Iron Ore: The market panic spreads, and the iron ore dropped to a limit.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the iron ore 01 contract fell all the way, and finally dropped to a limit at the close. The closing price was 565.5 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The port spot price also dropped sharply, with a cumulative drop of more than 80 yuan/ton throughout the day.

On the supply side, global iron ore shipments this week increased by 1.41 million tons from the previous month to 30.29 million tons, and the shipment volume has picked up to a certain extent. Domestic ores are expected to gradually recover due to the relaxation of power restrictions, and the overall supply side fluctuates little. On the demand side, the national crude steel output continued to remain low. At the same time, domestic steel demand has fallen sharply, and domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink. On the whole, iron ore will continue to oversupply and the imported iron ore inventory will continue to accumulate. With the recent sharp drop in ocean freight, the short-term landed cost of iron ore has decreased, and cost support is difficult to maintain. It is expected that iron ore will still open up downward space, and it is recommended to short iron ore when prices hit high levels.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Port inventory continues to be destocked.

On November 2, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,390 (-210) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,625 (-75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -640 yuan/ton (+35); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 78,729 (+4,820) lots, the short position was 106,307 (-2,732) lots, and the net short position was 27,578 (-7,552) lots.

On November 2, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,320 (-120) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,790 (-25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,760 (-45) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,730 (-20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -246 (-40) yuan/ton.

As of October 22: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 269,395 (+18,701) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 211,960 (+2,510) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.7 (-0.85), cup lump 48.5 (-0.5), latex 54.8 (0), RSS3 57.22 (-0.28).

As of October 21, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.49% (+1.96%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.26% (+1.74%).

Opinion: Affected by the weakening of the overall market sentiment, the rubber fell sharply during the session yesterday, and rebounded at the end of the afternoon session, and the overall trend of adjustment was maintained. As of last week, the domestic Qingdao port inventory continued to decline, of which due to the ease of logistics, domestic arrivals have recovered. Downstream procurement also picked up, and overall inventory continued to decline. Affected by the recent futures market adjustment, raw material prices in Thailand dropped somewhat yesterday. However, the current price of raw materials is high and the performance is strong, and the cost support for rubber is still strong. Due to the impact of restricted logistics, the inflection point of the inventory accumulation of domestic ports is expected to be postponed, and the price of rubber is expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to look for the opportunity to buy when price hits low a level.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API data showed that Cushing's inventory declined slightly.

Yesterday’s API inventory data showed that Cushing’s inventory in the United States declined slightly, while Genscape data on Monday showed that Cushing’s inventory was slightly accumulated by 800,000 barrels. We have previously analyzed that the main reason why Cushing's inventory deviates from the national commercial inventory is the strong export demand in the U.S. Gulf and the impact of Hurricane Ida, which led to an increase in the amount of oil extracted from Cushing in the PADD3 area. In addition, Capline was put into production earlier than expected, and the pipeline oil injection also increased the oil extraction volume by 5 million barrels. The situation has changed this week, with the Centurion pipeline from Texas to Cushing temporarily reducing the rate. The pipeline has a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day. After the rate is lowered, it will help shale oil in the Permian area flow to Cushing. At the same time, as the Cushing-MEH arbitrage window is closed, it is expected that the amount of transportation from the Seaway and Marketlink pipelines to the US Gulf will also decrease this month, so as to avoid the risk of Cushing's inventory falling to the bottom of the tank. Cushing inventory is expected to bottom out this month.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spread

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: China continues to pay attention to commodity prices, and investors need to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate meeting in the evening.

Spot: According to SMM news, the spot market's premiums and discounts show a trend of opening lower and then moving higher. In the morning market session, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 350-360 yuan/ton, and market inquiries remained positive. After the buyers took the initiative to buy in large quantities, the market price gradually returned to a premium of 370-380 yuan/ton. After the second trading session, with the continuous correction of market prices, the Standard-Grade Copper premium increased again to 390-400 yuan/ton, and there was no room for price reduction. After the obvious digestion of the High-Grade Copper yesterday, yesterday's quotation was steady and firm, and its spread with the Standard-Grade Copper was likely to expand again. The morning quotation was in the range of a premium of 480-500 yuan/ton. After the second trading session, the price of High-Grade Copper was basically stable at a premium of 500-520 yuan/ton. Some brands can report a premium of around 550 yuan/ton in late trading, indicating that the holders were reluctant to sell. Hydro-Copper was still quoted at a premium of 270-310 yuan/ton under the guidance of Nolrisk, BMK and other brands. Under the tight supply situation, the overall price of Hydro-Copper remained firm, while buyers and sellers had slight differences on prices.

On the macro level, costs have soared due to supply chain bottlenecks and logistics problems. Same as the day before, the US PMI data continued to decline. The final Eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was 58.3, the lowest level in eight months. At the same time, inflationary pressures have increased. Official data last week showed that although the Eurozone economy continued to grow in the summer, due to the recent rebound in the epidemic, the continued implementation of the blockade caused inflation to exceed expectations. European Central Bank President Lagarde said on Thursday that inflation will continue for a longer period of time, but he denied the speculation that the market will raise interest rates as soon as next year because of excessive inflation pressure.

On the domestic front, the Premier of the State Council hosted a symposium on the development and expansion of market entities, and proposed to improve the long-term mechanism of market supervision, oppose monopoly and unfair competition, combat hoarding and drive up prices, and maintain a fair and just market order. Vice Premier Han Zheng held a symposium at the State Grid and emphasized the need to increase the supply of thermal coal and natural gas through multiple channels, continue to ensure the supply of thermal coal and stabilize prices, and vigorously promote the clean use of coal.

On the whole, the state continues to monitor commodity prices, and investors should focus on the Fed’s FOMC meeting. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bearish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Fujia Dahua's resumption of work has been delayed; filament production and sales are still weak.

1. (1) One production line of Fujia Dahua will restart in mid-November, while the other production line will be postponed to restart in January.

(2) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the PX processing fee is expected to continue to be low.

2. PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages, and PTA has entered the cycle of accumulating inventory.

(1) After entering the accumulation inventory cycle, the PTA processing fee is expected to be compressed, and it is expected to be compressed to around 500-600.

3. The recovery of the polyester factory fell short of expectations.

(1) On Tuesday, the production and sales of filaments were only 25%.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side, and crude oil forecasts have limited room for decline.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：市场恐慌蔓延，铁矿跌停收盘

逻辑和观点：

昨日铁矿01合约一路下跌，最终以跌停收盘，收盘价为565.5元/吨，环比下跌62.5元/吨，港口现货也大幅下杀，全天累计下跌超80元/吨。

供应端，本周全球铁矿发运环比增加141万吨至3029万吨，发运量有一定回升，国内矿有望因限电放松逐步恢复，供给端整体波动不大。需求端，全国粗钢产量继续维持低位，同时国内钢材需求大幅下滑，国内铁矿消费将进一步萎缩。整体来看，铁矿将延续供过于求的格局，进口铁矿库存将持续累积。随着近期海运费大幅回落，短期铁矿的到岸成本降低，成本支撑难以维持。预计铁矿仍将向下空间将打开，建议逢高做空铁矿。

策略：

单边：中期看空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：港口库存延续去化

2号，RU主力收盘14390（-210）元/吨，混合胶报价12625元/吨（-75），主力合约基差-640元/吨（+35）；前二十主力多头持仓78729（+4820），空头持仓106307（-2732），净空持仓27578（-7552）。

2号，NR主力收盘价11320（-120）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1790（-25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1760美元/吨（-45），印尼标胶1730（-20）美元/吨。主力合约基差-246（-40）元/吨。

截至10月29日：交易所总库存285213（+15818），交易所仓单220320（+8360）。

原料：生胶片52.7（-0.85），杯胶48.5（-0.5），胶水54.8（0），烟片57.22（-0.28）。

截止10月28日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.43%（-2.06%），国内半钢胎开工率为54.87%(-1.39%）。

观点：受整体市场氛围转弱的影响，昨天橡胶盘中大幅下行，尾盘有所回升，总体维持调整走势。截至上周的国内青岛港口库存延续下降，其中因物流的缓解，国内到港有所恢复，而下游拿货也有回升，总体库存延续下降。受近期期货盘面调整的影响，昨天泰国原料价格有所回落，但目前原料价格高位且表现坚挺，对于橡胶的成本支撑仍较强。因受限物流影响，预计国内港口累库拐点将延后，胶价有望维持偏强震荡，建议寻找逢低买入的机会。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API数据显示库欣库存小幅下降

昨日API库存数据显示美国库欣库存小幅下降，而在本周一Genscape数据显示库欣库存小幅累库80万桶，我们此前分析过库欣库存之所以和全美商业库存背离，主要原因是美湾出口需求旺盛叠加飓风艾达影响了供应，导致PADD3地区从库欣的提油量增加，此外Capline投产早于预期，管道注油也增加了500万桶的提油量，而本周情况有了新变化，从德州到库欣的Centurion管道临时降低了费率，该管道输送能力在70万桶日，费率降低之后，将有助于Permian地区的页岩油流向库欣，与此同时，由于Cushing-MEH套利窗口关闭，预计本月从Seaway和Marketlink管道流向美湾的输送量也会减少，从而避免库欣库存降至罐底的风险，预计本月开始库欣库存将会见底回升。

策略：谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国大幅释放原油战略储备

铜：国家持续关注大宗商品价格 留意晚间Fed议息会议

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场升贴水呈现低开高走之势，早市平水铜始报于升水350-360元/吨，市场询盘保持积极，买盘主动令低价货迅速难觅，市场报价逐渐回到升水370-380元/吨，第二时段后随着盘面的持续回调，平水铜升水再度提高至390-400元/吨，难有可压价余地。好铜在昨日有明显消化以后，昨日报价稳中持坚，与平水铜价差有再度扩大之势，早市尚可在升水480-500元/吨区间报价，第二时段后，基本稳定于升水500-520元/吨之间，部分品牌尾盘可报至升水550元/吨左右，表明持货商挺价惜售情绪。湿法铜也依旧在Nolrisk，BMK等品牌报价指引下整体报至升水270-310元/吨，货源偏紧的行情下，整体报价维持坚挺，买卖双方对价格略存分歧。

宏观方面，受供应链瓶颈和物流问题导致成本飙升，继前日美国PMI数据持续下降，欧元区10月份制造业PMI终值为58.3，为八个月以来最低水平。同时，通胀压力加大，上周官方数据显示，尽管欧元区经济在夏季继续增长，但近期疫情反弹，继续实施封锁，通胀超出了预期。欧洲央行行长拉加德上周四称，通胀将持续更长时间，但对于市场通胀压力过大，最快将在明年加息的猜测予以否认。

国内方面，国务院总理主持召开发展壮大市场主体工作座谈会，提出要健全市场监管长效机制，反对垄断和不正当竞争，打击囤积居奇、哄抬价格等，维护公平公正市场秩序。韩正副总理在国家电网召开座谈会强调，要多渠道增加电煤和天然气供给，继续抓好电煤保供稳价，大力推进煤炭清洁利用。

整体看来，国家持续管关注大宗商品价格，重点关注美联储FOMC会议。单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎偏空 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：福佳大化复工有所推迟，长丝产销仍偏弱

一、浙石化PX逐步提负，PX加工费持续低位

（1）福佳大化一条线11月中旬重启，一条线推迟至1月重启。（2）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨。11月1日，浙石化PX两条线已提升至满负荷，PX供应量逐步回升，PX加工费预期持续低位。

二、PTA开工率仍阶段性高位，PTA进入累库周期

（1）PTA开工率阶段性高位，进入累库周期后PTA加工费有压缩预期，预期或压缩至500-600附近。

三、长丝产销仍偏低

（1）周二长丝产销仅25%。

平衡表展望：PTA11-12月逐步进入累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：暂观望， PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧基本压缩到位，原油预估下跌看空间有限。（2）跨期套利：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间