Iron Ore: The demand for steel has fallen, and the iron ore is currently operating in shocks.
Logic and perspective:
Yesterday, the iron ore 01 contract rebounded in shock and the closing price was 582.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of imported iron ore at ports fluctuated upward, with a cumulative increase of 0-5 yuan/ton throughout the day.
On the supply side, global iron ore shipments this week increased by 1.41 million tons from the previous month to 30.29 million tons, and the shipment volume has picked up to a certain extent. Domestic ores are expected to gradually recover due to the relaxation of power restrictions, and the overall supply side fluctuates little. On the demand side, the national crude steel output continued to remain low. At the same time, domestic steel demand has fallen sharply, and domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink. On the whole, iron ore will continue to oversupply and the imported iron ore inventory will continue to accumulate. With the recent sharp drop in ocean freight, the short-term landed cost of iron ore has decreased, and cost support is difficult to maintain. It is expected that iron ore will still open up downward space, and it is recommended to short iron ore when prices hit high levels.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.
2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.
Rubber: The increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the market.
On November 4, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,875 (-705) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,375 (-375) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -525 yuan/ton (+430); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 78,108 (+2,667) lots, the short position was 108,552 (+5,556) lots, and the net short position was 30,444 (+2,889) lots.
On November 4, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,320 (-120) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,730 (-40) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,710 (-50) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,705 (-25) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -38 (+347) yuan/ton.
As of October 29: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 285,213 (+15,818) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 220,320 (+8,360) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.75 (-0.28), cup lump 48.25 (-0.25), latex 54.2 (-0.3), RSS3 56.65 (-0.9).
As of October 28, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.43% (-2.06%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 54.87% (-1.39%).
Opinion: Due to the continued decline in ocean freight, domestic arrivals will gradually recover in the later period, and it is expected that later this month will be expected to usher in a turning point in port inventory. Under the pressure of the current bearish macro atmosphere, the price of rubber was weak, and the market fell sharply yesterday. At present, the main producing areas of Thailand still have rain in the peak season, which affects the progress of rubber delivery. The price of raw materials in production areas has been at a relatively high level, and the cost support for rubber is still strong. It is expected that there is limited room for adjustment below the rubber price. In the medium term, the domestic market is about to enter a cut-off. If port transportation cannot be alleviated, the domestic supply shortage will be difficult to alleviate, or the extent of domestic inventory accumulation in the later period will be smaller than in previous years. Therefore, focus on changes on the supply side. Investors need to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: OPEC stands still, and expectations for the United States to release war reserves are heating up.
Oil prices fluctuated violently yesterday. Although oil prices rose for a while after the results of the OPEC meeting came out, they then fell. The market's overall understanding is that the appeals of the United States, Japan, India and other countries to OPEC continue to fail. Moreover, political efforts have basically failed, which has led to an unprecedented consensus within OPEC on the strategy of not increasing production. At present, the United States only has two cards to play: releasing its strategic reserves and speeding up Iran’s nuclear negotiations. Although oil prices have recently recovered from high levels, as far as US inflation is concerned, the fact that gasoline prices are still above US$3 per gallon means that inflationary pressures are still relatively high. Therefore, the market's understanding of the results of the OPEC meeting yesterday was bearish, that is, it is more likely to trigger the US to release its strategic reserves.
Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread
Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.
Copper: The quotation of premiums and discounts has fallen, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is still heavy.
Spot: According to SMM, the spot market's premiums and discounts fell slightly yesterday. Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 300 yuan/ton in the morning session, but the buying sentiment in the market was insipid. Although holders adjusted their quotations to a premium of 250-260 yuan/ton, there were still few transactions. During the second trading session, some holders again voluntarily adjusted their quotations to a premium of 230-240 yuan/ton, but the market basis was too large and buying interest was low, resulting in low market activity. However, the holders were unwilling to adjust prices sharply again, making the market stalemate. Although the adjustment range of Standard-Grade Copper in the market was limited, due to the inflow of imports and limited market favor of High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper, their overall price adjustment range was significantly higher than that of Standard-Grade Copper. Part of the High-Grade Copper was even hard to see a significant spread with Standard-Grade Copper. Under the drag of CCC-P and ENM and other imported sources, the price of High-Grade Copper were adjusted from a premium of 400 yuan/ton to a premium of 280 yuan/ton, which made the market transactions improved. Although the quotations of domestically produced High-Grade Copper wer strong, they had also rarely seen a large amount of trading. Due to the epidemic in Changzhou, which radiated the surrounding areas, logistics, etc. were all affected. Market demand for Hydro-Copper has weakened, and holders reduced the premium and discount to 20 yuan/ton, and there were still few transactions. Downstream is still cautious and taking a wait-and-see attitude.
On the macro front, the Bank of England announced an interest rate decision yesterday, keeping the market interest rate unchanged at 0.1%. The total size of the Bank of England’s November asset purchases remained unchanged at 895 billion pounds. But before this, the market generally expected that the Bank of England would reduce purchases and even raise interest rates during this interest rate meeting. As a result, the pound fell sharply yesterday, and this caused the dollar to rise again. However, from the perspective of U.S. Treasury yields, there was a substantial weakness yesterday. It can be seen that the long-term U.S. Treasury yields have not maintained a trend of rising further after the Fed announced the taper's specific plan.
On the whole, the view that copper prices are relatively neutral is currently maintained.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: Continued high operating rate to reduce processing costs, and polyester price cuts for promotion.
1. Zhejiang Petrochemical PX gradually increased its production load, and PX processing fees continued to be low.
(1) One production line of Fujia Dahua will restart in mid-November, while the other production line will be postponed to restart in January.
(2) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the subsequent third production line is expected to increase the load, and the PX processing fee has been reduced to a low level on the left.
2. PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages, and PTA has entered the cycle of accumulating inventory.
(1) After entering the accumulation inventory cycle, the PTA processing fee is expected to be compressed to around 500.
3. The price of filaments is currently reduced for promotion.
(1) The price of filament has been reduced for promotion, and the production and sales have risen to 95%.
Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.
(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side, and crude oil forecasts have limited room for decline.
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
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