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Daily morning for Crude oil, PTA, natural rubber, iron ore, copper Iro (ZH & EN) 2021.11.4

Fang submitted 2021-11-04 10:16:39

Iron Ore: Market sentiment eased and iron ore rebounded in shock.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the iron ore 01 contract rebounded in shock and the closing price was 589.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of imported iron ore at ports fluctuated upward, with a cumulative increase of 5-25 yuan/ton throughout the day.

On the supply side, global iron ore shipments this week increased by 1.41 million tons from the previous month to 30.29 million tons, and the shipment volume has picked up to a certain extent. Domestic ores are expected to gradually recover due to the relaxation of power restrictions, and the overall supply side fluctuates little. On the demand side, the national crude steel output continued to remain low. At the same time, domestic steel demand has fallen sharply, and domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink. On the whole, iron ore will continue to oversupply and the imported iron ore inventory will continue to accumulate. With the recent sharp drop in ocean freight, the short-term landed cost of iron ore has decreased, and cost support is difficult to maintain. It is expected that iron ore will still open up downward space, and it is recommended to short iron ore when prices hit high levels.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Spot demand is general and basis is weaker.

On November 3, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,580 (+190) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,750 (+125) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -955 yuan/ton (-315); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 75,441 (-3,288) lots, the short position was 102,996 (+3,311) lots, and the net short position was 27,555 (-23) lots.

On November 3, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,320 (-120) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,770 (-20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,760 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,730 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -384 (-138) yuan/ton.

As of October 22: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 269,395 (+18,701) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 211,960 (+2,510) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.03 (+0.33), cup lump 58.5 (0), latex 54.5 (-0.3), RSS3 57.55 (+0.33).

As of October 21, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.49% (+1.96%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.26% (+1.74%).

Opinion: Under the influence of the market sentiment, the rubber rebounded slightly during the day session and then weakened again. At present, the main domestic contradiction is the postponement of the inflection point of the accumulated inventory of the port. Due to the continued decline in ocean freight rates since October, it is expected that domestic arrivals will gradually pick up in the later period. The market expects the inflection point of the accumulated inventory to be in the second half of this month. Thailand’s main production areas are in the peak season for rubber delivery, but there is still more rain, which makes the price of raw materials firm and supports the cost of rubber. With the support of the cost side and the low inventory of domestic ports, the downward adjustment of rubber prices is expected to be limited before the pressure of overseas supply comes.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Calls for OPEC to increase production have failed, and expectations of the United States and Japan to release strategic reserves are heating up.

Oil prices fell sharply yesterday. Judging from the EIA data, the overall situation is similar to the API announcement, and Cushing's inventory is still slightly down. We believe that this has a relatively limited negative impact on the market, and the biggest concern of the current market still comes from policy risks. That is, in the case that the United States, Japan, India and other countries have failed to repeatedly call for OPEC to increase production, the United States and Japan may jointly release strategic reserves. In addition, the IEA had previously made relevant statements in public. Expectations in this market are heating up, especially as the OPEC meeting on the 4th continues to stand still. From the fundamentals of crude oil itself, it is not particularly bearish. Although the recent epidemic in China has caused a large number of flight cancellations, as Europe and the United States relax international travel restrictions, the two will cancel each other out. In addition, the cold winter forecast for this winter has not yet fully eased, and we believe that the release of strategic reserves by the United States is still the most worrying negative factor for the market.

Strategy: Unilaterally cautiously bullish, go long of U.S. distillate oil crack spread

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: The Fed taper started, and copper prices gradually stabilized after shocks.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, the inter-month spread rapidly drop from BACK350 yuan/ton to BACK500 yuan/ton, leading to a rapid decline in the premium of the spot market. In the early morning session, some holders quoted prices at a premium of 370-380 yuan/ton to test the market's buying interest, but most participants are still in the process of inquiring and lowering prices, leading to increased market volatility. The rebound after the bottom out made the inter-month spread rapidly widen to 500 yuan/ton, while the spot price was priced to a premium of 340-350 yuan/ton. At the end of the first trading session, it wasn't until some holders directly reduced their quotations to a premium of 300-320 yuan/ton that they attracted some trade buying orders, and the market's trading activity showed a slight improvement. After the second trading session, the inter-month spread has basically stabilized at back500 yuan/ton, and the spot price has also stabilized. The quotations of High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper have also been lowered along with the price of Standard-Grade Copper. The price of High-Grade Copper has dropped from a premium of around 500 yuan/ton in the morning market to 400 yuan/ton. After that, the holders were eager to exchange spot in the high-back state, so they voluntarily reduced the price to a premium of 430 yuan/ton. It is a pity that there is a lack of buying intentions. The overall price of Hydro-Copper under the quotations of NOLRISK, ESOX and other brands was quoted at a premium of 200-240 yuan/ton, which was also in a significant downward adjustment. The epidemic situation in Changzhou is fermented, and it may have a certain impact on the surrounding areas of Changzhou. Procurement in the local market is hindered, and it is difficult to obtain a certain volume of transactions.

On the macro front, the Federal Reserve announced the FOMC monetary policy decision. That is, since the implementation of Taper from the end of this month, the monthly purchase of 15 billion US dollars will be reduced, and the net purchase of new debt will be completely ended in the middle of 2022. Taper rhythm is in line with market expectations. Regarding inflation, the policy statement was changed to "Inflation is still high, mainly reflecting the'expected to be temporary' factor." Powell said after the meeting that the beginning of Taper does not mean a signal to raise interest rates. With regard to the timing of the rate hike, the Fed "can have patience" and emphasized that it is not the time to raise interest rates. Powell's statement indicated the release of dovish signals. After the Fed's resolution, the S&P Dow Index turned up, and the US dollar index, which was approaching a two-week high, plunged below 94. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once pulled up again to 1.60%.

Fundamentally, according to SMM, due to the dual control of power shortage and energy consumption, China's electrolytic copper production in October was 789,400 tons, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous month and a decrease of 3.9% from the same period last year. The domestic electrolytic copper output in November is expected to be 819,400 tons, an increase of 3.8% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. In terms of consumption, the BACK structure of the inter-month basis has expanded rapidly, and under the disturbance of the epidemic in Changzhou, several large downstream households are temporarily holding a wait-and-see attitude. This has led to a cautious wait-and-see attitude in the downstream, and Shanghai copper premiums and discounts have declined. Inventories in Guangdong are still low, the willingness of holders to ship goods is not high, and the premiums and discounts of copper in South China are rising. In terms of inventory, LME has accumulated inventory for the first time since October, and SHFE has substantially destocked.

Investors in the future can pay attention to the dot plot and economic expectations for December. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.


1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Continue to enter the accumulation inventory cycle, processing costs continue to be compressed.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical PX gradually increased its production load, and PX processing fees continued to be low.

(1) One production line of Fujia Dahua will restart in mid-November, while the other production line will be postponed to restart in January.

(2) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the PX processing fee is expected to continue to be low.

2. PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages, and PTA has entered the cycle of accumulating inventory.

(1) After entering the accumulation inventory cycle, the PTA processing fee is expected to be compressed to around 500.

3. The production and sales of filaments continued to be low.

(1) On Wednesday, the production and sales of filaments were only 20%.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side, and crude oil forecasts have limited room for decline.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.


























铜:美联储taper开启 铜价震荡后逐渐企稳






1. 单边:中性 2. 跨市:暂缓 3. 跨期:暂缓;4. 期权:暂缓


1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧









策略建议:(1)单边:暂观望, PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期,PX加工费左侧基本压缩到位,原油预估下跌看空间有限。(2)跨期套利:1-5价差反套。


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