Iron Ore: Steel consumption continues to be weak, and the iron ore period is now easy to fall but hard to rise.
Last week, steel consumption continued to be weak, and the maintenance of several blast furnaces affected iron ore demand. After the iron ore futures hit their limits at the beginning of last week, futures and spot prices continued to weaken. As of the close of last Friday, the Iron Ore 01 contract closed at 560.5 points, down 77 points on a week-on-week basis. In terms of spot, the lowest price of PB fines in China's four main ports was 673 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton on a weekly basis; SSF 380 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. In terms of basis, both futures and spot prices fell. As of the close of last Friday, the basis of the 01 contract corresponding to PB fines reported 191 points, which contracted by 33 points on a weekly basis. The basis of the 01 contract corresponding to SSF reported 14 points, which increased by 33points on a weekly basis. The 62% U.S. dollar index was 92.75 US dollars, a week-on-week drop of 14 US dollars.
In terms of supply, according to Mysteel's statistics, global shipments totaled 30.29 million tons, an increase of 1.41 million tons on a weekly basis, of which 18.284 million tons were shipped from Australia, an increase of 2.261 million tons on a weekly basis. Brazil shipped 5.677 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.282 million tons. Non-mainstream shipments amounted to 6.327 million tons, an increase of 431,000 tons on a weekly basis.
In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 70.90%, a decrease of 4.00% from last week and a decrease of 15.56% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 76.43%, a decrease of 2.40% from the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.84%; The profit rate of steel mills was 71.86%, a decrease of 9.52% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 19.05%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.0489 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 64,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 407,100 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 163 steel mills was 48.48%, down 3.59% month-on-month, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.31%, down 3.47% month-on-month. The utilization rate excluding eliminated capacity was 62.39%, down 21.49% from the same period last year. The profit rate of steel mills was 61.96%, a decrease of 7.98% from the previous month.
In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports nationwide was 14,703.83, an increase of 211.88 month-on-month; the average daily port congestion volume reported 283.79 decreased by 5.6. In terms of weight, Australian ore 7056.82 increased by 126.4, Brazilian ore increased by 121.67 to 4977, trade ore 8695.30 increased by 126.8, pellets 402.26 increased by 9.35, refined powder 1108.85 increased by 64.72, lump ore 2428.11 increased by 97.99, and coarse powder 10764.61 increased by 39.82; the number of ships in port 178 decreased by 12. (Unit: 10,000 tons)
On the whole, the global iron ore shipments have picked up, mainly due to the increase in Australian shipments, but the sharp drop in the US dollar price restrained the supply of some non-mainstream iron ore, and the total supply fluctuated little. National crude steel output remains low, coupled with a sharp decline in domestic steel demand, domestic iron ore consumption will further shrink. Therefore, the oversupply pattern of iron ore will continue, and the stock of imported iron ore will continue to accumulate. With the sharp drop in ocean freight rates, the landed cost of iron ore has decreased, and cost support is difficult to maintain. The price of iron ore is expected to fall easily but hard to rise.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. Favorable macro policy
2. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.
3. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.
Rubber: The arrival volume at ports is expected to increase, and short-term rubber prices are under pressure.
Rubber futures prices continued to be under pressure last week. On the one hand, it was dragged down by the overall weak market atmosphere. In addition, from the perspective of its own supply and demand, based on the recent continuous sharp decline in ocean freight rates, the market is expected to rebound in the later domestic arrivals, and the accumulation of inventory is expected to pressure market prices.
The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of October 22 was 269,395 tons (+18701), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 211,960 tons (+2510). The domestic peak season has caused production to continue to rebound, and the continued increase in warehouse receipts last week has also brought market pressure. As of October 31, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, but the decline has slowed down. Based on the continued decline in ocean freight, the inflection point of accumulated inventory is expected to come soon.
In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of November 4, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 61% (+2.57%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 56.48% (+1.61%). The operating rate has rebounded slightly recently, but due to the domestic economic downturn, the rebound has been relatively small and has remained at a low level year-on-year.
Opinion: The logic of recent rubber prices is mainly on the supply side. Last week, due to the continuous increase in domestic warehouse receipts and the continued decline in ocean freight, the market expected the increase in domestic arrivals in the later period, and the inflection point of domestic port inventory accumulation will come soon. The price is under pressure due to the increase in the supply side, and the lower part of RU will rely on the cost of domestic raw material warehouse receipts. According to the current price of Yunnan latex, it is about 13,500 yuan/ton. Taking into account that the price of raw materials will continue to fall, but because the main production areas in Yunnan will stop delivery in the second half of this month, it is expected that there is not much room for raw materials to move downward. If the price of raw materials moves down to 12,000 yuan/ton, the market price would be 13,000 yuan/ton. Combined with the current weak domestic demand, it is expected that the short-term market prices will remain weak, but the space below is limited, and short-term operations are recommended.
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: OPEC maintains its original plan to increase production, and the release of US strategic reserves is expected to increase.
The results of the OPEC meeting last week continued to remain unchanged, maintaining the original planned increase of 400,000 barrels per day, which is consistent with previous market expectations and the statements made by the oil ministers of various countries before the meeting. OPEC ignored the demands of major crude oil consumers such as the United States, Japan, and India to increase production, leading to increased market expectations for the United States and Japan to jointly release strategic reserves. We believe that we need to pay attention to whether the US will truly release its strategic reserves. According to relevant US laws, the release of strategic reserves is a means to deal with the interruption of oil supply, not a means of price control. It can only be released temporarily when the supply is interrupted, and the single dumping of reserves cannot exceed 30 million barrels. Therefore, the United States claims that if OPEC does not increase production, it will release its strategic reserves. It cannot be ruled out that it is a strategy to depress oil prices, or that it wants to force OPEC to increase production through political pressure. However, in terms of actual effects, it did not have much impact on OPEC’s strategy to increase production, but instead led to unprecedented unity within OPEC member states. From the perspective of strategic crude oil reserves, with the exception of the United States, other major consumer countries have partially released their strategic crude oil reserves this year. Among them, China released about 20 million barrels of SPR, India announced the release of 8 million barrels of SPR, Japan released 4.2 million barrels, and South Korea released 20 million barrels. The impact of the release of these SPRs has already been reflected in oil prices. If the United States is unable to SPR in the future, it is expected that prices will rebound to more than US$80/barrel. From the perspective of the United States itself, inflationary pressures in the United States are high, and the CPI has exceeded 4%. However, due to the impact of the high base last year, inflation pressures are expected to ease slightly in the coming January to February. At present, some institutions predict that when Brent oil is below US$85/barrel, the probability of the US releasing strategy is low. In addition, oil prices have multiple effects on the US economy. Although high oil prices have led to increased inflationary pressures in the United States, the current US crude oil and refined oil net exports are already below 1 million barrels per day, so rising oil prices will not lead to a significant increase in US oil trade spending. If the United States cannot release its strategic reserves as scheduled in the future, oil prices will rebound again, and at the same time return from policy influence to its own fundamental logic.
Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread （Gasoil-Brent）
Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.
Copper: The Fed's Taper is implemented, and copper prices continue to fluctuate.
According to SMM, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of November 5th ran at RMB 70,230/ton and RMB 71,260/ton, showing a weekly volatile trend. The average premium and discount quotation of Standard-Grade Copper runs from a discount of 35 yuan/ton to a premium of 375 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend in the middle of the week. Copper prices fluctuated last week, and the Shanghai Copper 12 contract was operating at a minimum of 68,770 yuan per ton and dropped to a minimum of 71,470 yuan/ton. Friday night closed at 70,170 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 30 yuan/ton.
On the macro level, the OPEC+ oil-producing countries alliance adhered to the original plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in December. At the same time, according to Bloomberg news, Saudi Arabia set the price of its main Arabian light crude oil at a premium of US$2.70 per barrel in December, higher than November’s US$1.30, exceeding market expectations. The Bank of England’s interest rate decision was announced, maintaining the key interest rate and quantitative easing targets unchanged. The Bank of England accidentally released a pigeon, which greatly reduced the market's bet on a rate hike in the UK. The Fed's Taper has implemented that, while maintaining the policy interest rate unchanged, it will start Taper in late November and reduce monthly purchases of $15 billion, and will completely end its net purchase of new debt in mid-2022. Taper rhythm is in line with market expectations. Powell said after the meeting that the beginning of Taper does not mean to send a signal to raise interest rates. The Fed "can be patient" in terms of the timing of the interest rate hike, and emphasized that it is not time to raise interest rates. In terms of data, due to supply chain bottlenecks and logistics problems leading to soaring costs, the final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in October fell to 58.4, a record low since December 2020. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States was 269,000 in the week of October 30, a decline for five consecutive weeks. The non-agricultural employment population in the United States increased by 531,000 in October, far exceeding market expectations, the largest increase since July this year. The U.S. unemployment rate in October was 4.6%, better than market expectations and the lowest since March 2020. The better-than-expected performance of employment data eased market concerns about the state of the US labor market and boosted market interest rate hike expectations. The passage of Biden's $550 billion infrastructure bill will boost the U.S. economy, but the Democrats failed to vote on the $1.75 trillion tax and spending plan in the House of Representatives at the same time.
Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission website announced that the work of ensuring coal supply and price stabilization has achieved initial results, and the national coal supply and demand situation has improved significantly. According to market research, the wholesale price of No. 0 diesel in Hebei has dropped by more than 1,000 yuan per ton. In the third quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio fell by 0.6 percentage points, from 265.4% at the end of the second quarter to 264.8%. In the first three quarters, there was a decrease of 5.3 percentage points. From the perspective of deleveraging, the future macro leverage ratio will be mainly stable.
On the whole, the Bank of England issued a dovish signal on the macro front, the Fed’s Taper policy was implemented, and Powell’s speech was generally dovish. OPEC maintained its original production increase plan, Saudi Arabia raised oil prices, and Biden's 550 billion infrastructure bill was passed, supporting copper prices. However, US non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, boosting market interest rate hike expectations. From a fundamental point of view, the supply side continued to be disrupted. After the "golden September and silver October", weaker demand was manifested on the processing side. At the same time, copper scrap and inventories support copper prices. Before the inflection point of inventory appears, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: PTA: Zhejiang Petrochemical PX increased production load, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory to drive down processing fees.
Last Friday compared to this Friday, TA2201 closed at 4968 yuan/ton, compared with -188 yuan/ton the previous week. In terms of spot, PTA4883 yuan/ton, compared with last week -177 yuan/ton, TA basis difference -85 yuan/ton, compared with last week +15 yuan/ton, PTA processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, compared with last week -89 yuan/ Tons; PX 907 US dollars / ton, compared with last week -19 US dollars / ton, PX processing fee 141 US dollars / ton, compared with last week + 5 US dollars / ton.
In terms of PX supply, this week’s CCF’s PX Asia operating rate was 74.1% (+1.6%), and PX China’s operating rate was 71.7% (-1.2%). China's PX supply is expected to rise, and the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have increased the load, and the subsequent third line also has negative expectations. However, in the context of high oil prices, the adjustment items for oil adjustments are still high. Asia's PX accumulation rate from November to December is not large. At present, the low level of PX processing fee near US$140/ton has basically been compressed.
In terms of PTA supply, CCF’s PTA operating rate of 81.4% (-1.1%) this week is still at a high level. Hengli 3# 2.2 million tons of maintenance has been honored, but the total amount of phased maintenance is still not large, and the PTA processing fee has been compressed to around 500 yuan/ton, which is basically in place.
In general, although PX Zhejiang Petrochemical has expectations for subsequent increase in production load, the PX processing fee has dropped to a low level on the left, which is basically reflected in place. The current PTA maintenance level is still not much in November-December, and the recovery of polyester operating rate is still slow. It is expected that there will be accumulation of inventory in the future, but the PTA processing fee is basically compressed in place.
(1) PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.
(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.
Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
宏观方面，OPEC+产油国联盟坚持12月增产40万桶/日的原定计划，同时，据彭博消息，沙特阿拉伯12月将其主要阿拉伯轻质原油的价格定为每桶 2.70 美元的溢价，高于11月的1.30美元，超出市场预期。英国央行利率决议公布，维持关键利率和量化宽松目标不变。英国央行意外放鸽，大幅降低市场对英国加息的押注。美联储Taper靴子落地，在维持政策利率不变的情况下，从11月下旬开启Taper，每月减购150亿美元，将于2022年中旬彻底结束净购新债，Taper节奏符合市场预期。鲍威尔会后表示，开始Taper不意味着发出加息信号，在加息时间方面联储“可以有耐心”，并强调现在还不是加息的时候，鲍威尔表态整体偏鸽。数据方面，受供应链瓶颈和物流问题导致成本飙升，美国10月Markit制造业PMI终值降至58.4，创2020年12月份以来新低。美国10月30日当周首次申请失业救济人数26.9万人，连续五周下降。美国10月非农就业人口增加53.1万人，远超市场预期，创今年7月以来最大增幅。美国10月失业率为4.6%，好于市场预期，创2020年3月以来新低。就业数据的超预期表现，缓解市场对于美国劳动力市场状况的担忧，提振市场加息预期。拜登5500亿美元基建法案获得通过，将对美国经济起到促进作用，但民主党未能在众议院同时就1.75万亿美元的税收和支出计划进行投票。
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
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