Iron Ore: Iron ore: consumption by steel mills has weakened, and iron ore has continued its downward trend.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the iron ore 01 contract continued its downward trend. The closing price was 618.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. Port spot prices fluctuated down in the afternoon session, with a cumulative drop of 5-15 yuan/ton throughout the day.

On the supply side, global iron ore shipments this week increased by 1.41 million tons from the previous month to 30.29 million tons, and the shipment volume has picked up to a certain extent. Domestic ores are expected to gradually recover due to the relaxation of power restrictions, and the overall supply side fluctuates little. On the demand side, the national crude steel output continued to remain low. At the same time, domestic steel demand has fallen sharply, and domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink. On the whole, iron ore will continue to oversupply and the imported iron ore inventory will continue to accumulate. With the recent sharp drop in ocean freight, the short-term landed cost of iron ore has decreased, and cost support is difficult to maintain. It is expected that iron ore will still open up downward space, and it is recommended to short iron ore when prices hit high levels.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The price of raw materials presented a mix of gains and lossed, and the price of rubber was adjusted.

On November 01, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,600 (-280) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,700 (-125) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -675 yuan/ton (+95); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 73,909 (-3,947) lots, the short position was 109,039 (-2,359) lots, and the net short position was 35,130 (+1,588) lots.

On November 01, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,690 (-250) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,815 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,805 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,750 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -206 (+300) yuan/ton.

As of October 22: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 269,395 (+18,701) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 211,960 (+2,510) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.55 (0), cup lump 49 (+0.15), latex 54.8 (+0.3), RSS3 57.50 (-0.3).

As of October 21, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.49% (+1.96%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.26% (+1.74%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the price of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas went up and down. The price of raw materials is generally on the high side, which strongly supports the cost of rubber. The current focus of the market is the decline in inventory in domestic bonded areas. As the arrivals at the port were not as expected, the port inventory continued to be destocked. However, with the improvement of logistics, it is expected that there will be pressure of concentrated arrivals in the later period, and the domestic supply side is expected to ease. Therefore, under the current price, the upward momentum is insufficient, and the price is expected to be adjusted. However, due to market sentiment and rising raw material prices, it is expected that there will be limited room for adjustment. It is not recommended to further open long positions and investors should wait for the opportunity to buy when price hits low a level.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: OPEC may maintain its original production increase plan unchanged.

OPEC will hold its monthly ministerial meeting this Thursday. At this meeting, OPEC may continue to maintain its original production increase plan unchanged, that is, continue to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. Kuwait and Iraq have made it clear that they will support the original production increase plan unchanged. The Saudi Arabian Oil Minister also said earlier that increasing oil production will not greatly improve the current natural gas crisis. While OPEC's core oil-producing countries are still cautious, the possibility of changing the original production increase plan is currently low. In addition, Iran’s nuclear talks are expected to restart in November, which will also bring new unfavorable factors to OPEC’s production increase. OPEC does not want to see a repeat of the situation similar to that in October 2018 (At that time, OPEC increased production ahead of the expiration of Iran's sanctions exemption, but then Trump extended the exemption period, resulting in a sharp drop in oil prices). In addition, considering that the crude oil market in the first quarter of next year will enter the traditional off-season for consumption, increased production may lead to an imbalance between supply and demand in the first quarter. Therefore, in summary, OPEC will still maintain a cautious strategy of increasing production.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spread

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the work of ensuring coal supply and price stabilization has achieved results.

Spot: According to SMM, yesterday was the first trading day in November, and the long-term trade order was reopened. In addition, the morning market was operating near 70,000 yuan/ton, which attracted downstream to the market to replenish inventory to a certain extent. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 370-380 yuan/ton to test downstream buying. Seeing that the market price fell slightly, downstream buyers lowered the market price to a premium of 350-360 yuan/ton, which made the transaction slightly better, but the market price continued to rise. After the second trading session, although the spot market adjusted its price to a premium of about 340 yuan/ton, the overall buying interest in the market was sluggish and there were few large transactions. After the inflow of imported goods in the High-Grade Copper market was gradually digested last week, today's holders once again showed a strong supporting price sentiment, making the overall quotation of High-Grade Copper to 450-500 yuan/ton. Guixi Copper was even more priced at a premium of 520 yuan/ton, but the market’s popularity was limited, and there were few large transactions in the market. Hydro-Copper was quoted at a premium of 240-280 yuan/ton under the guidance of Norlisk and other brands. When the market supply was tight, the seller was unwilling to adjust prices significantly, and the downstream only maintained rigid demand purchases at low market prices.

From the macro perspective, in terms of the energy crisis, according to data from the German Gascade gas pipeline operator, last Saturday, the supply of natural gas from Russia to Germany (from east to west) through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline dropped to zero. This will have an impact on market sentiment. The announcement of the G20 summit communique over the weekend did not clarify specific actions and measures, and the Glasgow Climate Conference became the focus of the market. In terms of data, the US October ISM manufacturing index was released. Although it was better than expected, it was down from September. Among them, the price payment index continued to climb, and the new order index was sluggish. At the same time, the final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in October fell to 58.4, a record low since December 2020. At present, there are still challenges in the supply chain, which is a drag on the manufacturing activities in the United States.

Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission website announced that the work of ensuring coal supply and price stabilization has achieved initial results, and the national coal supply and demand situation has improved significantly. Previously, the "difficult to refuel" problem of diesel has been alleviated in various places. According to market research, the wholesale price of No. 0 diesel in Hebei has dropped by more than 1,000 yuan per ton.

On the whole, the Development and Reform Commission stated that the work of ensuring coal supply and price stabilization has achieved results, and the market is concerned about the Fed's FOMC meeting. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Zhejiang Petrochemical PX gradually increases production load.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical PX gradually increased its production load, and PX processing fees continued to be low.

(1) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the PX processing fee is expected to continue to be low.

2. PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages, and PTA has entered the cycle of accumulating inventory.

(1) After entering the accumulation inventory cycle, the PTA processing fee is expected to be compressed, and it is expected to be compressed to around 500-600.

3. The recovery of the polyester factory fell short of expectations.

(1) The recovery of polyester production is still slow.

(2) At the beginning of the week, the production and sales of filaments were only 20%.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side, and crude oil forecasts have limited room for decline.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：钢厂消费趋弱，铁矿延续跌势

逻辑和观点：

昨日铁矿01合约延续下跌走势，收盘价为618.5元/吨，环比下跌37.5元/吨，港口现货午后价格震荡下行，全天累计下跌5-15元/吨。

供应端，本周全球铁矿发运环比增加141万吨至3029万吨，发运量有一定回升，国内矿有望因限电放松逐步恢复，供给端整体波动不大。需求端，全国粗钢产量继续维持低位，同时国内钢材需求大幅下滑，国内铁矿消费将进一步萎缩。整体来看，铁矿将延续供过于求的格局，进口铁矿库存将持续累积。随着近期海运费大幅回落，短期铁矿的到岸成本降低，成本支撑难以维持。预计铁矿仍将向下空间将打开，建议逢高做空铁矿。

策略：

单边：中期看空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：原料价格涨跌互现，胶价调整

1号，RU主力收盘14600（-280）元/吨，混合胶报价12700元/吨（-125），主力合约基差-675元/吨（+95）；前二十主力多头持仓73909（-3947），空头持仓109039（-2359），净空持仓35130（+1588）。

1号，NR主力收盘价11690（-250）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1815（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1805美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1750（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-206（+300）元/吨。

截至10月22日：交易所总库存269395（+18701），交易所仓单211960（+2510）。

原料：生胶片53.55（0），杯胶49（+0.15），胶水54.8（+0.3），烟片57.50（-0.3）。

截止10月21日，国内全钢胎开工率为60.49%（+1.96%），国内半钢胎开工率为56.26%(+1.74%）。

观点：昨天泰国主产区原料价格涨跌互现，原料价格总体处于偏高位置，对橡胶成本支撑较强。目前市场的关注点国内保税区库存的下降，因到港不及预期，港口库存持续去化，但随着物流的改善，预计后期有集中到港的压力，国内供应端有望缓解，因此当前价格下，继续上行动力不足，预计价格或有所调整，但因市场情绪以及原料价格走高，预计调整空间有限，不建议追多，等待逢低买入的机会。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：欧佩克或维持原有增产计划不变

本周周四欧佩克将举行月度部长级例会，本次会议上，欧佩克或将继续维持原有增产计划不变，即继续增产40万桶/日到年底。科威特和伊拉克已经明确表示将会支持原有增产计划不变，而沙特油长也在此前称，增产石油对于当前的天然气危机并没有太大的改善作用，在欧佩克核心产油国依然谨慎的情况下，目前改变原有增产计划的可能性偏低，此外，伊朗核谈预计将在11月重启，这也对欧佩克的增产带来新的不利因素，欧佩克并不希望看到类似2018年10月份情况的重演(当时欧佩克在伊朗制裁豁免到期前提前增产，但随后川普延长了豁免时间，导致油价大幅下跌)。此外，考虑到明年一季度原油市场将会进入到传统消费淡季，增产或将导致一季度供需失衡，因此综上来看，欧佩克仍将维持谨慎增产的策略。

策略：谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国大幅释放原油战略储备

铜：发改委表态煤炭保供稳价工作取得成效

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日是11月第一个交易日，贸易长单重新开启，叠加早市盘面在接近70000元/吨附近运行，一定程度上吸引下游入市备库。早市平水铜始报于升水370-380元/吨，试探下游买兴，下游见盘面小幅回落压价于升水350-360元/吨成交略显好转，但无奈盘面持续攀高，第二时段后现货市场虽然调价至升水340元/吨左右，但市场整体买兴阑珊，难闻大量成交。好铜市场在上周流入的进口货源逐渐消化后今日持货商再度呈现挺价情绪，整体报至升水450-500元/吨，贵溪铜更是挺价于升水520元/吨，但无奈市场青睐度有限，下游追求性价比下市场难闻大量成交。湿法铜则在Norlisk等品牌报价指引下整体报至升水240-280元/吨之间，市场货源偏紧的情况下卖方不愿大幅调价，下游仅在盘面低位维持刚需采购。

宏观方面，能源危机方面，据德国Gascade天然气管道运营商的数据显示，上周六，俄罗斯通过亚马尔-欧洲天然气管道向德国输送的天然气供应（由东向西）一度降至零。此举对于市场情绪产生影响。周末G20峰会公报的发布，未对具体行动措施进行明确，格拉斯哥气候大会成为市场关注重点。数据方面，美国10月ISM制造业指数公布，虽好于预期但较9月下降，其中物价支付指数继续攀升，新订单指数低迷。同时美国10月Markit制造业PMI终值降至58.4，创2020年12月份以来新低。目前供应链问题仍然存在挑战，拖累美国的制造业活动。

国内方面，发改委网站发布消息称，煤炭保供稳价工作取得阶段性成效，全国煤炭供需形势明显好转。此前各地出现柴油“加油难”的问题的缓解，据市场调研，河北地区零号柴油批发价目前已下降超千元每吨。

整体看来，发改委表态煤炭保供稳价工作取得成效，市场关注美联储FOMC会议。单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

PTA：浙石化PX逐步提负

一、浙石化PX逐步提负，PX加工费持续低位

（1）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨。11月1日，浙石化PX两条线已提升至满负荷，PX供应量逐步回升，PX加工费预期持续低位。

二、PTA开工率仍阶段性高位，PTA进入累库周期

（1）PTA开工率阶段性高位，进入累库周期后PTA加工费有压缩预期，预期或压缩至500-600附近。

三、聚酯工厂恢复不及预期

（1）聚酯开工恢复仍慢。终端订单表现一般，对长丝再库存意愿亦有所转弱。（2）周初长丝产销仅20%。

平衡表展望：PTA11-12月逐步进入累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：暂观望， PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧基本压缩到位，原油预估下跌看空间有限。（2）跨期套利：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间