Iron Ore: The overseas transactions were insipid, and the seaborne prices increased.

In terms of spot, there was basically no transaction in port spot during the National Day. There was no outstanding performance in overseas markets during the holidays, and overseas swaps were in a state of narrow fluctuations. The market is optimistic about replenishment of stocks by steel mills after the holiday, but long-term expectations are still fluctuating, and confidence in the strengthening of iron ore is weak. Although the spot market for iron ore during holidays is relatively insipid, and ocean freight rates have continued to rise. As of October 6, the C3 freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao, China rose from approximately US$45.4/ton before the holiday to approximately US$49.5/ton, an increase of approximately 9.03%. The C5 freight rate from Port Hedland, Australia to Qingdao, China rose from US$22.5/ton to US$23.5/ton, an increase of about 4.44%.

On the whole, on the supply side, the total iron ore supply in 2021 will increase steadily. On the consumer side, China's production reduction will continue to advance steadily, and the production reduction will be completed by the end of November, which will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. After a substantial and effective drop in iron ore prices, the marginal supply has basically been suppressed. However, the sea freight rate has risen sharply recently, which has also increased the landed price. Mainstream ores are still at a low level, coupled with pre-holiday replenishment of inventory requirements, iron ore rebounded significantly. However, considering the tightening of crude steel production restrictions in the fourth quarter, iron ore has limited room for upward rebound and will remain fluctuating at low levels.

Strategies: None

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when the price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. The impact of typhoon weather;

3. Inventory replenishment on National Day;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Spot stocks are tight, and futures prices fluctuate strongly.

On September 30, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,190 (+375) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,275 (+100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -915 yuan/ton (-25); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 71,788 (+331) lots, the short position was 109,702 (-168) lots, and the net short position was 37,914 (-499) lots.

On September 30, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,390 (+250) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,725 (+10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,720 (+15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,705 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -332 (-152) yuan/ton.

As of September 30: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 243,281 (+4,110) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 201,700 (+1,900) tons.

Raw materials: As of September 30, Sheet rubber 49.90 (0), cup lump 45.75 (+0.5), latex 49.3 (+1), RSS3 52.72 (+0.19).

As of September 30, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 53.86% (-1.9%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 50.06% (-2.5%).

Opinion: During the National Day holiday, the price of Japanese rubber fluctuated and rose by less than 3%. At the moment when the market focuses on supply, it may indicate that the supply side has not changed significantly during the holiday period. During the holiday period, domestic heavy-duty truck sales data for September continued to be weak. In September, the sales volume of heavy trucks is expected to be around 60,000, up 17% month-on-month and down 60% year-on-year, setting a new low for the same period in the past five years. This is mainly related to the domestic economic downturn and the real estate downturn. Before the holiday, domestic market prices were firm, mainly due to the exit of arbitrage orders and the basic reflection of bearish demand of the market. Judging from the current fundamentals, it is difficult to see the market conditions in the same period last year. Mainly because the domestic demand is lower than the same period last year, and the supply side does not have the same conditions as the same period last year. Although the domestic spot is relatively tight at present, due to the declining demand for thick latex and the normal release of domestic raw materials, it is difficult for RU warehouse receipts to appear tight. Entering October, due to the peak season for overseas snow tires, the operating rate of domestic tire factories is expected to rebound again. However, there are still rains in major producing areas such as Thailand, and it is expected that short-term supply will not be released in large quantities. Coupled with the impact of logistics delays, it is expected that the domestic spot supply tight situation can be maintained. Therefore, the rubber price is expected to rebound in October, but it is difficult to have a sustained rise in the market. It is recommended to treat it with caution.

Strategy: cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: OPEC maintained its production increase plan unchanged, and oil price fluctuations increased.

OPEC maintained its original plan at the October 4 meeting and did not further increase production. From the perspective of OPEC's behavior, it does not want to maintain the price ceiling. On the contrary, OPEC still hopes to maximize short-term benefits, that is, rising oil prices will increase oil revenue. However, in the medium to long term, this will stimulate the development of new energy sources and accelerate the resumption of U.S. shale oil production. However, OPEC chose the former between short-term benefits and long-term benefits, which made the price elasticity of oil supply very limited during the year. On the other hand, the inflationary pressure brought about by rising oil prices cannot be ignored, especially in the United States and China, the world's largest oil consumers. The United States said it still has many countermeasures, including measures such as releasing strategic reserves and banning crude oil exports. In addition, the current energy crisis situation may also speed up the process of Iran's nuclear talks. For China, it may further release strategic reserves or reduce import quotas to curb imports. We believe that after the oil price breaks through US$80/barrel, the resistance of consumer countries will become more intense, which will allow the oil market to enter a stage of fundamental and policy game, and the volatility will increase significantly.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullsih, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: Iranian oil returned to the market earlier than expected.

PTA: Pre-holiday polyester yarn inventory pressure eased, and PX rose slightly during holidays.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA is still expected to accumulate inventory from October to November under the background of implementation of overhaul; the Asian PX balance sheet is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly from October to November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：海外成交冷清，海运价格上涨

现货方面，国庆期间港口现货基本无成交，假期期间外盘表现平平，海外掉期则属于窄幅波动状态，市场对节后钢厂补库偏乐观，但长期还是震荡，对于铁矿走强信心偏弱。虽然铁矿假期现货市场较为冷清，但是干散货海运市场却一直自延续节前的火热状态，海运运费呈现继续上涨的趋势。截止到10月6号，巴西图巴朗至中国青岛C3运费从节前约45.4美元/吨上涨至约49.5美元/吨，涨幅约9.03%；澳洲黑德兰港至中国青岛C5运费从22.5美元/吨涨至23.5美元/吨，涨幅约4.44%。

整体来看，供应端，2021年全年铁矿石供给总量将稳定增加。消费端，中国的压产仍将稳步推进，压产时间提前至11月底完成，由此必然造成国内铁矿消费的进一步萎缩。铁矿价格经过大幅有效的下跌，基本实现了对边际供给的抑制。但近期海运运费大幅上涨，也增加了到岸的价格，各主流矿依旧处于低位，加上节前补库需求，铁矿出现较明显反弹，不过考虑四季度粗钢压产任务趋严，铁矿向上反弹空间有限，将维持低位震荡。

策略：

单边：中性

跨期：无

跨品种：多成材空铁矿石

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，台风天气影响，国庆补库情况，疫情加重等

橡胶：现货偏紧，期价偏强震荡

30号，RU主力收盘14190（+375）元/吨，混合胶报价12275元/吨（+100），主力合约基差-915元/吨（-25）；前二十主力多头持仓71788（+331），空头持仓109702（-168），净空持仓37914（-499）。

30号，NR主力收盘价11390（+250）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1725（+10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1720美元/吨（+15），印尼标胶1705（+10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-332（-152）元/吨。

截至9月30日：交易所总库存243281（+4110），交易所仓单201700（+1900）。

原料：截至9月30日，生胶片49.90（0），杯胶45.75（+0.5），胶水49.3（+1），烟片52.72（+0.19）。

截止9月30日，国内全钢胎开工率为53.86%（-1.9%），国内半钢胎开工率为50.06%(-2.5%）。

观点：国庆假期期间，日胶价格震荡上扬，涨幅不到3%，在当下市场聚焦于供应之际，或说明假期期间供应端并没有明显变化。假期期间国内公布的9月重卡销售数据继续示弱，9月预计重卡销量在6万辆左右，环比回升17%，同比下降60%，创近五年同期新低，这主要跟国内经济下行以及房地产低迷相关。假期前国内盘面价格坚挺，主要跟套利盘的离场以及需求利空在盘面基本反映有关。从目前基本面来看，较难出现去年同期的行情，主要因国内需求不及去年同期，且供应端也不存在去年同期的条件，目前尽管国内现货相对偏紧，但因浓乳胶需求的下滑以及国内原料释放正常，RU仓单难以出现紧张局面。步入10月，因海外雪地胎的旺季，国内轮胎厂开工率有望重新回升，而泰国等主产区依然有降雨，预计短期供应难以大量释放，叠加物流延后的影响，预计国内现货供应紧张局面可以维持，因此，10月胶价有望反弹，但难有持续性上涨行情，建议谨慎对待。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：欧佩克维持增产节奏不变，油价波动加大

欧佩克在10月4号的会议上维持原计划不变，并未进一步增加产量，从欧佩克的行为来看并不想维护价格上限，相反欧佩克仍然希望短期利益最大化，即油价上涨带来石油收入增加，但中长期来看这会刺激新能源发展并让美国页岩油加快复产，但欧佩克在短期利益和长期利益之间选择了前者，这使得年内石油供应的价格弹性非常有限，但另一方面，油价上涨带来的通胀压力不可忽视，尤其是全球最大的石油消费国美国和中国，美国表示自己仍有较多的牌可以打，包括释放战略储备、禁止原油出口等措施，另外目前的能源危机局势也可能加快伊朗核谈进程，对于中国方面，可能通过进一步释放战略储备或者削减进口配额的方式来抑制进口，我们认为油价突破80美元/桶之后消费国的抵抗将会更加剧烈，从而让石油市场进入到一个基本面与政策博弈的阶段，波动率将会显著加大。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多美国馏分油裂解价差

风险：伊朗石油重返市场早于预期

PTA:节前涤丝库存压力缓解，假期PX小幅上涨

平衡表展望：PTA10-11月在检修全兑现背景下仍是累库预期；亚洲PX平衡表10-11月连续小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费反弹到位，暂观望。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间