Iron Ore: Iron ore prices bottomed out and rebounded, rising due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment.

Yesterday, the iron ore opened strongly on the first day after the holiday. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 703 points, an increase of 24 yuan/ton or 3.53% from the previous day. In terms of spot, the spot price of imported iron ore at ports fluctuated up in the afternoon, with a cumulative increase of 5-40 throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 840-845, SSF 525-535; Caofeidian Port Newman high grade fine ore 860-865, mixed fines 615-620; Tianjin Port PB fines 845-850, mixed fines 615-625; Jiangnei Port PB fines 880 -900, PB block 960-970. (Unit: Yuan/WMT).

On the whole, on the supply side, the total iron ore supply in 2021 will increase steadily. On the consumer side, China's production reduction will continue to advance steadily, and the production reduction will be completed by the end of November, which will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. However, with the rapid decline of iron ore in September, the port inventory has not yet been accumulated, and the mainstream ores are still at a low level. Coupled with the demand for replenishment before the holiday, iron ore has rebounded significantly. However, considering the tightening of crude steel production restrictions in the fourth quarter, iron ore has limited room for upward rebound and will remain fluctuating at low levels.

Strategies: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when the price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. The impact of typhoon weather;

3. Inventory replenishment on Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Driven by the market sentiment, rubber prices ushered in a rebound.

On September 27, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,705 (+340) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -980 yuan/ton (-40); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 75,267 (-4,999) lots, the short position was 116,271 (-2,805) lots, and the net short position was 41,004 (-2,194) lots.

On September 27, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,180 (+370) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,715 (+22.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,705 (+35) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,695 (+30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -214 (-160) yuan/ton.

As of September 24: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 239,171 (+2,520) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 199,800 (-50) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 48.17 (0), cup lump 44 (-0.15), latex 44.1 (+0.1), RSS3 51.44 (+0.79).

As of September 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.76% (-2.74%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 52.57% (-0.16%).

Opinion: Under the domestic dual control measures, the price rebound caused by the limited supply of energy and chemical products has led to a rebound in rubber. Dual control has an impact on the upstream and downstream of rubber, but the weak downstream demand has been reflected in the previous price. Therefore, yesterday more reflected the influence of the supply side. The upstream rubber processing plant is an industry that does not consume a large proportion of electricity, so the overall impact may be relatively limited. More than that, after prices continued to fall last week, the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed further. When the domestic long holiday is approaching, the hedging force in the market is weakened, and raw materials and inventories are still supported, making prices rebound in demand. However, the supply and demand drive is weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Oil prices continue to rise, and there is a panic buying of gasoline in the UK.

Oil prices continue to rise, and the market continues to test OPEC’s upper limit of tolerance for oil prices under the expectation that natural gas spillover effects continue to amplify. The OPEC meeting will be held in early October. If the oil price exceeds 80 US dollars per barrel, it is not ruled out that OPEC may adjust its production increase plan, but Saudi Arabia has not yet made a relevant statement. In addition, further upward oil prices also test China's efforts to release reserves. Whether it will further increase the number of released reserves and non-bonded crude oil will be the focus of the market. In the current situation where natural gas prices continue to be high and the global energy crisis has not yet been falsified, oil prices will run on the strong side.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullsih, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: The fourth batch of national reserve release has been implemented, which is in line with market expectations.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, due to tight supply in the spot market yesterday, holders raised prices, leading to higher premiums and discounts. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 240-250 yuan/ton, and such supply of the quotation was immediately bought out when it entered the market. Upon seeing the situation, the holders raised their quotations to a premium of 260 yuan/ton, and the buying interest in the market remained unabated. Due to the scarcity of supply in the market, some holders directly quoted a premium of 300 yuan/ton to lead the market. After the second period of trading, a small amount of goods with a quotation of a premium of 310-320 yuan/ton were traded. The supply of High-Grade Copper was also tight. From the morning market’s quotation of a premium of 350 yuan/ton, the price was gradually adjusted to a premium of 400 yuan/ton. The market was even more difficult to find the source of Guixi Copper. A small number of holders raised the price to a premium of 500 yuan/ton, highlighting the reluctance to sell, but the overall transaction activity is not as good as that of Standard-Grade Copper. There are few registered brands in the Hydro Copper market, and the overall price reported a premium of 140-200 yuan/ton. At the end of the trading session, some holders wanted to quote a premium of more than 200 yuan/ton, but the buyers and sellers had large differences on the price, and the focus of downstream concentrated buying was shifted to the more cost-effective non-registered copper category.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The production and sales of filaments have increased, and the PTA processing fee has rebounded again.

Balance sheet outlook: In October, PTA will slightly de-inventory under the background of the full implementation of the overhaul; under the background of shrinking supply and demand, the PTA processing fee has limited space for compression. There was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in the Asian PX balance sheet from October to November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：铁矿触底反弹 节前补货上涨

昨日，铁矿石节后首日开盘强势上涨，至收盘铁矿石01合约收于703点，较前日上涨24元/吨，涨幅3.53%；现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货午后价格震荡上涨，全天累计上涨5-40。现青岛港PB粉840-845，超特粉525-535；曹妃甸港纽曼粉860-865，混合粉615-620；天津港PB粉845-850，混合粉615-625；江内港PB粉880-900，PB块960-970。（单位：元/湿吨）；基差方面，国内连铁对应的超特粉基差接近平水，基差较小。

整体来看，供应端，2021年全年铁矿石供给总量将稳定增加。消费端，中国的压产仍将稳步推进，压产时间提前至11月底完成，由此必然造成国内铁矿消费的进一步萎缩。但随着9月的铁矿快速下跌，港口库存还未出现累库，各主流矿依旧处于低位，加上节前补库需求，铁矿出现较明显反弹，不过考虑四季度粗钢压产任务趋严，铁矿向上反弹空间有限，将维持低位震荡。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多成材空铁矿石

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，台风天气影响，中秋国庆补库情况，疫情加重等

橡胶：氛围带动，胶价迎来反弹

27号，RU主力收盘13705（+340）元/吨，混合胶报价11900元/吨（-150），主力合约基差-980元/吨（-40）；前二十主力多头持仓75267（-4999），空头持仓116271（-2805），净空持仓41004（-2194）。

27号，NR主力收盘价11180（+370）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1715（+22.5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1705美元/吨（+35），印尼标胶1695（+30）美元/吨。主力合约基差-214（-160）元/吨。

截至9月24日：交易所总库存239171（+2520），交易所仓单199800（-50）。

原料：生胶片48.17（0），杯胶44（-0.15），胶水44.1（+0.1），烟片51.44（+0.79）。

截止9月23日，国内全钢胎开工率为55.76%（-2.74%），国内半钢胎开工率为52.57%(-0.16%）。

观点：在国内双控措施下，能化品供应端受限导致的价格反弹，带动橡胶一并反弹。双控对于橡胶上下游均有影响，但因下游需求的示弱已经在前期价格中有所反映，因此，昨天更多反映供应端的影响，橡胶上游加工厂属于耗电占比并不大的产业，因此总体影响或较为有限。更多是在上周价格继续下挫后，期现价差进一步缩窄，在国内长假来临之际，盘面套保力量减缓，而原料及库存仍有支撑，使得价格有反弹需求。但供需驱动偏弱，预计反弹空间受限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：油价继续上行，英国出现恐慌性抢购汽油

油价继续上行，在天然气外溢效应持续放大的预期之下，市场继续测试欧佩克对于油价上方的容忍上限，欧佩克会议将在十月初召开，如果油价突破80美元/桶，不排除欧佩克可能会调整其增产计划，但目前沙特尚未有相关表态，此外，油价进一步上行也测试中国抛储的力度，是否会在后期进一步增加抛储数量以及非保税原油将会是市场关注重点，在当前天然气价格持续高位，全球能源危机尚未证伪的情况下，油价将会偏强运行。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：第四批国储抛储落地，符合市场预期

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场由于货源偏紧，持货商纷纷挺价，升贴水再度一路走高。早市平水铜始报于升水240-250元/吨入市即秒，持货商见状纷纷上调报价至升水260元/吨后市场买兴不减，由于市场货源稀缺，部分持货商直接报至升水300元/吨引领市场，第二时段后甚至听闻少量升水310-320元/吨成交。好铜货源同样紧张，从早市升水350元/吨逐渐报至升水400元/吨，市场更是难觅贵溪铜货源，少量持货商挺价至升水500元/吨凸显惜售情绪，但整体成交活跃度不及平水铜。湿法铜也难闻大量注册品牌，整体报至升水140-200元/吨，尾盘听闻部分持货商欲报价至升水200元/吨之上，但买卖双方对价格分歧较大，下游的集中性买盘关注点转移至性价比较高的非注册铜类。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA:长丝产销放量，PTA加工费再度反弹

平衡表展望：PTA10月在检修全兑现背景下小幅去库，供需两缩背景下PTA加工费压缩空间有限。亚洲PX平衡表10-11月连续小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费反弹到位，暂观望。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间