Iron Ore: Short-term demand may pick up, but high inventory pressure is difficult to change.

Viewpoint and logic:

Today's main iron ore contract is still running weak, closing at 561 yuan/ton, and the lowest intraday price hit 550 yuan/ton, setting a new low for this contract. In terms of spot, the port spot of imported iron ore continued to fall in the afternoon, with a cumulative drop of 0-15 yuan/WT throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB powder reported 655-665 yuan/ WT, and SSF 395-400 yuan/ WT.

On the supply side, the total inventory of 45 ports this Monday was 14.9263 million tons, and last Monday figure was 146,496,300 tons. This week's port inventory increased by 2.767 million tons from the previous month. In terms of sub-regions, port inventories in all districts have increased. On the demand side, the secondary emergency response in Tangshan area was lifted, the weather improved, production restrictions and transportation restrictions eased, and short-term demand may pick up. Downstream, today's steel spot prices generally fell, of which the average spot price of thread fell by 41 yuan/ton, and the average price of hot coil fell by 42 yuan/ton. The national billet market dropped by 30-120 yuan /ton, and the overall market sentiment was weak.

On the whole, port inventory continues to accumulate, and high supply pressure is obvious. However, the relaxation of short-term production may help demand pick up, and the mentality of the spot market may improve slightly. On the other hand, the reduction in profits of steel mills has made it difficult to significantly improve production enthusiasm. In addition, today, the National Development and Reform Commission has vigorously promoted non-blast furnace ironmaking technology and promoted the all-scrap electric furnace process, which may bury long-term hidden dangers for iron ore demand.

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Port inventory continues to be destocked.

On November 9, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,925 (-60) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,400 (+25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -850 yuan/ton (-40); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 71,761 (-1,845) lots, the short position was 98,399 (-659) lots, and the net short position was 26,638 (+1,186) lots.

On November 9, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,085 (-60) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,710 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,710 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,675 (-10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -381 (-13) yuan/ton.

As of November 5: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 297,456 (+12,243) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 242,250 (+21,930) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.5 (0), cup lump 47.55 (+0.15), latex 52.3 (-0.5), RSS3 55.88 (-0.12).

As of November 4, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61% (+2.57%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.48% (+1.61%).

Opinion: The price of rubber continued to fluctuate within a narrow range yesterday, and the latest port inventory announced continued to destock. On the one hand, the number of arrivals to the port is still small, and on the other hand, the decline in port inventory last week has increased due to the increase in downstream purchases. The current rubber price operation logic is mainly on the supply side. As the weather in Thailand's main production areas improves and ocean freight rates continue to decline, domestic arrivals will gradually increase, which will weaken the support of the supply side of the rubber price in the early stage. The previous downward trend basically reflects the above changes, and the current demand side is in a stable state. It is expected that the short-term downside of rubber prices will be limited, and the upward drive still needs to wait. Investors are advised to wait for bargain-hunting opportunities after the market stabilizes.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The United States has not yet decided to release its strategic reserve stocks.

After the EIA report was released yesterday, the United States has not yet decided to release SPR. This is the second violation of market expectations after the OPEC meeting last week. The current situation of SPR is unclear, and oil prices have returned to their previous highs. If the United States does not rely on actual actions but guides the market through SPR expectations, it will not have the effect of restraining oil prices. We believe that the last two weeks will be the last time window for the US to release SPR. If the U.S. cannot achieve this, then oil prices will return to being dominated by fundamentals. The future winter temperature demand, the epidemic situation and the inventory situation will determine the future trend of oil prices.

Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent）

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: Coal prices have adjusted back again, affecting the overall sector prices.

Spot: According to SMM, as the main contracts of Shanghai Copper recovered overnight, the inter-month basis narrowed slightly to BACK400 yuan/ton, and holders returned to the supporting sentiment of the price, leading to the return of premiums and discounts in the spot market to the pattern of premiums. Standard-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton in the morning market. The market was still waiting for holders to lower their quotations after the stalemate as in the past. Although some holders slightly adjusted their prices to a premium of 80-90 yuan/ton, the number of inquiries increased significantly, and low-priced sources were quickly bought. After that, the holders re-tightened the price at a premium of around 100 yuan/ton, leaving almost no room for price reduction. High-Grade Copper quotes were differentiated. Guixi Copper holders maintained a high price supporting sentiment and offered a premium of 180-200 yuan/ton, but there were few transactions in the market. The quotations of other imported brands gradually increased from 140-150 yuan/ton to 160-180 yuan /ton. Compared with yesterday, the spread between High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper widened to around 80 yuan/ton, making the overall favor of yesterday less than the day before yesterday. Due to the scarcity of supply in the market for Hydro-Copper, the quotation quickly narrowed from a discount of around 100 yuan.

From a macro perspective, the US Energy Information Administration expects that Brent crude oil prices will fall in 2022 as oil production increases. At the same time, it slightly raised its crude oil price forecast for 2021, and generally maintained its oil price forecast for 2022 unchanged. The Biden government may announce the use of strategic oil reserves this week, while seeking other new government tools to stabilize oil prices. According to a Bloomberg report, Gazprom said it is launching a plan to start sending natural gas to five storage facilities in Europe in November to fulfill the promise made by Russian President Putin last month. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the US PPI in October increased by 8.6% year-on-year and 0.6 month-on-month, which was in line with expectations. From the perspective of sub-data, logistics and transportation, material shortages and rising labor costs have driven prices soaring in recent months. Supply chain problems are expected to continue until 2022, and rising production costs will cause prices to rise further in the future.

Domestically, due to the large-scale cold wave weather in recent days, rainfall or snowfall has occurred in many parts of China, and coal production and transportation have been affected to varying degrees. However, the National Development and Reform Commission recently made another move, showing a firm regulatory stance. The National Development and Reform Commission recently instructed Shanxi Province to issue a price-limiting order for the second time in nearly half a month.

On the whole, coal prices have adjusted back again, affecting the overall sector prices. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Processing fees have fallen.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical PX gradually increased its production load, and PX processing fees continued to be low.

(1) The production load has been reduced to 20% on November 8, and it is planned to start maintenance for 2 months on November 10.

(2) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the subsequent third production line is expected to increase the load, and the PX processing fee has been reduced to a low level on the left.

2. PTA continues the cycle of accumulating inventory.

(1) Hengli 3# 2.2 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical will be overhauled from November 5 to November 25.

(2) The PTA processing fee is once again reduced to around 500.

3. Filament production and sales are insipid.

(1) The production and sales remained stable at 55%.

(2) In October 2021, textile and apparel exports were 28.937 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 16.47%. Among them, textile exports were US$12.5 billion, an increase of 7.19%; clothing exports were US$16.437 billion, an increase of 24.68%.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：短期需求或有回暖，但高库存压力难改

观点和逻辑：

今日铁矿石主力合约依然偏弱运行，报收561元/吨，盘中最低触及550元/吨，创出此合约新低。现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货午后持跌运行，全天累计下跌0-15元/湿吨；现青岛港PB粉655-665元/湿吨，超特粉395-400元/湿吨。

供给端，本周一45港库存总量14926.3万吨，上周一14649.63万吨，本周港口库存环比增加276.67万吨，分区域来看，各区港口库存均有增量；需求端，唐山地区二级应急响应解除，天气好转，限产限运情况有所缓解，短期需求或有回暖；下游方面，今日钢材现货价格普跌，其中螺纹现货均价跌41元/吨，热卷跌42元/吨，全国钢坯市场降30-120元/吨，市场情绪整体偏弱。

综合来看，港口库存持续累库，高供给压力明显，但短期限产放松或有利于需求回暖，现货市场心态或将略有好转，另一方面，钢厂利润压缩生产积极性较难明显改观。另外，今日发改委再提大力推进非高炉炼铁技术，推进全废钢电炉工艺，或为铁矿需求埋下长期隐患。

策略：

单边：中期看空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：港口库存延续去化

9号，RU主力收盘13925（-60）元/吨，混合胶报价12400元/吨（+25），主力合约基差-850元/吨（-40）；前二十主力多头持仓71761（-1845），空头持仓98399（-659），净空持仓26638（+1186）。

9号，NR主力收盘价11085（-60）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1710（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1710美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1675（-10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-381（-13）元/吨。

截至11月5日：交易所总库存297456（+12243），交易所仓单242250（+21930）。

原料：生胶片52.5（0），杯胶47.55（+0.15），胶水52.3（-0.5），烟片55.88（-0.12）。

截止11月4日，国内全钢胎开工率为61%（+2.57%），国内半钢胎开工率为56.48%(+1.61%）。

观点：昨天胶价延续窄幅波动，公布的最新港口库存延续去化，一方面因到港量仍偏少，另一方面因下游拿货增加带来上周港口库存下降幅度有所增加。深浅色胶库存继续分化带来全乳与混合胶的价差近期继续缩窄。当前橡胶价格运行逻辑主要在供应端，随着泰国主产区天气的好转以及海运费的持续下降，国内到港量将逐步增加，使得前期胶价供应端的支撑减弱，前面这波下行中基本反映以上变化。目前需求端呈现稳定状态，供应因港口物流无法快速缓解使得深色胶依旧呈现偏紧格局，浅色胶则因国内产量增加，上行仍有压力。预计胶价短期下行有限，上行驱动还需等待。等待市场企稳后的逢低买入机会。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求示弱等。

原油：美国尚未决定释放战略储备库存

昨日EIA报告出炉之后，美国仍未决定释放SPR，这次是继上周欧佩克会议之后第二次放了市场鸽子，目前抛储已经成为狼来了的游戏，油价已经重新回到此前高点，美国如果不靠实际行动而是抛储预期来引导市场并不能起到抑制油价的效果，我们认为近两周是美国最后的抛储时间窗口，如果美国不能兑现，那么油价将会重新回到基本面主导，未来冬季气温需求，疫情形势，库存情况将会决定未来油价走势。

策略：中性，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：煤炭价格再度回调，影响整体板块价格

现货方面：据SMM讯，随着隔夜沪铜主力重心回暖，隔月基差小幅收窄至BACK400元/吨后持货商重回挺价情绪，导致现货市场升贴水重归升水格局。早市平水铜始报于升水100元/吨，市场仍在等待持货商如往日般的僵持过后的下调报价，虽有部分持货商小幅调价至升水80-90元/吨，但询盘者明显增多，低价货源很快被收，持货商重新将价格坚挺于升水100元/吨左右，几无压价空间。好铜报价则呈现差异化，贵溪铜持货商维持挺价情绪报于升水180-200元/吨，市场难闻成交，其余进口品牌则由升水140-150元/吨逐渐抬至升水160-180元/吨，由于跟昨日相比与平水铜价差有拉开至80元/吨附近，令昨日的整体青睐度不及前日。湿法铜由于市场货源稀缺，报价则由贴水百元附近快速收窄，几近平水。

宏观方面，美国能源信息署预计布伦特原油价格将在2022年随着石油增产而下跌，同时其略微上调了2021年原油价格预期，大体维持2022年油价预期不变，拜登政府此前面对OPEC+拒绝增产或将在本周宣布动用战略石油储备，同时寻求其他新的政府工具稳定油价。据彭博报道，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司表示，其正在启动一项计划，在11月开始向欧洲的五个储存设施输送天然气，以兑现俄罗斯总统普京上个月做出的承诺。美国劳工部数据显示，美国10月PPI同比增长8.6%，环比增长0.6，符合预期值。从分项数据来看，物流运输、材料短缺和劳动力成本上升推动近几个月来物价飙升。预计供应链问题将持续到2022年，生产成本上涨会导致未来物价进一步走高。

国内方面，因近日大范围寒潮天气，全国多地出现降雨或降雪，煤炭生产和运输均受不同程度影响。但国家发改委最近再度出手，展示了坚定的调控立场。发改委近日指示山西省近半个月内第二次发出限价令，山西国有煤矿5500大卡市场坑口价已腰斩，中煤集团全面下调港口和坑口动力煤售价。

整体看来，煤炭价格再度回调，影响整体板块价格。单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：加工费回落

一、PX加工费持续低位

（1）福建联合11.8降负至2成，计划11.10检修2个月。（2）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨。11月1日，浙石化PX两条线已提升负荷，PX供应量逐步回升，后续第三条线亦有提负预期，PX加工费已左侧压至低位。

二、PTA持续累库周期

（1）PTA加工费再度压缩至500附近。（2）恒力3#220万吨恒力石化11.5-11.25兑现检修

三、长丝产销一般

（1）长丝产销持稳在55%。（2）2021年10月纺织服装出口289.37亿美元，增长16.47%；其中纺织品出口125亿美元，增长7.19%；服装出口164.37亿美元，增长24.68%。

平衡表展望：PTA11-12月逐步进入累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：PTA及PX加工费基本压缩到位，原油基准预期回调有限，单边价格观望。（2）跨期套利：累库预期背景下，1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间。