Iron Ore: The supply and demand of thread and hot-rolled coil are weak, and the room for iron ore to fall is open.

Since October, the Iron Ore 01 contract rebounded from 721.5 yuan/ton and then fell to a minimum of 616.5 yuan/ton, basically closing at the monthly lowest point. With the steady implementation of the national crude steel production restriction policy, the output of molten iron has continued to decline. At the same time, the downstream steel consumption performed poorly in "golden September and silver October". In addition to the repeated epidemics, the weak consumption of building materials, and the steel mills were not willing to replenish their stocks, causing the price of iron ore to continue to fall. In terms of spot, as of October 29, according to Mysteel's statistics, the iron ore forward spot price index was US$113.2/DT, down by US$5.1/DT from the beginning of the month.

On the supply side, the shipment of imported iron ore in October dropped from the previous month in September. The global iron ore shipments totaled 32.12 million tons per month on average, and the monthly average fell 1.15 million tons from the previous month. Among them, Australia's supply fell sharply from the previous month. The monthly average shipment volume in October was 17.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.63 million tons from the previous month, which was lower than the average monthly shipment level in August. Brazil’s average monthly shipment volume in October was 7.34 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons compared with September, and shipments declined for two consecutive months. In addition, the average monthly shipments of non-mainstream mines other than Australia and Brazil ended the downward trend for two consecutive months. In October, the average monthly shipments were 6.74 million tons, an increase of 780,000 tons compared with September. On the whole, as the price of iron ore continues to fall, the supply of iron ore will decrease to a certain extent.

On the demand side, China's production restriction policy steadily advanced in October, resulting in a continuous decline in molten iron output. As of October 30, Mysteel counted 247 steel mill samples in October that the average monthly molten iron output decreased by 120,000 tons from the previous month to 2.13 million tons. Considering that the production limit timeline will be completed in advance to the end of November, this will inevitably lead to a further decline in domestic iron ore consumption. More critically, in the later stage, iron ore smelting will still be subject to the dual restrictions of staggered production during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, making it difficult for domestic iron ore consumption to increase.

On the inventory side, the total amount of imported iron ore at ports in October has rebounded from the previous month. As of October 30, Mysteel has calculated that the total inventory of 45 ports is 144,919,500 tons, which is 11.7 million tons compared with the month-on-month period. The accumulation rate has increased. From June to October, the iron ore inventory has substantially accumulated about 18.7 million tons, and the inventory has reached a high level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the accumulation of inventory will continue in the later period.

On the whole, the steady advancement of national crude steel production restrictions requires companies to complete the reduction task by November. At the same time, domestic demand for steel has fallen sharply, and domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink. Coupled with the continued high inventory of imported iron ore, the pattern of oversupply of iron ore continues. With the recent sharp decline in ocean freight rates, the short-term landed cost of iron ore has decreased, and cost support is difficult to maintain. It is expected that the iron ore will still open up to the downside, and it is recommended to short the iron ore on when the prices hit high levels.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium-term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The supply recovery is limited, and the turning point of accumulated inventory may be delayed.

As for the speculation of the price changes of raw materials in November, due to the peak season and the seasonal rain weather has basically passed, it will usher in a time when there is less rain. Driven by high prices, the release of raw materials is expected to accelerate. The main domestic producing areas in Yunnan will come to the end of rubber delivery, and the output of raw materials will theoretically decrease on a month-on-month basis. However, from the perspective of historical prices, when the price of raw materials is in a low range, it is not conducive to the output of raw materials in November. In addition, the domestic rubber production in November was basically the same as in October or slightly increased. Therefore, the current level of raw material prices is not low, and the domestic raw material output is expected to maintain growth in November. The overall output of raw materials has rebounded, which is expected to bring about a fall in raw material prices.

Affected by the high ocean freight rates this year, since the second quarter, Thailand has exported a small amount of natural rubber to China, causing domestic arrivals to be less than expected, and port inventory continues to be destocked. Therefore, the amount of domestic natural rubber imported from Thailand in November is more critical. If the postponed shipping schedule can gradually enter the country with the reduction of ocean freight, it means that overseas production areas are normal, and China has also entered the accumulation cycle. Conversely, if the domestic inventory still does not usher in the accumulation of inventory, the impact on the supply side will be greater.

To summarize the above, the main production area in Yunnan will stop delivery in late November. The current high-priced raw materials are conducive to rubber delivery. It is expected that the domestic production growth rate in November can still be maintained. The peak season for rubber delivery is ushered in overseas due to the southern part of Thailand. Rainwater will also gradually decrease, and supply growth is expected to pick up due to high-priced raw materials. However, the current domestic supply is mainly concerned with the amount of arrival to Hong Kong, and it is expected that it may be relieved by the end of November at the earliest. Therefore, domestic supply pressure may increase or be more limited. However, due to the weak domestic economy and slow recovery of overseas demand, there are generally no bright spots in demand. However, the small peak of domestic terminal sales at the end of the year may give tire factories an incentive to increase their operating rate in November. However, under the high inventory of tire factories, the recovery of operating rate is expected to be limited until the terminal does not substantially improve. Therefore, demand may still be stable in November, and the contradiction in prices is still on the supply side. We believe that before the accumulation of inventory in domestic ports, prices are expected to remain strong and fluctuating. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying when prices hit low levels.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The oil market is structurally tight, and Iran's nuclear talks are restarted.

We believe that the uncertainty in the crude oil market in the fourth quarter has increased significantly, and market volatility will become more intense, mainly reflected in:

1. The uncertainty of natural gas spillover effects. There is no clear answer to how much the demand for natural gas substitution can boost the recovery of crude oil consumption. The market estimate has a wide range, ranging from 500,000 barrels/day to 2 million barrels/day. This depends on the relationship between oil and gas prices and the physical bottleneck of the facility. Taking into account the 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day gap in the crude oil market itself in the fourth quarter, there is no doubt that the balance sheet gap in the fourth quarter will continue to rise without increasing OPEC's production. This means that in the fourth quarter, the speed of crude oil inventories will be accelerated. Considering that the current global oil inventory has been at a 5-year low level, the impact of natural gas substitution demand on oil prices will be even more significant.

2. Progress in Iran's nuclear talks. The current Iran nuclear talks will be restarted before the end of November. Although the impact on supply and demand at the end of the year is limited, if the nuclear talks progress smoothly, it will have an important impact on the oil market next year.

3. How is the temperature this winter? Since the beginning of this year, global abnormal weather has increased significantly, extreme cold and high temperature have alternated, and heavy rains and droughts have also occurred frequently around the world. This makes it more difficult to predict the temperature this winter. If the extremely cold weather similar to last year occurs again this winter, it is expected to boost the energy varieties including heating oil again, which will become another fuse to detonate oil prices.

We believe that oil prices remained high in the fourth quarter, and the performance is likely to rise but never fall. There are still many stories to tell in areas such as natural gas substitution demand and extreme weather. At the same time, under the background of limited supply of shale oil in OPEC and the United States during the year, the supply of crude oil is inelastic, and the driving force of supply and demand is still strong. In the oil sector, thanks to the boost in consumption substitution, heating and other fields, we expect diesel, LPG and fuel oil to remain relatively strong varieties in the sector.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spreads (Gasoil-Brent)

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

PTA: Zhejiang Petrochemical obtained crude oil import quota; PX dragged down the rapid decline of PTA.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical obtained crude oil import quota; PX processing fees continue to be rapidly compressed.

(1) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. PX processing fees continue to shrink rapidly, and have reached a historical low below 140 US dollars/ton.

2. PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages.

(1) The PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages; The current price of PTA processing fee of 650-700 yuan/ton or more is still overestimated, which may partly include the room for the rebound of PX processing fee. Crude oil drives down the cost of PTA.

3. Filament production and sales remain low

(1) At the end of October, the start of polyester production only recovered to 84.2%, and the recovery is still slow. The performance of terminal orders is sisipid.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side, and crude oil forecasts have limited room for decline.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：成材供需两弱，铁矿下跌空间打开

10月份以来，铁矿01合约从721.5元/吨先反弹后下跌至最低616.5元/吨，基本收于月度最低点。随着全国粗钢压产政策稳步实施，铁水产量持续下降，同时下游钢材消费“金九银十”成色明显不足，加之疫情的反复，建材的消费表现弱势，钢厂补库意愿不足，使得铁矿价格延续下跌。现货方面，截止10月29日，Mysteel铁矿石远期现货价格指数113.2美元/干吨，环比月初下跌5.1美元/干吨。

供应端，10月份进口铁矿发运较9月环比有所回落，全球铁矿石月周均发运总量3,212万吨，月周均环比降低115万吨；其中澳洲供应量环比大降， 10月月周均发运量1，718万吨，环比上月降低163万吨，低于8月分月均周发运水平；巴西10月月周均发运量为734万吨，较9月下降14万吨，连续两月发运下降；此外初澳巴以外非主流矿月周均发运结束连续两月下跌趋势，10月份月周均发运674万吨，较9月环比增加78万吨。整体来看，随着铁矿石价格的继续下跌，铁矿石供应将出现一定的减量。

需求端，10月份中国压产政策稳步推进，导致铁水产量持续下降，截至10月30日，Mysteel统计247家钢厂样本10月铁水产量月周均环比上月下降12万吨至213万吨，考虑到压产时间线将提前至11月底完成，由此必然造成国内铁矿消费的进一步萎缩。更为关键的是后期钢铁冶炼仍将受到采暖季错峰生产和冬奥会的双重限制，国内铁矿消费难以提升。

库存端，10月进口铁矿到港总量较上一月有所回升，截至10月30日，Mysteel统计45港港口库存总量14491.95万吨，月环比累库1,170万吨.累库幅度加大。6月-10月，铁矿库存有实质性累积1,870万吨左右，库存已至近年同期高位水平，预计后期累库仍将继续。

整体来看，全国粗钢压产的稳步推进并要求企业在11月前完成压减任务，同时国内对钢材需求大幅下滑，国内铁矿消费将进一步萎缩，加上进口铁矿的持续高库存，从而延续铁矿供应过剩的格局。随着近期海运费大幅回落后，短期铁矿的到岸成本降低，成本支撑难以维持。预计铁矿仍将向下空间将打开，建议逢高做空铁矿。

策略：

单边：中期看空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：供应回升有限，累库拐点或延后

对于11月原料价格变化的推测，因处于旺季，且季节性的雨水天气基本过去，将迎来雨水较少的时间点，在高位价格带动下，原料释放有望加速。国内云南主产区则将进入到割胶尾声，原料产出理论上环比减少。但从历史价格来看，当原料价格处于偏低的区间时，则不利于11月原料的产出，除此以外，国内11月的橡胶产量基本都是与10月份持平或小增的状态，因此，目前原料价格水平不低，预计国内11月原料产出维持增速。总体原料产出有所回升，预计将带来原料价格的重新回落。

从分国别的产量数据来看，越南四季度已经进入到供应淡季，11月份产量预计进一步下行，而国内今年因高价原料以及气候适宜，全乳产量增加明显，因此，在当下全乳与3L价差达到历史高位的时候，后期可以重点关注两者价差收窄的机会。同样因为季节性，泰标与印标的价差也将逐步回落。

今年受海运费高企的影响，二季度以来泰国出口到国内的天然橡胶的量较少，带来国内到港不及预期，港口库存持续去化。因此，11月份国内进口自泰国天然橡胶量就显得较为关键，如果随着海运费下调，推迟的船期可以逐步进入到国内，则说明海外的产区是正常的，国内也相应步入到累库周期。反之，如果国内库存依然没有迎来累库，则供应端的影响将比较大。

总结以上，国内云南主产区11月下旬步入停割，当前高价原料有利于割胶，预计11月国内产量增速仍可以维持，海外因泰国南部迎来割胶旺季，雨水也将逐步减少，高价原料下，供应增速有望回升，但目前国内的供应主要关注到港量，预计最快11月底或才能有所缓解，因此，国内供应压力增加或较为有限。而需求因国内经济偏弱，海外需求恢复缓慢，总体没有亮点，但国内年底终端销售小高峰或使得轮胎厂11月有提升开工率的动力，但轮胎厂高库存下，终端没有实质好转之前，预计开工率回升有限，因此，11月需求或仍呈现偏稳定的状态，价格的矛盾还在供应端。我们认为，国内港口库存没有累库之前，预计价格维持偏强震荡。建议保持逢低买入的思路。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：库存大幅回升，产区供应量大增，需求继续示弱。

原油：油市结构性偏紧，伊朗核谈重启

我们认为四季度原油市场的不确定性显著增加，市场波动将会更加剧烈，主要体现在：1、天然气外溢效应的不确定性，天然气替代需求究竟能对原油消费带来多大复苏的提振，目前没有明确答案，市场预估的范围较宽，从50万桶/日到200万桶/日不等，这取决于油气比价关系以及设施的物理瓶颈，而考虑到四季度原油市场本身存在的100~150万桶/日的缺口，在欧佩克不追加增产的情况下，毫无疑问四季度的平衡表缺口会继续上调，这就意味着四季度原油库存去化速度会有所加快，而考虑到目前全球石油库存已经处于5年同期低位，天然气替代需求对油价的冲击将会更加显著；2、伊朗核谈进展，目前伊朗核谈将会在11月底前重启，虽然对年底供需影响有限，但如果核谈进展顺利，将对明年的油市产生重要影响；3、今冬气温如何，今年以来，全球异常天气显著增加，极寒与高温交替出现，暴雨与旱灾也在全球频繁发生，这使得预测今年冬天的气温变得较为困难，如果今冬再度出现类似去年的极寒天气，预计将对取暖油在内的能源品种再度形成提振，从而成为引爆油价的另一个导火索。

我们认为四季度油价仍旧维持高位，表现上易涨难跌，天然气替代需求以及极端天气等领域仍有较多故事可讲，同时在欧佩克与美国页岩油年内供应释放有限的背景下，原油供应缺乏弹性，供需驱动仍偏强，而在油品板块内部，得益于消费替代、取暖等领域的提振，我们预计柴油、LPG以及燃料油仍旧是板块内相对更为强势的品种。

策略：谨慎偏多，布油偏多思路对待，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国大幅释放原油战略储备

PTA：浙石化原油配额下放，PX拖累PTA快速回落

一、浙石化原油进口配额下放，PX加工费持续快速压缩

（1）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨，后续PX有提负预期。PX加工费持续快速压缩，已至140美元/吨以下历史低位。

二、PTA开工率阶段性高位，PTA进入累库周期

（1）PTA开工率阶段性高位，目前PTA加工费650-700元/吨以上仍属高估，进入累库周期后有压缩预期。原油带动PTA成本回落。

三、聚酯工厂恢复不及预期

（1）10月底聚酯开工仅恢复至84.2%，恢复仍慢。终端订单表现一般，对长丝再库存意愿亦有所转弱。

平衡表展望：PTA11-12月逐步进入累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：暂观望， PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧基本压缩到位，原油预估下跌看空间有限。（2）跨期套利：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间