Iron Ore: After a rapid decline, iron ore rebounded slightly, maintaining a low-level shock pattern.

Since September, the contract price of iron ore 01 fell rapidly from 800 yuan/ton to the lowest of 606 yuan/ton, and finally rebounded slightly at the end of the month to close at 721.5 yuan/ton. With the steady implementation of the national crude steel production restriction policy in September, the output of molten iron continued to decline. At the same time, the downstream steel consumption is in the off-season, coupled with the national typhoon and heavy rain, aggravated the weak performance of the consumption of building materials. Affected by the National Day holiday at the end of the month, steel mills have a rigid demand for restocking, which caused iron ore prices to rebound to a certain extent after a sharp drop. In terms of spot, as of September 30, the Mysteel iron ore forward spot price index was 116.5 US dollars/DMT, down 35.1 US dollars/DMT from the beginning of the month, or 23.2%. The 62% Australian fine ore port spot price index was 860.0 yuan/WT, down 218.0 yuan/ WT from the beginning of the month, or 20.2%.

On the supply side, the shipment of imported iron ore in September rebounded from the previous period. The global average monthly iron ore shipment totaled 32.22 million tons, an average monthly increase of 970,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, due to the completion of overhauls in Australia, the supply has increased significantly from the previous month. The average monthly shipment in September was 18.75 million tons, an increase of 1.54 million tons from the previous month, reaching the second highest since the beginning of this year. In addition, shipments of non-mainstream countries other than Australia and Brazil have fallen due to the epidemic and China's demand reduction. The overall iron ore supply is expected to see a significant improvement from the previous month. However, the domestic iron ore concentrates are affected by the safety production, and the domestic mines are expected to resume production step by step, but it is difficult to cause too much disturbance to the overall domestic supply.

On the demand side, China's production restriction policy steadily advanced in September, resulting in a continuous decline in molten iron output. As of September 30, according to a sample of 247 steel mills calculated by Mysteel, the total output of molten iron in September fell 4.87 million tons from the previous month to 66.21 million tons. Considering that the production limit timeline will be completed in advance to the end of November, this will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. More importantly, in the future, steel smelting will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase.

On the inventory side, the total amount of imported iron ore arrivals at ports in September fell back from the previous month. As of September 30, according to Mysteel's 45 ports data, the total port inventory was 13.32166 million tons, an increase of 4.65 million tons month-on-month. From June to September, iron ore inventories have substantially accumulated about 8 million tons. In September, the stocks of 247 steel imported iron ore nationwide continued to decline. Although there was a wave of replenishment before the National Day, the overall position remained low.

On the whole, the national crude steel production limit policy is steadily advancing, and companies are required to complete the reduction task by November, resulting in a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. Coupled with the continued high inventory of imported iron ore, the pattern of oversupply of iron ore has continued. However, the recent sharp increase in ocean freight has also increased the landed cost of iron ore. However, there is little room for iron ore prices to rise under the general trend. It is expected that there will be a slight fluctuation in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude.

Strategies:

Unilateral: None

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy;

2. The risk of rising ocean freight.

Rubber: There is no pressure on supply for the time being, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly.

Due to the peak season, the price of rubber raw materials in October will maintain a volatile and weak trend. However, from the rain pattern in Thailand, it is expected that October is still in the rainy season, and the end of October may usher in a period of less rain. At that time, the raw materials may be released in large quantities. After all, the current raw material prices are still in the middle position and are not significantly underestimated. Therefore, it may be difficult to see a sharp decline in raw material prices in October.

We believe that October will usher in the continued destocking of domestic dark rubber stocks. But the biggest risk of demand lies in the impact of domestic dual control on tire production. If the tire operating rate continues to be suppressed, it is not conducive to the stabilization of raw material prices. The destocking of dark rubber will also end, but we still need to see the arrivals at ports to re-accumulate the inventory. As for the light-colored rubber, due to the continuous increase in domestic production, the inventory will continue to rise.

Due to the arrival of the peak season for rubber delivery at home and abroad, domestic supply has continued to increase, but overseas major production areas such as Thailand have not yet completely ended the rain in October, and it is expected that production will not rebound sharply. The logistics disruption caused by the increase in domestic sea freight and the epidemic in Southeast Asia may still not be effectively improved in October. Therefore, the pace of domestic arrivals at ports are still relatively slow, and the transmission of overseas supply in the peak season will be delayed. Therefore, the domestic supply pressure in October is temporarily no. Demand is weak and stable, and the worst moment has passed. Therefore, we believe that in the absence of significant supply pressure, the October rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to take a bullish thinking.

Strategy: cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The recovery of traditional transportation consumption is slowing down, and attention is paid to the alternative consumption of natural gas.

We believe that the uncertainty in the crude oil market in the fourth quarter has increased significantly, and market volatility will become more intense, mainly reflected in: 1. Uncertainty in natural gas spillover effects. There is no clear answer to how much the demand for natural gas substitution can boost the recovery of crude oil consumption. The market estimate has a wide range, ranging from 500,000 barrels/day to 2 million barrels/day, depending on the relationship between oil and gas prices and the physical bottleneck of the facility. Taking into account the 1 to 1.5 million barrels/day gap in the crude oil market itself in the fourth quarter, there is no doubt that the balance sheet gap in the fourth quarter will continue to rise if OPEC does not increase production. This means that the rate of destocking of crude oil inventories will accelerate in the fourth quarter. Considering that the current global oil inventory is already at a 5-year low level, the impact of natural gas substitution demand on oil prices will be even more significant. 2. How China and the United States use strategic reserve stocks, including the timing and quantity of release. The use of strategic reserve stocks will significantly ease the current supply and demand gap. This is also a process of policy and market game. For example, although China released the first batch of strategic reserves of crude oil, the price of oil rose instead of falling, mainly because the form and quantity of the issuance fell short of expectations. The market does not seem to be worried about China's selling of strategic reserves, but the US release of reserves is not within market expectations, which is also an important reason for the sharp fluctuations in oil prices during the National Day. If the United States starts to dump reserves significantly, it will have a significant impact on oil prices. 3. The uncertainty of temperature this winter. Since the beginning of this year, the global abnormal weather has increased significantly, extreme cold and high temperature have alternated, and heavy rains and droughts have also occurred frequently around the world, which makes it more difficult to predict the temperature this winter. If the extremely cold weather similar to last year occurs again this winter, it is expected to boost the energy varieties including heating oil again, which will become another fuse to detonate oil prices.

We believe that oil prices remained high in the fourth quarter, and prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. There are still many stories to tell in areas such as natural gas substitution demand and extreme weather. At the same time, under the background of limited supply of shale oil in OPEC and the United States during the year, the supply of crude oil is inelastic, and the driving force of supply and demand is still strong. In the oil sector, thanks to the boost in consumption substitution, heating and other fields, we expect diesel, LPG and fuel oil to remain relatively strong varieties in the sector.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The United States may substantially release its strategic crude oil reserves.

PTA: The dual control dragged down the polyester operating rate, while the upstream PX fell on the left.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA is still expected to accumulate inventory from October to November under the background of implementation of overhaul; the Asian PX balance sheet is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly from October to November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：铁矿快速下跌反弹，维持低位震荡格局

9月份以来，铁矿01合约从800元/吨加速下跌到最低606元/吨，最后月末小幅反弹收于721.5元/吨，随着9月全国粗钢压产政策稳步实施，铁水产量持续下降，同时下游钢材消费正值淡季，加之全国的台风和暴雨，加剧了建材的消费弱势表现，月末受国庆长假影响，钢厂有补库刚需，使得铁矿价格大幅下跌后有一定反弹。现货方面，截止09月30日，Mysteel铁矿石远期现货价格指数116.5美元/干吨，环比月初下跌35.1美元/干吨，跌幅23.2%；62%澳洲粉矿港口现货价格指数860.0元/湿吨，环比月初下跌218.0元/湿吨，跌幅20.2%。

供应端，9月份进口铁矿发运较前期有所回升，全球铁矿石月均发运总量3222万吨，月均环比增加97万吨；其中澳洲因为检修结束，供应量有所增加环比显著提升，9月月均发运量1875万吨，环比上月增加154万吨，达今年以来次新高，此外初澳巴以外非主流国受疫情及我国需求减少原因发运量所有下跌。整体铁矿供应有望看到环比的明显改善，而国内铁精粉受安全生产影响，国内各矿山按部就班有望陆续复产，但难以对国内整体供给产生太大扰动。

需求端，9月份中国压产政策稳步推进，导致铁水产量持续下降，截至9月30日，Mysteel统计247家钢厂样本9月铁水产量总量环比上月下降487万吨至6621万吨，考虑到压产时间线将提前至11月底完成，由此必然造成国内铁矿消费的进一步萎缩。更为关键的是后期钢铁冶炼仍将受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。

库存端，9月进口铁矿到港总量较上一月有所回落，截至9月30日，Mysteel统计45港港口库存总量13321.66万吨，月环比累库465万吨。6月-9月，铁矿库存有实质性累积800万吨左右；9月全国247家钢材进口铁矿库存延续降库趋势，虽在国庆前有一波补库，但整体继续维持低位。

整体来看，全国粗钢压产的稳步推进并要求企业在11月前完成压减任务，国内铁矿消费将进一步萎缩，加上进口铁矿的持续高库存，从而延续铁矿供应过剩的格局，但近期海运费大幅上涨，也增加了铁矿的到岸成本，但总体趋势下铁矿向上幅度空间不大，预计四季度将维持小幅震荡，建议观望为主。

策略：

单边：无

套利：多成材空铁矿

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：供应暂无压力，价格有望偏强震荡

因处于旺季，10月橡胶原料价格将维持震荡偏弱的走势，但从泰国的雨水规律来看，预计10月仍处于雨季，10月底或将迎来雨水较少时期，届时，原料将可能大量放量。毕竟当下的原料价格仍处于中间位置，并没有明显低估。因此，10月份或可能难以出现原料价格大幅下行。

我们认为，10月将迎来国内深色胶库存的继续去库。但需求最大的风险在于国内双控对于轮胎生产的影响，如果持续抑制轮胎开工率，则不利于原料价格的企稳。深色胶的去库也将结束，但重新累库还需要看到港的情况。浅色胶则因为国内产量的持续放量，库存将延续回升。

因海内外割胶旺季的到来，国内供应维持增加，但海外泰国等主产区因10月雨水尚未完全结束，预计产量难以大幅回升。国内因海费运以及东南亚疫情带来的物流受阻或可能在10月份仍不能有效改善，因此，国内到港节奏依然较为缓慢，海外供应旺季的传导还会延迟，因此，10月份国内供应压力暂无。需求则是弱稳状态，最差的时刻已经过去。因此，我们认为，在供应暂无明显压力下，10月胶价有望偏强震荡，建议多头思路对待为主。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：库存大幅回升，产区供应量大增，需求继续示弱。

原油：传统交通消费复苏趋缓，关注天然气替代消费

我们认为四季度原油市场的不确定性显著增加，市场波动将会更加剧烈，主要体现在：1、天然气外溢效应的不确定性，天然气替代需求究竟能对原油消费带来多大复苏的提振，目前没有明确答案，市场预估的范围较宽，从50万桶/日到200万桶/日不等，这取决于油气比价关系以及设施的物理瓶颈，而考虑到四季度原油市场本身存在的100~150万桶/日的缺口，在欧佩克不追加增产的情况下，毫无疑问四季度的平衡表缺口会继续上调，这就意味着四季度原油库存去化速度会有所加快，而考虑到目前全球石油库存已经处于5年同期低位，天然气替代需求对油价的冲击将会更加显著；2、中美如何动用战略储备库存，包括释放的时机以及释放的数量，使用战略储备库存将会显著缓和当前的供需缺口，这也是一个政策与市场博弈的过程，例如虽然中国释放了第一批战略储备原油，但油价不跌反涨，主要是下发的形式与数量不及预期，市场对于中国抛售战略储备似乎并不担心，但美国抛储却并不在市场预期之内，这也是国庆期间油价大幅波动的重要原因，如果美国开始大幅抛储那么对油价将会产生显著影响；3、今冬气温的不确定性，今年以来，全球异常天气显著增加，极寒与高温交替出现，暴雨与旱灾也在全球频繁发生，这使得预测今年冬天的气温变得较为困难，如果今冬再度出现类似去年的极寒天气，预计将对取暖油在内的能源品种再度形成提振，从而成为引爆油价的另一个导火索。

我们认为四季度油价仍旧维持高位，表现上易涨难跌，天然气替代需求以及极端天气等领域仍有较多故事可讲，同时在欧佩克与美国页岩油年内供应释放有限的背景下，原油供应缺乏弹性，供需驱动仍偏强，而在油品板块内部，得益于消费替代、取暖等领域的提振，我们预计柴油、LPG以及燃料油仍旧是板块内相对更为强势的品种。

策略：谨慎偏多，布油偏多思路对待，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国大幅释放原油战略储备

PTA：双控拖累聚酯开工，而上游PX左侧回落

平衡表展望：PTA10-11月在检修全兑现背景下仅是小幅累库；亚洲PX平衡表10-11月连续小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费反弹到位，暂观望。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间