Iron Ore: The market panic spreads, and the iron ore dropped to a limit.
Logic and perspective:
Yesterday, the iron ore 01 contract fell all the way, and finally dropped to a limit at the close. The closing price was 565.5 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The port spot price also dropped sharply, with a cumulative drop of more than 80 yuan/ton throughout the day.
On the supply side, global iron ore shipments this week increased by 1.41 million tons from the previous month to 30.29 million tons, and the shipment volume has picked up to a certain extent. Domestic ores are expected to gradually recover due to the relaxation of power restrictions, and the overall supply side fluctuates little. On the demand side, the national crude steel output continued to remain low. At the same time, domestic steel demand has fallen sharply, and domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink. On the whole, iron ore will continue to oversupply and the imported iron ore inventory will continue to accumulate. With the recent sharp drop in ocean freight, the short-term landed cost of iron ore has decreased, and cost support is difficult to maintain. It is expected that iron ore will still open up downward space, and it is recommended to short iron ore when prices hit high levels.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.
2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.
Rubber: Port inventory continues to be destocked.
On November 2, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,390 (-210) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,625 (-75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -640 yuan/ton (+35); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 78,729 (+4,820) lots, the short position was 106,307 (-2,732) lots, and the net short position was 27,578 (-7,552) lots.
On November 2, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,320 (-120) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,790 (-25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,760 (-45) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,730 (-20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -246 (-40) yuan/ton.
As of October 22: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 269,395 (+18,701) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 211,960 (+2,510) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.7 (-0.85), cup lump 48.5 (-0.5), latex 54.8 (0), RSS3 57.22 (-0.28).
As of October 21, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.49% (+1.96%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.26% (+1.74%).
Opinion: Affected by the weakening of the overall market sentiment, the rubber fell sharply during the session yesterday, and rebounded at the end of the afternoon session, and the overall trend of adjustment was maintained. As of last week, the domestic Qingdao port inventory continued to decline, of which due to the ease of logistics, domestic arrivals have recovered. Downstream procurement also picked up, and overall inventory continued to decline. Affected by the recent futures market adjustment, raw material prices in Thailand dropped somewhat yesterday. However, the current price of raw materials is high and the performance is strong, and the cost support for rubber is still strong. Due to the impact of restricted logistics, the inflection point of the inventory accumulation of domestic ports is expected to be postponed, and the price of rubber is expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to look for the opportunity to buy when price hits low a level.
Strategy: Cautiously bullish
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: API data showed that Cushing's inventory declined slightly.
Yesterday’s API inventory data showed that Cushing’s inventory in the United States declined slightly, while Genscape data on Monday showed that Cushing’s inventory was slightly accumulated by 800,000 barrels. We have previously analyzed that the main reason why Cushing's inventory deviates from the national commercial inventory is the strong export demand in the U.S. Gulf and the impact of Hurricane Ida, which led to an increase in the amount of oil extracted from Cushing in the PADD3 area. In addition, Capline was put into production earlier than expected, and the pipeline oil injection also increased the oil extraction volume by 5 million barrels. The situation has changed this week, with the Centurion pipeline from Texas to Cushing temporarily reducing the rate. The pipeline has a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day. After the rate is lowered, it will help shale oil in the Permian area flow to Cushing. At the same time, as the Cushing-MEH arbitrage window is closed, it is expected that the amount of transportation from the Seaway and Marketlink pipelines to the US Gulf will also decrease this month, so as to avoid the risk of Cushing's inventory falling to the bottom of the tank. Cushing inventory is expected to bottom out this month.
Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spread
Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.
Copper: China continues to pay attention to commodity prices, and investors need to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate meeting in the evening.
Spot: According to SMM news, the spot market's premiums and discounts show a trend of opening lower and then moving higher. In the morning market session, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 350-360 yuan/ton, and market inquiries remained positive. After the buyers took the initiative to buy in large quantities, the market price gradually returned to a premium of 370-380 yuan/ton. After the second trading session, with the continuous correction of market prices, the Standard-Grade Copper premium increased again to 390-400 yuan/ton, and there was no room for price reduction. After the obvious digestion of the High-Grade Copper yesterday, yesterday's quotation was steady and firm, and its spread with the Standard-Grade Copper was likely to expand again. The morning quotation was in the range of a premium of 480-500 yuan/ton. After the second trading session, the price of High-Grade Copper was basically stable at a premium of 500-520 yuan/ton. Some brands can report a premium of around 550 yuan/ton in late trading, indicating that the holders were reluctant to sell. Hydro-Copper was still quoted at a premium of 270-310 yuan/ton under the guidance of Nolrisk, BMK and other brands. Under the tight supply situation, the overall price of Hydro-Copper remained firm, while buyers and sellers had slight differences on prices.
On the macro level, costs have soared due to supply chain bottlenecks and logistics problems. Same as the day before, the US PMI data continued to decline. The final Eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was 58.3, the lowest level in eight months. At the same time, inflationary pressures have increased. Official data last week showed that although the Eurozone economy continued to grow in the summer, due to the recent rebound in the epidemic, the continued implementation of the blockade caused inflation to exceed expectations. European Central Bank President Lagarde said on Thursday that inflation will continue for a longer period of time, but he denied the speculation that the market will raise interest rates as soon as next year because of excessive inflation pressure.
On the domestic front, the Premier of the State Council hosted a symposium on the development and expansion of market entities, and proposed to improve the long-term mechanism of market supervision, oppose monopoly and unfair competition, combat hoarding and drive up prices, and maintain a fair and just market order. Vice Premier Han Zheng held a symposium at the State Grid and emphasized the need to increase the supply of thermal coal and natural gas through multiple channels, continue to ensure the supply of thermal coal and stabilize prices, and vigorously promote the clean use of coal.
On the whole, the state continues to monitor commodity prices, and investors should focus on the Fed’s FOMC meeting. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.
1. Unilateral: Cautiously bearish
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: Fujia Dahua's resumption of work has been delayed; filament production and sales are still weak.
1. (1) One production line of Fujia Dahua will restart in mid-November, while the other production line will be postponed to restart in January.
(2) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the PX processing fee is expected to continue to be low.
2. PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages, and PTA has entered the cycle of accumulating inventory.
(1) After entering the accumulation inventory cycle, the PTA processing fee is expected to be compressed, and it is expected to be compressed to around 500-600.
3. The recovery of the polyester factory fell short of expectations.
(1) On Tuesday, the production and sales of filaments were only 25%.
Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.
(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side, and crude oil forecasts have limited room for decline.
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
1. 单边：谨慎偏空 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧