Iron Ore: The downstream demand is weak, and iron ore is prone to decline but difficult to rise.

Last week, the iron ore rose to 804 and then fell back. As of Friday, the 01 contract closed at 723.5 points, down 39.5 points from the previous week, and fell again in night trading. In terms of spot, the lowest spot price of PB fines at the port is 877 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from last week, and SSF is 538 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from last week. The Platts Index was 125.45 US dollars, up 0.6 US dollars from last week.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, Australia and Brazil shipped 24.126 million tons of iron ore, a month-on-month decrease of 3.316 million tons. Australia shipped 17.043 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 961,000 tons. Among them, Australia sent 15.243 million tons to China, a decrease of 413,000 tons from the previous month. Brazil shipped 7.083 million tons, a decrease of 2.355 million tons from the previous month. The global iron ore shipment totaled 30.03 million tons, a decrease of 5.496 million tons from the previous month.

On the demand side, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.07%, an increase of 0.55% from last week and a decrease of 10.34% from last year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 80.66%, an increase of 0.72% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 12.25%. The profit rate of steel mills was 88.74%, an increase of 2.16% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 1.30%. The average daily molten iron output was 2.1622 million tons, an increase of 19,200 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 310,700 tons from the same period last year. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a 54.01% blast furnace operating rate, a decrease of 0.14% month-on-month, and a capacity utilization rate of 64.42%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.44%. The utilization rate excluding eliminated capacity was 70.13%, a decrease of 13.96% from the same period last year, and the steel mill profit rate was 77.30. %, an increase of 1.23% month-on-month.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 13,898.19, a month-on-month increase of 478.89. The average daily port congestion volume dropped from 267.42 to 6.77. Australian ore 6711.30 increased by 237.8, Brazilian ore 4,629.00 increased by 246.3, traded ore 8188.90 increased by 282.3, pellets 391.59 increased by 6.79, refined powder 1021.74 decreased by 2.36, lump ore 2229.68 increased by 159.38, coarse powder 10255.18 increased by 315.08. The number of ships in the port increased by 4 to 208. (Unit: 10,000 tons).

On the supply side, the overall iron ore shipment volume fell short of expectations and was lower than the level of the same period last year. At the same time, due to the high sea freight rate and the iron ore discount, the current ore price has fallen to near the cost line of some non-mainstream ore. If the price of ore continues to fall, it may cause some reductions, and the enthusiasm of domestic ore production will also be affected, so the overall supply of iron ore will increase slowly.

On the demand side, the national production restriction policy has been steadily advancing, resulting in a continuous decline in molten iron output, and some steel plants have restocked after the holiday. Yesterday, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on launching staggered production in the steel industry in the heating season of 2021-2022 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, stating that it will further suppress domestic iron ore consumption. In the future, steel smelting will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase.

On the whole, the shipment volume of iron ore fell short of expectations, and the recent sharp increase in ocean freight has also increased the landed cost of iron ore. However, considering the steady advancement of national crude steel production restrictions, domestic iron ore consumption has been suppressed. The price of iron ore is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation, and a wait-and-see attitude is recommended.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buying a put option when the price hits high

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy;

2. The risk of rising ocean freight.

Rubber: Arrivals at ports rebounded slightly, pay attention to the changes in inventory in the future.

Rubber futures prices fluctuated strongly last week, mainly due to the impact of typhoon in the domestic Hainan production area, which hindered rubber delivery. At the same time, Thailand also delayed rubber delivery progress due to continuous rainfall, resulting in strong domestic and overseas raw material prices. Supported by the warmer atmosphere in the overall commodity market, prices rose.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of October 15 was 250,694 tons (+2835), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 209,450 tons (+7090). Although Hainan was affected by the typhoon, rubber delivery was normal in Yunnan's production areas. Last week, the market's delivery profit rebounded, leading to continued increase in warehouse receipts. As of October 10th, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, but with the decline in ocean freight, it is expected to usher in the inflection point of accumulation.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of October 14, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 58.53% (+4.67%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 54.52% (+4.46%). With the easing of domestic power curtailment, the operating rate of downstream tire plants has rebounded. Coupled with the rebound in overseas demand, the operating rate is expected to continue to rebound slightly.

Viewpoint: Following the decline in market prices brought about by the continuous weakening of domestic downstream demand in the early stage, the weakening of the demand side is basically reflected in the market. With the current phased relief of domestic electricity curtailment and the decline in ocean freight, domestic tire exports can still maintain a certain growth rate, and demand may not continue to fall sharply, and the latter will mainly be weak and stable. Therefore, the impact of rubber prices is more dependent on changes on the supply side. Last week, under the influence of domestic typhoons and overseas rainfall, prices showed strong volatility. As long as there is no greater abnormality in the weather in the later period, the peak season for rubber delivery will resume production one after another, and it is difficult to produce further support for rubber prices. But in the short term, more attention will be paid to domestic arrivals. If the arrivals at the port are still not satisfactory and domestic port inventories will continue to deplete, it will be difficult for domestic rubber prices to continue to decline. Under the warm market atmosphere, it is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate mainly next week.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The balance sheet gap of the three major institutions continued to rise in the second half of the year.

Last Wednesday, major institutions released their October report, and this month’s report is biased towards bullish. Affected by Hurricane Ida, the three major institutions continued to revise their non-OPEC supply growth forecasts, while the IEA revised upwards its demand growth forecasts for this year. Although OPEC and EIA's estimated growth in natural gas substitution demand is relatively conservative, overall, the gaps in the balance standards of the three major institutions in the third and fourth quarters have been enlarged, which means that the inventory depletion rate is faster than expected.

Demand: EIA estimates that the demand growth in 2021 will be 5.06 million barrels per day, which is an upward revision of 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The upward revision in Asia offsets the slight downward revision in the United States. OPEC predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.81 million barrels per day, which is 140,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month’s forecast. This is mainly due to lowering the demand growth in China and India in the first half of this year. The IEA predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.53 million barrels per day, which is an upward revision of 300,000 barrels per day from the previous month’s forecast, mainly due to the demand for natural gas substitution.

Non-OPEC supply: EIA expects that 2021 non-OPEC supply will increase by 670,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is 230,000 barrels per day lower than last month's forecast, mainly because Hurricane Ida affected supplies from the United States and Latin America. EIA predicts that the total liquid supply in the United States will fall by 30,000 barrels per day in 2021, and it is expected to increase by 1.45 million barrels per day in 2022. OPEC expects non-OPEC supply to increase by 660,000 barrels per day in 2021, which is 260,000 barrels per day lower than last month’s forecast. This is also because Hurricane Ida has affected US supply growth. The IEA expects that non-OPEC supply in 2021 will increase by 620,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is 60,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month’s forecast, mainly due to continued downward revisions in the production of the United States and Brazil.

OPEC production: According to EIA statistics, OPEC's production in September increased by 380,000 barrels/day to 27.16 million barrels/day, with the increase in production from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Angola. According to OPEC's statistics, OPEC's production in September increased by 490,000 barrels/day to 27.33 million barrels/day, mainly from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iraq. According to IEA statistics, OPEC's production in September increased by 340,000 barrels/day to 267.15 million barrels/day. OPEC’s overall compliance rate was 118% unchanged from the previous month. The increase in production came from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Call on OPEC: EIA estimates that the COO for 2021 is 27.98 million barrels/day, which is an increase of 330,000 barrels/day from the previous month. According to the EIA balance sheet, the difference between supply and demand in the first to fourth quarters is -1.9 million barrels/day, -1.9 million barrels/day, -1.9 million barrels/day, and -800,000 barrels/day. The gap in the third and fourth quarters was significantly larger than that in the previous month's monthly report. OPEC estimates COO for 2021 at 27.79 million barrels/day, which is an increase of 130,000 barrels/day from the previous month. COO for the first to fourth quarters will be 2,520, 2700, 2960, and 29,400,000 barrels/day. The second quarter was revised down, and the third and fourth quarters were revised up significantly. The IEA estimates COO for 2021 to be 27.42 million barrels/day, an increase of 240,000 barrels/day from the previous month. From the first to the fourth quarter, COO was 2630, 2650, 2830, and 28.5 million barrels per day, which was revised up significantly in the third and fourth quarters.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The United States may substantially release its strategic crude oil reserves.

Copper: Multiple factors have resonated, driving the price of copper to rise sharply.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of October 15 was operating at RMB 69,925/ton-RMB 74,050/ton, and showed an upward trend in the middle of the week. The average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copperruns from a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 350 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend in the middle of the week. Last week, copper prices rose more sharply. The Shanghai Copper 10 contract rose from a minimum of 68,930 yuan/ton to a maximum of 75,990 yuan/ton. It closed at 75,130 yuan/ton on Friday night, a weekly increase of 6,180 yuan/ton.

View:

On the macro level, the short-term risk of default in the United States will be lifted in the short term, but the US Congress has about two months before the debt ceiling problem must be resolved again and the current short-term appropriations bill extended again. The U.S. CPI has risen for 16 consecutive months. In September, the CPI exceeded market expectations. It increased by more than 5% year-on-year for the fifth consecutive month, the highest level since July 2008. In September, the core CPI rose 4% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The month-on-month increase in the CPI in September has shaken the "temporary inflation" argument, which may further strengthen the Fed's determination to announce the Taper in November. The US September PPI rose 8.6% year-on-year, slightly less than market expectations of 8.7%, and continued to climb from the previous value of 8.3%, setting the highest level since November 2010. In terms of subdivided items, commodity prices led the rise in PPI in September, and energy prices rose by 2.8%, driving the index to rise as high as 40%. The US PPI has steadily increased this year. Companies are passing part of the cost to consumers, which partly explains the recent accelerated rise in consumer prices. As of October 9th, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States for the first time in the week was 293,000, which was lower than expected and fell below 300,000 for the first time since March last year. Reflecting the policy stimulus of unemployment relief payment and the supply chain crisis and "labor shortage" in the United States, the demand for workers from American companies has rebounded significantly, and the employment situation in the United States has improved to a certain extent. Currently, Citi's Global Inflation Surprise Index has soared to its highest level since records began in 1999. In the past week, in response to the further increase in inflation, Singapore tightened its monetary policy and Chile raised overnight interest rates. In the context of the current supply chain crisis, energy crisis, and inflation, LME copper exceeded $10,000/ton, the first time since June.

Domestically, the fourth batch of strategic reserve was released. In September, China's increase in social financing and new RMB loans continued to maintain the strong growth rate in August, and the M2-M1 scissors gap showed a trend of widening for five consecutive months. In September, the PPI rose by 10.7% year-on-year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The CPI rose year-on-year and turned flat from the previous month. There are three main reasons for the high PPI. The first is tight coal supply and demand. The second is the upward price increase of crude oil prices in the context of the dual control of energy consumption. The third is the promotion of the four major energy-intensive industries: nonferrous metals, cement, chemicals, and ferrous metals. Premier Li Keqiang said that he will continue to take measures to prevent the increase in commodity prices from being transmitted to the downstream of the supply chain.

In terms of consumption, according to SMM news, the continued impact of power restrictions, the operating rate of copper cables in September was lower than expected, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline in October. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 71.83% in September, and the overall operating rate of copper plate, strip and foil enterprises was 80.71% in September, both of which were down month-on-month and are expected to continue to decline in October. According to Mysteel, copper pipe production in September 2021 was 110,000 tons, a decrease of 8.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; the capacity utilization rate of copper pipes in September 2021 was 75.87%, a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. In terms of terminal consumption, the Passenger Association announced data that in September 2021, the retail sales of the passenger car market reached 1.582 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%. In terms of premiums and discounts, copper prices have risen sharply in the past week, and the spot market has shown a wait-and-see attitude. There are few buying orders. Shanghai copper premiums and discounts have fallen to average discounts. South China copper premiums and discounts are relatively strong due to the continued decline in inventories in Guangdong. In terms of imports: Lun Copper has recently risen sharply, and the internal and external price ratio has declined. At the same time, the recent import profit and loss has been negative, and the import window has been closed. The LME currently presents a strong back structure, and the latest 0-March premiums and discounts have risen to historical highs. In terms of inventory, LME and SHFE continue to de-stock on a weekly basis, and stocks in social warehouses and bonded areas are in a state of de-stocking.

On the whole, the macro aspect is currently affected by the overseas supply chain crisis, the energy crisis and inflation, which are driving the copper price to rise sharply. At the same time, the Fed's November Taper expectations strengthened. On the supply side, due to the limited power supply, the output of electrolytic copper declined slightly, while the refined scrap price difference returned to above the reasonable price difference, and the replacement effect of scrap copper reappeared. In terms of consumption, downstream operating rates and terminal data both declined compared with the previous period. In terms of inventory, social inventory is destocked again, and the inventory turning point has not yet appeared.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullsih

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of accumulated inventory;

2. Monetary policy orientation;

3. Energy crisis risk.

PTA: Zhejiang Petrochemical's fourth batch of import quotas failed to materialize, and PX rebounded rapidly.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA is still expected to accumulate inventory from October to November under the background of implementation of overhaul; Under the background of low load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the Asian PX balance sheet was tightened to balance or even slightly destocked from October to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Processing fees have rebounded, and it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：下游需求遇冷，铁矿易跌难涨

上周，铁矿冲高至804后回落，截止周五01合约收于723.5点，较前一周下跌39.5点，夜盘再度下跌。现货方面，日青京曹港最低现货价格PB粉877元/吨，较上周上涨6元/吨，超特粉538元/吨，较上周跌7元/吨。普氏指数125.45美金，较上周上涨0.6美金。基差周环比小幅走扩，截止上周，超特粉对应铁矿石01合约基差25点，较前一周扩大17点。

供应方面，Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2412.6万吨，环比减少331.6万吨；澳洲发运量1704.3万吨，环比减少96.1万吨；其中澳洲发往中国的量1524.3万吨，环比减少41.3万吨；巴西发运量708.3万吨，环比减少235.5万吨。全球铁矿石发运总量3003.1万吨，环比减少549.6万吨。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率78.07%，环比上周增加0.55%，同比去年下降10.34%；高炉炼铁产能利用率80.66%，环比增加0.72%，同比下降12.25%；钢厂盈利率88.74%，环比增加2.16%，同比下降1.30%；日均铁水产量216.22万吨，环比增加1.92万吨，同比下降31.07万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率54.01%，环比下降0.14%，产能利用率64.42%，环比下降0.44%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为70.13%，较去年同期下降13.96%，钢厂盈利率77.30%，环比增加1.23%。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为13898.19，环比增478.89；日均疏港量267.42降6.77。分量方面，澳矿6711.30增237.8，巴西矿4629.00增246.3，贸易矿8188.90增282.3，球团391.59增6.79，精粉1021.74降2.36，块矿2229.68增159.38，粗粉10255.18增315.08；在港船舶数208条增4条。（单位：万吨）。

整体来看，供应端，上周铁矿发运不及预期，叠加海运费高企且已跌至部分非主流矿成本线附近，若矿价持续下跌或将引起部分减量，而国产矿生产积极性也受到影响，因此铁矿总体供应增加缓慢。消费端，中国的压产仍将稳步推进，随着工信部发布关于开展京津冀及周边地区2021-2022年采暖季钢铁行业错峰生产的通知，后期钢铁冶炼受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。从价格来看，铁矿上下空间均较为有限，整体呈现易跌难涨格局，建议单边观望为主。另外，推荐关注铁矿1-5价差的做多机会，无论从铁矿05合约面临海运费回落、未来供需矛盾加剧及交易所交割规则改变的多重压力，还是当前1-5接近20元左右的价差来看都值得关注。

策略：

单边：无

套利：多材空矿、1-5正套

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：到港小幅回升，关注后期库存变化

上周橡胶期价偏强震荡，主要因国内海南产区受台风影响，割胶受阻，同时，泰国因持续降雨也耽搁了割胶进度，导致海内外原料价格坚挺，在总体商品市场氛围偏暖支撑下，价格向上。

国内交易所总库存截止10月15为250694吨（+2835），期货仓单量209450吨（+7090），尽管海南受台风影响，但云南产区正常割胶，上周盘面交割利润回升，导致仓单继续增加。截至10月10日，青岛保税区库存延续下降，但随着海运费的下降，预计将迎来累库拐点。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止10月14日，全钢胎企业开工率58.53%（+4.67%），半钢胎企业开工率54.52%（+4.46%）。随着国内限电的缓解，下游轮胎厂开工率有所回升，叠加海外需求回升，预计开工率有望继续小幅回升。

观点：随着前期国内下游需求持续走弱带来的盘面下行之后，需求端的示弱在盘面基本反映。当下随着国内限电的阶段性缓解以及海运费下降将使得国内轮胎出口仍可以维持一定增速，需求或难以继续大幅下挫，后期弱稳为主。因此，胶价的影响更多取决于供应端的变化，上周在国内台风以及海外降雨的影响下，价格呈现偏强震荡，后期只要天气没有更大的异常，割胶旺季将使得产量陆续恢复，对胶价难以产生进一步支撑。但短期来看，更多关注国内的到港情况，如果到港仍不理想，国内港口库存将继续去化，则国内橡胶价格难以持续下行。在市场氛围偏暖下，预计下周胶价震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：三大机构下半年平衡表缺口继续上调

上周三大机构发布了10月报，本次月报偏向利多，受到飓风艾达影响，三大机构继续下修非OPEC供应增长预测，同时IEA上修了今年需求增长预估 ，虽然OPEC与EIA对天然气替代需求的预估增长相对保守，但总体来看，三大机构三四季度的平衡标缺口均有所放大，意味着库存去化速度快于预期。

需求：EIA预计对2021年需求增长预估为506万桶/日，较上月上修10万桶/日，其中亚洲上修抵消了美国小幅下修。OPEC预计2021年需求增长预估为581万桶/日，较上月预测下修14万桶/日，主要是下修了今年上半年中国和印度的需求增长。IEA预计2021年需求增长预估为553万桶/日，较上月预测上修30万桶/日，主要来自天然气替代需求。

非OPEC供应：EIA预计2021非OPEC供应同比增加67万桶/日，较上月预测下修23万桶/日，主要因为飓风艾达影响了美国供应以及拉美供应。EIA预计2021年美国液体总供应同比下降3万桶/日，预计2022年同比增加145万桶/日。OPEC预计2021非OPEC供应增加66万桶/日，较上月预测下修26万桶/日，同样是因为飓风艾达影响了美国供应增长。IEA对2021年非OPEC供应预计同比增加62万桶/日，较上月预测下修6万桶/日，主要是美国与巴西产量继续下修。

OPEC产量：EIA口径9月OPEC产量环比增加38万桶/日至2716万桶/日，增产来自沙特、尼日利亚与安哥拉。OPEC口径9月OPEC产量环比增加49万桶/日至2733万桶/日，主要增产来自沙特，尼日利亚和伊拉克。IEA口径9月OPEC产量环比增加34万桶/日至26715万桶/日，OPEC整体合规率为118%较上月不变，增产来自沙特和伊拉克。

Call on OPEC：EIA对2021年COO预估为2798万桶/日，较上月上修了33万桶/日，根据EIA平衡表，一到四季度供需差值为-190万桶/日、-190万桶/日、-190万桶/日、-80万桶/日，三四季度的缺口较上月月报显著扩大。OPEC对2021年COO预估为2779万桶/日，较上月上修13万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2520、2700、2960、2940万桶/日，二季度下修，三四季度明显上修。IEA对2021年COO预估为2742万桶/日，较上月上修24万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2630、2650、2830、2850万桶/日，三四季度显著上修。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：多重因素共振，推动铜价大幅上涨

现货情况：

据SMM讯，10月15当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于69,925元/吨-74,050元/吨，且周中呈上行走势。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于贴水30元/吨至升水350元/吨，周中呈下行走势。上周铜价涨幅较多，沪铜10合约由最低68,930元吨升至最高75,990元/吨，周五夜盘收75,130元/吨，周度涨6,180元/吨。

观点：

宏观方面，美国短期违约风险短期解除，但是美国国会距离必须再次解决债务上限问题以及再次延长当前短期拨款法案，还有大约两个月的时间。美国CPI连续16个月上涨，9月CPI超市场预期，连续第5个月同比增长超过5%，为2008年7月以来最高水平。9月核心CPI同比上涨4%，符合预期。9月份CPI环比增幅的走高，“通胀暂时性”论调受到动摇，这也或将进一步强化美联储11月宣布Taper的决心。美国9月PPI同比上涨8.6%，略不及市场预期的8.7%，较前值8.3%继续攀升，创2010年11月以来的最高水平。细分项目上，商品价格主导9月PPI上涨，能源价格上涨2.8%，推动指数上涨占比高达40%。美国PPI今年稳步攀升。企业正将部分成本转嫁给了消费者，这部分解释了最近消费价格的加速上涨。截至10月9日美国当周首次申领失业金人数为29.3万，低于预期，自去年3月以来首次低于30万人。反映出在失业救济金发放的政策刺激和美国的供应链危机与“用工荒”，美国企业对工人的需求量回升明显的背景下，美国的就业情况得到了一定程度的改善。目前，花旗全球通胀意外指数飙升至自1999年有记录以来最高水平。过去一周，为应对通胀进一步加剧的影响，新加坡收紧货币政策，智利上调隔夜利率。在目前供应链危机、能源危机、通货膨胀的背景下，伦铜突破10000美元/吨，为6月以来首次。

国内方面，第四批抛储投放，中国9月社融规模增量、新增人民币贷款继续保持了8月的强劲增速，M2-M1剪刀差连续五个月呈扩大趋势。9月份，PPI同比上涨10.7%，涨幅比上月扩大1.2个百分点。CPI同比上涨环比转平。PPI高企的主要原因有三，第一是煤炭供求偏紧，第二是原油价格上行叠加能耗双控背景下的价格上行，第三是四大高耗能产业有色、水泥、化工、黑色金属的推动。李克强总理表示，继续采取措施防止大宗商品价格上涨向供应链下游传导。

供应方面，铜精矿方面，最新的铜精矿TC指数持续上行。智利国家铜业公司提议，2022年按较期货溢价/升水128美元的价格向欧洲客户供应铜，上调欧洲铜溢价31%。电解铜方面，据SMM讯，9月SMM中国电解铜产量为80.29万吨，环比降低2.0%，同比增加0.4%。受检修及限电的持续影响，预计10月国内电解铜产量为80.3万吨，环比将持平。根据海关总署公布的数据显示，中国9月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量环比增加3.1%，终结连降趋势，但仍不及往年同期。废铜方面，据Mysteel，随着铜价的上涨，精废价差不断扩大，主流地区光亮铜精废差从节前的740元/吨到目前的2183元/吨，扩大1443元/吨，处于合理价差上方，废铜经济性扩大或将扭转部分精铜对废铜的替代效应，在一定程度上缓解电解铜供应紧张的局面。

消费方面，据SMM讯，受限电持续影响，9月铜线缆开工率不及预期，且预计10月开工率将继续下滑。9月份精铜制杆企业开工率为71.83%，9月份铜板带箔企业整体开工率为80.71%，均较上月环比下降，预计10月份将继续下滑。据Mysteel，2021年9月铜管产量为11万吨，环比减少8.4%，同比减少1.4%；2021年9月铜管产能利用率为75.87%，环比减少8.2%，同比减少1.3%。终端消费方面，乘联会公布数据，2021年9月乘用车市场零售达到158.2万辆，同比下降17.3%。升贴水方面，过去一周铜价大幅拉升，现货市场均呈观望态度，鲜有买盘，沪铜升贴水下跌至均价贴水。华南铜升贴水受广东库存持续下降的影响，相对坚挺。进口方面：近期伦铜大幅拉升，内外比价有所下行，同时，近期进口盈亏为负，进口窗口关闭。LME目前呈现强back结构，最新的0-3月升贴水已经上行至历史高位。库存方面，LME及SHFE周度持续去库，社库及保税区库存均呈去库状态。

整体来看，宏观方面目前受海外供应链危机、能源危机以及通货膨胀的影响，推动铜价大幅上涨。同时美联储11月Taper预期加强。供应方面，受限电影响，电解铜产量小幅下滑，同时精废价差重回合理价差上方，废铜替代效应重现。消费方面，下游开工率及终端数据均较上期下降。库存方面，社库再度去库，库存拐点尚未出现。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险。

PTA：浙石化第四批进口配额没兑现，PX快速反弹

平衡表展望：PTA全检修兑现背景下，10月平衡表微幅累库；浙石化负荷偏低背景下，亚洲PX平衡表10-12月收紧为平衡甚至小幅去库。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费偏高，观望。（2）做缩PTA-PX价差。（3）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间