Iron Ore: Steel consumption is far less than expected, and iron ore futures and spot markets fell again.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, the Steel Union announced the latest data of five building materials commonly used in construction. Among them, the balance sheet demand of rebar was 2.9137 million tons, a week-on-week drop of 323,500 tons, which was significantly lower than the market consensus. Affected by this news, ferrous commodities collectively fell again yesterday. Both iron ore futures and spot prices fell. To the close, the Iron Ore 01 contract closed at 650 points, down 60 points from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Caofeidian Port remained stable throughout the day, the market sentiment and the transaction was relatively insipid. The current PB fines reported 820 fell by 60, Carajás iron ore fines (SFCJ) 1060 fell by 60, and SSF 495 fell by 30 (yuan/ton). Qingdao Port, PB fines stood at 818 yuan/ton, and SSF 485 yuan/ton. In terms of transactions, a total of 830,000 tons of iron ore in major ports nationwide were traded yesterday, a decrease of 21% from the previous month. A total of 140,000 tons of forward spot transactions (1 transaction) were traded, a decrease of 60.5% from the previous month. In terms of basis, futures and spot prices fell together, with no significant changes in basis.

On the whole, the price of iron ore has fallen substantially and effectively, and the marginal supply has basically been suppressed. Coupled with the sharp increase in sea freight in September, the landed cost has increased, leading to a rebound in iron ore prices. With the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on launching the staggered production of the steel industry in the heating season of 2021-2022 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, later steel smelting is subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase. From the price point of view, the upper and lower space of iron ore is relatively limited, and the overall market price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of the iron ore 01-05 contract. Regardless of whether the iron ore 05 contract is facing multiple pressures from the decline in sea freight, the intensification of future supply and demand contradiction, and the change of exchange delivery rules, or the current spread of 1-5 close to about 20 yuan, it is worthy of attention.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Non-standard spreads widened.

On October 21, the most-active RU contract closed at 15,235 (-20) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,925 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -285 yuan/ton (+750); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 87,301 (-7,179) lots, the short position was 125,020 (-10,156) lots, and the net short position was 37,719 (-2,977) lots.

On October 21, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,910 (-280) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,825 (-15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,815 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,775 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -570 (+248) yuan/ton.

As of October 15: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 250,694 (+2,835) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 209,450 (+7,090) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 51.85 (0), cup lump 49 (+0.45), latex 53 (+0.5), RSS3 57.62 (+1.57).

As of October 14, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.53% (-4.67%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 54.52 (+4.46%).

Opinion: At present, the volume of arrivals at ports is not large due to delays in logistics. At the same time, due to the rebound in downstream demand for goods, the outbound continued to rise, resulting in a continuous decline in domestic port inventory. In the context of continued domestic destocking, the price of rubber ushered in a sharp rise this week. However, the actual fundamental improvement is relatively limited, which may be mainly due to relatively low prices, so it is favored by funds. If the logistics can continue to improve in the future, it is expected that the inflection point of domestic inventory accumulation will occur when overseas production rebounds in November. Therefore, the current supply and demand reflected in domestic inventories still show a tight pattern.

However, before the domestic port inventory has no substantial accumulation, it also means that the domestic supply pressure is small, and the price is under strong support.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The shortage of domestic diesel resources will tighten refined oil exports.

Since September, the domestic diesel price has risen by nearly 60%, and the price is close to 8,000 yuan/ton. Domestic diesel resources continue to be tight, and social inventories have also fallen to a low level. The shortage of domestic diesel supply mainly comes from two aspects. On the one hand, it is difficult to increase the operating rate of private refineries due to power curtailment and equipment failures. In addition, import quotas are also an important factor restricting operating rates. On the other hand, diesel consumption continued to improve. The traditional seasonal consumption brought by "Golden September and Silver October" and the incremental demand brought by diesel generators have made diesel prices continue to rise under the dual influence of supply and demand. At present, there are preliminary signs of oil shortage in China, and the main refineries have begun to transfer exports to domestic sales. It is expected that the net export volume of domestic refined oil products will further decline in the fourth quarter, which will drive the crack spread of Singapore refined oil.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: Demand is poor, but supply-side interference and inflation expectations are still beneficial to copper prices.

Spot: According to SMM, the market price stopped falling and rebounded from a low level. However, due to a large number of buying orders yesterday in the spot market and the intention of stockholders to stabilize prices, trading activity was significantly lower than yesterday, and the premium showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 450-460 yuan/ton. In the morning market, quotations were still low, and when the supply of goods was tight, holders were unwilling to adjust prices significantly, resulting in a stalemate in the market, with only a small number of transactions. After the second trading session, some traders led the market to lower the price of Standard-Grade Copper at a premium of 420-430 yuan/ton, but buying interest had dropped significantly. After 11 o'clock, some sources with a premium of 400 yuan/ton had already flown out. High-Grade Copper sources with reasonable quotations are in short supply. Only ENM was relatively cheap, and the overall quotation stood at 500-520 yuan/ton. Guixi Copper once again led the market, and its quotation was firm at a premium of around 550 yuan/ton, but the transaction was still seriously inferior to Standard-Grade Copper. Hydro-Copper and Low-Quality Copper had relatively good supply. The quotations of NORLISK, UMMC and other brands had shown a downward trend, from 350 yuan/ton in the morning market to 300 yuan/ton. Although the downstream replenishment was not as good as yesterday, the inquiries were still active and had the ability to control and lower prices.

On the macro level, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated the prerequisites for increasing the supply of natural gas, saying that if the European Union approves the Beixi No. 2 pipeline, Russia's natural gas supply to Europe may increase by 10%. Putin spoke again yesterday that Russia may increase its supply of natural gas to Europe. European natural gas prices this week have fallen from their highs last week. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States dropped more than expected last week, setting a new low since the outbreak of the epidemic in a year and a half. In September, the number of existing home sales in the US hit an eight-month high. The data strengthened the Fed’s Taper expectations. The five-year US Tips bond break-even inflation rate reached 2.92%, a record high. Yesterday, President of the US House of Representatives Pelosi said that the Democratic Party’s spending plan is expected to be passed soon, but the scale will be reduced. The expenditure plan may be less than expected, which will have a certain impact on market sentiment. Different from the previous market’s trading logic for the energy crisis and inflation, as Eastern Europe and Russia re-imposed the blockade due to the impact of the new crown and threatened the global economic recovery, the market’s worries about global growth have intensified, and U.S. Oil recorded its biggest decline since August.

Domestically, after the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) studied the implementation of interventions in coal prices in accordance with the law, the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday issued a plan to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key metallurgical and building materials industries with strict energy efficiency constraints, and jointly issued several opinions on strict energy efficiency constraints to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas. The National Development and Reform Commission also announced at night that it will carry out a special survey of coal production and prices as well as circulation costs. The multi-day propaganda of the policy has gradually fermented the impact on the bulk commodity sector, causing the thermal coal to fall for 3 consecutive days, and the ferrous products have fallen and hit their down limits yesterday. At the same time, yesterday's steel data showed that the consumption of threaded steel fell by 30% year-on-year. The decline in domestic demand has had an impact on the consumption logic of "Golden September and Silver October".

On the whole, the decline in domestic demand data has an impact on the market, but supply-side interference will not subside due to lower energy prices. And the trend of inflation expectations is relatively favorable for copper products. Therefore, for the time being, it is recommended that investors still adopt a bargain-hunting strategy.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The terminal load has not risen significantly, and the PTA device is restored.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the PTA full overhaul, the balance sheet in October showed a slight accumulation of inventory. Under the background of low load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the Asian PX balance sheet was tightened to balance or even slightly destocked from October to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: The high PTA processing fee is expected to shrink. PX processing fee is lower on the left side and rebound is expected. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude towards the absolute price of PTA.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：钢材消费大幅不及预期 铁矿期现再次受挫

观点与逻辑：

昨日，钢联公布最新五大材数据，其中螺纹钢表需291.37万吨，周度环比下降-32.35万吨，大幅低于市场普遍预期，受此消息影响，昨日黑色商品集体再次受挫，连续出现跌停潮。铁矿期、现货齐跌。至收盘，铁矿01合约收于650点，较上一交易日下跌60点。现货方面，曹妃甸港进口铁矿全天价格基本持稳，市场交投情绪较为冷清，成交一般。现PB粉820跌60，卡粉1060跌60，超特粉495跌30（元/吨）。青岛港，PB粉818元/吨，超特粉485元/吨。成交方面，昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交83万吨，环比下降21%，远期现货累计成交14万吨（1笔），环比下降60.5%。基差方面，期现齐跌，基差没有明显变化。

整体来看，铁矿价格经过前期大幅下跌后，实现了对边际供给的抑制，叠加9月份海运费大幅上涨，增加了到岸成本，铁矿价格有所反弹，随着工信部发布关于开展京津冀及周边地区2021-2022年采暖季钢铁行业错峰生产的通知，后期钢铁冶炼受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。从价格来看，铁矿上下空间均较为有限，整体呈现易跌难涨格局，建议单边观望为主。另外，推荐关注铁矿01-05合约正套机会，无论从铁矿05合约面临海运费回落、未来供需矛盾加剧及交易所交割规则改变的多重压力，还是当前1-5接近20元左右的价差来看都值得关注。

策略：

单边：中性

套利：多材空矿、01-05正套

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：现货跟进有限，非标价差拉大

21号，RU主力收盘15235（-20）元/吨，混合胶报价12925元/吨（0），主力合约基差-285元/吨（+750）；前二十主力多头持仓87301（-7179），空头持仓125020（-10156），净空持仓37719（-2977）。

21号，NR主力收盘价11910（-280）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1825（-15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1815美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1775（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-570（+248）元/吨。

截至10月15日：交易所总库存250694（+2835），交易所仓单209450（+7090）。

原料：生胶片51.85（0），杯胶49（+0.45），胶水53（+0.5），烟片57.62（+1.57）。

截止10月14日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.53%（+4.67%），国内半钢胎开工率为54.52%(+4.46%）。

观点：国内目前因物流推迟导致到港量不大，同时因下游拿货需求回升，出库继续回升，导致港口库存持续下滑，在国内持续去库背景下，本周胶价迎来大幅上涨。但实际基本面改善较为有限，或主要因处于相对的价格低位，受到资金青睐。如果后期物流可以继续改善，预期国内的累库拐点将出现在11月份海外产量回升之际。因此，当下国内库存所反映的供需仍呈现偏紧格局。在国内港口库存没有实质累库之前，也意味着国内供应压力较小，价格下方支撑强。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：国内柴油资源紧张将收紧成品油出口

9月份以来，国内柴油价格涨幅近60%，价格接近8000元/吨，国内柴油资源持续紧张，社会库存也降至低位，国内柴油的紧张主要是来自两个方面，一方面是由于限电以及装置故障，民营炼厂开工率难以提升，此外进口配额也是制约开工率的重要因素；另一方面，柴油消费持续向好，金九银十带来的传统季节性消费叠加柴油发电机带来的增量需求，供需双重影响之下，柴油价格持续上行，目前国内已经出现了油荒的初步迹象，主营炼厂开始将出口转内销，预计四季度国内成品油净出口量还会进一步下降，从而拉动新加坡成品油裂解价差。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：需求不佳 但供应端干扰及通胀预期仍对铜价有利

现货方面：据SMM讯，盘面表现止跌低位回升，但现货市场因昨日已有大量买盘，外加持货商有意持坚价格，交投活跃度明显不及昨日，升水呈现先扬后抑态势。早市平水铜始报于升水450-460元/吨，早市盘面尚低，在货源偏紧的情况下，持货商不愿大幅调价，出现拉锯僵持，仅有少量贸易商有压价买入补货，第二时段后，出现部分贸易商引领压价于升水420-430元/吨货源流出，但买兴已有明显下降，11点后，已有部分升水400元/吨的货源流出。好铜报价货源紧缺，仅有ENM可相对便宜，早盘可在升水500元/吨以下觅得，整体报至升水500-520元/吨，贵溪铜再次引领坚挺于升水550元/吨附近，成交依然严重不及平水铜。湿法铜及差铜有部分货源到货，NORLISK、UMMC等品牌报价下整体呈现一路下调态势，自早市的350元/吨上方逐渐降至升水300元/吨，下游补货虽不及昨日，但询盘依然积极，有控价压价能力。

观点：昨日日盘铜价尾盘快速下探，12合约表现空头增仓入场。夜盘铜价持续弱势，12合约表现多头减仓离场。

宏观方面，俄罗斯总统普京重申增加天然气供应的先决条件，称若欧盟批准北溪2号管线，俄方对欧洲的天然气供应可能增加10%。昨日普京再次发言称俄罗斯有可能增加对欧洲的天然气供应。欧洲天然气本周价格较上周高位回落。美国上周首次申请失业救济人数超预期下降，再创疫情爆发一年半来新低。9月美国成屋销售户数创八个月新高，数据加强美联储Taper预期，美国五年Tips债券损益平衡通胀率达2.92%，创下历史新高。昨日美国众议院院长佩洛西表示，预计民主党的支出计划将很快通过，但规模将会缩小。支出计划可能不及预期对市场情绪造成一定影响。区别于前期市场对于能源危机及通胀的交易逻辑，由于东欧和俄罗斯受新冠影响重新实施封锁并威胁全球经济复苏，市场对于全球增长忧虑加剧，美油创8月以来最大跌幅。

国内方面，继前日发改委研究依法实施干预煤价后，昨日发改委发布冶金、建材重点行业严格能效约束推动节能降碳方案，联合其他部门发布严格能效约束推动重点领域节能降碳的若干意见，还在夜间公布，开展了煤炭生产和价格以及流通成本的专项调查。政策的多日喊话，对大宗商品板块影响逐渐发酵，动力煤连续3日跌停，黑色系品种昨日多类跌停。同时，昨日钢材数据表明螺纹消费同比下降30%，内需的下滑对于金九银十消费逻辑产生冲击。

整体看来，内需数据下滑冲击，不过供应端干扰并不会因为部分能源价格的走低便消退，并且通胀预期的态势对于铜品种也相对有利，因此暂时仍以逢低吸入为主。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：终端负荷仍未见明显抬升，PTA装置恢复

平衡表展望：PTA全检修兑现背景下，10月平衡表微幅累库；浙石化负荷偏低背景下，亚洲PX平衡表10-12月收紧为平衡甚至小幅去库。

策略建议：（1）单边：PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧偏低有反弹预期，PTA绝对价格观望。（2）做缩PTA-PX价差。（3）跨期：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间