Iron Ore: Market sentiment eased and iron ore rebounded in shock.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the iron ore 01 contract rebounded in shock and the closing price was 589.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of imported iron ore at ports fluctuated upward, with a cumulative increase of 5-25 yuan/ton throughout the day.

On the supply side, global iron ore shipments this week increased by 1.41 million tons from the previous month to 30.29 million tons, and the shipment volume has picked up to a certain extent. Domestic ores are expected to gradually recover due to the relaxation of power restrictions, and the overall supply side fluctuates little. On the demand side, the national crude steel output continued to remain low. At the same time, domestic steel demand has fallen sharply, and domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink. On the whole, iron ore will continue to oversupply and the imported iron ore inventory will continue to accumulate. With the recent sharp drop in ocean freight, the short-term landed cost of iron ore has decreased, and cost support is difficult to maintain. It is expected that iron ore will still open up downward space, and it is recommended to short iron ore when prices hit high levels.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Spot demand is general and basis is weaker.

On November 3, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,580 (+190) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,750 (+125) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -955 yuan/ton (-315); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 75,441 (-3,288) lots, the short position was 102,996 (+3,311) lots, and the net short position was 27,555 (-23) lots.

On November 3, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,320 (-120) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,770 (-20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,760 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,730 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -384 (-138) yuan/ton.

As of October 22: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 269,395 (+18,701) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 211,960 (+2,510) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.03 (+0.33), cup lump 58.5 (0), latex 54.5 (-0.3), RSS3 57.55 (+0.33).

As of October 21, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.49% (+1.96%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.26% (+1.74%).

Opinion: Under the influence of the market sentiment, the rubber rebounded slightly during the day session and then weakened again. At present, the main domestic contradiction is the postponement of the inflection point of the accumulated inventory of the port. Due to the continued decline in ocean freight rates since October, it is expected that domestic arrivals will gradually pick up in the later period. The market expects the inflection point of the accumulated inventory to be in the second half of this month. Thailand’s main production areas are in the peak season for rubber delivery, but there is still more rain, which makes the price of raw materials firm and supports the cost of rubber. With the support of the cost side and the low inventory of domestic ports, the downward adjustment of rubber prices is expected to be limited before the pressure of overseas supply comes.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Calls for OPEC to increase production have failed, and expectations of the United States and Japan to release strategic reserves are heating up.

Oil prices fell sharply yesterday. Judging from the EIA data, the overall situation is similar to the API announcement, and Cushing's inventory is still slightly down. We believe that this has a relatively limited negative impact on the market, and the biggest concern of the current market still comes from policy risks. That is, in the case that the United States, Japan, India and other countries have failed to repeatedly call for OPEC to increase production, the United States and Japan may jointly release strategic reserves. In addition, the IEA had previously made relevant statements in public. Expectations in this market are heating up, especially as the OPEC meeting on the 4th continues to stand still. From the fundamentals of crude oil itself, it is not particularly bearish. Although the recent epidemic in China has caused a large number of flight cancellations, as Europe and the United States relax international travel restrictions, the two will cancel each other out. In addition, the cold winter forecast for this winter has not yet fully eased, and we believe that the release of strategic reserves by the United States is still the most worrying negative factor for the market.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spread

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: The Fed taper started, and copper prices gradually stabilized after shocks.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, the inter-month spread rapidly drop from BACK350 yuan/ton to BACK500 yuan/ton, leading to a rapid decline in the premium of the spot market. In the early morning session, some holders quoted prices at a premium of 370-380 yuan/ton to test the market's buying interest, but most participants are still in the process of inquiring and lowering prices, leading to increased market volatility. The rebound after the bottom out made the inter-month spread rapidly widen to 500 yuan/ton, while the spot price was priced to a premium of 340-350 yuan/ton. At the end of the first trading session, it wasn't until some holders directly reduced their quotations to a premium of 300-320 yuan/ton that they attracted some trade buying orders, and the market's trading activity showed a slight improvement. After the second trading session, the inter-month spread has basically stabilized at back500 yuan/ton, and the spot price has also stabilized. The quotations of High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper have also been lowered along with the price of Standard-Grade Copper. The price of High-Grade Copper has dropped from a premium of around 500 yuan/ton in the morning market to 400 yuan/ton. After that, the holders were eager to exchange spot in the high-back state, so they voluntarily reduced the price to a premium of 430 yuan/ton. It is a pity that there is a lack of buying intentions. The overall price of Hydro-Copper under the quotations of NOLRISK, ESOX and other brands was quoted at a premium of 200-240 yuan/ton, which was also in a significant downward adjustment. The epidemic situation in Changzhou is fermented, and it may have a certain impact on the surrounding areas of Changzhou. Procurement in the local market is hindered, and it is difficult to obtain a certain volume of transactions.

On the macro front, the Federal Reserve announced the FOMC monetary policy decision. That is, since the implementation of Taper from the end of this month, the monthly purchase of 15 billion US dollars will be reduced, and the net purchase of new debt will be completely ended in the middle of 2022. Taper rhythm is in line with market expectations. Regarding inflation, the policy statement was changed to "Inflation is still high, mainly reflecting the'expected to be temporary' factor." Powell said after the meeting that the beginning of Taper does not mean a signal to raise interest rates. With regard to the timing of the rate hike, the Fed "can have patience" and emphasized that it is not the time to raise interest rates. Powell's statement indicated the release of dovish signals. After the Fed's resolution, the S&P Dow Index turned up, and the US dollar index, which was approaching a two-week high, plunged below 94. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once pulled up again to 1.60%.

Fundamentally, according to SMM, due to the dual control of power shortage and energy consumption, China's electrolytic copper production in October was 789,400 tons, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous month and a decrease of 3.9% from the same period last year. The domestic electrolytic copper output in November is expected to be 819,400 tons, an increase of 3.8% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. In terms of consumption, the BACK structure of the inter-month basis has expanded rapidly, and under the disturbance of the epidemic in Changzhou, several large downstream households are temporarily holding a wait-and-see attitude. This has led to a cautious wait-and-see attitude in the downstream, and Shanghai copper premiums and discounts have declined. Inventories in Guangdong are still low, the willingness of holders to ship goods is not high, and the premiums and discounts of copper in South China are rising. In terms of inventory, LME has accumulated inventory for the first time since October, and SHFE has substantially destocked.

Investors in the future can pay attention to the dot plot and economic expectations for December. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Continue to enter the accumulation inventory cycle, processing costs continue to be compressed.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical PX gradually increased its production load, and PX processing fees continued to be low.

(1) One production line of Fujia Dahua will restart in mid-November, while the other production line will be postponed to restart in January.

(2) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the PX processing fee is expected to continue to be low.

2. PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages, and PTA has entered the cycle of accumulating inventory.

(1) After entering the accumulation inventory cycle, the PTA processing fee is expected to be compressed to around 500.

3. The production and sales of filaments continued to be low.

(1) On Wednesday, the production and sales of filaments were only 20%.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side, and crude oil forecasts have limited room for decline.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：市场情绪缓和，铁矿震荡反弹

逻辑和观点：

昨日铁矿01合约震荡反弹，收盘价为589.5元/吨，环比下跌2.5元/吨，进口铁矿港口现货价格震荡上行，全天累计上涨5-25元/吨。

供应端，本周全球铁矿发运环比增加141万吨至3029万吨，发运量有一定回升，国内矿有望因限电放松逐步恢复，供给端整体波动不大。需求端，全国粗钢产量继续维持低位，同时国内钢材需求大幅下滑，国内铁矿消费将进一步萎缩。整体来看，铁矿将延续供过于求的格局，进口铁矿库存将持续累积。随着近期海运费大幅回落，短期铁矿的到岸成本降低，成本支撑难以维持。预计铁矿仍将向下空间将打开，建议逢高做空铁矿。

策略：

单边：中期看空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：现货需求一般，基差走弱

3号，RU主力收盘14580（+190）元/吨，混合胶报价12750元/吨（+125），主力合约基差-955元/吨（-315）；前二十主力多头持仓75441（-3288），空头持仓102996（3311），净空持仓27555（-23）。

3号，NR主力收盘价11320（-120）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1770（-20）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1760美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1730（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-384（-138）元/吨。

截至10月29日：交易所总库存285213（+15818），交易所仓单220320（+8360）。

原料：生胶片53.03（+0.33），杯胶58.5（0），胶水54.5（-0.3），烟片57.55（+0.33）。

截止10月28日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.43%（-2.06%），国内半钢胎开工率为54.87%(-1.39%）。

观点：市场氛围影响下，昨天橡胶白天盘面小幅反弹后重新走弱。目前国内的主要矛盾还是在港口库存的累库拐点推迟，因10月以来的海运费持续下降，预计后期国内到港量将逐步回升，市场预计累库拐点在本月下旬。泰国主产区正处于割胶旺季，但雨水仍较多，使得原料价格坚挺，对于橡胶的成本支撑较强。成本端的支撑叠加国内港口库存偏低，海外供应压力没有到来之前，预计胶价向下调整空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：呼吁欧佩克增产无果，美日释放战略储备预期升温

昨日油价跌幅较大，从EIA数据来看，整体情况与API公布类似，且库欣库存仍小幅下降，我们认为这对于市场的利空的影响相对有限，我们认为当前市场最大的担忧仍旧来自政策风险，即在美国、日本、印度等国家多次呼吁欧佩克增产无果的情况下，美日可能会联手释放战略储备，此外，IEA之前也在公开场合有相关表态，这一市场预期在升温，尤其是在4号欧佩克会议继续按兵不动的情况下，而从原油自身基本面上看，并无特别显著利空，虽然近期中国疫情导致大量航班取消，但随着欧美放松国际旅行限制，两者将会相互抵消，此外，今年冬季的冷冬预期仍未彻底缓和，我们认为美国释放战略储备仍旧是市场最为担忧的利空。

策略：谨慎偏多，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国大幅释放原油战略储备

铜：美联储taper开启 铜价震荡后逐渐企稳

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日因隔月基差从BACK350元/吨迅速扩大至BACK500元/吨左右，令现货市场的升水快速下滑。早市盘初部分持货商还报在升水370-380元/吨试探市场买兴，大部分参与者还处于询价压价中，盘面震荡波幅加剧，探低回升令隔月价差的快速扩大至500元/吨，现货在升水340-350元/吨做挣扎，第一时段末，部分持货商直接降至升水300-320元/吨，才吸引到部分贸易买盘，市场交投活跃度才略显好转，第二时段后，月差基本稳定于back500元/吨。现货报价也趋于稳定。好铜和湿法铜报价也跟随平水铜一路下调，好铜从早市升水500元/吨左右报价一路调至升水400元/吨，-P持货商急于逢高back状态换现，主动降价至升水430元/吨，可惜成交买意缺乏。湿法铜则在NOLRISK，ESOX等品牌报价下整体报至升水200-240元/吨，也是处于明显下调中，常州地区疫情有发酵，或将对常州地区周边都有一定影响，市场采购受阻，难有一定成交量。

宏观方面，美联储公布了FOMC货币政策决议，从本月下旬开启Taper，每月减购150亿美元，将于2022年中旬彻底结束净购新债，Taper节奏符合市场预期。关于通胀，政策声明中改称“通胀仍然高企，主要反映了‘预计是暂时性’的因素”。鲍威尔会后表示，开始Taper不意味着发出加息信号，在加息时间方面联储“可以有耐心”，并强调现在还不是加息的时候。鲍威尔表态释放鸽派信号，美联储决议后标普道指转涨，逼近逾两周高位的美元指数跳水跌破94，10年期美债收益率盘中拉升一度重上1.60%。

基本面看，据SMM，受缺电及能耗双控的影响，10月中国电解铜产量为78.94万吨，环比降低1.7%，同比降低3.9%。预计11月国内电解铜产量为81.94万吨，环比增长3.8%，同比减少0.3%。消费方面，隔月基差BACK结构快速扩大，外加常州地区疫情扰动下，几家下游大户暂时驻足，下游纷纷呈现谨慎观望的态度，沪铜升贴水下降。广东地区库存仍处低位，持货商出货意愿不高，华南铜升贴水上升。库存方面，LME自10月起首次累库，SHFE大幅去库。进口方面，进口比价小幅转暖，LME0-3升贴水仍处高位，目前为275美元/吨，买方多保持观望状态，整体成交清淡。

未来关注12月的点阵图和经济预期。单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：持续进入累库周期，加工费继续压缩

一、浙石化PX逐步提负，PX加工费持续低位

（1）福佳大化一条线11月中旬重启，一条线推迟至1月重启。（2）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨。11月1日，浙石化PX两条线已提升至满负荷，PX供应量逐步回升，PX加工费预期持续低位。

二、PTA开工率仍阶段性高位，PTA进入累库周期

（1）PTA开工率阶段性高位，PTA加工费如预期压缩至500一线。

三、长丝产销持续低位

（1）周三长丝产销仅20%。

平衡表展望：PTA11-12月逐步进入累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：暂观望， PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧基本压缩到位，原油预估下跌看空间有限。（2）跨期套利：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间