Iron Ore: Steel mills replenish inventory after the holiday, and iron ore prices rebounded.

Yesterday, the Iron Ore 01 contract continued its rebound trend, closing at 797.5, an increase of 48.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot market prices also rose significantly, steel mills continued to restock after the holiday, and the overall performance was relatively active. The mainstream varieties rose 15-30 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume increased.

On the supply side, iron ore shipments this week saw a larger drop compared to the previous period. Among them, the global iron ore shipment totaled 30.03 million tons, a decrease of 5.49 million tons from the previous month. Shipments in Australia and Brazil fell by 3.31 million tons, while shipments in the remaining countries fell by 2.18 million tons. The overall iron ore shipment volume fell short of expectations and was lower than the level of the same period last year. At the same time, due to the high sea freight rate and the iron ore discount, the current ore price has fallen close to the cost line of some non-mainstream ore. If the price of ore continues to fall or will cause a partial reduction, and the enthusiasm for domestic ore production is also affected, the overall supply of iron ore will increase slowly.

On the demand side, the national production restriction policy has been steadily advanced, resulting in a continuous decline in molten iron output. Taking into account that the production limit will be completed in advance to the end of November, this may cause a decline in domestic iron ore consumption. In the future, steel smelting will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase.

On the whole, the shipment volume of iron ore fell short of expectations, and the recent sharp increase in ocean freight has also increased the landed cost of iron ore. However, considering the steady advancement of national crude steel production restrictions and requiring companies to complete the reduction task by November, domestic iron ore consumption has been suppressed. The price of iron ore is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation, and a wait-and-see attitude is recommended.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy;

2. The risk of rising ocean freight.

Rubber: The price of raw materials in Thailand continued to rise under the influence of rainfall.

On October 11, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,775 (+380) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,625 (+150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -900 yuan/ton (+70); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 85,378 (+7,964) lots, the short position was 123,519 (+6,464) lots, and the net short position was 38,141 (-1,500) lots.

On October 11, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,935 (+380) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,805 (+55) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,795 (+50) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,755 (+35) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -619 (-176) yuan/ton.

As of October 8: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 247,859 (+4,578) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 202,360 (+660) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.19 (+1.79), cup lump 48 (+0.85), latex 51 (+2), RSS3 55.65 (+1.76).

As of September 30, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 53.86% (-1.9%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 50.06% (-2.5%).

Opinion: The price of rubber continued to be strong yesterday, mainly due to the promotion of the commodity market sentiment and the limited output caused by flooding in Thailand's main producing areas. The current trading logic of rubber prices is mainly on the supply side. Due to the impact of the typhoon in the main producing areas of Hainan, short-term rubber delivery has also been suppressed to a certain extent. The drop in ocean freight during the holiday also eased the concerns of domestic tire export demand, and the pessimistic expectations on the demand side were basically released before the holiday. Therefore, the current rubber is at a relatively favorable time point, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly.

Strategy: cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The market is concerned about the demand for natural gas substitution, and the trend of oil prices is still strong.

In terms of high-frequency mobility data, from the perspective of the three alternative traffic mobility data of TomTom, Apple and Google, the recent recovery trend of global traffic consumption has slowed down. TomTom data shows that the recovery of traffic in other regions except Europe has basically stagnated since September. On the contrary, the European traffic congestion index recovered to around 120% in early October, the highest level at the end of the year. China's congestion index declined due to the National Holidays, while other regions showed little change. In terms of aviation consumption, the number of global flights rose slightly to a previous high. However, from a structural point of view, the number of European and American flights has basically remained stable, with growth mainly coming from the Asia-Pacific region and other developing regions. However, these areas are still being restrained by the epidemic, and the recovery of jet fuel consumption in the future will still be difficult. After the recovery in Europe and America is nearing the top, the recovery of global consumption will slow down. Despite this, the current market is more concerned about the contradiction between natural gas alternative consumption and limited supply elasticity. Oil prices are expected to remain strong in the near future.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The United States may substantially release its strategic crude oil reserves.

Copper: Multiple factors have pushed copper prices higher.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, the spot market's premiums and discounts show a trend of opening higher and lowering later. Holders have a strong willingness to exchange spot under the high BACK structure, but the downstream has no intention of actively buying interest after they just need to replenish the inventory on the first day after the holiday, resulting in weak transactions. Traders have no intention of entering the market even under the spread of the market BACK, which leads to serious panic about high prices. There are only a few days left before the settlement, the Shanghai-London ratio is revised up after the holiday, the import window opens, and the transaction price of Yangshan Copper rises. Recently imported copper may significantly increase the concentration of arrivals, and the pattern of high premiums is unlikely to be sustainable. If the BACK structure still exists, and it is constantly narrowing, the exchange for spot and lowering of premiums will continue within this week.

Viewpoint: The copper price in the day trading rose yesterday, and the copper price in the night trading continued to perform strongly. On the macro front, the Bank of England hinted that an interest rate hike is imminent, and the money market expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 15 basis points at its December 2021 meeting. According to the analysis of JP Morgan Chase, although the September non-agricultural employment report is relatively weak, it will not shake the Fed's reduction process. The Fed is expected to announce its debt reduction at its meeting next month and begin raising short-term interest rates before the end of next year. In the context of recent supply shortages, rising energy prices and increasing inflation, the Citigroup Global Economic Surprise Index has now turned negative and has fallen to a level that has historically indicated an economic slowdown. At the same time, the Citigroup Global Inflation Surprise Index soared to its highest level since records began in 1999. Domestically, Premier Li Keqiang presided over a meeting of the National Energy Commission to ensure stable energy supply and safety, and strengthen the ability to support green development.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Short-term overhauls increase, and processing costs are firm.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA is still expected to accumulate inventory from October to November under the background of implementation of overhaul; the Asian PX balance sheet is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly from October to November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：钢厂节后补库，铁矿价格反弹

昨日铁矿01合约延续反弹走势，收盘价为797.5，环比上涨48.5元/吨，现货市场价格也出现明显上涨，钢厂延续节后补库，整体表现较为活跃，主流品种上涨15-30元/吨，成交量有所增长。

供应端，本周铁矿发运较前期出现较大降幅，其中全球铁矿石发运总量3003万吨，环比下降549万吨；澳巴发运下降331万吨，非澳巴发运下降218万吨。整体铁矿发运量不及预期，低于去年同期水平，同时由于海运费高企与铁矿石折扣的关系，当前矿价已下跌接近至部分非主流矿成本线，若矿价持续下跌或将引起部分减量，而国产矿生产积极性也受到影响，因此铁矿总体供应增加缓慢。

需求端，全国压产政策稳步推进，导致铁水产量持续下降，考虑到压产时间线将提前至11月底完成，由此造成国内铁矿消费的萎缩。后期钢铁冶炼仍将受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。

整体来看，铁矿发运不及预期，同时近期海运费大幅上涨，也增加了铁矿的到岸成本，但考虑到全国粗钢压产的稳步推进并要求企业在11月前完成压减任务，国内铁矿消费受到压制，预计铁矿价格将维持小幅震荡，建议观望为主。

策略：

单边：中性

跨期：无

跨品种：多成空矿

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等

橡胶：降雨影响，泰国原料价格延续上涨

11号，RU主力收盘14775（+380）元/吨，混合胶报价12625元/吨（+150），主力合约基差-900元/吨（+70）；前二十主力多头持仓85378（+7964），空头持仓123519（+6464），净空持仓38141（-1500）。

11号，NR主力收盘价11935（+380）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1805（+55）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1795美元/吨（+50），印尼标胶1755（+35）美元/吨。主力合约基差-619（-176）元/吨。

截至10月8日：交易所总库存247859（+4578），交易所仓单202360（+660）。

原料：生胶片52.19（+1.79），杯胶48（+0.85），胶水51（+2），烟片55.65（+1.76）。

截止9月30日，国内全钢胎开工率为53.86%（-1.9%），国内半钢胎开工率为50.06%(-2.5%）。

观点：昨天胶价延续强势，主要受商品市场氛围的推动以及泰国主产区洪水影响带来的产量受限。目前橡胶价格的交易逻辑主要在供应端，国内海南主产区因受台风影响，短期割胶也受到一定抑制。假期期间海运费的下降也使得国内轮胎出口需求的担忧有所缓解，需求端的悲观预期也在节前基本释放。因此，当下橡胶处于环境相对利好的时间点，价格有望延续偏强震荡。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：市场关注天然气替代需求，油价走势仍偏强

高频流动性数据方面，从TomTom、Apple和谷歌三大交通流动性另类数据来看，近期全球交通消费的复苏趋势有所放缓，TomTom数据显示，9月以来除欧洲外其他地区的交通复苏基本停滞，欧洲一枝独秀，10月初交通拥堵指数恢复至120%左右为年底最高水平，中国受到十一长假影响拥堵指数下降，其他地区则变化不大。航空消费方面，全球航班数量小幅攀升至前高，但从结构来看，欧美航班数量基本持稳，增长主要来自亚太地区以及其他发展中地区，而这些地区仍旧受到疫情的抑制，未来航煤消费的复苏仍旧道阻且长，在欧美复苏接近顶部之后，全球消费复苏的速度将会有所放缓。虽然如此，但目前市场更加关注的是天然气替代消费以及供给弹性有限的矛盾，预计近期油价仍偏强运行。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国大幅释放原油战略储备

铜：多重因素推动铜价呈现走高态势

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场升贴水呈现高开低走之势，尾盘升水更是随着BACK价差结构的缩小，出货换现意愿明显增强，持货商意在高BACK结构下换现，无奈下游在节后首日刚需补库后今日无意存有积极买兴，成交凸显清淡，贸易商在盘面BACK高价差下也无意入市，畏高情绪严重，距离交割所剩无几日，节后沪伦比值上修，进口窗口打开，洋山铜交易价格上抬，近日进口铜或将到货集中度明显提高，高升水格局难有持续性，如果BACK结构仍存，且在不断缩窄中，抛货换现降升水将在周内持续。

观点：昨日日盘铜价拉涨，11合约表现多头增仓入场。夜盘铜价持续表现强势。宏观方面，英国央行暗示加息在即，货币市场预计英国央行将在2021年12月会议上加息15个基点。根据摩根大通分析，9月非农就业报告虽然相对疲软，但不会动摇美联储减码进程。预计美联储将在下个月会议上宣布缩债，并在明年年底前开始提高短期利率。在最近的供应短缺、能源价格上涨和通胀加剧的背景下，目前花旗全球经济意外指数已转为负值，并跌至历史上曾经表明经济放缓的水平。与此同时，花旗全球通胀意外指数飙升至自1999年有记录以来最高水平。国内方面，李克强总理主持召开国家能源委员会会议，保障能源稳定供应和安全，增强绿色发展支撑能力。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：短期检修增多，加工费坚挺

平衡表展望：PTA全检修兑现背景下，10月平衡表库存从累库缩窄为走平；亚洲PX平衡表10-11月连续小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费反弹到位，暂观望。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间