Iron Ore: The iron ore fluctuated higher, continuing the pattern of wide fluctuations.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore market showed a volatile upward trend. To the close, the iron ore 01 contract closed at 714.5, up 21 from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Qingdao Port rose 7-21 throughout the day. Market sentiment was relatively active, and transactions performed well. The PB fines reported 859 rose by 19, the PB block 988 rose by 7, and SSF 517 rose by 21.

On the whole, the price of iron ore has fallen substantially and effectively, and the marginal supply has basically been suppressed. Coupled with the sharp increase in sea freight in September, the landed cost has increased, leading to a rebound in iron ore prices. With the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on launching the staggered production of the steel industry in the heating season of 2021-2022 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, later steel smelting is subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase. From the price point of view, the upper and lower space of iron ore is relatively limited, and the overall market price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of the iron ore 01-05 contract. Regardless of whether the iron ore 05 contract is facing multiple pressures from the decline in sea freight, the intensification of future supply and demand contradiction, and the change of exchange delivery rules, or the current spread of 1-5 close to about 20 yuan, it is worthy of attention.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutral

Arbitrage: 01-05 Forward Arbitrage

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The number of arrivals at the port is small, and the port inventory continues to decline.

On October 26, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,605 (-145) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,825 (+175) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -855 yuan/ton (+95); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 80,008 (+1,104) lots, the short position was 115,385 (+1,521) lots, and the net short position was 35,377 (+417) lots.

On October 26, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,780 (+180) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,805 (+15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,777.5 (+2.5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,740 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -663 (+169) yuan/ton.

As of October 22: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 269,395 (+18,701) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 211,960 (+2,510) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.75 (+0.15), cup lump 47.3 (-0.2), latex 53.5 (0), RSS3 56.65 (+0.7).

As of October 21, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.49% (+1.96%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.26% (+1.74%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the rubber futures price fluctuated strongly, and the price of raw materials in the mainstream market in Thailand went up and down. According to the recent weather forecast, southern Thailand will also usher in rain, so we need to pay attention to the impact on rubber delivery. It is expected that the price of raw materials is likely to rise this week but maybe difficult to fall, and the support for rubber prices is still strong. As of last week, the domestic port inventory continued to decline, mainly due to the low arrivals. It is understood that at the time of the sharp drop in prices last weekend, the port outbound rate has improved, which may indicate that the downstream willingness to purchase goods has rebounded. If the logistics can continue to improve in the future, it is expected that the inflection point of domestic inventory accumulation will occur when overseas production rebounds in November.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API crude oil inventories increased, and global travel restrictions were relaxed.

In order to cope with the upcoming Christmas holidays, the United States, Singapore and other places gradually loosened the restrictions on cross-border travel, and the global travel window was opened. The relaxation of travel restrictions will significantly boost the number of international flights, which will benefit jet fuel consumption before the end of the year. At present, middle distillate products are still the most powerful variety in refined oil products. In addition to improving demand, high natural gas prices have led to the high cost of hydrogen production in refineries, and the profitability of refinery hydrocracking units is not good. Therefore, this limits the ability of the refinery to adjust the diesel yield through the secondary device. Refineries in Europe and the Asia-Pacific are turning to lower-sulfur crude oil to reduce desulfurization costs. This makes the recent strength of diesel gradually transmitted to light and sweet crude oil, and Brent's spread to Dubai has reached a new high.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads (Gasoil-Brent)

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: The National Development and Reform Commission continues to introduce regulatory policies for coal prices, and the sharp drop in night coal prices drags down copper prices.

Spot: According to SMM, the spread between the current-month contract and the next-month contract in the spot market yesterday stabilized at around 30-40 yuan/ton, and the market maintained firm quotations for the current-month contract. However, the overall trading activity of the market declined slightly, and in addition to the continued inflow of imported copper, premiums and discounts fell slightly. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper reported a premium of 330-340 yuan/ton for the next month's contract, but there were few inquirers in the market. It was not until some holders quickly adjusted the price to a premium of 320 yuan/ton that the transaction improved slightly. Before the second trading session, although there were goods flowing out of the market at a premium of 300-310 yuan/ton, the transaction did not improve, and the downstream fear of high prices was serious. After the second period of trading, a small amount of goods quoting at a premium of 280 yuan/ton were immediately bought out when they entered the market. It was not until the quotation returned to a premium of 290 yuan/ton that the market transaction returned to insipid. As Guixi-Copper flowed into the market to suppress the price of High-Grade Copper, the price of High-Grade Copper fell rapidly, gradually reducing its price from a premium of 500 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton. In late trading, it was even heard that a small amount of goods were traded at a premium of 440 yuan/ton, which significantly narrowed the spread between High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper. Hydro-Copper was still quoted at a premium of about 200-230 yuan/ton under the guidance of individual brands such as NORLISK. However, the downstream was more cautious near the price of 72,000 yuan/ton, and it was difficult to see active trading in the market.

On the macro level, the current energy crisis and inflation continue to be the focus of market attention. According to the Peruvian Ombudsman’s Office, different transportation unions will go on strike across the country this week over fuel increases and fee increases. Last night, the 5-year break-even inflation rate in the United States hit a new high since January 2004. With regard to the current situation of high inflation, the market urgently needs to introduce effective policies. On the 27th and 28th, Canada, Japan and the European Central Bank will respectively announce interest rate resolutions, while the United States will announce September inflation data on the 29th. Yesterday, the U.S. index rose at a low level, which also reflected the market's expectations for future tightening. In terms of data, the United States saw the largest increase in new home sales in the past six months in September, indicating that the demand for home purchases is steady. However, the current supply chain and labor shortages continue to put pressure on the US housing market.

Domestically, the State Council has issued a carbon peaking action plan by 2030, proposing to accelerate the construction of a new power system. By 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30 million kilowatts. Vigorously promote new energy vehicles, and gradually reduce the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles in the production and sales of new vehicles and vehicle ownership. By 2030, the proportion of new energy and clean energy-powered vehicles will reach about 40% that year. The introduction of the plan will benefit the non-ferrous sector, especially copper and aluminum, on the consumer side. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission has continued to take action on coal, studying the establishment of a long-term coal market price mechanism of "base price + fluctuating up and down", and deploying the clean-up work of coal storage sites in coal production areas. Thermal coal fell sharply in late trading at night, driving the downward trend of the overall commodity sector.

On the whole, the energy crisis and inflation continue. This week, the three central bank interest rate decisions and US inflation data have become the focus of market attention. The National Development and Reform Commission continued to introduce regulatory policies for the coal market, and the sharp drop in night coal prices dragged down copper prices. For the time being, the judgment on the relative neutrality of copper prices is maintained.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The production and sales of filaments are still weak.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical obtained crude oil import quota

(1) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. The PX processing fee has fallen on the left side in the early period, which fully reflects this expectation.

2. PTA operating rate is at a high stage

(1) The PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages; The current price of PTA processing fee of 700 yuan/ton or more is still overestimated, which may partly include the room for the rebound of PX processing fee.

3. Filament production and sales remain low

(1) The production and sales of filaments are still below 30%. The performance of terminal orders was insipid.

PTA supply has rebounded sharply, and terminal weaving and polyester operating rates are also expected to rebound. In November, it is expected that under the background of the two expansions of supply and demand, PTA will gradually enter the re-stocking cycle.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side; Regarding the absolute price of PTA, it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：铁矿震荡走高，延续宽幅震荡格局

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿盘面呈震荡上升趋势，至收盘，铁矿01合约收于714.5，较上一交易日涨21。现货方面， 青岛港进口铁矿全天价格上涨7-21。市场交投情绪较为活跃，成交尚可。现PB粉859涨19，PB块988涨7，超特粉517涨21。

整体来看，铁矿价格经过大幅有效的下跌，基本实现了对边际供给的抑制，叠加9月份海运费大幅上涨，增加了到岸成本，铁矿价格有所反弹，随着工信部发布关于开展京津冀及周边地区2021-2022年采暖季钢铁行业错峰生产的通知，后期钢铁冶炼受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。从价格来看，铁矿上下空间均有限，整体呈现易跌难涨格局，建议单边观望为主。另外，推荐关注铁矿01-05合约正套机会，无论从铁矿05合约面临海运费回落、未来供需矛盾加剧及交易所交割规则改变的多重压力，还是当前1-5接近20元左右的价差来看都值得关注。

策略：

单边：中性

套利：01-05正套

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：到港量少，港口库存延续下行

26号，RU主力收盘14605（-145）元/吨，混合胶报价12825元/吨（+175），主力合约基差-855元/吨（+95）；前二十主力多头持仓80008（+1104），空头持仓115385（+1521），净空持仓35377（+417）。

26号，NR主力收盘价11780（+180）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1805（+15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1777.5美元/吨（+2.5），印尼标胶1740（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-663（+169）元/吨。

截至10月22日：交易所总库存269395（+18701），交易所仓单211960（+2510）。

原料：生胶片52.75（+0.15），杯胶47.3（-0.2），胶水53.5（0），烟片56.65（+0.7）。

截止10月21日，国内全钢胎开工率为60.49%（+1.96%），国内半钢胎开工率为56.26%(+1.74%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价偏强震荡，泰国主流市场原料价格涨跌互现，按照近期的天气预报，泰国南部也将迎来降雨，关注对割胶的影响，预计本周原料价格易涨难跌，对橡胶下方支撑仍较强。截至上周的国内港口库存延续下降，主要因到港量少。据了解，上周末在价格大幅回落之际，港口出库率有所改善，或说明下游拿货意愿回升。如果后期物流可以继续改善，预期国内的累库拐点将出现在11月份海外产量回升之际；叠加近期国内指标胶的进入，预计国内11月供应将改善。建议短线操作为主。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API原油库存增加，全球旅行限制放松

为了应对即将到来的圣诞假期，美国、新加坡等地逐步放松跨国旅行限制，全球旅行窗口开启，旅行限制的放松将会显著提振国际航班数量，从而利好年底前的航空煤油消费，目前中间馏分产品仍旧是成品油中最为强势的品种，除了需求向好之外，由于天然气价格高企导致炼厂制氢成本高昂，炼厂加氢裂化装置的收益不佳，因此这限制了炼厂通过二次装置调整柴油收率的能力，欧洲与亚太的炼厂更多通过转而加工更加低硫的原油来降低脱硫成本，这使得近期柴油的强势逐步传导至轻质低硫原油，布伦特对迪拜的价差也再创新高。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：发改委针对煤炭持续出手，夜盘煤价大跌拖累铜价

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场主流对下月票报价，当月票与下月票价差稳定在30-40元/吨左右，市场对当月票报价维持坚挺，但随着长单落下帷幕，市场整体交投活跃度小幅减少，外加进口铜持续流入的情况下，升贴水小幅回落。早市平水铜对下月票报价始于升水330-340元/吨后市场询价者寥寥，部分持货商迅速调价至升水320元/吨后才略显成交，第二时段前升水300-310元/吨货源流出市场成交也未见好转，下游畏高情绪严重，第二时段后少量升水280元/吨货源入市即秒，报价回到升水290元/吨后市场成交重回清淡。由于贵溪铜流入市场压价好铜，好铜价格迅速回落，从升水500元/吨逐渐调降至升水450元/吨，尾盘甚至听闻少量升水440元/吨成交，和平水铜价差明显收窄。湿法铜则依旧在NORLISK等个别品牌报价指引下，报至升水200-230元/吨左右，下游在72000元/吨附近较为谨慎，市场难见活跃交投。

宏观方面，目前能源危机及通胀持续为市场关注重点，据秘鲁监察员办公室消息，本周不同的交通运输工会将在全国各地就燃油上涨和收费增加举行罢工。昨日晚间，美国5年期损益平衡通胀率触及2004年1月以来新高。对于目前通胀高企的现状，市场亟待出台有效政策。27日及28日，加拿大、日本及欧洲央行将分别公布利率决议，同时29日美国将公布9月通胀数据，昨日美指低位拉升，也体现出市场对于未来收紧的预期。数据方面，美国9月新屋销售增幅创近六个月最大，表明购房需求面稳健。但目前供应链及劳动力短缺问题，对美国楼市持续施压。

国内方面，国务院印发2030年前碳达峰行动方案，提出加快建设新型电力系统。到2025年，新型储能装机容量达到3000万千瓦以上。大力推广新能源汽车，逐步降低传统燃油汽车在新车产销和汽车保有量中的占比。到2030年，当年新增新能源、清洁能源动力的交通工具比例达到40%左右。方案的出台对于有色板块，尤其是铜、铝在消费端有利好作用。同时，发改委针对煤炭持续出手，研究建立“基准价+上下浮动”的煤炭市场价格长效机制，部署煤炭产地存煤场所清顿整理工作。夜间动力煤尾盘大跌，带动整体商品板块的下行。

整体看来，能源危机及通胀持续，本周三大央行利率决议及美国通胀数据成为市场关注重点。发改委针对煤炭持续出手，夜盘煤价大跌拖累铜价，目前暂时维持对铜价相对中性的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：长丝产销仍偏弱

一、浙石化原油进口配额下放

（1）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨，后续PX有提负预期。PX加工费前期已左侧下跌，充分反映此预期。

二、PTA开工率阶段性高位

（1）PTA开工率阶段性高位，目前PTA加工费700元/吨以上仍属高估，或部分包含PX加工费反弹的空间。

三、长丝产销仍维持低位

（1）长丝产销仍在30%以下，终端订单表现一般。

总体来看，PX浙石化虽有后续提负预期，但PX加工费左侧已打至低位，充分反映。而PTA供应大幅回升，终端织造加弹及聚酯开工率亦有回升预期，11月预期在供需两扩的背景下，PTA仍逐步进入重新累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：暂观望， PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧偏低估，PTA绝对价格观望。（2）跨期套利：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间