空头持仓120158（+9858），净空持仓38887（+2683）。

22号，NR主力收盘价10805（-360）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1680（-52.5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1660美元/吨（-70），印尼标胶1665（-30）美元/吨。主力合约基差-34（+194）元/吨。

截至9月17日：交易所总库存236651（+4471），交易所仓单199850（+1380）。

原料：生胶片50.48（+0.37），杯胶45.3（+0.4），胶水48.5（+1.2），烟片52.88（+0.33）。

截止9月16日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.5%（+17.3%），国内半钢胎开工率为52.73%(+13.3%）。

观点：在假期外盘价格大幅下挫拖累下，昨天胶价重新回落。基本面来看，随着上周价格修复之后，基本反映完毕下游备货以及轮胎厂开工率的小幅回升。焦点重新回到供应端，国内原料价格以及气候配合带来供应持续释放，期货升水格局下，交易所库存持续回升。同时，近期国内指标胶的进入也使得供应回升，总体国内供应有所回升，叠加旺季，后期供应增加的预期较强。但从国内港口库存的持续下降，也反映供应暂时没有太大的压力。因此，短期价格或偏弱运行，但下方空间亦有限。后期重点关注国内轮胎厂成品库存实质下降，或才有需求的支撑。同时，还要关注港口库存变化，如果持续下降，则对于价格支撑也会逐步显现，否则后期到港回升，库存拐点来临，则供应端压力将较大。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：油气切换逻辑或支撑冬季石油需求

近期天然气市场持续表现强势，考虑到目前的供需形势在冬季可能面临更加紧缺的局面。由于石油和天然气同属化石能源，在发电、取暖等终端存在可替代性。因此，如果冬季全球整体经历“气荒”，天然气价格继续飙升，那么取暖油、燃料油、煤油等石油产品的消费将受到显著提振，目前根据EA等机构预测油气切换逻辑下冬季石油需求的增量大概在45万桶/天左右。当然，实际量将在很大程度上取决于气候，冷冬与暖冬情境下无论是天然气需求还是石油消费替代量均会存在很大的差异。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：Taper渐行渐近，9月就业数据成为关注重点

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场一改上周清淡成交，下游在68000元/吨附近按需备库，外加9月贸易长单仅剩最后3个交易日，市场交投活跃度有所回暖。早市平水铜始报于升水200元/吨后市场并未听闻大量成交，部分持货商小幅调价至升水180-190元/吨货源入市即秒，第二时段后报价重新回到升水200元/吨，由于国内社会库存依旧偏低，部分持货商甚至有意挺价至升水210元/吨，但买盘对此接受度不高。好铜持货商听闻后市将逐渐有进口铜流入，主动降价甩货，节前坚挺的好铜报价迅速回落，早市还报至升水420-450元/吨，随着部分持货商的主动调价，11点左右已然报至升水320-330元/吨附近，午市收盘前市场已然报至升水300元/吨，和平水铜价差迅速收窄至100元/吨左右。湿法铜报价也同样凸显差异性，部分品牌如ESOX报价坚挺于升水百元之上，但部分如MV，NORLISK等品牌报至升水80-90元/吨欲引领市场报价。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA:双控压制终端负荷，聚酯负荷再度下滑

平衡表展望：长丝检修持续背景下，PTA9月平衡表迎来首度累库拐点，但累库速率可控，10月在检修全兑现背景下无累库压力，供需两缩背景下PTA加工费压缩空间有限。亚洲PX平衡表9月小幅去库，10-11月小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间