Iron Ore: The market held a wait-and-see attitude, and the iron ore continued to fluctuate within the range.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore market showed a fluctuating trend as a whole. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 688.5, up 11.5 from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the spot price of imported iron ore at ports fluctuated in the afternoon, with a cumulative increase of 0-10 throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 840-845, SSF 500-505.

On the whole, the price of iron ore has fallen substantially and effectively, and the marginal supply has basically been suppressed. Coupled with the sharp increase in sea freight in September, the landed cost has increased, leading to a rebound in iron ore prices. With the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on launching the staggered production of the steel industry in the heating season of 2021-2022 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, later steel smelting is subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase. From the price point of view, the upper and lower space of iron ore is relatively limited, and the overall market price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of the iron ore 01-05 contract. Regardless of whether the iron ore 05 contract is facing multiple pressures from the decline in sea freight, the intensification of future supply and demand contradiction, and the change of exchange delivery rules, or the current spread of 1-5 close to about 20 yuan, it is worthy of attention.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutral

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Raw material prices fell, and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range.

On October 25, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,605 (-145) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,650 (-50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -805 yuan/ton (-205); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 78,904 (-5,331) lots, the short position was 113,864 (-5,822) lots, and the net short position was 34,960 (+491) lots.

On October 25, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,600 (+20) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,790 (-5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,775 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,740 (-10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -477 (-103) yuan/ton.

As of October 22: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 269,395 (+18,701) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 211,960 (+2,510) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.6 (-0.47), cup lump 47.5 (-1.8), latex 53.5 (-0.5), RSS3 55.95 (-0.24).

As of October 21, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.49% (+1.96%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.26% (+1.74%).

Opinion: The price of rubber futures fluctuated within a narrow range yesterday. Driven by the fall in futures prices last week, the prices of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas have fallen. According to the weather forecast, there is still continuous rain in Thailand's main producing areas this week, which is expected to have an impact on rubber delivery, and raw material prices may easily rise and hardly fall. At present, the volume of arrivals at ports is not large due to delays in logistics. At the same time, due to the rebound in downstream demand for goods, the outbound continued to rise, resulting in a continuous decline in domestic port inventory. Under the background of continuous domestic destocking, it is expected that there will be strong support below the reuuber price. If the logistics can continue to improve in the future, it is expected that the inflection point of domestic inventory accumulation will occur when overseas production rebounds in November. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being in the short term and pay attention to the recent arrivals at ports.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Zhejiang Petrochemical's quota exceeded expectations, and the operating rate of domestic refineries may be revised upwards.

Rongsheng said yesterday that the 12 million tons of crude oil quota issued by the Ministry of Commerce has been issued, which is larger than the 10 million barrels previously rumored in the market. Since the beginning of this year, Zhejiang Petrochemical's second phase of equipment has restricted its operating rate due to the tight quotas, and it has not obtained quotas in the previous fourth round of import quotas. After the issuance of this round of quotas, the problem of shortage of quotas will be completely alleviated. We expect the operating rate of the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical to increase. Last week, the National Development and Reform Commission called Central Petroleum, Sinopec and CNOOC to meet to discuss issues related to petroleum. The topic of the meeting mentioned the recent strength of domestic diesel and the recovery of ESPO premium. We believe that in order to prevent an oil shortage in the near future, PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC may increase the operating rate of their installations and reduce the export of refined oil, and China's crude oil buying interest may bottom out.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads (Gasoil-Brent)

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: LME continues to destock, and copper prices continue to fluctuate.

Spot: According to SMM, the premiums and discounts in the spot market has stabilized, but buyers and sellers in the market still maintain a stalemate. Even if the market price stabilizes at around 72,000 yuan/ton, it is still difficult to see significant buying interest. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 370-380 yuan/ton to test the market, but market inquiries were few. In order to facilitate the transaction, the holders voluntarily adjusted the price to a premium of 350-360 yuan/ton, and the buyer can keep the price down at about a premium of 340 yuan/ton. However, the transaction was still insipid, and the downstream fear of high prices was still obvious. The supply of High-Grade Copper was still scarce, resulting in the overall price was still relatively high, but there was little buying in the market. Some holders adjusted their prices slightly from a premium of 600 yuan/ton to a premium of 550 yuan/ton, which led to a small number of transactions in the market. For Hydro-Copper, under the guidance of the quotations of brands such as BMK and Norlisk, the premium had dropped from around 280 yuan/ton to around 250 yuan/ton. Buyers and sellers were also more cautious, and it was difficult to see active transactions in the market.

On the macro side, WTI crude oil futures rose to $85/barrel yesterday, continuing to hit a new high since October 2014. Brent crude oil once exceeded $86/barrel. WTI crude oil has risen for nine consecutive weeks, and Brent crude oil has risen for seven consecutive weeks. Since the beginning of September, the two benchmark prices have both increased by about 20%. At the same time, US natural gas futures stood at 6.0 US dollars per million British heat, the increase expanded to 13.5%, the highest since October 16. According to the US weather forecast for the next two weeks, the expectation of cold weather has once again raised concerns about tight supply in the market. In terms of ocean freight, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell to its lowest level in more than a month on Monday. The drop in sea freight has eased concerns about the current high cost of commodity freight.

On the whole, energy prices have returned to an upward trend, LME continues to destock, and copper prices continue to fluctuate.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: PTA: Zhejiang Petrochemical obtained crude oil import quota.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical obtained crude oil import quota

(1) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. The PX processing fee has fallen on the left side in the early period, which fully reflects this expectation.

2. PTA operating rate is at a high stage

(1) The PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages, and the current PTA processing fee is 760 yuan/ton on the high side.

3. Filament production and sales remain low

(1) The production and sales of filament yarns are maintained at 25%. The operating rate of terminal weaving this week was 65, and the operating rate of the terminal remained at a low level with no significant increase.

PTA supply has rebounded sharply, and terminal weaving and polyester operating rates are also expected to rebound. In November, it is expected that under the background of the two expansions of supply and demand, PTA will gradually enter the re-stocking cycle.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side; Regarding the absolute price of PTA, it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：市场观望情绪较浓，铁矿延续区间震荡

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿盘面整体呈震荡走势。至收盘，铁矿01合约收于688.5，较上一交易日涨11.5。现货方面， 进口铁矿港口现货午后价格震荡运行，全天累计上涨0-10。现青岛港PB粉840-845，超特粉500-505。

整体来看，铁矿价格经过大幅有效的下跌，基本实现了对边际供给的抑制，叠加9月份海运费大幅上涨，增加了到岸成本，铁矿价格有所反弹，随着工信部发布关于开展京津冀及周边地区2021-2022年采暖季钢铁行业错峰生产的通知，后期钢铁冶炼受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。从价格来看，铁矿上下空间均较为有限，整体呈现易跌难涨格局，建议单边观望为主。另外，推荐关注铁矿01-05合约正套机会，无论从铁矿05合约面临海运费回落、未来供需矛盾加剧及交易所交割规则改变的多重压力，还是当前1-5接近20元左右的价差来看都值得关注。

策略：

单边：中性

套利：01-05正套

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：原料价格回落，期价窄幅波动

25号，RU主力收盘14605（-145）元/吨，混合胶报价12650元/吨（-50），主力合约基差-805元/吨（-205）；前二十主力多头持仓78904（-5331），空头持仓113864（-5822），净空持仓34960（+491）。

25号，NR主力收盘价11600（+20）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1790（-5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1775美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1740（-10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-477（-103）元/吨。

截至10月22日：交易所总库存269395（+18701），交易所仓单211960（+2510）。

原料：生胶片52.6（-0.47），杯胶47.5（-1.8），胶水53.5（-0.5），烟片55.95（-0.24）。

截止10月21日，国内全钢胎开工率为60.49%（+1.96%），国内半钢胎开工率为56.26%(+1.74%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价窄幅波动，受上周期价回落带动，泰国主产区原料价格有所下跌，据天气预报，本周泰国主产区仍有持续降雨，预计对割胶有所影响，原料价格或易涨难跌。国内目前因物流推迟导致到港量不大，同时因下游拿货需求回升，出库继续回升，导致港口库存持续下滑，在国内持续去库背景下，预计胶价下方有较强支撑。如果后期物流可以继续改善，预期国内累库拐点将出现在11月份海外产量回升之际。短期建议暂时观望，关注近期到港情况。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：浙石化配额超预期，国内炼厂开工率或将上修

昨日荣盛称商务部下发的1200万吨的原油配额已经下发，这相比此前市场传闻的1000万桶，数量要更大，而今年以来，浙石化二期由于配额紧张制约了其装置开工率，且在此前的第四轮进口配额中没有获得配额，而此轮配额下发之后，配额紧缺的问题将得到彻底缓解，我们预计浙石化二期装置开工率将会提升，而上周发改委召集三桶油开会，讨论了石油的相关问题，会议议题中提到了近期国内柴油的强势以及ESPO溢价的回升，我们认为近期为了防止出现油荒，三桶油或将在近期提升装置开工率并削减成品油出口，中国原油买兴或将触底回升。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：LME持续去库，铜价延续震荡

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场升贴水走势企稳，但市场买卖双方依旧维持僵持态势，即使盘面企稳于72000元/吨附近，依旧难见显著买兴。早市平水铜始报于升水370-380元/吨试探市场，但市场询价者寥寥，为促成交持货商主动调价至升水350-360元/吨后有所企稳，买方可压价于升水340元/吨左右，成交依旧显僵持，下游畏高情绪依旧明显。好铜依然货源稀少，物以稀为贵，整体报价依旧较高，但无奈市场买盘寥寥，部分持货商从升水600元/吨小幅调价至升水550元/吨少量成交。湿法铜则在BMK，Norlisk等品牌报价指引下自升水280元/吨左右降至升水250元/吨附近，买卖双方也较为谨慎，市场难见活跃成交。

观点：昨日日盘铜价震荡，12合约表现空头增仓入场。夜盘铜价延续震荡格局，12合约表现空头增仓入场。

宏观方面，昨日WTI原油期货一度站上85美元/桶，续刷2014年10月以来新高；布伦特原油一度突破86美元/桶。WTI原油已连续九周上涨，布伦特原油已连续七周上涨，自9月初以来，这两个基准价格均累计上涨了约20%。同时，美国天然气期货站上6.0美元/百万英热，涨幅扩大至13.5%，为10月16日来新高。根据美国对于未来两周天气预测，对寒冷天气的预期再次引发对市场对于供应紧张的担忧。海运运费方面，波罗的海干散货运价指数周一跌至逾一个月最低水平。海运费的下降，对于目前商品运费成本过高的担忧有所缓解。

整体看来，能源价格重回涨势，LME持续去库，铜价延续震荡。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：浙石化原油进口配额下放

一、浙石化原油进口配额下放

（1）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨，后续PX有提负预期。PX加工费前期已左侧下跌，充分反映此预期。

二、PTA开工率阶段性高位

（1）PTA开工率阶段性高位，目前PTA加工费760元/吨偏高。

三、长丝产销仍维持低位

（1）长丝产销维持25%。本周终端织造开工65，终端开工维持低位，未见明显抬升。

PTA供应大幅回升，终端织造加弹及聚酯开工率亦有回升预期，11月预期在供需两扩的背景下，PTA仍逐步进入重新累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：暂观望， PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧偏低估，PTA绝对价格观望。（2）跨期套利：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间