Iron Ore: Iron ore rushed higher and fell back, continuing to oscillate at a low level.

Yesterday, due to the double impact of stricter production restrictions by steel mills in some areas and the return of port stocks to a substantial accumulation situation, iron ore rose and fell. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 678 points, down 25 yuan/ton or 3.56% from the previous day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Qingdao Port fluctuated in the afternoon, with a cumulative drop of 20-30 throughout the day. The PB fines reported 810-820, SSF 500-505, and Yangdi Fines 680-690. (Unit: Yuan/WMT), Mysteel62% iron ore index 112.55 fell 5.45, with a monthly average of 117.7; 65% iron ore index fell 6.1, with a monthly average of 142.15 (unit: USD/DMT). A total of 840,000 tons of iron ore in main ports nationwide were traded, a decrease of 9.8% from the previous month.

On the whole, on the supply side, the total iron ore supply in 2021 will increase steadily. On the consumer side, China's production reduction will continue to advance steadily, and the production reduction will be completed by the end of November, which will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. However, with the rapid decline of iron ore in September, the port inventory has not yet been accumulated, and the mainstream ores are still at a low level. Coupled with the demand for replenishment before the holiday, iron ore has rebounded significantly. However, considering the tightening of crude steel production restrictions in the fourth quarter, iron ore has limited room for upward rebound and will remain fluctuating at low levels.

Strategies: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when the price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. The impact of typhoon weather;

3. Inventory replenishment on Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Port inventory continues to be destocked.

On September 28, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,840 (+135) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,175 (-25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -965 yuan/ton (+15); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 73,374 (-1,893) lots, the short position was 113,435 (-2,836) lots, and the net short position was 40,061 (-943) lots.

On September 28, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,280 (+100) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,715 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,695 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -329 (-115) yuan/ton.

As of September 24: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 239,171 (+2,520) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 199,800 (-50) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 49.77 (+1.6), cup lump 44.7 (+0.6), latex 47 (+0.5), RSS3 52.16 (+0.72).

As of September 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.76% (-2.74%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 52.57% (-0.16%).

Opinion: The price of rubber continued to be strong yesterday, and the latest domestic port inventory announced continued to decline, mainly due to the lack of arrivals. Under the continuous influence of rainfall, Thailand's raw materials have rebounded recently, which has strong support for rubber. In the previous period of price decline, it may periodically reflect the bearishness at the demand side. At present, driven by the overall warm market sentiment, rubber prices may more reflect the tight spot prices brought about by the current domestic logistics lag. However, the supply and demand drive is weak, and the rebound is expected to be limited.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API oil inventories increased more than expected.

The current oil price is running to a critical point. On the one hand, inflationary pressures brought about by rising oil prices have become more pronounced. Especially for major consumer countries like China and the United States, the demand for OPEC's production increase is becoming stronger. In the context of the hopeless return of Iranian oil and the global energy crisis, OPEC's expectations of appropriately liberalizing its production rhythm are also increasing. OPEC originally planned to increase production by 1.5 million barrels per day from October to December. It is not ruled out that OPEC will increase its output to 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day at the October meeting. On the other hand, the oil price of US$80/barrel will trigger the ceiling price of China's refined oil price adjustment mechanism. The price of refined oil products will be adjusted less or unadjusted, and the profit of refineries will begin to be deducted, and the pressure on China's refineries will increase day by day. Coupled with the recent release of reserves, China's crude oil buying interest will be suppressed, and the negative feedback of oil prices on supply and demand will increase significantly from the price level of 80 US dollars per barrel.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullsih, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.

Copper: Weak domestic consumption drags down premiums and discounts.

Spot: According to SMM news, the premiums and discounts of the spot market have fallen precipitously. Under the pre-holiday risk-averse mood, holders have dumped their goods in exchange for spot, but there was basically no buying in the market, and there were few inquirers. Yesterday's morning market, the quotation of the next month contract began to report a premium of 200-250 yuan/ton, but there was no inquirer in the market. Subsequently, some holders quickly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 180-200 yuan/ton due to the demand for spot exchange, but there were still few buying orders in the market. At around 10 o'clock, the market gradually appeared a supply with a quotation of a premium of 150-170 yuan/ton flowing out, but after the second period, the market gradually flowed out a supply of a quotation of a premium of 120-140 yuan/ton, but still can't bring up the market buying interest. The quotation of High-Grade Copper had also been lowered all the way along with Standard-Grade Copper, from the price of a premium of 300 yuan/ton in the morning market to a premium of 180 yuan/ton. The transaction price was concentrated at a premium of 180-250 yuan/ton. Even Guixi Copper heard that some transactions were concentrated at a premium of 200 yuan/ton. Hydro-Copper was relatively scarce due to the relative scarcity of supply. The quotations of some brands was even hard to see the spread with Standard-Grade Copper, and the overall price was quoted at a premium of 80-120 yuan/ton. When it was difficult to see a large amount of just-needed stockpile demand in the downstream, buyers and sellers have large differences on prices.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: PX processing fees fell on the left side, narrowing PTA gains.

Balance sheet outlook: In October, PTA will slightly de-inventory under the background of the full implementation of the overhaul; under the background of shrinking supply and demand, the PTA processing fee has limited space for compression. There was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in the Asian PX balance sheet from October to November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：铁矿冲高回落，继续低位震荡

昨日，受到部分地区钢厂限产加严，以及港口库存重回大幅累库态势的双重影响。铁矿石冲高回落，至收盘铁矿石01合约收于678点，较前日下跌25元/吨，跌幅3.56%；现货方面，青岛港进口铁矿午后价格震荡运行，全天累计下跌20-30。现PB粉810-820，超特粉500-505，杨迪粉680-690。（单位：元/湿吨 )， Mysteel62%铁矿石指数112.55跌5.45，月均117.7；65%铁矿石指数136.95跌6.1，月均142.15（单位：美元/干吨）。全国主港铁矿累计成交84万吨，环比下降9.8%；基差方面，国内连铁对应的超特粉基差接近平水，基差较小。

整体来看，供应端，2021年全年铁矿石供给总量将稳定增加。消费端，中国的压产仍将稳步推进，压产时间提前至11月底完成，由此必然造成国内铁矿消费的进一步萎缩。但随着9月的铁矿快速下跌，港口库存还未出现累库，各主流矿依旧处于低位，加上节前补库需求，铁矿出现较明显反弹，不过考虑四季度粗钢压产任务趋严，铁矿向上反弹空间有限，将维持低位震荡。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多成材空铁矿石

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，台风天气影响，中秋国庆补库情况，疫情加重等

橡胶：港口库存延续去化

28号，RU主力收盘13840（+135）元/吨，混合胶报价12175元/吨（-25），主力合约基差-965元/吨（+15）；前二十主力多头持仓73374（-1893），空头持仓113435（-2836），净空持仓40061（-943）。

28号，NR主力收盘价11280（+100）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1715（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1705美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1695（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-329（-115）元/吨。

截至9月24日：交易所总库存239171（+2520），交易所仓单199800（-50）。

原料：生胶片49.77（+1.6），杯胶44.7（+0.6），胶水47（+0.5），烟片52.16（+0.72）。

截止9月23日，国内全钢胎开工率为55.76%（-2.74%），国内半钢胎开工率为52.57%(-0.16%）。

观点：昨天胶价延续强势，公布的最新国内港口库存继续下降，主要是到港偏少导致的。在降雨持续影响下，近期泰国原料重新反弹，对于橡胶下方有较强的支撑。在前期价格下行中，或阶段性的反映了需求端的利空，目前在市场氛围总体偏暖带动下，橡胶价格或更多反映当下国内物流滞后带来的现货价格偏紧的局面。但供需驱动偏弱，预计反弹空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API石油库存增幅超预期

当前油价运行至关键点位，一方面油价上涨带来的通胀压力更加显著，尤其是对于中美主要消费国而言，对欧佩克增产的诉求也愈发强烈，而在伊朗石油回归无望叠加全球能源危机的背景下，欧佩克适当放开生产节奏的预期也在增加，原计划在10至12月增产150万桶/日，不排除欧佩克会在10月的会议上将增产力度增加至200~250万桶/日，另一方面，80美元/桶的油价将触发中国成品油调价机制的天花板价，成品油价格将少调或不调，并开始扣减炼厂利润，中国炼厂的压力与日俱增，叠加近期的抛储，中国的原油买兴将会受到抑制，油价对于供需的负反馈将从80美元/桶开始显著增加。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：飓风影响不及预期

铜：国内消费疲软拖累升贴水

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场升贴水呈现断崖式下跌，节前避险情绪下持货商纷纷踩踏式甩货换现，但市场基本难闻买盘，询价者寥寥。昨日早市对下月票报价始报于升水200-250元/吨之间，但市场毫无询价者，部分持货商换现需求下迅速调价至升水180-200元/吨依旧难闻买盘入市采买，10点左右市场便逐渐听闻升水150-170元/吨货源流出，但第二时段后市场逐渐流出升水120-140元/吨货源依旧不能提起市场买兴。好铜报价也跟随平水铜随波逐流一路下调，从早市升水300元/吨逐渐报至升水180元/吨，成交价集中于升水180-250元/吨之间，即使贵溪铜也听闻部分成交集中于升水200元/吨。湿法铜则由于货源相对稀缺，部分品牌报价甚至和平水铜难见价差，整体报至升水80-120元/吨，在下游难见大量刚需备库需求的情况下，买卖双方对价格分歧较大。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA:PX加工费左侧下滑，缩窄PTA涨幅

平衡表展望：PTA10月在检修全兑现背景下小幅去库，供需两缩背景下PTA加工费压缩空间有限。亚洲PX平衡表10-11月连续小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费反弹到位，暂观望。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间