Iron Ore: Market sentiment weakened and iron ore prices fell.

Yesterday, the iron ore 01 contract fell, and the closing price was 769.5, down 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot price followed its decline.

On the supply side, iron ore shipments this week saw a larger drop compared to the previous period. Among them, the global iron ore shipment totaled 30.03 million tons, a decrease of 5.49 million tons from the previous month. Shipments in Australia and Brazil fell by 3.31 million tons, while shipments in the remaining countries fell by 2.18 million tons. The overall iron ore shipment volume fell short of expectations and was lower than the level of the same period last year. At the same time, due to the high sea freight rate and the iron ore discount, the current ore price has fallen close to the cost line of some non-mainstream ore. If the price of ore continues to fall or will cause a partial reduction, and the enthusiasm for domestic ore production is also affected, the overall supply of iron ore will increase slowly.

On the demand side, the national production restriction policy has been steadily advanced, resulting in a continuous decline in molten iron output. Taking into account that the production limit will be completed in advance to the end of November, this may cause a decline in domestic iron ore consumption. In the future, steel smelting will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase.

On the whole, the shipment volume of iron ore fell short of expectations, and the recent sharp increase in ocean freight has also increased the landed cost of iron ore. However, considering the steady advancement of national crude steel production restrictions and requiring companies to complete the reduction task by November, domestic iron ore consumption has been suppressed. The price of iron ore is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation, and a wait-and-see attitude is recommended.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy;

2. The risk of rising ocean freight.

Rubber: The decline in port inventory slowed down.

On October 12, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,785 (+10) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,675 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -660 yuan/ton (+240); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 88,066 (+2,688) lots, the short position was 127,715 (+4,196) lots, and the net short position was 39,649 (+1,508) lots.

On October 12, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,960 (+25) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,805 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,795 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,755 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -650 (-31) yuan/ton.

As of October 8: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 247,859 (+4,578) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 202,360 (+660) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.15 (+0.96), cup lump 48.25 (+0.25), latex 52 (+1), RSS3 56.22 (+0.57).

As of September 30, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 53.86% (-1.9%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 50.06% (-2.5%).

Opinion: The latest port inventory announced yesterday continued a slight downward trend, but the recent drop in ocean freight will bring ease of logistics and transportation. In view of seasonality, it is expected that the turning point of inventory accumulation will come again. Therefore, when the current market price hits 15,000 yuan/ton, the space above the price may be relatively limited, unless the supply side influence is further increased, resulting in insufficient domestic spot supply. At present, domestic rubber delivery is basically normal, and supply is expected to resume after the typhoon weather passes. And because the rains in Thailand's main producing areas have not yet completely ended, short-term output from overseas supply is unlikely to rebound significantly. Therefore, we expect that the momentum for prices to continue to rise is slowing down, but supply will take time to reflect, and short-term prices will not be able to fall sharply. Investors are advised to focus on short-term operations.

Strategy: cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Domestic diesel prices are strong, and exports may continue to decline in the future.

During the National Day, China's diesel market price rose by nearly 500 yuan/ton, which showed strong performance among refined oil products and formed a significant difference in the performance of gasoline prices. We think it is mainly due to the fact that some factories and small and medium-sized industrial and commercial enterprises have begun to use diesel generators as an alternative power generation option. It is reported that the rental price of diesel generators has doubled. However, as stated in our previous report, although the strong diesel price has boosted the profitability of refineries, it is due to environmental inspections and local refinery power curtailment (including the recent energy report mentioned that some refineries have production capacity false reports). These policy factors will restrain the operating rate of domestic refineries, and the shortage of diesel will be transmitted through the reduction of diesel exports and the purchase of crude oil with higher diesel yield by refineries.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The United States may substantially release its strategic crude oil reserves.

Copper: The downstream operating rate fell short of expectations, and premiums and discounts fell sharply.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market premium continued yesterday's sharp downward trend. After the market's inter-month BACK structure returned to 300 yuan/ton, and the market price fluctuated at a high level of 71,000 yuan/ton, market participants and downstream buyers took a wait-and-see attitude, while holders desperately dumped the goods in exchange for spot. At the beginning of the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 120-150 yuan/ton, but there were very few inquiries in the market. Upon seeing this, some holders quickly adjusted their prices to a premium of 80-100 yuan/ton, and after 9:30, their quotations have dropped to a premium of 50-60 yuan/ton. Before the second period, market quotations stopped at a premium of 10-20 yuan/ton, but the overall trading activity was still relatively insipid. After the second trading session, the transaction did not improve slightly until the market price dropped sharply. With the continuous inflow of imported brands such as CCC-P and ENM, High-Grade Copper 's quotations fell rapidly. CCC-P rarely had a large number of transactions even when the quotation reached a premium of around 50 yuan/ton. Only Guixi-Copper stood at a premium of around 100 yuan/ton, but the downstream buying acceptance was not high, and there were few transactions in the market. The price of Hydro-Copper was adjusted accordingly with the inflow of imported copper. Hydro-Copper as a whole was quoted at a discount of around 60 yuan/ton under the guidance of BMK, NORLISK and other brands. However, the downstream panic over the high market prices caused market participants to take a wait-and-see attitude, and it was difficult for the holders to exchange goods for spot.

Viewpoint: On the macro front, the US consumer inflation expectations recently released by the New York Federal Reserve show that the one-year inflation expectations in September reached 5.31%, a new high since the launch of the consumer expectations survey in 2013. In September, three-year inflation expectations rose to 4.19%, a record high. Yesterday, Fed executives expressed their opinions intensively, believing that the reduction conditions have almost been met, and that inflation is by no means "temporary." Among them, St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad expressed his support for the beginning of debt reduction in November. Fundamentally, according to SMM news, SMM 1# Copper Cathode production in September was 802,900 tons, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Due to the continuous impact of maintenance and power curtailment, the domestic SMM 1# Copper Cathode output is expected to be 803,000 tons in October, which will be flat on a month-on-month basis.

On the whole, the downstream operating rate fell short of expectations, and premiums and discounts fell sharply. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will maintain wide fluctuations and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Yisheng Dahua resumed work, and PTA processing fees dropped.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA is still expected to accumulate inventory from October to November under the background of implementation of overhaul; the Asian PX balance sheet is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly from October to November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：市场情绪转弱，铁矿价格下跌

昨日铁矿01合约有所下跌，收盘价为769.5，环比下跌1.5元/吨，现货价格跟随下跌。

供应端，本周铁矿发运较前期出现较大降幅，全球铁矿石发运总量3003万吨，环比下降549万吨；澳巴发运下降331万吨，非澳巴发运下降218万吨。整体铁矿发运量不及预期，低于去年同期水平，同时由于海运费高企与铁矿石折扣的关系，经过前期下跌后，矿价已接近部分非主流矿成本线，若矿价持续下跌或将引起部分减量，而国产矿生产积极性也受到影响，因此铁矿总体供应增加缓慢。

需求端，全国压产政策稳步推进，导致铁水产量持续下降，节后部分钢厂出现补库，但考虑到压产时间线将提前至11月底完成，因此国内铁矿消费将延续萎缩态势。后期钢铁冶炼仍将受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。

整体来看，铁矿发运不及预期，同时近期海运费大幅上涨，也增加了铁矿的到岸成本，但考虑到全国粗钢压产的稳步推进，国内铁矿消费受到压制，预计铁矿价格将维持小幅震荡，建议观望为主。

策略：

单边：中性

跨期：无

跨品种：多材空矿

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：港口库存降幅放缓

12号，RU主力收盘14785（+10）元/吨，混合胶报价12675元/吨（+50），主力合约基差-660元/吨（+240）；前二十主力多头持仓88066（+2688），空头持仓127715（+4196），净空持仓39649（+1508）。

12号，NR主力收盘价11960（+25）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1805（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1795美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1755（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-650（-31）元/吨。

截至10月8日：交易所总库存247859（+4578），交易所仓单202360（+660）。

原料：生胶片53.15（+0.96），杯胶48.25（+0.25），胶水52（+1），烟片56.22（+0.57）。

截止9月30日，国内全钢胎开工率为53.86%（-1.9%），国内半钢胎开工率为50.06%(-2.5%）。

观点：昨天隆众公布的最新港口库存延续小幅下降趋势，但因近期海运费下降将带来物流运输缓解，结合季节性来看，预计库存累库拐点重新来临。因此，目前盘面价格触及15000元/吨一线后，上方空间或较为有限，除非供应端影响进一步加大，带来国内现货供应不足。目前国内割胶基本正常，台风天气过去之后，预计供应将重新恢复。而海外因为泰国主产区雨水还没完全结束，短期产量难以大幅回升。因此，我们预计，价格继续推涨的动能在减缓，但供应需要时间体现，短期价格也难以大幅回落。建议短线操作为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：国内柴油价格表现坚挺，未来出口或继续下降

国庆期间，中国柴油市场价格上涨近500元/吨，在成品油当中表现强劲，并于汽油价格表现形成明显差异，我们认为主要是部分工厂以及中小工商业已经开始使用柴油发电机作为替代发电选项，据悉柴油发电机的出租价格已经翻了一倍，不过，正如我们此前报告中所说，柴油价格的强势虽然提振了炼厂利润率，但由于环保核查以及地炼限电等原因（包括近期能源报提到部分地炼存在产能虚报），这些政策性因素将会抑制国内炼厂开工率，柴油的紧缺将通过减少柴油出口以及炼厂采购柴油收率更高的原油的方式来传导。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：下游开工不及预期，升贴水大幅下跌

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场升水延续昨日一泻千里之势。在盘面隔月BACK结构重新回到300元/吨的情况下，外加盘面一度在71000元/吨的高位震荡，让市场参与者以及下游买盘纷纷驻足观望，持货者则逢高拼命甩货换现。早市盘初平水铜始报于升水120-150元/吨，市场询盘者寥寥，部分持货商见状快速调价至升水80-100元/吨，九点半以后持货商的报价已降至升水50-60元/吨，第二时段前市场已然驻足于升水10-20元/吨报价，但整体交投活跃度依旧较为清淡。第二时段后平水报价逐渐流出，且盘面大幅回落，成交才略显好转。好铜则随着CCC-P，ENM等进口品牌的持续流入，报价迅速回落，CCC-P甚至在升水50元/吨左右亦难见大量成交，仅有贵溪铜挺价于升水100元/吨左右，但下游买盘接受度不高，市场难闻成交。湿法铜亦在进口铜的流入下凸显调价之势，始于平水附近，快速显现贴水状态，整体在BMK，NORLISK等品牌报价指引下报至贴水60元/吨附近，但下游畏高情绪严重，市场参与者纷纷驻足观望，持货商难以出货换现。

观点：昨日日盘铜价震荡下行，11合约表现空头增仓入场。夜盘铜价表现高开低走局面。宏观方面，美国纽约联储近日发布的美国消费者通胀预期显示，9月一年期通胀预期达到5.31%，创2013年启动消费者预期调查以来的新高；9月三年期通胀预期上升至4.19%，也创历史新高。昨日美联储高管密集表态，认为减码条件几乎已经满足，通胀绝非“暂时的”。其中圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示支持在11月开始缩债。基本面看，据SMM讯，9月SMM中国电解铜产量为80.29万吨，环比降低2.0%，同比增加0.4%。受检修及限电的持续影响，预计10月国内电解铜产量为80.3万吨，环比将持平。

整体看来，下游开工不及预期，升贴水大幅下跌。单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：逸盛大化复工，PTA加工费回落

平衡表展望：PTA全检修兑现背景下，10月平衡表库存转为微幅累库；亚洲PX平衡表10-11月连续小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费反弹到位，暂观望。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间