Iron Ore: The demand for steel has fallen, and the iron ore is currently operating in shocks.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the iron ore 01 contract rebounded in shock and the closing price was 582.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of imported iron ore at ports fluctuated upward, with a cumulative increase of 0-5 yuan/ton throughout the day.

On the supply side, global iron ore shipments this week increased by 1.41 million tons from the previous month to 30.29 million tons, and the shipment volume has picked up to a certain extent. Domestic ores are expected to gradually recover due to the relaxation of power restrictions, and the overall supply side fluctuates little. On the demand side, the national crude steel output continued to remain low. At the same time, domestic steel demand has fallen sharply, and domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink. On the whole, iron ore will continue to oversupply and the imported iron ore inventory will continue to accumulate. With the recent sharp drop in ocean freight, the short-term landed cost of iron ore has decreased, and cost support is difficult to maintain. It is expected that iron ore will still open up downward space, and it is recommended to short iron ore when prices hit high levels.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the market.

On November 4, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,875 (-705) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,375 (-375) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -525 yuan/ton (+430); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 78,108 (+2,667) lots, the short position was 108,552 (+5,556) lots, and the net short position was 30,444 (+2,889) lots.

On November 4, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,320 (-120) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,730 (-40) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,710 (-50) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,705 (-25) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -38 (+347) yuan/ton.

As of October 29: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 285,213 (+15,818) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 220,320 (+8,360) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.75 (-0.28), cup lump 48.25 (-0.25), latex 54.2 (-0.3), RSS3 56.65 (-0.9).

As of October 28, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.43% (-2.06%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 54.87% (-1.39%).

Opinion: Due to the continued decline in ocean freight, domestic arrivals will gradually recover in the later period, and it is expected that later this month will be expected to usher in a turning point in port inventory. Under the pressure of the current bearish macro atmosphere, the price of rubber was weak, and the market fell sharply yesterday. At present, the main producing areas of Thailand still have rain in the peak season, which affects the progress of rubber delivery. The price of raw materials in production areas has been at a relatively high level, and the cost support for rubber is still strong. It is expected that there is limited room for adjustment below the rubber price. In the medium term, the domestic market is about to enter a cut-off. If port transportation cannot be alleviated, the domestic supply shortage will be difficult to alleviate, or the extent of domestic inventory accumulation in the later period will be smaller than in previous years. Therefore, focus on changes on the supply side. Investors need to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: OPEC stands still, and expectations for the United States to release war reserves are heating up.

Oil prices fluctuated violently yesterday. Although oil prices rose for a while after the results of the OPEC meeting came out, they then fell. The market's overall understanding is that the appeals of the United States, Japan, India and other countries to OPEC continue to fail. Moreover, political efforts have basically failed, which has led to an unprecedented consensus within OPEC on the strategy of not increasing production. At present, the United States only has two cards to play: releasing its strategic reserves and speeding up Iran’s nuclear negotiations. Although oil prices have recently recovered from high levels, as far as US inflation is concerned, the fact that gasoline prices are still above US$3 per gallon means that inflationary pressures are still relatively high. Therefore, the market's understanding of the results of the OPEC meeting yesterday was bearish, that is, it is more likely to trigger the US to release its strategic reserves.

Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: The quotation of premiums and discounts has fallen, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is still heavy.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market's premiums and discounts fell slightly yesterday. Standard-Grade Copper was initially quoted at a premium of 300 yuan/ton in the morning session, but the buying sentiment in the market was insipid. Although holders adjusted their quotations to a premium of 250-260 yuan/ton, there were still few transactions. During the second trading session, some holders again voluntarily adjusted their quotations to a premium of 230-240 yuan/ton, but the market basis was too large and buying interest was low, resulting in low market activity. However, the holders were unwilling to adjust prices sharply again, making the market stalemate. Although the adjustment range of Standard-Grade Copper in the market was limited, due to the inflow of imports and limited market favor of High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper, their overall price adjustment range was significantly higher than that of Standard-Grade Copper. Part of the High-Grade Copper was even hard to see a significant spread with Standard-Grade Copper. Under the drag of CCC-P and ENM and other imported sources, the price of High-Grade Copper were adjusted from a premium of 400 yuan/ton to a premium of 280 yuan/ton, which made the market transactions improved. Although the quotations of domestically produced High-Grade Copper wer strong, they had also rarely seen a large amount of trading. Due to the epidemic in Changzhou, which radiated the surrounding areas, logistics, etc. were all affected. Market demand for Hydro-Copper has weakened, and holders reduced the premium and discount to 20 yuan/ton, and there were still few transactions. Downstream is still cautious and taking a wait-and-see attitude.

View:

On the macro front, the Bank of England announced an interest rate decision yesterday, keeping the market interest rate unchanged at 0.1%. The total size of the Bank of England’s November asset purchases remained unchanged at 895 billion pounds. But before this, the market generally expected that the Bank of England would reduce purchases and even raise interest rates during this interest rate meeting. As a result, the pound fell sharply yesterday, and this caused the dollar to rise again. However, from the perspective of U.S. Treasury yields, there was a substantial weakness yesterday. It can be seen that the long-term U.S. Treasury yields have not maintained a trend of rising further after the Fed announced the taper's specific plan.

On the whole, the view that copper prices are relatively neutral is currently maintained.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Continued high operating rate to reduce processing costs, and polyester price cuts for promotion.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical PX gradually increased its production load, and PX processing fees continued to be low.

(1) One production line of Fujia Dahua will restart in mid-November, while the other production line will be postponed to restart in January.

(2) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the subsequent third production line is expected to increase the load, and the PX processing fee has been reduced to a low level on the left.

2. PTA operating rate is at a high level in stages, and PTA has entered the cycle of accumulating inventory.

(1) After entering the accumulation inventory cycle, the PTA processing fee is expected to be compressed to around 500.

3. The price of filaments is currently reduced for promotion.

(1) The price of filament has been reduced for promotion, and the production and sales have risen to 95%.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. The PTA processing fee is too high and there are expectations of shrinking; the PX processing fee is underestimated on the left side, and crude oil forecasts have limited room for decline.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：钢材需求下降，铁矿震荡运行

逻辑和观点：

昨日铁矿01合约震荡反弹，收盘价为582.5元/吨，环比上涨2元/吨，进口铁矿港口现货价格小幅上行，全天累计上涨0-5元/吨。

供应端，本周全球铁矿发运环比增加141万吨至3029万吨，发运量有一定回升，供给端整体波动不大。需求端，全国粗钢产量继续维持低位，同时国内钢材需求大幅下滑，国内铁矿消费将进一步萎缩。整体来看，铁矿将延续供过于求的格局，进口铁矿库存将持续累积。随着海运费大幅回落，铁矿到岸成本降低，成本支撑难以维持。预计铁矿向下空间将打开，建议逢高做空铁矿。

策略：

单边：中期看空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：仓单增加，盘面承压

4号，RU主力收盘13875（-705）元/吨，混合胶报价12375元/吨（-375），主力合约基差-525元/吨（+430）；前二十主力多头持仓78108（+2667），空头持仓108552（+5556），净空持仓30444（+2889）。

4号，NR主力收盘价11320（-120）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1730（-40）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1710美元/吨（-50），印尼标胶1705（-25）美元/吨。主力合约基差-38（+347）元/吨。

截至10月29日：交易所总库存285213（+15818），交易所仓单220320（+8360）。

原料：生胶片52.75（-0.28），杯胶48.25（-0.25），胶水54.2（-0.3），烟片56.65（-0.9）。

截止10月28日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.43%（-2.06%），国内半钢胎开工率为54.87%(-1.39%）。

观点：因海运费的持续下降，后期国内到港量将逐步恢复，预计本月下旬将有望迎来港口库存拐点，在当下宏观氛围偏空打压下，胶价偏弱运行，昨天盘面明显下挫。目前泰国主产区因旺季仍有降雨，影响割胶进度，产区的原料价格一直处于较高水平，对于橡胶的成本支撑仍较强，预计下方调整的空间有限。中线来看，国内即将进入停割，如果港口运输还不能缓解，则国内供应紧张的局面将难以缓解，或使得后期国内累库幅度较往年小，因此，重点关注供应端的变化。短期暂时观望。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求示弱等。

原油：欧佩克按兵不动，美国释放战储预期升温

昨日油价剧烈波动，虽然在欧佩克会议结果出炉之后，油价一度上涨，但随后出现下跌，市场总体的理解为，美日印等国对欧佩克的呼吁继续无果，政治上的努力基本失败，反而导致欧佩克内部对于不额外增产这一策略空前一致，目前美国只剩下释放战略储备以及加快伊朗核谈判这两张牌可以打，虽然近期油价高位回调，但对于美国通胀而言，汽油价格仍在3美元/加仑以上就意味着通胀压力仍旧较大，因此昨日市场对于欧佩克会议结果的理解为利空，即更加容易引发美国释放战略储备。

策略：中性，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：美国大幅释放原油战略储备

铜：升贴水报价走低 下游观望情绪仍较重

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场升贴水再度呈现小幅回落状，早市平水铜始报于升水300元/吨，但市场买盘情绪寥寥，持货商纷纷调价至升水250-260元/吨依旧难闻成交，第二时段前后部分持货商再度主动调价至升水230-240元/吨，但无奈盘面基差过大，买兴甚微，市场交投活跃度较低，但持货商也不愿再度大幅调价，市场呈现僵持之势。虽然市场平水铜调幅度有限，但好铜和湿法铜则由于进口的流入，以及市场有限的青睐度整体调价幅度明显高于平水铜，部分好铜和平水铜甚至已难见明显价差，好铜在CCC-P以及ENM等进口货源的拖累下，从升水400元/吨一路调至升水280元/吨，市场成交才有所好转，国产好铜报价虽然表现坚挺，但也同样难闻大量交投。由于常州地区疫情从而辐射周边地区物流等均受到影响，市场对湿法铜需求减弱，持货商一路调降升贴水至升水20元/吨依旧难闻成交，11点后甚至听闻部分平水货源流出，下游依旧呈谨慎观望态度。

观点：

宏观方面，昨日英国央行公布利率决议，维持市场利率0.1%不变。英国央行11月资产购买总规模维持8950亿英镑不变。但是此前，市场则是普遍预计此次议息会议英国央行将会采取缩减购置甚至加息的预期。故此昨日英镑录得大跌，而这使得美元再度出现上涨。不过就美债收益率角度而言，昨日则是出现了大幅走弱。可以看到在美联储公布taper具体规划后长端美债收益率并未维持进一步走高的态势。

整体而言，目前维持对于铜价相对中性的观点。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：持续高开工压缩加工费，聚酯降价促销

一、浙石化PX逐步提负，PX加工费持续低位

（1）福佳大化一条线11月中旬重启，一条线推迟至1月重启。（2）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨。11月1日，浙石化PX两条线已提升至满负荷，PX供应量逐步回升，后续第三条线亦有提负预期，PX加工费已左侧压至低位。

二、PTA开工率仍阶段性高位，PTA进入累库周期

（1）PTA开工率阶段性高位，PTA加工费如预期压缩至500一线。

三、长丝降价促销

（1）长丝降价促销，产销回升至95%。

平衡表展望：PTA11-12月逐步进入累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：暂观望， PTA加工费偏高有回缩预期，PX加工费左侧基本压缩到位，原油预估下跌看空间有限。（2）跨期套利：1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间