Iron Ore: The black commodity fluctuated sharply in the intraday market, and the iron ore bottomed out and rebounded.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, iron ore was affected by the large fluctuations in black commodities and showed a trend of rebounding from the bottom throughout the day. The highest price was 699, the lowest price was 639, and the closing price was 683.5, which was 2.36% lower than the closing price of the previous trading day. Open interest 420,319 hands, -18555 hands. In terms of spot, the intraday price of imported iron ore at Qingdao Port fell broadly, with a cumulative drop of 30-40. PB fines reported 805-810, PB block 935-945, SSF 475-485.

From the perspective of transaction, the total transaction of iron ore in major ports across China was 880,000 tons, an increase of 17% from the previous month. Forward spot: The total number of forward spot transactions was 1.27 million tons, an increase of 74% from the previous month. On the downstream side, the total output of the five building materials commonly used in construction of the Steel Union increased by 430,300 tons this week, indicating that the short-term steel mill production has resumed, forming a certain degree of support for iron ore prices.

On the whole, shipments of overseas ores dropped slightly last week, and domestic ores are expected to recover slightly due to the relaxation of power restrictions, and the overall supply side fluctuates little. The demand side is slightly supported in the short-term due to the resumption of production by steel mills. Therefore, in the short term, iron ore supply and demand are relatively balanced. In the long run, affected by the carbon peak policy, the demonstration of non-blast furnace ironmaking technology will be vigorously promoted in the future. In addition, Botswana's first mining area in South Africa has begun to export iron ore products to China for the first time. In the long run, supply may increase, but demand will continue to decrease, and iron ore prices may be difficult to change, easy to fall, and difficult to rise. In the future, we will continue to focus on the delivery of foreign ores and the resumption of production by downstream steel mills.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutral

Arbitrage: 01-05 Forward Arbitrage

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The spread between futures and spot prices widened.

On October 28, the most-active RU contract closed at 15,170 (+305) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,950 (+125) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1295 yuan/ton (-355); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 81,884 (+1,895) lots, the short position was 112,417 (-654) lots, and the net short position was 30,553 (-2,549) lots.

On October 28, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,940 (+220) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,825 (+20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,805 (+27.5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,760 (+20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -684 (-75) yuan/ton.

As of October 22: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 269,395 (+18,701) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 211,960 (+2,510) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.33 (+0.58), cup lump 48.8 (+0.4), latex 54.2 (+0.2), RSS3 57.56 (+0.27).

As of October 21, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.49% (+1.96%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.26% (+1.74%).

Opinion: At present, the price of rubber is favored by funds due to the low price of bulk commodities, and the price fluctuates at high levels. But this week, because of the continuous rain in the main producing areas at home and abroad, rubber delivery was blocked. The continued rise in raw material prices has further strengthened the support for rubber costs. The current focus of the market is the decline in inventory in domestic bonded areas. As the arrivals at the port were not as expected, the port inventory continued to be destocked. However, with the improvement of logistics, it is expected that there will be pressure to concentrate on arrivals in the future, and the domestic supply side is expected to ease. Therefore, under the current price, the upward momentum is insufficient, and the price is expected to be adjusted. However, due to market sentiment and rising raw material prices, it is expected that there will be limited room for adjustment. It is not recommended to open further long positions and investors should wait for the opportunity to buy when prices hit low levels.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Sinopec increased production and guaranteed supply, and domestic diesel prices fell from a high level.

This week, Sinopec, the largest domestic refining and chemical company, will increase its refinery diesel output to ensure domestic supply. It plans to increase its output by 19% month-on-month in November. This week, domestic diesel prices dropped sharply from their highs. According to Longzhong data, the price of diesel dropped from 8,900 yuan/ton on October 21 to 7,800 yuan/ton on October 28, a drop of more than 1,000 yuan/ton. We believe that with the rapid adjustment of domestic refinery-side production, it is expected that the domestic diesel shortage will ease. However, it is still uncertain how Sinopec will increase diesel production. It is possible to increase the operating rate of the atmospheric and vacuum units, and it is also possible to increase the load of the secondary unit to increase the diesel yield. If it is the former, it will have a stimulating effect on domestic crude oil imports (but it is also possible to extract crude oil from strategic reserves). If it is the latter, it may cause new changes in the balance of supply and demand between domestic gasoline, diesel and coal.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads (Gasoil-Brent)

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: Domestic coal stopped the downward trend, and copper prices returned to volatility.

Spot: According to SMM, as the spot market declined yesterday, buying interest has increased, and market inquiries have increased. Holders maintained a sentiment of supporting price in the face of tight supply, which made the premiums and discounts pick up slightly. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of 360 yuan/ton for the next month's contract. Due to lower market prices, market inquirers have increased, but actual transactions have been scarce. It wasn't until some holders took the initiative to adjust the price to a premium of 350 yuan/ton, the market transaction improved. After the second trading session, a small amount of goods flowed out of the market with a quotation at a premium of 340 yuan/ton. But reluctantly, the market price rebounded to over 500 yuan/ton, which caused the buying interest in the market to return to insipid. Due to the continuous inflow of imported goods, the spread between High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper continued to narrow. After the second trading session, the price of CCC-P and other brands reached a premium of about 410-420 yuan/ton, but it is still difficult to have a large number of transactions. The supply of Hydro-Copper was relatively scarce, and the overall premium reported 220-260 yuan/ton. The downstream replenishes inventory on demand when the market price was around 70,000, and there were a small number of transactions.

On the macro level, in terms of the energy crisis, Putin asked to gradually increase the supply of natural gas in Europe on November 8. The easing of the energy crisis may push the price of natural gas down yesterday. But in the context of political games, this move does not necessarily mean Russia's compromise. At the same time, according to recent US EIA data, coal stocks fell to 84.3 million tons in August, a record low since 1997. Therefore, the energy crisis may continue to disrupt the market. In terms of inflation, the Bank of Canada unexpectedly announced the end of quantitative easing the day before and hinted that the timing of potential interest rate hikes has been advanced. The Central Bank of Brazil raised interest rates by 150 basis points and is expected to raise interest rates by the same amount in December, releasing early warning signs of the central bank’s rate hike and economic slowdown. Yesterday the European Central Bank issued the latest interest rate resolution, maintaining the three key interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. However, Lagarde admitted in a subsequent press conference that "the current inflation will last longer than expected", and the market has already expected the European Central Bank to raise interest rates next year. Judging from the data released yesterday, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 281,000 in the week of October 23, the lowest since March 20. The number of first applicants each week has steadily declined and is close to the pre-epidemic level. The labor market is showing signs of stabilization, but economic data has been weak. The US GDP grew by about 2.0% in the third quarter, the lowest since the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, consumption growth slowed sharply to 1.6% in the third quarter. Inflation coupled with the supply chain crisis continued to disrupt the US economy, and the market generally lowered US economic expectations. The U.S. 20--30-year Treasury yield curve has been inverted, which also shows signs of economic weakness. On the eve of the Fed’s FOMC meeting, according to market news, Biden’s tax and expenditure plan framework was cut from 3.5 trillion US dollars to 1.75 trillion US dollars, and the stimulus plan was cut in half. Under multiple negative factors, the content of the FOMC meeting has become the focus, which may guide the market.

Domestically, a piece of news yesterday broke the limit of the three coal brothers. At present, the degree of truthfulness of the information remains to be determined, but emotionally, the general decline in domestic commodities has been reversed.

From a fundamental perspective, on the mining side, Peru’s left-wing government on Wednesday asked the country’s Congress to authorize reforms to the country’s tax laws, focusing on raising taxes in the mining sector. The Peruvian community agreed to lift the road blockade affecting the Las Bambas mine. In terms of consumption, according to SMM research, although the recent correction of copper prices has been significant, processing companies are still being affected by the impact of power curtailment. In terms of premiums and discounts, buying interest has increased when the disk is down, and the premiums and discounts of Shanghai copper have increased compared with the previous day. Trading in Guangdong was not active, and the premiums and discounts of South China copper fell from the previous day. In terms of inventory, LME has substantially destocked 10025 tons, which is the largest destocking rate this year. SHFE has accumulated a small amount of library. In terms of imports, LME0-3 liters and discounts continued to fall, and the import price ratio was restored. However, the overall performance of buyers was cautious and actual transactions were limited.

On the whole, domestic coal has stopped the downward trend and copper prices have returned to turbulence. The FOMC meeting next week may guide the market. We maintain the judgment that the market will maintain wide fluctuations unilaterally and there might be downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Crude oil drives down the cost of PTA.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical obtained crude oil import quota; PX processing fees continue to be rapidly compressed.

(1) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. PX processing fees continue to be rapidly compressed.

2. PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages.

(1) The PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages; The current price of PTA processing fee of 650-700 yuan/ton or more is still overestimated, which may partly include the room for the rebound of PX processing fee. Crude oil drives down the cost of PTA.

3. Filament production and sales remain low

(1) The production and sales of filaments are still below 20%. The performance of terminal orders was insipid.

PTA supply has rebounded sharply, and terminal weaving and polyester operating rates are also expected to rebound. In November, it is expected that under the background of the two expansions of supply and demand, PTA will gradually enter the re-stocking cycle.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side; Regarding the absolute price of PTA, it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：黑色商品盘中巨震，铁矿盘面探底回升

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿受黑色商品大幅波动影响，全天呈探低回升态势，最高价699，最低价639，收盘价683.5，较上一交易日收盘价跌2.36%；持仓量420319手，-18555手；现货方面，青岛港进口铁矿盘中价格宽幅下跌，累计下跌30-40。现PB粉805-810，PB块935-945，超特粉475-485。

从成交来看，全国主港铁矿累计成交88万吨，环比上涨17%.远期现货：远期现货累计成交127万吨,环比上涨74%。下游方面，本周钢联五大材合计产量增加43.03万吨，表明短期钢厂生产有所恢复，对铁矿价格形成一定的支撑。

综合来看，上周外矿发运略有下降，国内矿有望因限电放松而略有恢复，供给端整体波动不大；需求端短期因钢厂复产而略受支撑；短期来看铁矿供需相对平衡，长期来看，受碳达峰政策影响，未来将大力推进非高炉炼铁技术示范，另外南非博茨瓦纳第一个矿区已经开始首次向中国出口铁矿产品，长期来看供给或有增量，但需求将继续减少，铁矿石价格维持震荡局面。后市继续重点关注外矿发运情况及下游钢厂复产情况。

策略：

单边：中性

套利：01-05正套

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：期现价差扩大

28号，RU主力收盘15170（+305）元/吨，混合胶报价12950元/吨（+125），主力合约基差-1295元/吨（-355）；前二十主力多头持仓81884（+1895），空头持仓112417（-654），净空持仓30533（-2549）。

28号，NR主力收盘价11940（+220）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1825（+20）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1805美元/吨（+27.5），印尼标胶1760（+20）美元/吨。主力合约基差-684（-75）元/吨。

截至10月22日：交易所总库存269395（+18701），交易所仓单211960（+2510）。

原料：生胶片53.33（+0.58），杯胶48.8（+0.4），胶水54.2（+0.2），烟片57.56（+0.27）。

截止10月21日，国内全钢胎开工率为60.49%（+1.96%），国内半钢胎开工率为56.26%(+1.74%）。

观点：目前橡胶价格因处大宗商品价格偏低位置，受到资金青睐，价格偏强震荡，而本周因为海内外主产区雨水持续，带来割胶受阻，原料价格继续回升使得橡胶成本支撑进一步增强，目前市场的关注点国内保税区库存的下降，因到港不及预期，港口库存持续去化，但随着物流的改善，预计后期有集中到港的压力，国内供应端有望缓解，因此当前价格下，继续上行动力不足，预计价格或有所调整，但因市场情绪以及原料价格走高，预计调整空间有限，不建议追多，等待逢低买入的机会。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：中石化增产保供，国内柴油价格高位回落

本周国内最大的炼化企业中石化将提高炼厂柴油产量全力保证国内供应，计划在11月份将产量环比提升19%，本周国内柴油价格从高位大幅回落，根据隆众数据，柴油价格从10月21日的8900元/吨跌至10月28日的7800元/吨，回落幅度超过1000元/吨，我们认为随着国内炼厂端生产进行较快调整，预计国内柴油荒的情况将会缓和，不过，目前中石化是通过何种方式增产柴油仍不确定，既有可能是通过提升常减压装置的开工率，也有可能提升二次装置负荷提高柴油收率，如果是前者那么对国内原油进口有拉动作用（但也有可能从战储中提取原油），如果是后者可能会让国内汽柴煤之间的供需平衡关系出现新的变化。

策略：单边谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：国内煤炭止住跌停态势，铜价重回震荡

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场随着盘面的走低买兴有所提升，市场询盘有所增多，持货商在货源偏紧的情况下维持挺价情绪，升贴水故小幅回暖。早市平水铜对下月票报价始于升水360元/吨后由于盘面走低，市场询价者有所增多，但实际成交稀少，部分持货商主动调价至升水350元/吨后市场成交有所好转，第二时段后听闻少量升水340元/吨货源流出，但无奈盘面反弹超500元/吨，市场买兴重归平淡。好铜由于进口货源的持续流但是和平水铜价差持续收窄，从早市升水480元/吨报价，跌至第二时段后CCC-P等品牌报至升水410-420元/吨左右依难寻大量成交。湿法铜货源则相对稀缺，整体报至升水220-260元/吨，下游在盘面70000左右时按需补库，少量成交。

宏观方面，能源危机方面，普京要求11月8日逐步开始增加欧洲天然气供应，能源危机的缓和的可能推动昨日天然气价格走低。但在政治博弈的背景下，此举并不一定意味着俄罗斯的妥协。同时，根据近日美国EIA数据显示，8月份煤炭库存降至8430万吨，创1997年以来新低。因此，能源危机或将持续干扰市场。通胀方面，前日加拿大央行意外宣布结束量化宽松，并暗示潜在加息时机提前；巴西央行上调利率150个基点，并预计12月将再加息相同幅度，释放出央行加息和经济减速的预警信号。昨日欧央行发布最新利率决议，维持三大关键利率不变，符合预期。但拉加德在随后的新闻发布会上承认“目前的通胀持续时间将超过预期”，目前市场已对欧央行明年加息存在预期。从昨日公布数据来看，美国10月23日当周首次申请失业救济人数28.1万人，为20年3月来新低，每周首申人数稳步下降，接近疫情前水平。劳动力市场出现企稳迹象，然而经济数据却表现疲软。三季度美国GDP增长约2.0%，为2020年二季度以来新低。同时，三季度消费增速大幅放缓至1.6%。通胀叠加供应链危机持续干扰美国经济，市场普遍下调美国经济预期，美国20年-30年国债收益率曲线出现倒挂，也表现出经济疲软迹象。美联储FOMC会议前夕，据市场消息，拜登的税收和支出计划框架总额从3.5万亿美元削减至1.75万亿美元，刺激计划惨遭腰斩。多重利空因素下，FOMC会议内容成为重点，或将为市场指引方向。

国内方面，昨日一则消息打破煤炭三兄弟跌停态势，目前对于信息真实程度尚待考究，但情绪上扭转了国内大宗商品的普跌态势。

基本面看，矿端方面，秘鲁左翼政府周三要求该国国会授权改革该国税法，重点提高矿业部门的税收。秘鲁社区同意解除影响 Las Bambas 矿的道路封锁。消费方面，据SMM调研，虽近期铜价回调幅度明显，但在限电影响下，加工企业目前受影响仍在。升贴水方面，盘面走低买兴有所提升，沪铜升贴水较前日上升。广东地区交投不活跃，华南铜升贴水较前日下降。库存方面，LME大幅去库10025吨，为今年最大去库幅度。SHFE小幅累库。进口方面，LME0-3升贴水持续回落，进口比价有所修复，但买方整体表现谨慎，实际成交有限。

整体看来，国内煤炭止住跌停态势，铜价重回震荡，下周FOMC会议或将为市场指引方向。单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：原油带动PTA成本回落

一、浙石化原油进口配额下放，PX加工费持续快速压缩

（1）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨。PX加工费持续快速压缩。

二、PTA开工率阶段性高位

（1）PTA开工率阶段性高位，目前PTA加工费650-700元/吨以上仍属高估，或部分包含PX加工费反弹的空间。原油带动PTA成本回落。

三、长丝产销仍维持低位

（1）长丝产销仍在20%，终端订单表现一般。

总体来看，PX浙石化虽有后续提负预期，但PX加工费左侧已打至低位，充分反映。而PTA供应大幅回升，终端织造加弹及聚酯开工率亦有回升预期，11月预期在供需两扩的背景下，PTA仍逐步进入重新累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：暂观望， PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧偏低估，PTA绝对价格观望。（2）跨期套利：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间