Iron Ore: Steel consumption fell short of expectations, and the iron ore is now easy to fall but hard to rise.

Last week, the national policy's deep disturbance of carbon elements, the extremely poor real estate data, and the production, sales and inventory data of the five building materials commonly used in construction announced by the Iron and Steel Union were significantly lower than the market's consensus. Against the backdrop of multiple negative factors, ferrous commodities fell collectively. Iron ore futures and spot prices are also weak and fluctuating. To the close of last Friday, the Iron Ore 01 contract closed at 651 points, down 85 points from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the lowest price of PB fines in the four ports was 819 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, and SSF was 484 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton. In terms of basis, both futures and spot have fallen, with no significant changes in basis.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total global shipment volume was 30.6 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons on a weekly basis. Among them, Australia shipped 17.66 million tons, an increase of 620,000 tons on a weekly basis. Brazil shipped 5.88 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.21 million tons. Non-mainstream shipments amounted to 7.06 million tons, an increase of 1.16 million tons on a weekly basis.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 76.55%, a decrease of 1.52% from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 11.73%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 80.05%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.29%. The profit rate of steel mills was 88.74%, the same month-on-month, down 1.30% year-on-year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.1458 million tons, down 16,400 tons from the previous month and 312,100 tons year-on-year. The blast furnace operating rate of 163 steel mills was 53.18%, down 0.83% month-on-month, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.16%, down 2.26% month-on-month. The utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity was 67.67%, down 16.86% from the same period last year, and the steel mill profit rate was 77.30%. The profit rate of steel mills was 77.30%, unchanged from the previous month.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across China was 14045.48, an increase of 147.29 month-on-month; the average daily port congestion volume increased by 8.91 to 276.33. Australian ore 6799.20 increased by 87.9, Brazilian ore 4649.80 increased by 20.8, trade ore 8291.00 increased by 102.1, pellets 373.40 decreased by 18.19, iron ore concentrates1023.37 increased by 1.63, lump ore 2289.62 increased by 59.94, coarse powder 10359.09 increased by 103.91; the number of ships in port decreased by 6 to 202.

On the whole, the price of iron ore has fallen substantially and effectively, and the marginal supply has basically been suppressed. Coupled with the sharp increase in sea freight in September, the landed cost has increased, leading to a rebound in iron ore prices. With the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on launching the staggered production of the steel industry in the heating season of 2021-2022 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, later steel smelting is subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase. From the price point of view, the upper and lower space of iron ore is relatively limited, and the overall market price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of the iron ore 01-05 contract. Regardless of whether the iron ore 05 contract is facing multiple pressures from the decline in sea freight, the intensification of future supply and demand contradiction, and the change of exchange delivery rules, or the current spread of 1-5 close to about 20 yuan, it is worthy of attention.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Port inventory is low, and there is support below the rubber price.

The price of rubber futures fluctuated sharply last week, mainly related to the surrounding market sentiment. The fundamentals of rubber itself have not improved significantly, but due to the rebound in downstream demand, port inventory continues to be destocked. Driven by funds, prices rose sharply in the first half of the week. In the second half of the week, driven by the decline in ferrous commodity prices, the overall commodity ushered in a correction, and rubber prices were under pressure.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of October 22 was 269,395 tons (+18701), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 211,960 tons (+2510). The domestic peak season caused production to continue to rebound. As the market's delivery profit rebounded, warehouse receipts increased significantly last week. As of October 17, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, mainly due to a rebound in downstream procurement. With the improvement of arrivals, it is expected that November will usher in the inflection point of the inventory accumulation.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of October 21, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 60.49% (+1.96%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 56.26% (+1.74%). With the easing of domestic power curtailment, the operating rate of downstream tire plants continues to rise. However, because the domestic economy is in a downward cycle, it is expected that there is limited room for continued recovery.

Opinion: Due to the recent rebound in tire factory procurement and the continued delay in arrival schedules, domestic port inventories continue to decline, which still supports rubber prices. In the later stage, due to the small peak of domestic terminal consumption at the end of the year, and tire exports may still have strong resilience, domestic tire demand is expected to improve. However, due to the severe economic situation at home and abroad, the improvement is expected to be limited. Therefore, domestic price conflicts are more on the supply side. As long as the rebound of raw materials in overseas peak seasons can be gradually transferred to China in the future, domestic supply pressure will be ushered in. In the short-term, domestic prices may have a strong performance under the support of low inventories. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate mainly next week.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: Domestic supply may increase substantially; The impact of the epidemic may cause demand to continue to weaken; Funds may be tight.

Crude oil: Cushing's inventory is low, and the price gap between the two oils continues to narrow.

The trend of U.S. oil has been significantly stronger since last week, and this structural strength can be seen from both the WTI's own monthly spread and the WTI-Brent spread. The main reason for this was the sharp drop in EIA inventory last week, and the absolute level has dropped to 31 million barrels, which is already at the lowest level over the same period in 5 years. Judging from the reasons for the recent decline in Cushing's inventory, the main reason is that the Midwest refinery's fall inspection and repair efforts this year are far lower than the same period in history. On the one hand, U.S. refineries have generally better profits this year. On the other hand, before Hurricane Ida caused the US Bay refinery to stop production, the Midwest refinery was needed to fill the market gap, and the crude oil processing volume of the Midwest refinery in the third quarter of this year was significantly higher than the same period in history. From a supply point of view, Hurricane Ida has also caused the interruption of offshore oil production in the US Gulf region and the suspension of production for a long time. However, the operating rate of the refinery was earlier than the recovery of supply, which also caused the US Gulf Refinery to increase the amount of crude oil extracted from Cushing. Under the dual role of supply and demand, Cushing has become the most tense area of fundamentals in the United States. We believe that Cushing’s inventory may continue to fall to 25-30 million barrels in the future, mainly because the Midwest Refinery and the Meiwan Refinery will gradually resume production from maintenance and demand will gradually increase month-on-month. In addition, the Capline pipeline will be reversed early next year, which will significantly change the direction of crude oil trade in the Chicago area. The logistics direction from the United States Bay to the refineries around the Great Lakes has changed from south to north (although the initial flow is not large, it has a greater marginal impact on the logistics balance in the Midwest). This means that the Midwest refinery is more dependent on Cushing's supply, and Cushing's inventory is more easily extracted by the Midwest refinery. Capline also needs a part of the crude oil to fill the pipeline in the initial stage of production. Therefore, we have observed that Cushing’s discount to other oil types in the United States has also strengthened significantly recently.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads (Gasoil-Brent)

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: The long and short factors are gradually fermenting, and the fluctuation of copper prices has intensified.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of October 22 was at RMB 73,085/ton and RMB 75,955/ton. After rising on Monday, it dropped sharply in the middle of the week. The average premium and discount quotation of Pingshui Copper runs from RMB 260/ton to RMB 440/ton. Last week, copper prices fell sharply. The Shanghai Copper 11 contract dropped from a maximum of 76,700 yuan/ton to a minimum of 71,000 yuan/ton. It closed at 71,480 yuan/ton on Friday night, a weekly drop of 4,590 yuan/ton.

View:

On the macro front, the recent energy crisis that has attracted much attention seems to have turned around. Earlier, Russian President Putin put forward the prerequisites for increasing the supply of natural gas, saying that if the European Union approves the Beixi 2 pipeline, Russia's natural gas supply to Europe may increase by 10%. Putin spoke again the day before, saying that Russia may increase its supply of natural gas to Europe. From the perspective of natural gas prices, this week's prices have fallen from last week's highs. On the other hand, EU leaders discussed the recent surge in electricity and natural gas prices at the Brussels summit this Thursday. Some countries hope to have new measures in terms of emissions, electricity and natural gas, and even reduce the scale of their climate change plans. At the same time, on the eve of the G20 summit and the World Climate Summit, market news on Thursday revealed that countries are divergent on the issue of phasing out coal and controlling global warming. Bloomberg also reported that G20 diplomats have almost abandoned the goal of eliminating coal. The news has an impact on the market, as the reduction of carbon emission standards will have an impact on the logic of the energy crisis. That night, Li Junfeng, the first director of the National Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation Center, interpreted this and believed that the media reports were incorrect. However, judging from the trend of Shanghai Aluminum, as a "carbon neutral" star product, it once fell to the limit on Friday afternoon. On Friday night, Fed Chairman Powell made it clear that “now is the time to reduce debt purchases, but not the time to raise interest rates”. The Fed is now on the track to begin taper gradually, and is expected to complete this process by mid-2022. This speech strengthened the November FOMC's official announcement of Taper expectations, and at the same time greatly increased the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates next year. Since last week, in the context of energy crisis, inflation, and supply chain crisis, global copper prices have risen sharply. Coupled with the sudden drop in inventories, LME copper spot premiums and discounts climbed to a historic high of US$1103/ton this Monday. In response to this, the LME spoke twice, investigated the copper transaction, and said it would revise the copper loan rules. The LME imposes restrictions on the spot premium of the contracts of tomorrow and the next day, and introduces a delayed delivery mechanism for certain contracts. The market believes that Trafigura Group accounts for a large part of the large number of copper orders withdrawn from LME warehouses.

Domestic economic data was announced this week. In September, a number of macro-indicators fell, and the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size dropped by 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment from January to September dropped 1.6 percentage points from January to August. From the data point of view, it will take time for the special debt to drive the development of infrastructure. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a document overnight to intervene in the control of coal-related prices, and at the same time once again advocated to ensure the supply of bulk commodities and stabilize prices. Affected by this, thermal coal fell to the limit for 3 consecutive days, and at the same time sentiment was fermented to the overall commodity, which had a certain impact on the overall price. In addition, according to the Xinhua News Agency on October 23, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress authorized the State Council to carry out a decision to pilot real estate tax reform in some areas. The real estate sector, as a midstream terminal industry for most non-ferrous products, may also have a certain impact on the overall operation of the non-ferrous sector, and the market outlook requires continued attention.

On the supply side, the Peruvian community said during the week that it had failed to reach an agreement with the government and would block the Minmetals Las Bambas mining road indefinitely and affect all vehicles passing through the road. At the same time, domestic land transportation, especially the important ports of the three continents in the northwestern region, have been disrupted by the epidemic to varying degrees, causing some copper concentrates to accumulate at the ports, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term. This puts a certain pressure on the supply of raw materials for smelters in northwestern China. The power curtailment policy continues to affect, the Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued an emergency notice, including the province's 315 kVA and above high-energy-consuming enterprises such as steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and chemical industries into the rotation plan. At present, the total production capacity of copper smelting in Jiangxi is 1.26 million tons per year, ranking second in the country, accounting for 10.3% of the country's total production capacity. The Statistics Bureau announced the September electrolytic copper import data, which has increased compared with the previous month, but the cumulative growth rate has declined, and the overall import situation is not optimistic.

On the whole, the macro-level energy crisis seems to have turned for the better, which will be reflected in the market in the short term, but whether the current situation can be improved requires continuous attention. Following the speech by Fed Chairman Powell on Friday, the FOMC announced in November that Taper may become a foregone conclusion, and the macroeconomic aspect of copper prices began to turn bearish. Due to limited power factors, both ends of supply and demand are affected to varying degrees. However, under the current global low inventory level, the weekly inventory data is still in a state of destocking, and there is no turning point yet. Before the macro factors have landed, the neutral view is temporarily maintained.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The operating rate rebounded sharply, and the PX processing fee was still compressed on the left.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the PTA full overhaul, the balance sheet in October showed a slight accumulation of inventory. Under the background of low load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the Asian PX balance sheet was tightened to balance or even slightly destocked from October to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: The high PTA processing fee is expected to shrink. PX processing fee is lower on the left side and rebound is expected. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude towards the absolute price of PTA.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：钢材消费不及预期 铁矿期现易跌难涨

上周，国家政策对碳元素的深度扰动，极差的房地产数据，叠加钢联公布的五大材的产销存数据，大幅低于市场普遍预期，在多重利空因素的背景下，黑色商品集体迎来跌停潮。铁矿期、现货也是弱势震荡。至上周五收盘，铁矿01合约收于651点，较上一交易日下跌85点。现货方面，日青京曹四港最低价PB粉819元/吨，周度环比跌52元/吨，超特粉484元/吨，跌61元/吨。基差方面，期现齐跌，基差没有明显的大幅变化，至上周五收盘，PB粉对应01合约基差262点，周度环比走扩29点，超特粉对应01合约基差39点，周度环比走扩19点。普式62%美金指数118美金，周度环比跌8美金。

供应方面，Mysteel新口径全球发运总量3060万吨，周度环比增加57万吨，其中澳洲发运1766万吨，周度环比增加62万吨。巴西发运588万吨，周度环比减少121万吨。非主流发运706万吨，周度环比增加116万吨。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率76.55%，环比上周下降1.52%，同比去年下降11.73%；高炉炼铁产能利用率80.05%，环比下降0.61%，同比下降12.29%；钢厂盈利率88.74%，环比持平，同比下降1.30%；日均铁水产量214.58万吨，环比下降1.64万吨，同比下降31.21万吨。163家钢厂高炉开工率53.18%，环比下降0.83%，产能利用率62.16%，环比下降2.26%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为67.67%，较去年同期下降16.86%，钢厂盈利率77.30%，环比持平。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为14045.48，环比增147.29；日均疏港量276.33增8.91。分量方面，澳矿6799.20增87.9，巴西矿4649.80增20.8，贸易矿8291.00增102.1，球团373.40降18.19，精粉1023.37增1.63，块矿2289.62增59.94，粗粉10359.09增103.91；在港船舶数202条降6条。

整体来看，铁矿价格经过大幅有效的下跌，基本实现了对边际供给的抑制，叠加9月份海运费大幅上涨，增加了到岸成本，铁矿价格有所反弹，随着工信部发布关于开展京津冀及周边地区2021-2022年采暖季钢铁行业错峰生产的通知，后期钢铁冶炼受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。从价格来看，铁矿上下空间均较为有限，整体呈现易跌难涨格局，建议单边观望为主。另外，推荐关注铁矿01-05合约正套机会，无论从铁矿05合约面临海运费回落、未来供需矛盾加剧及交易所交割规则改变的多重压力，还是当前1-5接近20元左右的价差来看都值得关注。

策略：

单边：中性

套利：01-05正套

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：港口库存低位，胶价下方有支撑

上周橡胶期价大幅波动，主要跟周边市场氛围有关。橡胶自身基本面改善不明显，但因下游需求环比回升，港口库存延续去化，在资金推动下，上半周价格大幅上扬，而下半周在黑色价格下行带动下，总体商品迎来回调，胶价有所承压。

国内交易所总库存截止10月22为269395吨（+18701），期货仓单量211960吨（+2510），国内旺季导致产量继续回升，随着盘面交割利润回升，上周仓单明显增加。截至10月17日，青岛保税区库存延续下降，主要因下游拿货有所回升，随着到港改善，预计11月将迎来累库拐点。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止10月21日，全钢胎企业开工率60.49%（+1.96%），半钢胎企业开工率56.26%（+1.74%）。随着国内限电的缓解，下游轮胎厂开工率继续回升，但因国内经济处于下行周期，预计继续回升空间有限。

观点：因近期轮胎厂采购的环比回升以及到港船期继续推迟，带来国内港口库存延续下降，这使得胶价下方仍有支撑。后期来看，因国内终端消费年底迎来小高峰，而轮胎出口或仍有较强韧性，预计国内轮胎需求将有所改善，但因国内外经济形势严峻，预计改善幅度有限。因此，国内价格矛盾更多在供应端，只要后期海外旺季原料回升可以逐步转移到国内，则国内将迎来供应压力。短期国内价格或在低库存支撑下，表现偏强，预计下周胶价震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：库欣库存低位，两油价差持续收窄

上周以来美油走势显著较强，不论是从WTI自身月差还是WTI-Brent价差都可以看出这种结构性强势，这其中最为主要的原因是上周EIA库存大幅下降，目前绝对水平降至3100万桶，已经处于5年同期最低水平，从历史来看，库欣在3000万桶附近非常容易引发挤仓，这也是当前月差走强最为直接的原因，从库欣库存近期下降的原因来看，主要是中西部炼厂今年秋检检修力度远低于历史同期，一方面是今年美国炼厂利润普遍较好，另一方面，此前飓风艾达导致美湾炼厂停产，需要中西部炼厂来补充市场缺口，今年中西部炼厂三季度的原油加工量显著高于历史同期，而从供给的角度来看，此前飓风艾达也导致美湾地区海上石油生产中断且停产规模较长，但炼厂开工率早于供应恢复，这也使得美湾炼厂增加从库欣原油的提取量，在供需的双重作用之下，库欣成为全美基本面最为紧张的地区，我们认为未来库欣库存可能还会继续下降至2500至3000万桶，主要是中西部炼厂和美湾炼厂逐步将从检修中复产，需求环比将逐步增加，此外Capline管道将在明年年初逆转，将显著改变芝加哥地区的原油贸易流向，美湾到五大湖周边炼厂的物流走向从南向改为北向（虽然初期流量不大，但边际上对中西部的物流平衡影响较大）。意味着中西部炼厂更加依赖库欣供应，库欣库存更加容易被中西部炼厂抽取，Capline投产初期也需要一部分原油填充管道。因此，我们观察到近期库欣对美国其他地区油种的贴水也显著走强，我们认为在库欣库存继续下降的情况下，WTI12月合约未来挤仓的担忧将会有增无减，这也对当前的原油价格形成较强支撑。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：多空因素逐渐发酵，铜价走势震荡加剧

现货情况：

据SMM讯，10月22当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于73,085元/吨75,955元/吨，在周一冲高后，周中大幅回落。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于升水260元/吨至升水440元/吨，周中呈先扬后抑。上周铜价跌幅较多，沪铜11合约由最高76,700元吨降至最低71,000元/吨，周五夜盘收71,480元/吨，周度跌4,590元/吨。

观点：

宏观方面，近期备受关注的能源危机看似有所转机，此前俄罗斯总统普京提出增加天然气供应的先决条件，称若欧盟批准北溪2号管线，俄方对欧洲的天然气供应可能增加10%。前日普京再次发言称俄罗斯有可能增加对欧洲的天然气供应。从天然气价格来看，本周价格较上周高位回落。另一方面，欧盟领导人在本周四布鲁塞尔峰会就近期电力和天然气价格暴涨展开讨论，一些国家希望在排放、电力和天然气方面有新措施，甚至是缩减应对气候变化计划的规模。同时，在G20峰会和世界气候峰会即将召开前夕，周四市场消息透露各国在逐步淘汰煤炭和控制全球变暖的问题存在分歧，彭博也报道G20外交官几乎放弃了淘汰煤炭目标。消息对市场产生冲击，因减少碳排放标准将对能源危机逻辑产生冲击。当晚国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心首任主任李俊峰对此进行解读，认为媒体报道有误。但从沪铝走势来看，作为“碳中和”明星产品，周五下午一度跌停。周五晚，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，“现在是缩减购债的时候，但不是加息的时候”，美联储正步入很快开始逐步taper的轨道，预计2022年年中完成这一过程。此次发言加强了11月FOMC正式宣布Taper预期，同时大幅增加美联储明年加息可能性。自上周开始，在能源危机、通货膨胀、供应链危机的背景下，全球铜价大涨，加上库存的骤降，伦铜现货升贴水本周一度攀升至1103美元/吨的历史高位。对此LME两度发话，并对铜交易进行调查，并表示将修改铜贷款规则，对明日次日合约的现货溢价设置限制，对某些合约引入延迟交付机制。市场认为在从LME仓库撤出铜的大量订单中，托克集团占了很大一部分。

国内方面本周经济数据公布，9月份多项宏观指标出现回落，规模以上工业增速较上月回落2.2个百分点；1月至9月固定资产投资同比增速较1月至8月回落1.6个百分点。从数据上看，专项债带动基建发力落地仍需时间。发改委连夜连续发文干预控制煤相关价格，同时再次喊话做好大宗商品保供稳价工作。受此影响，动力煤连续3日跌停，同时情绪发酵至整体大宗商品，对整体价格产生一定冲击。此外，据新华社10月23日讯，全国人大常务委员会授权国务院在部分地区开展房地产税改革试点的决定，而房地产板块作为多数有色产品中游的终端行业，也或许将会对有色板块整体运行情况产生一定影响，后市需持续关注。

供应方面来看，周内秘鲁社区表示未能和政府达成协议，将要无限期封锁五矿Las Bambas采矿道路，并影响所有通过道路的车辆。与此同时，国内陆运特别是西北地区三大陆运重要口岸均不同程度受到疫情干扰，导致部分铜精矿在口岸堆积，短期内难有缓解的趋势，对国内西北地区冶炼厂原料供应带来一定压力，海矿现货市场趁火打劫，TC小幅回落。限电政策持续影响，江西省发改委发布紧急通知，将全省315千伏安及以上的钢铁、建材、有色、化工等高耗能企业全部列入轮停方案。目前江西地区铜冶炼总产能126万吨/年，位居全国第二，占全国总产能10.3%。统计局公布9月电解铜进口数据，环比较上月有所上升，但累计增速下行，进口情况整体不乐观。

整体来看，宏观方面能源危机看似有所转机，短期在行情有所体现，但当前局面能否改善需持续关注。伴随周五美联储主席鲍威尔发言，11月FOMC宣布Taper可能成为定局，宏观方面对铜价开始转为利空。受限电因素，供需两端均受不同程度的影响。但目前全球低库存水平下，周度库存数据目前仍处去库状态，尚未出现拐点。在宏观因素尚未落地前，目前暂时维持偏中性观点。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险

PTA：开工率大幅回升，PX加工费仍左侧压缩

平衡表展望：PTA全检修兑现背景下，10月平衡表微幅累库；浙石化负荷偏低背景下，亚洲PX平衡表10-12月收紧为平衡甚至小幅去库。

策略建议：（1）单边：PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧偏低有反弹预期，PTA绝对价格观望。（2）做缩PTA-PX价差。（3）跨期：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间