Iron Ore: Iron ore prices bottomed out and rebounded, rising due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment.
Yesterday, the iron ore opened strongly on the first day after the holiday. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 703 points, an increase of 24 yuan/ton or 3.53% from the previous day. In terms of spot, the spot price of imported iron ore at ports fluctuated up in the afternoon, with a cumulative increase of 5-40 throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 840-845, SSF 525-535; Caofeidian Port Newman high grade fine ore 860-865, mixed fines 615-620; Tianjin Port PB fines 845-850, mixed fines 615-625; Jiangnei Port PB fines 880 -900, PB block 960-970. (Unit: Yuan/WMT).
On the whole, on the supply side, the total iron ore supply in 2021 will increase steadily. On the consumer side, China's production reduction will continue to advance steadily, and the production reduction will be completed by the end of November, which will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. However, with the rapid decline of iron ore in September, the port inventory has not yet been accumulated, and the mainstream ores are still at a low level. Coupled with the demand for replenishment before the holiday, iron ore has rebounded significantly. However, considering the tightening of crude steel production restrictions in the fourth quarter, iron ore has limited room for upward rebound and will remain fluctuating at low levels.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option when the price hits high
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;
2. The impact of typhoon weather;
3. Inventory replenishment on Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
Rubber: Driven by the market sentiment, rubber prices ushered in a rebound.
On September 27, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,705 (+340) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -980 yuan/ton (-40); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 75,267 (-4,999) lots, the short position was 116,271 (-2,805) lots, and the net short position was 41,004 (-2,194) lots.
On September 27, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,180 (+370) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,715 (+22.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,705 (+35) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,695 (+30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -214 (-160) yuan/ton.
As of September 24: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 239,171 (+2,520) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 199,800 (-50) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 48.17 (0), cup lump 44 (-0.15), latex 44.1 (+0.1), RSS3 51.44 (+0.79).
As of September 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.76% (-2.74%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 52.57% (-0.16%).
Opinion: Under the domestic dual control measures, the price rebound caused by the limited supply of energy and chemical products has led to a rebound in rubber. Dual control has an impact on the upstream and downstream of rubber, but the weak downstream demand has been reflected in the previous price. Therefore, yesterday more reflected the influence of the supply side. The upstream rubber processing plant is an industry that does not consume a large proportion of electricity, so the overall impact may be relatively limited. More than that, after prices continued to fall last week, the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed further. When the domestic long holiday is approaching, the hedging force in the market is weakened, and raw materials and inventories are still supported, making prices rebound in demand. However, the supply and demand drive is weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited.
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: Oil prices continue to rise, and there is a panic buying of gasoline in the UK.
Oil prices continue to rise, and the market continues to test OPEC’s upper limit of tolerance for oil prices under the expectation that natural gas spillover effects continue to amplify. The OPEC meeting will be held in early October. If the oil price exceeds 80 US dollars per barrel, it is not ruled out that OPEC may adjust its production increase plan, but Saudi Arabia has not yet made a relevant statement. In addition, further upward oil prices also test China's efforts to release reserves. Whether it will further increase the number of released reserves and non-bonded crude oil will be the focus of the market. In the current situation where natural gas prices continue to be high and the global energy crisis has not yet been falsified, oil prices will run on the strong side.
Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullsih, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads
Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.
Copper: The fourth batch of national reserve release has been implemented, which is in line with market expectations.
In terms of spot: According to SMM, due to tight supply in the spot market yesterday, holders raised prices, leading to higher premiums and discounts. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 240-250 yuan/ton, and such supply of the quotation was immediately bought out when it entered the market. Upon seeing the situation, the holders raised their quotations to a premium of 260 yuan/ton, and the buying interest in the market remained unabated. Due to the scarcity of supply in the market, some holders directly quoted a premium of 300 yuan/ton to lead the market. After the second period of trading, a small amount of goods with a quotation of a premium of 310-320 yuan/ton were traded. The supply of High-Grade Copper was also tight. From the morning market’s quotation of a premium of 350 yuan/ton, the price was gradually adjusted to a premium of 400 yuan/ton. The market was even more difficult to find the source of Guixi Copper. A small number of holders raised the price to a premium of 500 yuan/ton, highlighting the reluctance to sell, but the overall transaction activity is not as good as that of Standard-Grade Copper. There are few registered brands in the Hydro Copper market, and the overall price reported a premium of 140-200 yuan/ton. At the end of the trading session, some holders wanted to quote a premium of more than 200 yuan/ton, but the buyers and sellers had large differences on the price, and the focus of downstream concentrated buying was shifted to the more cost-effective non-registered copper category.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: The production and sales of filaments have increased, and the PTA processing fee has rebounded again.
Balance sheet outlook: In October, PTA will slightly de-inventory under the background of the full implementation of the overhaul; under the background of shrinking supply and demand, the PTA processing fee has limited space for compression. There was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in the Asian PX balance sheet from October to November.
(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧