Iron Ore: There was a clear correction in black commodities, but iron ore was on the strong side.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, black products fell collectively. However, iron ore futures and spot are relatively stronger than other black varieties. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 710 points, up 3 points from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore from Caofeidian Port remained stable throughout the day, the market sentiment and transaction were relatively insipid. PB fines reported 880 yuan/ton, and SSF 525 yuan/ton. Qingdao Port SSF reported 526 yuan/ton. In terms of transactions, a total of 0.686 million tons of iron ore in major ports nationwide was traded yesterday, a decrease of 41.9% from the previous day. A total of 955,000 tons of forward spot transactions (8 lots) have been traded, a decrease of 51.5% from the previous day.

On the whole, the price of iron ore has fallen substantially and effectively, and the marginal supply has basically been suppressed. Coupled with the sharp increase in sea freight in September, the landed cost has increased, leading to a rebound in iron ore prices. With the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on launching the staggered production of the steel industry in the heating season of 2021-2022 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, later steel smelting is subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase. From the price point of view, the upper and lower space of iron ore is relatively limited, and the overall market price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of the iron ore 01-05 contract. Regardless of whether the iron ore 05 contract is facing multiple pressures from the decline in sea freight, the intensification of future supply and demand contradiction, and the change of exchange delivery rules, or the current spread of 1-5 close to about 20 yuan, it is worthy of attention.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Market sentiment turned warmer, and rubber prices continued to rise.

On October 20, the most-active RU contract closed at 15,265 (+10) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,925 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1015 yuan/ton (-85); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 93,766 (-714) lots, the short position was 132,429 (-2,747) lots, and the net short position was 38,663 (-2,033) lots.

On October 20, the most-active NR contract closed at 12,190 (-45) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,840 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,815 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,775 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -818 (+3) yuan/ton.

As of October 15: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 250,694 (+2,835) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 209,450 (+7,090) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 51.85 (+0.32), cup lump 48.55 (+0.75), latex 52.5 (+0.8), RSS3 56.05 (+0.16).

As of October 14, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.53% (-4.67%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 54.52 (+4.46%).

Opinion: At present, the volume of arrivals at ports is not large due to delays in logistics. At the same time, due to the rebound in downstream demand for goods, the outbound continued to rise, resulting in a continuous decline in domestic port inventory. The expected turning point of accumulated inventory has not yet come, and it is expected that inventory will come to an inflection point when overseas production rebounds in November. Therefore, the supply and demand reflected in the current domestic inventory is still showing a tight pattern. Driven by funds, the price of rubber continued to rise yesterday. Due to the small improvement in fundamentals and limited spot follow-up, the spread between futures and spot prices continued to widen this week. It is still recommended to be cautious about the rise. However, before the domestic port inventory has no substantial accumulation, it also means that the domestic supply pressure is small, and the price is under strong support.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: EIA crude oil inventories fell more than expected.

Judging from the high-frequency consumption data, the recent global transportation demand is still in the trend of continuous recovery. Although the United States and Europe are now close to their pre-epidemic levels, the demand recovery in the Asia-Pacific region (except China) is more significant. In addition, with regard to aviation, with the vaccinations and the significant relaxation of travel across countries, aviation consumption continues to recover. However, the data in recent weeks have shown a slight slowdown from the recovery in the first half of the year. In addition to the recovery of traditional consumption, the increase in natural gas substitution demand in the fourth quarter can bring at least an additional demand of 500,000 barrels per day. With OPEC increasing production as originally planned, we believe that the gap in the fourth quarter will be at least 1 million barrels per day. The trend of oil destocking will continue, and the current total global crude oil inventories have fallen to pre-epidemic levels.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: LME responded to the drop in copper stocks, which led to increased fluctuations in copper prices.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market has fallen sharply with market prices, attracting downstream buyers to purchase on demand when prices are low. Coupled with low market inventory, holders continue to support prices, and premiums and discounts continue to rise. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper, which was quoted at a premium of 380-390 yuan/ton, was looted by the market. Even if the holders raised their quotations to a premium of 400-420 yuan/ton, the transactions and inquiries still continued. At the same time, as the market price drops again, it has once again attracted some downstream purchases. Until the holders continued to raise the price to a premium of 450 yuan/ton, the transaction calmed down. The price of High-Grade Copper rose along with the price of Standard-Grade Copper, and its quotation rose directly from the price of a premium of 450 yuan/ton to a premium of 500 yuan/ton The quotation in late afternoon trading has exceeded the premium of 500 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction of High-Grade Copper was not as good as that of Standard-Grade Copper. The supply of Hydro-Copper was scarce. In the morning session, some CMCCs were sold at a premium of 260-280 yuan/ton. UMMC was instantly sold out at a premium of 300-320 yuan/ton, showing the scarcity of Hydro-Copper sources. With the increase in Standard-Grade Copper 's quotation, the quotations of Hydro-Copper and Low-Quality Copper had exceeded the premium of 350 yuan/ton, and the quotation was almost close to 400 yuan/ton.

On the macro front, Fed officials Quarles and Meester delivered speeches in support of the November meeting to reduce debt purchases. According to data released yesterday, the UK inflation rate in September unexpectedly fell from 3.2% in August to 3.1%, which lowered the market’s expectations for the Bank of England’s interest rate hike after the November 4th policy meeting. In the context of the recent surge in copper prices and the continuous decline in overseas inventories, the LME began investigating copper transactions the day before yesterday, and stated that it will revise the copper loan rules, impose restrictions on the spot premium of the next day's contract, and introduce a delayed delivery mechanism for certain contracts. The market believes that Trafigura Group accounts for a large part of the large number of copper orders withdrawn from LME warehouses. Trafigura’s spokesperson stated in an email yesterday: “The cancellation of warehouse receipts is a common practice after Trafigura’s and LME’s open and transparent negotiations.” It also mentioned that the inventory was shipped from the warehouse to meet the needs of its end users, especially in Major consumption regions such as Asia and Europe.

On the domestic front, the China Securities Regulatory Commission made a statement yesterday, proposing further services to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities and strengthen the supervision of the futures market. At the same time, the supervisory authority will maintain a zero-tolerance high-pressure posture of illegal and irregular actions in the futures market, increase the crackdown on illegal and irregular actions such as manipulation, and maintain a good market order.

On the whole, LME has taken corresponding measures to deal with the decline in copper inventory, which has led to increased fluctuations in copper prices. Investors are advised to maintain a cautiously bullish attitude for the time being.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced the load again, and the PX processing fee was gradually adjusted at the low price.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the PTA full overhaul, the balance sheet in October showed a slight accumulation of inventory. Under the background of low load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the Asian PX balance sheet was tightened to balance or even slightly destocked from October to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: The high PTA processing fee is expected to shrink. PX processing fee is lower on the left side and rebound is expected. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude towards the absolute price of PTA.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿:黑色商品回调明显，铁矿逆市偏强运行

观点与逻辑：

昨日，黑色商品集体受挫，甚至出现跌停潮。但铁矿期、现货相对其它黑色品种偏强运行。至收盘，铁矿01合约收于710点，较上一交易日上涨3点。现货方面，曹妃甸港进口铁矿全天价格基本持稳，市场交投情绪较为冷清，成交一般。PB粉880元/吨，超特粉525元/吨。青岛港，超特粉525元/吨。成交方面，昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交68.6万吨，环比下降41.9%，远期现货累计成交95.5万吨（8笔），环比下降51.5%。基差方面，期现价差没有明显变化，超特粉仍处于几乎接近平水水平，PB粉基差在250附近。

整体来看，铁矿价格经过大幅有效的下跌，基本实现了对边际供给的抑制，叠加9月份海运费大幅上涨，增加了到岸成本，铁矿价格有所反弹，随着工信部发布关于开展京津冀及周边地区2021-2022年采暖季钢铁行业错峰生产的通知，后期钢铁冶炼受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。从价格来看，铁矿上下空间均较为有限，整体呈现易跌难涨格局，建议单边观望为主。另外，推荐关注铁矿01-05合约正套机会，无论从铁矿05合约面临海运费回落、未来供需矛盾加剧及交易所交割规则改变的多重压力，还是当前1-5接近20元左右的价差来看都值得关注。

策略：

单边：中性

套利：多材空矿、01-05正套

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：情绪转暖，胶价继续上扬

20号，RU主力收盘15265（+10）元/吨，混合胶报价12925元/吨（0），主力合约基差-1015元/吨（-85）；前二十主力多头持仓93766（-714），空头持仓132429（-2747），净空持仓38663（-2033）。

20号，NR主力收盘价12190（-45）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1840（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1815美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1775（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-818（+3）元/吨。

截至10月15日：交易所总库存250694（+2835），交易所仓单209450（+7090）。

原料：生胶片51.85（+0.32），杯胶48.55（+0.75），胶水52.5（+0.8），烟片56.05（+0.16）。

截止10月14日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.53%（+4.67%），国内半钢胎开工率为54.52%(+4.46%）。

观点：国内目前因物流推迟导致到港量不大，同时因下游拿货需求回升，出库继续回升，导致国内港口库存持续下滑，预期的累库拐点尚未来临，预计库存将在11月份海外产量回升之际，有望迎来拐点。因此，当下国内库存所反映出来的供需仍呈现偏紧格局，在资金推动下，昨天胶价继续上扬。因基本面改善较小，现货跟进有限，导致本周期现价差持续拉大，仍建议谨慎对待上涨，但在国内港口库存没有实质累库之前，也意味着国内供应压力较小，价格下方支撑强。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油 : EIA原油库存降幅超预期

从高频消费数据来看，近期全球交通需求仍在持续恢复的趋势当中，虽然美国和欧洲目前已经接近疫情前水平，但目前亚太地区（除中国以外）的需求复苏较为显著，此外，航空方面，随着疫苗接种还有各国旅行显著的放松，航空消费也在继续复苏，不过近几周数量显示较上半年复苏的速度略有放缓，而除了传统消费的复苏以外，四季度天然气替代需求的增量至少能带来50万桶/日的额外需求，在欧佩克按原计划增产的情况下，我们认为四季度缺口至少在100万桶/日，石油去库存的趋势仍将延续，而当前全球原油总库存已经降至疫情前水平。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：LME出手应对铜库存下降，铜价波动加大

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场则随着盘面的大幅回落，吸引下游逢低按需补货，外加市场库存偏低，持货商持续挺价下，升贴水持续走高。早市平水铜始报于升水380-390元/吨遭到市场哄抢，持货商一路上抬报价至升水400-420元/吨后成交询盘不断，与此同时，随着盘面的再度走低，再度吸引部分下游入市采购，持货商继续提价至升水450元/吨，成交趋于平静。好铜价格则跟随平水铜水涨船高，自升水450元/吨附近直接拉涨至升水500元/吨，午市尾盘报价升水已超500元/吨，但实际成交不及平水铜。湿法铜货源则因为稀缺，早市有部分CMCC可成交于升水260-280元/吨，UMMC在升水300-320元/吨被秒收，可见湿法铜货源的稀缺，随着平水铜报价整体重心小幅上移，湿法铜及差铜报价已越过升水350元/吨，报价几近400元/吨。

观点：

昨日日盘铜价低开震荡，12合约表现空头增仓入场。夜盘铜价重返强势，12合约表现多头增仓入场。

宏观方面，美联储官员夸尔斯、梅斯特发表讲话，支持11月会议缩减购债。昨日公布数据，英国9月的通胀率从8月份的3.2%意外下滑至3.1%，使市场此前对于英国央行在11月4日的政策会议后加息的预期有所下降。在近日铜价连续飙升、海外库存持续下降的背景下，前日LME开始对铜交易进行调查，并表示将修改铜贷款规则，对明日次日合约的现货溢价设置限制，对某些合约引入延迟交付机制。市场认为在从LME仓库撤出铜的大量订单中，托克集团占了很大一部分。昨日托克发言人在电子邮件中声明：“注销仓单是托克与LME进行公开、透明洽谈后的常规做法。”并提及从仓库运出库存以满足其终端用户的需求，特别是在亚洲和欧洲等主要消费地区。

国内方面，昨日证监会发言，提出进一步服务大宗商品保供稳价，强化期货市场监管，同时保持对期货市场违法违规行为零容忍的高压态势，加大对操纵等违法违规行为的打击力度，维护市场良好秩序。

整体看来，LME出手应对铜库存下降，铜价波动加大，暂时仍维持谨慎看多的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：浙石化再度降负，PX加工费逐步筑底

平衡表展望：PTA全检修兑现背景下，10月平衡表微幅累库；浙石化负荷偏低背景下，亚洲PX平衡表10-12月收紧为平衡甚至小幅去库。

策略建议：（1）单边：PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧偏低有反弹预期，PTA绝对价格观望。（2）做缩PTA-PX价差。（3）跨期：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间