Iron Ore: The shipping data is stable, and the current price fluctuates weakly.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, the Statistics Bureau announced important economic data such as real estate and infrastructure, which was slightly better than market expectations. Once the data was issued, the prices of ferrous commodities rebounded collectively, ending their continuous decline last week. In the afternoon, the Union of Steel announced the global iron ore shipment data, of which the total global shipment volume was 30.6 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons on a weekly basis. Australia shipped 17.66 million tons, an increase of 620,000 tons on a weekly basis. Brazil shipped 5.88 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.21 million tons. The overall shipping data did not change much, and the iron ore futures and spot prices fluctuated weakly throughout the day. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 710 points, down 13 points from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore from ports fluctuated in the afternoon, with a cumulative drop of 5-15 throughout the day. PB fines 875-880, SSF 525-530. The price of imported iron ore from Qingdao Port fluctuated in the afternoon, with a cumulative drop of 10-15 throughout the day. PB fines 860-870, SSF 530-535, JMBF 755-760.

On the whole, the price of iron ore has fallen substantially and effectively, and the marginal supply has basically been suppressed. Coupled with the sharp increase in sea freight in September, the landed cost has increased, leading to a rebound in iron ore prices. With the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on launching the staggered production of the steel industry in the heating season of 2021-2022 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, later steel smelting is subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase. From the price point of view, the upper and lower space of iron ore is relatively limited, and the overall market price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of the iron ore 01-05 contract. Regardless of whether the iron ore 05 contract is facing multiple pressures from the decline in sea freight, the intensification of future supply and demand contradiction, and the change of exchange delivery rules, or the current spread of 1-5 close to about 20 yuan, it is worthy of attention.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The impact of rainfall weakened, and Thailand's raw material prices fell.

On October 18, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,690 (-60) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -965 yuan/ton (=10); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 86,736 (-1,469) lots, ,the short position was 127,393 (-830) lots, and the net short position was 40,657 (=639) lots.

On October 18, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,690 (-130) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,767.5 (+2.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,755 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,730 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -566 (=115) yuan/ton.

As of October 15: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 250,694 (+2,835) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 209,450 (+7,090) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 51.55 (-1.52), cup lump 47.55 (-0.45), latex 51.7 (-1), RSS3 53.83 (-1.37).

As of October 14, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.53% (-4.67%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 54.52 (+4.46%).

Opinion: With the weakening of concentrated rainfall in Thailand, raw material prices fell again yesterday. The recent relaxation of domestic power restrictions and the month-on-month recovery of automobile production and sales in September have led to a rebound in the operating rate of downstream tire factories, and the bearish on the demand side may be basically released. As domestic terminal sales will pick up at the end of the year in the future, the domestic tire operating rate is expected to maintain a slight rebound. However, due to the release of domestic production peak season, RU supply pressure gradually emerged. In the future, more attention will be paid to the drive of NR, and the focus will still be on supply. If domestic arrivals still maintain a slower pace, the inflection point of port inventory accumulation will be postponed to the future, bringing strong support under prices. We expect that there will be little domestic supply pressure before the end of October. Therefore, it is difficult for prices to fall sharply. But if there is no more supply tightening to cooperate, the RU2101 contract will be difficult to exceed the price of 15,000 yuan/ton.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The European natural gas crisis increases the cost of hydrogen production at refineries.

The impact of the European natural gas crisis on the oil industry is not only in terms of demand substitution, but also has a greater impact on refinery operations. The operation of the refinery requires the use of natural gas as a raw material to produce hydrogen. The soaring price of natural gas has led to a substantial increase in the cost of hydrogen production in the refinery. Although oil prices have risen this round, the crack spread of refined oil has also risen simultaneously. However, if the cost of hydrogen production at refineries is included, the production profits of European refineries will not increase significantly. In addition, European electricity prices have also risen sharply, so the willingness of refineries to significantly increase operating rates is relatively limited. In the future, the destocking of refined oil inventories will be faster than that of crude oil or will continue.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: The trend of de-stocking has been temporarily slowed down, and the volatility of copper prices has intensified.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, the spot market had rarely seen a large number of transactions under the continuous skyrocketing price, but sellers were unwilling to lower the premium at low level of inventory. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of around 260 yuan/ton, and the market inquiry atmosphere was poor. When individual holders lowered their quotations to a premium of 240 yuan/ton, there was even a trade purchase order to receive the goods. After that, the quotation of Standard-Grade Copper quickly stabilized at the premium of 250-260 yuan/ton. The downstream was holding a wait-and-see attitude under high market prices. For High-Grade Copper, due to the inflow of imported copper, it was difficult to see the spread between its quotation and Standard-Grade Copper, and the overall quotation stood at a premium of 280 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for Hydro-Copper had also weakened, and it is basically maintained rigid-demand procurement. The actual supply of Hydro-Copper was also limited. When the import window is closed, the holders supported the price at a premium of around 200 yuan/ton, and the buyers and sellers continue to maintain a see-saw posture.

On the macro level, according to a number of foreign media reports, Russia will continue to restrict natural gas supply to Europe next month. Although Russia insisted last week that it is ready to help stabilize the market, it still refuses to increase supply for Europe in November. The Governor of the Bank of England hinted the day before yesterday that as inflation risks rise, the Bank of England is preparing to raise interest rates. JPMorgan Chase expects to raise interest rates by 40 basis points in one go. Goldman Sachs predicts that it will raise interest rates in November, February and May. Credit Suisse expects that raising interest rates to 0.5% in the first quarter of next year may slow the economy. From a market point of view, the Bank of England’s interest rate hike is expected to mean that the fastest wave of policy tightening in this century is approaching. Yesterday, the monthly rate of US industrial output in September was -1.3%, which was the first negative value since February. The lower-than-expected September data showed that manufacturers continue to be dragged down by the chaos in the supply chain. Following the recent large fluctuations in copper prices, the London Metal Exchange has issued a statement that it is closely monitoring price fluctuations in the copper market. If necessary, measures can be taken to ensure a good market order. Domestically, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the first three quarters increased by 9.8% year-on-year, which was higher than the expected target of more than 6%. Among them, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.9% year-on-year. A number of macro indicators fell back in September. In September, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.1% year-on-year, a drop of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. From January to September, fixed asset investment increased by 7.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from January to August. According to a reporter's question by the spokesperson of the Bureau of Statistics, the tight energy supply is staged and its impact on the economy is controllable. Regarding the real estate market, it is expected to maintain steady development. With regard to monetary policy, there is still a lot of room for timely introduction of effective measures in accordance with changes in the situation to promote stable economic operation.

On the whole, the extent of LME destocking has dropped significantly. In China, inventories have accumulated, and copper prices have intensified volatility. However, the current rising cost under the threat of the energy crisis and the resulting surge in inflation expectations are still relatively favorable for copper prices.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Processing costs have risen again, and filament production and sales have strengthened.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the PTA full overhaul, the balance sheet in October showed a slight accumulation of inventory. Under the background of low load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the Asian PX balance sheet was tightened to balance or even slightly destocked from October to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: The processing fee is too high, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude;

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：发运数据平稳 期现价格弱势震荡

观点与逻辑：

昨日，统计局公布了地产、基建等重要经济数据，该数据略好于市场预期，一经发出黑色商品集体反弹，结束了上周的连续下跌。午后，钢联公布了新口径全球铁矿发运数据，其中新口径全球发运总量3060万吨，周度环比增加57万吨，澳洲发运1766万吨，周度环比增加62万吨，巴西发运588万吨，周度环比减少121万吨。此发运数据整体变化不大，铁矿期、现货全天弱势震荡。至收盘，铁矿01合约收于710点，较上一交易日下降13点。现货方面，曹妃甸港进口铁矿午后价格震荡运行。全天累计下跌5-15。PB粉875-880，超特粉525-530。青岛港进口铁矿午后价格震荡运行，全天累计下跌10-15。PB粉860-870，超特粉530-535，金布巴粉755-760。基差方面，期现价差变化不大，超特粉仍处于几乎接近平水水平，PB粉围绕在250附近。

整体来看，铁矿价格经过大幅有效的下跌，基本实现了对边际供给的抑制，叠加9月份海运费大幅上涨，增加了到岸成本，铁矿价格有所反弹，随着工信部发布关于开展京津冀及周边地区2021-2022年采暖季钢铁行业错峰生产的通知，后期钢铁冶炼受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。从价格来看，铁矿上下空间均较为有限，整体呈现易跌难涨格局，建议单边观望为主。另外，推荐关注铁矿01-05合约正套机会，无论从铁矿05合约面临海运费回落、未来供需矛盾加剧及交易所交割规则改变的多重压力，还是当前1-5接近20元左右的价差来看都值得关注。

策略：

单边：中性

套利：多材空矿、01-05正套

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶： 降雨影响减弱，泰国原料价格回落

18号，RU主力收盘14690（-60）元/吨，混合胶报价11900元/吨（-150），主力合约基差-965元/吨（+10）；前二十主力多头持仓86736（-1469），空头持仓127393（-830），净空持仓40657（+639）。

18号，NR主力收盘价11690（-130）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1767.5（+2.5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1755美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1730（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-566（+115）元/吨。

截至10月15日：交易所总库存250694（+2835），交易所仓单209450（+7090）。

原料：生胶片51.55（-1.52），杯胶47.55（-0.45），胶水51.7（-1），烟片53.83（-1.37）。

截止10月14日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.53%（+4.67%），国内半钢胎开工率为54.52%(+4.46%）。

观点：随着泰国集中降雨减弱，昨天原料价格重新回落。近期国内限电放松以及9月汽车产销的环比回暖使得下游轮胎厂开工率有所回升，需求端的利空或基本释放完毕，因后期国内还有年末的终端销售回暖，预计国内轮胎开工率维持小幅回升势头。而供应因国内产量旺季释放，RU供应压力逐步显现，后期更多关注NR的带动，焦点仍在于供应。如果国内到港量仍维持较慢的节奏，则港口库存的累库拐点将要后移，带来价格下方支撑仍较强。我们预计，10月底前，国内供应压力不大，因此，价格难以大幅回落，但没有更多的供应紧缩配合，RU2101合约上方15000元/吨一线难以逾越。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：欧洲天然气危机增加炼厂制氢成本

欧洲天然气危机对于石油产业的影响不仅仅是需求替代方面，对于炼厂运营也有较大影响，炼厂运行需要使用天然气作为原料生产氢气，天然气价格的飙升导致炼厂制氢成本大幅增加，虽然本轮油价上涨，成品油裂解价差也同步上涨，但如果把炼厂制氢成本包含进去，欧洲炼厂的生产利润增加不显著，另外欧洲电价也大幅上涨，因此炼厂大幅提升开工率的意愿较为有限，未来成品油库存去化快于原油或将延续。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：去库态势有所暂缓，铜价震荡加剧

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场在盘面连续疯涨态势下难闻有大量成交，但卖方在低库存下不愿降升水出货。早市平水铜始报于升水260元/吨左右，市场基本以长单交易为主，市场询价氛围清淡，个别持货商一度曾降至升水240元/吨竟然有收货的贸易买盘入市，很快升水维稳于250-260元/吨区间，下游在盘面高企之下仅做观望。好铜则由于进口铜货源流入，报价与平水铜难见价差，整体围绕升水280元/吨左右。下游对湿法铜需求也有所转弱，基本以刚需买盘为主，实际湿法铜货源也有限，进口窗口关闭之下持货商挺价于升水200元/吨附近，买卖双方继续拉锯。

宏观方面，根据多家外媒报道，俄罗斯下个月将继续限制对欧洲的天然气供应，尽管俄罗斯上周坚称已准备好帮助稳定市场，但其仍拒绝为欧洲增加11月份的供应。英国央行行长前日暗示，随着通胀风险上升，英国央行正准备加息。摩根大通预计可能一口气加息40个基点；高盛预测将在 11 月、2 月和 5 月加息；瑞信预计明年第一季度加息至 0.5%可能会放缓经济。从市场观点来看，英国央行加息预期或将意味着本世纪最快的政策紧缩浪潮将至。昨日美国9月工业产出月率录得-1.3%，为2月以来首次录得负值，低于预期的9月份数据表明，生产商继续受到供应链混乱的拖累。伴随近期铜价的大幅波动，伦敦金属交易所发声称，正密切监控铜市场的价格波动。如有必要，可以采取措施确保市场秩序良好。国内方面，根据国家统计局发布的数据显示，前三季度GDP同比增长9.8%，高于6%以上的预期目标。其中，三季度GDP同比增长4.9%。9月份多项宏观指标出现回落。9月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.1%，较上月回落2.2个百分点；1月至9月固定资产投资同比增长7.3%，较1月至8月回落1.6个百分点。根据统计局新闻发言人的答记者问，关于能源供应方面偏紧是阶段性的，对经济的影响可控；关于房地产市场有望保持平稳发展；关于货币政策仍有较大空间，能够及时根据形势变化推出有力措施，促进经济稳定运行。

整体看来，LME去库幅度大大下降，国内出现累库，铜价震荡加剧。不过当下在能源危机威胁下致使的成本端抬升，以及由此引发的通胀预期的飙涨对于铜价而言仍然相对有利。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：加工费再度回升，长丝产销走强

平衡表展望：PTA全检修兑现背景下，10月平衡表微幅累库；浙石化负荷偏低背景下，亚洲PX平衡表10-12月收紧为平衡甚至小幅去库。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费偏高，观望。（2）做缩PTA-PX价差。（3）跨期：1-5价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间