Iron Ore: Market sentiment dropped to freezing point and iron ore prices fell sharply.

Yesterday, the iron ore 01 contract fell sharply, and the closing price was 731, which was 46 yuan/ton lower than the previous value. Spot prices followed the decline, with a cumulative drop of 15-25 yuan/ton throughout the day.

On the supply side, global iron ore shipments this week decreased by 5.49 million tons from the previous month. The overall iron ore shipment volume fell short of expectations and was lower than the level of the same period last year. At the same time, due to the high sea freight rate and the iron ore discount, the current ore price has fallen to near the cost line of some non-mainstream ore. If the price of ore continues to fall, it may cause some reductions, and the enthusiasm of domestic ore production will also be affected, so the overall supply of iron ore will increase slowly.

On the demand side, the national production restriction policy has been steadily advancing, resulting in a continuous decline in molten iron output, and some steel plants have restocked after the holiday. Yesterday, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on launching staggered production in the steel industry in the heating season of 2021-2022 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, stating that it will further suppress domestic iron ore consumption. In the future, steel smelting will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase.

On the whole, the shipment volume of iron ore fell short of expectations, and the recent sharp increase in ocean freight has also increased the landed cost of iron ore. However, considering the steady advancement of national crude steel production restrictions, domestic iron ore consumption has been suppressed. The price of iron ore is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation, and a wait-and-see attitude is recommended.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when the price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. The impact of typhoon weather;

3. Inventory replenishment on National Day;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The price of raw materials is firm due to the impact of rainfall.

On October 13, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,435 (-350) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,500 (-175) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -860 yuan/ton (-200); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 85,955 (-2,111) lots, the short position was 121,971 (-5,744) lots, and the net short position was 36,016 (-3,633) lots.

On October 13, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,560 (-400) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,750 (-55) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,745 (-50) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,715 (-40) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -479 (+170) yuan/ton.

As of October 8: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 247,859 (+4,578) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 202,360 (+660) tons.

Raw materials: The market is closed and no quotation is currently available. Sheet rubber 53.15 (0), cup lump 48.25 (0), latex 52 (0), RSS3 56.22 (0).

As of September 30, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 53.86% (-1.9%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 50.06% (-2.5%).

Opinion: Driven by the market sentiment, the price of rubber fluctuated sharply yesterday. The impact of typhoon weather in major production areas at home and abroad has brought about a short-term slowdown in supply, making rubber prices strong. After the typhoon passes, supply is expected to resume. From a seasonal perspective, the end of October in China will usher in a turning point in port inventory accumulation. Therefore, at the current price, the upper space may be relatively limited, unless the influence of the supply side is further increased, which further aggravates the shortage of domestic spot supply. Because the rain in Thailand's main production areas has not yet completely ended, short-term overseas production is unlikely to rebound significantly. In addition, there are not many stocks in the port of Thailand. Therefore, the price comparison is still supported by the supply side. We expect that prices will enter a turbulent trend. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API crude oil inventories increased more than expected.

China's removal of electricity price controls in some provinces will help ease the problem of electricity curtailment in some regions. However, considering that the domestic coal shortage is still difficult to completely resolve in the near future, the power shortage will continue, and high electricity prices may continue to stimulate some factories to switch to diesel generators for power generation. Of course, due to the increase in diesel prices, the economy of diesel generators has also been damaged to some extent. However, in the case of unstable power supply and rising power prices, diesel power generation is still the most feasible alternative power generation plan. We believe that diesel is still the most beneficial product in this round of energy crisis.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The United States may substantially release its strategic crude oil reserves.

Copper: US inflation data has exceeded expectations, and copper price volatility has intensified.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market finally failed to hold the premium and turned into a discount range. In the morning session, inter-month BACK was still in the range of 280-320 yuan/ton, and holders tried to maintain the quotation of a premium of 10-20 yuan/ton. High-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of around 50 yuan/ton, but the spread of around 300 yuan/ton made it difficult for buyers to enter the market. Holders have a strong willingness to exchange spot before delivery. As the spread expanded to the 350-400 yuan/ton range, the holders took the initiative to lower the quotation of a discount of 10-20 yuan/ton for spot exchange. Since imported copper has flowed into the domestic market, high-purity supplies from Peru, ENM, and Jinchuan have all flowed out of the market, and the willingness to exchange spot was stronger. As a result, the price of High-Grade Copper was infinitely close to that of Standard-Grade Copper, and there was almost no price difference. The price has reached a discount of 10 yuan/ton at the end of the afternoon session. Hydro-Copper has dropped to a discount of more than 100 yuan/ton under the quotations of brands such as NORLISK and MV, and the downstream maintains just-need purchase demand at a discount of more than 120 yuan/ton.

Viewpoint: On the macro front, the minutes of the Fed’s September FOMC meeting were announced. According to estimates by Fed officials, if Taper is announced at the November meeting, it may start operations in mid-November or mid-December, and many people prefer faster Taper. The minutes mentioned that all participants unanimously agreed that it would be appropriate to state this in the resolutions announced after the meeting: If progress continues as expected, the pace of adjusting the purchase of assets may soon be guaranteed. At the same time, many people pointed out that there is a risk that high inflation will last longer. Judging from the data released yesterday, the US CPI has risen for 16 consecutive months. In September, the CPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 5.3%. For the fifth consecutive month, it increased by more than 5% year-on-year, the highest level since July 2008. In September, the core CPI rose 4% year-on-year, in line with expectations. As the market's concerns about inflation intensify, according to the implicit interest rate in the federal funds rate futures, the current market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September next year is as high as 90%. On the domestic front, China's September increase in the scale of social financing and new RMB loans continued to maintain the strong growth rate in August, and the M2-M1 scissors gap has been expanding for five consecutive months.

On the whole, US inflation data has increased more than expected, and copper price volatility has intensified.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: During the reopening of Yisheng, the PTA processing fee has been further reduced.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA is still expected to accumulate inventory from October to November under the background of implementation of overhaul; the Asian PX balance sheet is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly from October to November.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：市场情绪降至冰点，铁矿价格大幅下挫

昨日铁矿01合约大幅下跌，收盘价为731，环比下跌46元/吨，现货价格跟随下跌，全天累计下跌15-25元/吨。

供应端，本周全球铁矿发运环比下降549万吨，整体铁矿发运量不及预期，低于去年同期水平，同时由于海运费高企与铁矿石折扣的关系，当前矿价已跌至部分非主流矿成本线附近，若矿价持续下跌或将引起部分减量，而国产矿生产积极性也受到影响，因此铁矿总体供应增加缓慢。

需求端，全国压产政策稳步推进，导致铁水产量持续下降，节后部分钢厂出现补库，昨日工信部发布关于开展京津冀及周边地区2021-2022年采暖季钢铁行业错峰生产的通知，将进一步打压国内铁矿消费。后期钢铁冶炼受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。

整体来看，铁矿发运不及预期，同时近期海运费大幅上涨，也增加了铁矿的到岸成本，但考虑到全国粗钢压产的稳步推进，国内铁矿消费受到压制，预计铁矿价格将维持小幅震荡，建议观望为主。

策略：

单边：中性

跨期：无

跨品种：多材空矿、1-5正套

期现：无

期权：逢高买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，台风天气影响，国庆补库情况，疫情加重等

橡胶：降雨影响，原料价格坚挺

13号，RU主力收盘14435（-350）元/吨，混合胶报价12500元/吨（-175），主力合约基差-860元/吨（-200）；前二十主力多头持仓85955（-2111），空头持仓121971（-5744），净空持仓36016（-3633）。

13号，NR主力收盘价11560（-400）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1750（-55）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1745美元/吨（-50），印尼标胶1715（-40）美元/吨。主力合约基差-479（+170）元/吨。

截至10月8日：交易所总库存247859（+4578），交易所仓单202360（+660）。

原料：市场休市，暂无报价。生胶片53.15（0），杯胶48.25（0），胶水52（0），烟片56.22（0）。

截止9月30日，国内全钢胎开工率为53.86%（-1.9%），国内半钢胎开工率为50.06%(-2.5%）。

观点：在市场氛围带动下，昨天胶价盘中大幅波动。海内外主产区台风天气的影响带来供应短期减缓，使得橡胶价格强势。随着台风过去之后，预计供应将重新恢复。季节性来看，国内10月下旬将迎来港口库存累库拐点，因此，在当下价格下，上方空间或较为有限，除非供应端的影响进一步加大，带来国内现货供应不足进一步加剧。海外因为泰国主产区的雨水还没完全结束，短期产量难以大幅回升叠加泰国港上库存不多，预计国内集中到港的压力短期难以出现。因此，较价仍有供应端的支撑，我们预计，价格将步入震荡。建议暂时观望。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API原油库存增幅超预期

中国取消部分省份的电价管制，有助于缓和部分地区的限电问题，但考虑到国内煤炭的短缺仍旧在近期内难以完全解决，电力紧张的情况仍会延续，且高电价也可能继续刺激部分工厂转而使用柴油发电机进行发电，当然由于柴油价格的上涨，柴油发电机的经济性也受到一定损害，但在电力供给不稳定叠加电价上涨的情况下，柴油发电仍旧是可行性最高的备选发电方案，我们认为柴油依然是在此轮能源危机中最为受益的品种。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：美国通胀数据超预期增长，铜价波动加剧

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场终于未能守住升水态势，转为贴水区间，早市隔月BACK尚在280-320元/吨区间，持货商试图维持小幅升水10-升水20元/吨报价，好铜则起始于升水50元/吨左右，但300元/吨左右的月差难以令买货者入市，持货商则在交割前换现意愿强烈，主动降至平水附近，随着月差一度扩至350-400元/吨区间，持货商为求换现主动降至贴水10-20元/吨，好铜由于进口铜流入国内市场后，市场上秘鲁大板、ENM及金川高纯货源都有流出，且换现意愿更强，与平水铜无限接近难见价差，午市盘尾时已闻贴水10元的报价。湿法铜则在NORLISK和MV等品牌报价下直降至贴水100元/吨以上，下游在贴水120元/吨以上维持刚需采购需求。

观点：昨日日盘铜价先抑后扬，11合约表现多头增仓入场。夜盘铜价震荡上行，11合约持续表现多头增仓入场。宏观方面，美联储9月FOMC会议纪要公布，根据联储官员预计，若11月会议官宣Taper，可能11月中或12月中开始行动，多人青睐更快Taper。纪要提到，所有与会者一致同意在会后公布的决议中适合这样表述：假如继续如预期普遍取得进展，调整购买资产的步伐可能很快有保障。同时有多人指出，目前有高通胀持续更久的风险。从昨日公布的数据来看，美国CPI连续16个月上涨，9月CPI同比上涨5.4%，超市场预期5.3%，连续第5个月同比增长超过5%，为2008年7月以来最高水平。9月核心CPI同比上涨4%，符合预期。随着市场对通胀担忧的加剧，根据联邦基金利率期货中隐含的利率显示，当前市场预计明年9月时美联储加息的概率已高达90%。国内方面，中国9月社融规模增量、新增人民币贷款继续保持了8月的强劲增速，M2-M1剪刀差连续五个月呈扩大趋势。

整体看来，美国通胀数据超预期增长，铜价波动加剧。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：逸盛大化重启中，PTA加工费进一步压缩

平衡表展望：PTA全检修兑现背景下，10月平衡表库存转为微幅累库；亚洲PX平衡表10-11月连续小幅累库预期。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费反弹到位，暂观望。（2）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间