Iron Ore: Iron ore rushed higher and fell back, continuing to oscillate at a low level.
Yesterday, due to the double impact of stricter production restrictions by steel mills in some areas and the return of port stocks to a substantial accumulation situation, iron ore rose and fell. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 678 points, down 25 yuan/ton or 3.56% from the previous day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Qingdao Port fluctuated in the afternoon, with a cumulative drop of 20-30 throughout the day. The PB fines reported 810-820, SSF 500-505, and Yangdi Fines 680-690. (Unit: Yuan/WMT), Mysteel62% iron ore index 112.55 fell 5.45, with a monthly average of 117.7; 65% iron ore index fell 6.1, with a monthly average of 142.15 (unit: USD/DMT). A total of 840,000 tons of iron ore in main ports nationwide were traded, a decrease of 9.8% from the previous month.
On the whole, on the supply side, the total iron ore supply in 2021 will increase steadily. On the consumer side, China's production reduction will continue to advance steadily, and the production reduction will be completed by the end of November, which will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. However, with the rapid decline of iron ore in September, the port inventory has not yet been accumulated, and the mainstream ores are still at a low level. Coupled with the demand for replenishment before the holiday, iron ore has rebounded significantly. However, considering the tightening of crude steel production restrictions in the fourth quarter, iron ore has limited room for upward rebound and will remain fluctuating at low levels.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Options: buying a put option when the price hits high
Concerns and risks:
1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;
2. The impact of typhoon weather;
3. Inventory replenishment on Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day;
4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.
Rubber: Port inventory continues to be destocked.
On September 28, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,840 (+135) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,175 (-25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -965 yuan/ton (+15); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 73,374 (-1,893) lots, the short position was 113,435 (-2,836) lots, and the net short position was 40,061 (-943) lots.
On September 28, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,280 (+100) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,715 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,695 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -329 (-115) yuan/ton.
As of September 24: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 239,171 (+2,520) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 199,800 (-50) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 49.77 (+1.6), cup lump 44.7 (+0.6), latex 47 (+0.5), RSS3 52.16 (+0.72).
As of September 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.76% (-2.74%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 52.57% (-0.16%).
Opinion: The price of rubber continued to be strong yesterday, and the latest domestic port inventory announced continued to decline, mainly due to the lack of arrivals. Under the continuous influence of rainfall, Thailand's raw materials have rebounded recently, which has strong support for rubber. In the previous period of price decline, it may periodically reflect the bearishness at the demand side. At present, driven by the overall warm market sentiment, rubber prices may more reflect the tight spot prices brought about by the current domestic logistics lag. However, the supply and demand drive is weak, and the rebound is expected to be limited.
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: API oil inventories increased more than expected.
The current oil price is running to a critical point. On the one hand, inflationary pressures brought about by rising oil prices have become more pronounced. Especially for major consumer countries like China and the United States, the demand for OPEC's production increase is becoming stronger. In the context of the hopeless return of Iranian oil and the global energy crisis, OPEC's expectations of appropriately liberalizing its production rhythm are also increasing. OPEC originally planned to increase production by 1.5 million barrels per day from October to December. It is not ruled out that OPEC will increase its output to 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day at the October meeting. On the other hand, the oil price of US$80/barrel will trigger the ceiling price of China's refined oil price adjustment mechanism. The price of refined oil products will be adjusted less or unadjusted, and the profit of refineries will begin to be deducted, and the pressure on China's refineries will increase day by day. Coupled with the recent release of reserves, China's crude oil buying interest will be suppressed, and the negative feedback of oil prices on supply and demand will increase significantly from the price level of 80 US dollars per barrel.
Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullsih, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads
Risk: The impact of the hurricane was less than expected.
Copper: Weak domestic consumption drags down premiums and discounts.
Spot: According to SMM news, the premiums and discounts of the spot market have fallen precipitously. Under the pre-holiday risk-averse mood, holders have dumped their goods in exchange for spot, but there was basically no buying in the market, and there were few inquirers. Yesterday's morning market, the quotation of the next month contract began to report a premium of 200-250 yuan/ton, but there was no inquirer in the market. Subsequently, some holders quickly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 180-200 yuan/ton due to the demand for spot exchange, but there were still few buying orders in the market. At around 10 o'clock, the market gradually appeared a supply with a quotation of a premium of 150-170 yuan/ton flowing out, but after the second period, the market gradually flowed out a supply of a quotation of a premium of 120-140 yuan/ton, but still can't bring up the market buying interest. The quotation of High-Grade Copper had also been lowered all the way along with Standard-Grade Copper, from the price of a premium of 300 yuan/ton in the morning market to a premium of 180 yuan/ton. The transaction price was concentrated at a premium of 180-250 yuan/ton. Even Guixi Copper heard that some transactions were concentrated at a premium of 200 yuan/ton. Hydro-Copper was relatively scarce due to the relative scarcity of supply. The quotations of some brands was even hard to see the spread with Standard-Grade Copper, and the overall price was quoted at a premium of 80-120 yuan/ton. When it was difficult to see a large amount of just-needed stockpile demand in the downstream, buyers and sellers have large differences on prices.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: PX processing fees fell on the left side, narrowing PTA gains.
Balance sheet outlook: In October, PTA will slightly de-inventory under the background of the full implementation of the overhaul; under the background of shrinking supply and demand, the PTA processing fee has limited space for compression. There was a slight inventory accumulation expectation in the Asian PX balance sheet from October to November.
(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
昨日，受到部分地区钢厂限产加严，以及港口库存重回大幅累库态势的双重影响。铁矿石冲高回落，至收盘铁矿石01合约收于678点，较前日下跌25元/吨，跌幅3.56%；现货方面，青岛港进口铁矿午后价格震荡运行，全天累计下跌20-30。现PB粉810-820，超特粉500-505，杨迪粉680-690。（单位：元/湿吨 )， Mysteel62%铁矿石指数112.55跌5.45，月均117.7；65%铁矿石指数136.95跌6.1，月均142.15（单位：美元/干吨）。全国主港铁矿累计成交84万吨，环比下降9.8%；基差方面，国内连铁对应的超特粉基差接近平水，基差较小。
策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧