Iron Ore: Crude steel production restrictions are steadily advancing, and iron ore has bottomed out.
Affected by the trend of overseas iron ore during the holiday, the iron ore opened sharply lower yesterday, coming near the cost zone for the first time. In the afternoon, with the rise of coking coal, coke and steel, iron ore successfully counterattacked and ended its decline for several consecutive days. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 699 points, an increase of 70 points from the previous day. In terms of spot, the Union of Steel announced yesterday: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 26.887 million tons, an increase of 1.092 million tons from the previous week; the shipment from Australia was 19.54 million tons, an increase of 1.056 million tons from the previous week. Among them, Australia shipped 16.108 million tons to China, an increase of 1.945 million tons from the previous week; Brazil shipped 7.347 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous week. Global iron ore shipments totaled 33.08 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.298 million tons. From September 13 to September 19, the total arrivals at 45 ports in China was 22.097 million tons, a decrease of 1.838 million tons from the previous week. The total arrivals at the six northern ports were 6.987 million tons, a decrease of 6.117 million tons from the previous week.
On the whole, on the supply side, the total iron ore supply in 2021 will increase steadily. On the consumer side, China's production restriction will continue to advance steadily, and the time limit for production restriction will be completed by the end of November, which will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. Looking forward to the whole year, global iron ore consumption is expected to be flat year-on-year, the contradiction between iron ore supply and demand will continue to deteriorate, and the annual iron ore surplus is conservatively estimated to be around 35 million tons. More critically, steel smelting in 2021 will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase in a short period of time. On the trend, iron ore will continue to decline. Before restocking during the Spring Festival, it is still difficult to see an effective rebound in iron ore.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option when the price hits high
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;
2. The impact of typhoon weather;
3. Inventory replenishment on Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
On September 22, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,300 (-440) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,850 (-275) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -925 yuan/ton (-60); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 81,271 (+7,175) lots, the short position was 120,158 (+9,858) lots, and the net short position was 38,887 (+2,683) lots.
On September 22, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,805 (-360) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,680 (-52.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,660 (-70) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,665 (-30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -34 (+194) yuan/ton.
As of September 17: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 236,651 (+4,471) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 199,850 (+1,380) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.48 (+0.37), cup lump 45.3 (+0.4), latex 48.5 (+1.2), RSS3 52.88 (+0.33).
As of September 16, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.5% (+17.3%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 52.73% (+13.3%).
Opinion: The price of rubber fell again yesterday, dragged down by the sharp drop in overseas market prices during the holidays. From a fundamental point of view, after the price restoration last week, it basically reflects the completion of downstream stocking and a slight rebound in tire factory operating rates. On the supply side, domestic raw material prices and climate impacts have brought about continuous supply release. Under the pattern of futures premiums, stocks on exchanges continued to rise. At the same time, the recent entry of domestic index rubber has also led to a rebound in supply, and overall domestic supply has rebounded. Coupled with the peak season, there is a strong expectation of an increase in supply in the future. However, the continued decline in inventory at domestic ports also reflects that there is not much pressure on supply for the time being. Therefore, short-term prices may be weak, but the downside is also limited. In the future, we will focus on the substantial decline in finished product inventories of domestic tire factories, and only then can there be support for demand. At the same time, we must also pay attention to changes in port inventory. If it continues to decline, support for prices will gradually appear. Otherwise, arrivals in the port will pick up in the future and the inventory turning point will come, and the pressure on the supply side will be greater.
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: The logic of oil and gas switching may support winter oil demand.
The natural gas market has continued to perform strongly recently, considering that the current supply and demand situation may face even tighter shortages in the winter. Since oil and natural gas are both fossil energy sources, they are interchangeable in terminals such as power generation and heating. Therefore, if the whole world experiences a "gas shortage" in winter and natural gas prices continue to soar, the consumption of heating oil, fuel oil, kerosene and other petroleum products will be significantly boosted. At present, according to EA and other institutions, the increase in oil demand in winter under the logic of oil and gas switching is about 450,000 barrels/day. Of course, the actual amount will largely depend on the climate. There will be great differences in both the demand for natural gas and the substitution of oil consumption in cold winter and warm winter scenarios.
Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullsih, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads
Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.
Copper: Taper is getting closer, with September employment data becoming the focus of attention.
Spot: According to SMM, the spot market yesterday showed a different market situation from the insipid transactions last week. The downstream stocks were prepared on-demand around the price of 68,000 yuan/ton, and the market trading activity has picked up. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 200 yuan/ton, and the market did not hear of a large number of transactions. When some holders slightly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton, the source of goods at that price was bought out immediately when they entered the market. After the second trading session, the quotation returned to a premium of 200 yuan/ton. As domestic social inventories were still low, some holders even intend to raise the price to a premium of 210 yuan/ton, but the buying acceptance was not high. When High-Grade Copper holders heard that imported copper would gradually flow into the market, they took the initiative to cut prices and sell goods, making the price of High-Grade Copper that had been strong before the holiday quickly dropped. The price of High-Grade Copper in the morning market reached a premium of 420-450 yuan/ton. With the active price adjustment of some holders, the premium has already been reported to around 320-330 yuan/ton around 11 o'clock. Before the close of the morning session, the market had already quoted a premium of 300 yuan/ton, and the spread with Standard-Grade Copper quickly narrowed to around 100 yuan/ton. The quotations of Hydro Copper also highlighted differences. Some brands, such as ESOX, have quotations firmly above 100 yuan premium. However, some brands, such as MV and NORLISK, were quoting a premium of 80-90 yuan/ton to lead the market.
On the macro level, the global central bank will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. However, the recent strengthening of the Fed’s taper expectations has led to a substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is not very beneficial to the overall non-ferrous metal sector, including copper. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, there is currently no situation in which copper has accumulated inventory immediately after entering the off-season. In the future, investors need to continue to pay attention to the emergence of inventory turning points.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: The dual control suppressed the terminal load, and the polyester load dropped again.
Balance sheet outlook: In the context of continuous filament maintenance, the PTA September balance sheet ushered in the first inflection point of the inventory accumulation, but the accumulation rate is controllable, and the accumulating pressure in October will not be great. The Asian PX balance sheet was slightly destocked in September, and there was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in October-November.
(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish;
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧